Mostly SPX - some Comp …all timeframes from day trade to Secular trend .
- I will PIN the thread for the day so appears FIRST! AND SELECT NEW FIRST from dropdown …select 'new first' just above drop down, otherwsie Substack messes up the order of posts and u likely will miss newer ones!
- I will put comments for each day in replies to one thread per day - see yesterday...so that just have to find that days thread.
FRI OCT 13 - LAST POST to THIS THREAD! I will START NEW ONE at WEEKEND as this is super slow loading for me now...and maybe we'll do a new one per month or per week or something to avoid this issue!.
CRITICAL ACTION rest of today - if this is the 'pullback' then we finish at the highs and move up Monday....if we drop down again ..I think trouble is coming ..and there is a SIGNAL reason I will discuss below. Bonds - also got 'flight to safety' on the latest 'war' ... but it's not much ..shockingly little ...so unless that changes once this flight to safety ends ...then we finally move up probably a last time for now into the 50-55 area on tNX for a possible 5 of 5 high ...but one step at time ( ..there are other worse setups on that!).
Sentiment is a HUGE PRObLEM - my signals .. real $..show a MASSIVE CAPITULATION by Shorts last 2 sessions ...and worse, a flip to LONG ... i.e. there is a total consensus that 'the sept/Oct low is in, an now we get the end of year/xmas rally' ... and how nice of ALGO's to paint the perfect a-b-c low to 4200 @ 200dma ?! ...and 5 wave up off it .... hmm .... maybe ...but that is why I say a failure here is VERY DANGEROUS ...because if's the OBVIOUS is not obvious ... historically that is when I 've seen very fast/bad drops... price rules ..but this is important consideration ...
CLOSE - hmmmm... no big drop but a very sanguine close considering events and weekend ... that to me is bearish ..as I've said my data shows retail have bullish blinkers on here...maybe they are right ..or retail will get lucky like over the summer due to CB bailout yet again ( though how 'lucky' that turns out to be remains to be seen, since most of the retail $ on long side came in a prices ABOVE where we are..at or near)...and TA does support an IT low 'somewhat' ...but KEY MODEL DATA as I've said does NOT give its full support - its RISKY ...I would say VERY RISKY to be jumping in on this as retail have.
I will over at the weekend ..and likely post new video update ..but I can already see some big danger signals on LQ and price as well as the REAL$ data ....
I was thinking we drop hard ..a retest the recent low ...but infact this 'slip slide' is more dangerous ... MONDAY is now MASSIVE on IT and Bigger .very important session today that for my data leans us much more bearish ...moday is the kind of 'last save point' before a full retest and RISK Window opening wide.
Btw line - This is now a VERY INTERESTING MARKEt to me ...my 'gut' is this is not going to be a simple as most seem to think....and we are for me enteresting a really informative period on the bigger picture
HEADS UP - SPIDER SENSE SIGNAL -..its really just a lot of things but IF EVER there was an example of a PAINTED TAPE BULL TRAP laid for RETAIL ..this would be it for me ..I've listed some of it this AM .. but it's a lot of things .... one step at time ...but If we sell off hard all of sudden into the close....it will be big warning here to me...
FYI - SEEING the MOSt 'Top' calls in BONDS since the spring - the 'rates are going to fall' matrix output is same as was then ...this makes me question my 5 of 5 top for TNX etc ... one step at time ..but this is NOT what I expected art this point ..everytime we seeing any buying of bonds ..out come a gazzalllion top callers who have been wrong for 2 years ...literally ..I know a stopped clock is right twice a day...but its a CONCERN ..it really is !!
HEADS UP - this looks even MORE important to me now.
Yesterday I notice an intraday 'wave pattern anomaly' - we get these 'unnatural waves' often ..usually around genuine news event ...but they reverse ...this one didn't ...and I see another today.
I have joked...many times ..but its actually serious point - that if I see enough anomalies its an 'anomaly signal' - and has PRECEEDED OutLiER or 'against the normal' moves 100% of time!
- most of these turn out to be Central Bank interventions to UPSIDE due to some systematic issue
- Others to DOWNSIDE - occur as ALGO's 'force' the market down against the natural order ( retail. + others ALGOS ) ... and the ONLY ALGO's that are big enough to that ..is the CB ALGO or Da boys as we say ..and only when RETAIL are too one sided. (as now).
We shall see - one step at time ...but If I see more of this into the close today... II will be VERY suspicious of the action here.. I will say more if/when this occurs ...
Btw line - into the close today..the direction is now even more important ...if we see selling of spx down under 4300 ...triple HMMM in effect ...it 'shan't' happen based off 'natural order'
So - to be clear - what I have been saying ..and still true ..is there is a MUCH HIGHER RISK than 'normal' of an outlier type 'event' to downside in this period .... the risk rises if this obvious bounce off the 200 day MA fails ..and if retail buys into the obvious bounce there( check) .... now I look for 'signs' ...as above - and we can see obvious key levels
- spx drop under 4300 wd be big one
- but I think closes near lows instead of highs wd be as important
Got back from trip tue late and catching up work ...and markets here .. I will post something more at weekend but basically
- TOMORROW is a KEY DAY on read for the IT move
- For me -and its a game of odds let's remember, no one knows the future despite their b.s. claims:
- If we made an IT LOW ( the obvious wave 4) at the 200 day moving average ...then we do NOT pullback more here....and we POWER UP .
- - I we pullback ..and internals weaken ..and or price drops back under 4300 ..and or dither around up here but not take off ...then odds increase that its not 4 IT LOW --- and then ALL sort of FUN SETUPS are on the table ..especially if we then take out the 4200 area... I wd then see a massive Oct panic move down.
So ALOT on the line here ... I suspect...we get a bunch of indecision ...but this is good example of an area. (decision window) where it's better to let the market tell me - than tell the market.
BONDS - hmmm ..it looks DANGEROUS here ...for a EPIC BOND blow off ..but one step at a time ...but this is going to be a factor ...as MCHVIE in play with also dollar as we've seen recently..the cross correlations are getting stronger!
Thur Oct 5. - FYI - OUT on Grand Canyon hike Fri through Tuesday ..probably won't be in fit state to comment until wed-thru ...
CBOE put call Sky high into close and this AM - NOT NORMAL - the put call literally DOUBLED in ONE HOUR ..which is NOT RETAIL ... it's similar to BS we saw a few months back ..its NOT CONFIRMED by ISEE or Rydex or ANY OTHER DATA
So is this the fool proof BUY BUY BUY! ... Not for me ..the ONE thing I try to teach others who will listen (few) is DATA ALONE if WORTHLESS - its the QUALITY of the DATA that is key, otherwise its the old 'lies, damned lies & statistics' ...
UNLESS I see CONFIRMATION of data by other key sources ...if anything ..it could be 'false flag' so to speak... and yes, they really do that and are that 'evil' I'm afraid...seen it many times in 23 years of tracking most data.
My Price MODEL says IF we drop under 4100 for ANY reason ..the market is going to get a full blown MCHVIE ..even if it generates a massive fast rally first
ANd produce more churn/upside attempts within the corrective structure .. UNLESS we get a powerful closing upside impulse ..this high odds sets up a big down day tomorrow or early next week.
Ep. 27 Donald Trump appeared in court today, but it wasn’t a legal proceeding. It was a grotesque parody of the system our ancestors created. Victor Davis Hanson explains.
I posted a weekly update last night - hope u caught it.
Today - weak corrective bounce ..exactly NOT what I would see for forming a IT low ..we still have to tag 4200. ..and depending on any bounce off that ... odds increasing of a move down to 4150 or even 4100 in near term .
CBOE Data Games - too obvious LOL ..yep, so many shorts NOT! ( check ISEE, check any other data ..infact, this is likely bearish usually)
COmP - looks like today is minor 'c' up of a-b-c ..4th or just sub impulse of 3 ...so I'd look for comp to start to catchup to downside ...unless it morphs into bigger bounce.
TNX - yep minor pullback ..look for build for a blow of move to 50 area soon.
Test of 200 day SMA on SPX incoming ..close enough.
Comp is holding up ..I have a very clear and simple target there and NOT been reached yet.
SO I see a lower low still ...we are not quite done for the MINIMUM.
But the question for me all along has been -Will this just tag 200 SMA or something more? tbd but a lot leans to 'more' on the models right now ..but one step at a time ..the 'ideal' target converging on the math is 4150 area FWIW - then a IT bounce.
REAL TIME CLOSING CALL - My current Signals - NO ST LOW still ... WAY too much BTFD here ..not enough fear.infact now everyone's lining up too buy again ..RISK still HIGH on downside breakers as I listed earlier until that changes.
- I Want to see AM Real $ data ...to see if SHORTINg increased...but usually agree's with my ST signals...so if anything ..cd go wrong way.
^this is getting interesting! ... I think we are very close to POR day here...what will it take? a break of 4200 most likely ..and a panic down to4150 or even 4100 area.whilst TNX blows off toward 50.
I see constantly 'the bull market' - What does that actually mean?
->Can it be a bull market is it doesn't make new ATHs?
I guess it can - if after say 2009 low, we runup 50% and still below ATH ..it can a 'mini bull'.
I guess length of time is also an issue.
If this ends up being as my work sas a B wave - that fell well short of the recent ATH ..I can't really see that's a 'bull' ..we could say 'mini bull' - but this is why I prefer WAVE labelling ..it is less misleading .... I also could say Virtuous or Vicious cycle ...this also was neither of those.
I believe my call was correct - a B wave. ...unless it turns around a makes a run to ATH and then new ATH.
- lets see if we finally get a last hour carnage and closing puke ...almost NEVER see this due to amount of BTFD and ALGO saving
- I 'feel' the longer it takes to get a strong spike down ..the deeper down and risk of triggering lower run ....basedon signal and dynamic price model.
TO BE CLEAr - and I think I have been last few months and all year
- Investor Hat - > I will Not FRONT RUN an IT End of Year BOUNCE here until I see a great high odds setup with the I'd dotted and t's crossed ... yeah, I missed that FED sponsored runup..... no problem ..earning nice % in cash these days want for good setups ... its all pretty much been taken back here now....I have to follow the model win/loss and nothing is 100% ..FEd induced anomalies being the main 'losses' ( cash not really. a loss).
- because as I went over last 5 months RISK models show WAY too much downside risk ...until that changes, I'll pass....only take trades that have 2:1 or great in your favor end of story.
I
For Short Term traders - Swing type .. I'll make ca ll when I see the signals/setup ..not seeing it yet ..still missing pieces.
For 'day traders' - I give in these comments and things are really in sink last month...sometimes your in synch...sometimes your out wit that..how it is ..skill is knowing which your in! ...for now as synched as can be.
Comp - wave 5 ... 12900 down to 12800 ..below that and RTE move I've gone over.
Clues its an RTE
- the preceding summer clear Central Bank intervention to save bunch of banks which 99% time lead to RTE in reverse 'at some point' ( the hard part I think I nailed here)
- LQ drop and pattern
- too orderly leading to too much BTFD and lack of fear
We'll see ...whether 'they' ..ALGO's really ..want to play '4200 backtest of 200 SMA ' ...or we just instead we go straight into Oct panic ...tbd
Not even Govt Shut down averted 'news' optimism cd produce a bounce here ..so this support my work like week ( wed-fir comments.).
But One step at time is our mantra - SPX close to retest ...Comp holding up ...I think we'll continue the song and dance divergences until a 'resolution' ... which as said I expect to be down ..but let's see what this RETEST shows up here.
TNX /TLT - are edging into that parabolic breakout 3rd of 5 pattern ..yikes! ... really tracking it now.
FYI - I'm getting some signals ( imbalance) and setup (price fractal) seen before last roll over and hard drop.... interesting to see if this plays out again here... especially given that weekly setup potential drop.
* put it another way - if no big 'turn around tue' tomorrow, I strongly favor we drop hard ..probably coincidence again the bonds selling off ...clear MCHVIE now with USD ..( note.it doesn't make sense, u wd think selling US bonds by foreign banks=drop in dollar...but as I've n noted for 3+ years since I noticed it..it works the other way and means 'something really suspect is going on with how LQ works ..my foreign central bank theory FED is using)'.
So new Emergency signal - on CELL Phones ..and NOT even SILENT MODE will stop it !
- I literally laughed so hard I fell off a chair at this! ...
- Why don't FEMA aka east wing of the 'Globalist' just fly around in planes and drive cars with loud mega phones shouting FEAR FEAR ! Run for your LIVES! ...how transparent is their agenda at this point ..I imagine Wednesday will see car crashes and heart attacks of those unsuspecting of this...then as usual they can mar the death for any cause as 'COVID' to start a panic about that LOL .Oh My! the times we live in eh?
Today is about - WHERE IS CLOSED - for weekly and monthly ..and more that pattern I went over last night.
We had gap up - which was 'weird' - pained 5 up on comp? ...dow/spx corrective up on bounce.
So - now were in RETEST zone - as expected ...I won't pre judge it but just see what we get into close then Monday ....but as I went over, weakness today is bad omen mathematically.
BONds - I see all over the Matrix saying inflation dropping, economy booming, rates topping for Nth time ( heard this ALL YEAR LOL. ) - NONE of which is TRUE .
AND - I can't say details, but my job ..gives me massive insight into the economy ..and I can tell you, it's just gone over a CLIFF In the last month .... literally just hit a brick wall ...I don't know how long before this gets picked up in official data, maybe never LOL as its all fake like everything ..but the market isn't as stupid ...and will catchup to reality at same point ....so I'm even more certain of my recent call on market now ... never seen anything like this speed of 'trouble' ..the reasons I can talk about in detail at later point ... Moral Hazard of last few years is part of it...so people lacking understanding that Govt/FED can't always save them ....as they can't now. ..but they just kept spending and not changing finances ..and now are hitting the wall.
FYI - that WEEKLY CANDLE ...matches one for a bunch of 'analogs' I have for current setup ...and Open the Door is a HUGE DECLINE NEXT WEE K ..but for that setup to play out, I would say we have to drop from Monday and no large bounce from here ...so say
- Max 4340'ish to upside
- Ideally take out 4240 and into that gap mon-tue
- then take out 4200 swiftly
If we get that, I'll give a target based off multiple setups ..it wd be FUGLY
- 50% retracement of the initial reversal move (Up in this case)
- down to 100% or a slightly lower low ...down to 4220 gap close I wd say in. this case.
Anything Lower than that, and door opens to NOT a retest.
Also a secondary up move off it, would need to be much stronger ...and confirm on the ST model...this move is not great there, it reset to ST sell ... but one step at time.
Yep - very 4th wave 'y ..if there is so a thing :-)
Tomorrow is last day of Month ..so look for any remaining strength to come ...best will do is probably more sideways with 'threat' of upside move ..as ST signals reset to sell
to be clear I am of the view that
- a quick retest here of 4200-4220 ( gap close) cd be 4.5.C and then a swing up ..(though I think it likely fails well short of the recent B wave highs)
- but a longer 'slope of hope' bounce here ..will setup up a potential BREAK of that key zone in Oct.
IF its the 4..5 retest...really need to happen by monday maybe tue at latest.
A failure to retest that goes longer than tue ..wd move us to 2nd setup.
Fast and furious relief/Retail trigger happy BTFD mode bounce here.
If it's wave 4 ..it tops around this gap close 4320 area ... then churns or reveres here.
If it goes higher than day 4340 its not 4 ..and we get that hourly swing up into EOM and retail trap in my view setting up a potential October panic move down.
DOW clearly a-b-c up off the low ...spx very high prob' and comp also ...
So now just question of seeing what GAMES into EOM and how silly and complicated the ALGO's can make this ... the 'FLOW/ENTROPY' here is (.and this is purely a 'read of the tape' from experience ..I cd be wrong ) showing DRAINING LQ ...so I think...it will be. struggle even into EOM to hold this up.
* also the MCHVIE ( mass correlated hyper volatility event) signature here ..very early..but STRONG ...is extremely clear this down move is being driven by ALGO's - and I saw that MAJOR DISTRIBTION SIGNAL I posted on the Prior Sunup - these are all very negative 'tape' signs - I cd be wrong.
4240 - some sort of Low? ,,meh ...not too convincing to me..tomorrow open will be a tell on that..gap up and run ...or bust ... either way, we didn't get high odds signals for SWing low..so I wd only see a ST bounce.
I think we'll dither in this mega BTFD zone ..then drop to 4200 ...the only issue is EOM ..which 99% time produces upside for 1-2 days min ...so MAYBE we can get the bounce off from here ...but for me, that wd be WORST CASE for Swing up platfor ..and open door to failure through 4200 in oct
IF it bounces tomorrow - I look to me, completed a iii of ? ...and now in a iv or 4 depending on how u look at it ...but that wd favor still at least one more down leg
The problem is - yeah, it looks like AB - now C as I had ....but the MOdels don't agree...and the signals/model are predictive ..the counts are just label 'best fit'.
STEADY BTFD showing on the Imbalance signals .....this is being sold into by ALGO's producing slow grind down now .... either ends with exhaustion or flush ....
- 4250 low and GAP BELOW @ 4240 to 4220 ..now a MAGNET
- which then makes 4200 area 200dma Magnet.
LQ is now dropping ...so more and more looks an RTE move.
TO get a SWing or 'hourly swing proprer multi day bounce - we 'll likely need FEAR to SPIKE up ...isn't always the case...but looks it here....we will see .. a bounce without fear will open the door to OCt panic under 4200 area.
almost everyone I am reading tonight calling a bottom here - I think we need to gap down again in the morning and run toward the 200-day MA (4,194) now to flush out the remaining bullish sentiment - a bounce here and I am thinking we may have to then go below the 200-day MA
Indeed - I don't have said have the usual signals for a swing low here....definitely not IT low..which is what it would need to be ... I don't see anything but a very short term bounce holding before 4200 area...then , we'll see ...will likely depend on fear...which is my signals and ur reading around agree's is turning more and more bullish instead of fearful...4200 infact likely won't be enough...i'm leaning toward 3900 in an October panic...but one step at time.
NICE! - sometimes wave stuff works and sometimes it doesn't ..this one was literally perfect for C down....but NOW we see ...is it 'just' C down ...or RTE move as i've gone over at length.
I suspect we get some bottoming action and attempt to bounce in this area ...but trying to play a bounce here is a risky scenario ...because RTE moves don't respect rules ..just as didn't back in summer on way up.
The action by end of day might give me enough information to judge ....
HEAD UP - also, my key sentiment data is going WRONG WAY and is ALARMING! ...so whatever we get ST ...I am looking for the tag down to 4200 area even if it takes in mid-end of Oct.
TNX - 46 is area if 'might back test...but also as mentioned has parabolic blow off pattern ..so tbd
HEADS UP - well, 'anything' is possible in markets..in a sense...but I can say FACTUALLY that
- BULL MARKETS do NOT sHOW the PRICE BEHAVOur we have here ...so
- either this is NOT a bull market OR
- is a unique bull market ...
The High odds play is factually, that this is either a Bear market rally (B wave) that is either Done now new bear leg, potentially C down ...OR still completing B wave.
This has been my belief for entire Bounce ..and now price has confirmed it ..
YIKES - my sentiment data showing Retail fell for it hook, line and sinker ...i'm seeing increasing BTFD .. so the 'All in bull trap' is ON here now ...its a question of if 'they' want to execute it ..of course they do! LOL .. last hour here is setup for a major panic ...but well see if a Save come 4260'ish
USD - Yep .. it will get a pullback which we can try to time/link to stocks & TNX ..they are all in MCHIE zone now.
TNX - 46 better produce a sharp backtest...or the parabolic breakout is on ..and my long term final target are 55 + ...i;ll re llook at this week ....but as i've said for year + ..the plan is to force rates up to break the credit system ... probably NOT the final blow ..but a fatal one for sure....
LAST VIdeo update- few weeks ago .. II j ust reviewed it.... nailed that one pretty good ..but I reallt need to update here this week/weekend ...now we got this as expected...
ST here - NOt seeing FEAR spike ..vix too low, trin too low ..imbalance more BTFD ...so RISK of RTE .... there a gap magnet coming into view fast here also
SHORT TERM - I think the POR is around 4260 ...so either we spike up da' fear into a swing low here...or just crater to 4200 now ....I can't see until I see real time decision data ...nothing yet for a swing low as per signals I posted last night and many others I look at...but can change fast in this zone.
NOw - IF Fear and signals to NOT spike up ..and we crater to 4200 ...I'm assuming we get a panic POR there ....if not ...this is MORE than the RTE take back ..and I will look at that scenario this week ...I STILL hang to a final IT up move as xmas up move from an Oct type low ..but as I saidf weeks ago, a much LOWER HIGH on the cards '...so for me its all about figuring this IT low... I don't see us close yet..way too many missing signals bar as said unexpected CB save.
YEAH FYI - I just ran those numbers on the Price model ..there is not much below 4200..well zones are
- Swing support 4260+-10
- IT support 4175-4220
- Cycle support 3900-3950
SO a true OCt panic wd see a tag to 3900 area....the DAX is showing this pattern setup the best.
tbd
* I ONE STRIKE AGAINST a panic ...is that I didn't get the KEY VIX signals I've seen before ALL the recent panics 2018, 2020 and 2007/2008 ....which I am damn sure is an INSIDER signal ...don't have it here...but nothing is 100% ...one step at time.
Im quite EXCITED by the market setup here As I have a number of pretty amazing ANALOGS ..some fractals some other mode to price ..that are in play here ...really nice road maps .. we are in critical zone here now to see just how close we're following ... I will not JINX by opening my big mouth and posting them YET ..but my 'spider sense' is tingling lets put it that way .. finally my models and read have synched up perfectly ( as usual once CB off tape ..) ..I just hoping there is no more systemic issue forcing CB override ... I'm guessing it would need to be somethinh new ..because they have the collapsing commerical banks under control. ( well, the PLANNED this ..to bankrupt the smaller commericals to centralize bankings into a few big commercials that the CB can they control as proxies ...for down the road ..for brining in CASHLESS system ..phase 1 ..credit or digitial 'cash' apps..no paper by say 2030 ... phase 2 .. CBDC's but won't bring that in first I think...they will need the next engineered global crises for that)
But it u want a simple idea of road map - just look at top at end of 2021/into 2022 ..and this has massive analogs to that here. ..but there are some more detailed ones I have to use as swing/IT road maps.
Sorry weekend got busy - I am training again for a Grand Canyon hike..each one is more/tougher than last ..this one is FIVE days and toally off the main trails ...so my whole sat was spent hiking ...then I had to cathup finally with Will of Freedom Canada ..... and spend some time with the wife ..... I desperately want to post ALOT of stuff ... but time is just in short supply.
BUt - no real change to what I went over last few weeks and in alot of detail ...
So TNX continous the expected and much forecast by me breakout ... I still think we'll likely get a backtest ..but it 'depends' ... because the pattern is also one i've seen many time into slow burning parabolic break away ...tbd
Stocks - I went over all this in detail - basically 4300 HAS to HOLD ..and also must kinda V uP right here this week - sorry I want to show the price signal its great on this one ..and very clear ...so this is a really high odds pattern to watch here ....next few sessions.
Sentiment continous to be wrong for a Low - and I noticed Matrix was out PsyOping that 'shorts are piling in' which totally false ...so that's another big warning here .
Lets see what we get today ..if a bounce can stick and get legs....
There a few 'fun' charts I will try to post time allowing.
Short Term - this is CORRECTIVE BOUNCE again ..so logically ..barring a 'save'... we're going to get a lower low .toward 4280 MAGNET/TAG zone ..for complete 'C' ...
- whilst we likely BOUNCE there ..I believe it will be another trap
Very high odds in some sort of 4th type wave here (ab- now in c up of it ..flattish ) - so choppy/sideways then DOWN ...either FAST ..cd be gap down to 4280'ish ...or choppy (terminal) over next few days..
THEN ODDS increase of LONGER/BIGGER BOUNCE - ...into end of week End of MONTH usual strength ...then a pluge down to 4200 200sma in Oct ...but a rough road map subject to new info'.
All I know is the DAta I follow, which is yet to be wrong.. says the OPPOSITE ..literally no shorting ..at least from Retail.
HEADS UP - Also , and this is IMPORTANT ...is I've noticed since the summer and the CB intervention ..that most Sentiment data has become Uselss and acting weird ..CBOE for sure and the end of day nonsense .. I've seen this movie before BTW.
- So I stopped using most of it AND
- Just follow a narrow set but which is VERY reliable and totally ignore the rest..because i'm 99% certain is now just being used again retail
There is certain data that I have that is yet to be wrong....so until that happens I will follow that and ignore the rest .... and it says for CErtain here
- we have DISTRIBUTION and the RETAIL in BTFD mode here ...as I said quite surprising given time of year ...but I don't try to uncderstand the 'why' ..but Matrix output like this is likely reason plus the 2023 will be up year ..and Xmas rally front running which is why
AND this ...which is Matrix Market watch I admit...but still...its 'analysis' is level of 3year old s with crayons ...can't believe someone got this published..oh wait, yes i can LOL
ANd TO BE CLEAR - and if u didn't follow my work the last week
- I am expecting 4300 to FAIL and us to get a 'shock' move I call RTE( its the pay back for the CB intervention in the summer) ...and fast drop to the 200 day Simple Moving Av. around 4200.
But we go one step at time ..confirmation of that will be a failure to V up right here.
* the PATH to get there though cd be convoluted ...
HEADS UP - we are in some VERY important Short Term action here .. I spent ALOT of time yesterday looking over entire signal set/model and price patterns and on GLOBAL indexes - and its SHIFTED my VIEW a BIT - I think this looks MORe DANGEROUS HERE than I thought.... I'd say the odds of that LAST IT UP MOVE -certainly on many indexes is LESS NOW than I was looking for ...BUT
- what happens here today, and next week is going to INFORM the bigger picture ..sometimes 'informaiton' ripples Down from higher trend to lower but sometimes UP ..as here.
We 'shd' be as I went over in some sort of 4 or iv of C down ...whatever label u want ...a 'bounce' that retests the low or makes slightly lower low - but I do feel 4300 HAS TO HOLD for the 'one last IT up move' at least to make 'new high' on main indexes. ( the why is complex).
I'm just much less convinced here its going to hold ...but one step at time ... today might give info, but cd be need to see also next week.
BOND - looks bad, this little pull back is NOT what those wanting a reversal wd want ...this looks more and more like its going to get a breakway gap IF we backfill yesterddays break out .... infact, I think massive trouble is coming in inflation and bonds ..but i've gone over this ..so no n eed to repeat .
Senitment is now also going 'wrong' but hte bullish case... i'm seeing shocking for Sept real $ signals ...normally retail are fearful in this period ..instead, they are loading up for the Xmas rally already ..yikes! ...they had better hope the ALGO's don't sell us down through 4300.
FYI - the NIKKEI and DAX Primary Cycle Wave pattern is SO CLEAR and TERRIFYING .. confirming my super cycle termination count .. -
- Even in the most bullish fever dream ...we would have a low odds chance of over 1-3 more year of a choppy labored period sort of like 1968-1973 ....BUT
Eventually this setup is so High odds that we are close to Super Cycle termination ...i..e a depression unlike anything we've seen ..certainly since 1930's ...
The BOX and REALITY confirm this unfortunately - the PTB can play around, delay, delude, fake reality for months ..even a few years ...but its like a drowning man ..eventually the financial system is going over a cliff here no matter what ...I';m utterly amazed how few can see this, given how blindling obvious it is ...just even looking at simple math/reality of debt/credit/consumers....but part of this period is MASS PSYCHOSIS/ZOMBIE LIKE STATE that has been induced in mass of population ..so, infact, not surprising at all.
HMMM - Every time I see DIP BUYING on the imbalance signal ..the ALGO's are selling now ..that's a BIG change ...preceeding this swing down I also saw one of biggest Buying SPIKES i've Ever seen! ....double hmm. I also as I posted saw very clear distribution preceeding this drop .
Well, one step at time ...but that bounce didn't last ..if we sell off into the close I think we (well, the market ) is in some trouble here.
I need to get a mouse for my laptop so I can post charts on it, too difficult with touch pad alas.
YEAH that WEEKLY CLOSE is very risky - there is a pattern on my PRICE model ...well, lets just say...ANY more downside next week ..lets saty 4300 MAX for intraday move ...and no lower closing low or it will trigger a high odds Major reversal ...call it a bear, call it a vicious cycle ..call an longer term IT drop ....whatever the words... this Price signal will fire if those conditions met ...and honestly, its hard to see how they won't be ...I don't see anything hefre to suggest otherwise. ,,,, its sort of surprising ..but also not to me for reasons i've gone over
- I suspect ...that the ALGO's will 'dangle the everyone expects/know' 4th wave ABC type move here...and whatever games that keep everyone bulled up and in - then we'll get a 'surprise' drop under 4280 ..and plunge to the 200dma around 4200 ....then bounce ....and get 'dangled' again into Oct low for the Xmas rally ...and so on ...but it is far less likely now ..that we will then get a 5th fiinal up move ot new highs.
- all subject to new information ..as per one step at time ..but if next week breaks those levels...i'd be very strongly in the 'no more new highs' camp ..and RISK that infact, we don't even get the 'Dangle ' move up into Xmas ...but just distribution instead .
We know - Think like the Criminals .. Here is what the criminals know- DID and I'll use SPX
- we Dangled below 4200 for SIX MONTHS ...
- then Banks collapsed ...which no doubt they knew was coming aka CB bailout and market goosage and positioned for it
- Rode it up on backs of RETAIL CHASING the CB Save ..
- NOW they are DIstributing as I said HEAVILY BEFORE and INTO the last up move and initial down move and are OUT
- Leaving RETAIL DOUBLED DOWN LONG from Above 4200
So with Criminal Hat on - Its obvious to m e...that 4200-4300 will be the 'bag'em zone' ..where ALGO's will play with retail with a Slope of HOpe ...UNTIL the REAL DOWN move is ready so
- ONCE we go under 4200 again ...I think it collapse very fast ..there maytbe ONE spike back up there just ot backsweep ... but then we collapse
Assuming - the trap is set etc ..
Obviously - this is a road map over next 2-3 months ..but I just want to say what I'm thinking ...but NExt week shd add alot of information to this 'working hypothesis'
That was a tehnically damaging daily and weekly close ... I need to look over eveything but the RISK-O-METER is as I said moving higher and now in the 'red zone'....all it would take here is a NUDGE ..a gap down say under 4280 and this market will be in DEEP TROUBLE.
AND Oh Boy - the CREDIt SIGNALS are NOT giving expected BUY here ...just the opposite ..this looks very RTE to the summer CB move to me ..I cd be wrong...but these signals are acting same way just opposite to that period.
Perfect - exactly as i expected ..based on clear setup of data, signals model I went over.
* this implies CB also believe its time to 'let things be natural and RTE possibly from their prior summer 'save' ' ...we shall see.
TNX breakout
SPX gap through 4400 to next target 4340
Then as I laid out, we're at a 'we'll see' zone again....I still lean we're going to break through toward that C wave target ...and possible RTE event.
There is a RARE SPIKE UP in the RISK of a DOWNSIDE EVENT here ... call it what u want, but quite a few warnings flashings ..so other key ones missing namely on VIX.
There's some really troubling data on LQ for a start, that makes it low odds we are at/near that IT low ... that's is a problem.... the credit model is a problem also.
It looks to me, that we'd need quite bit more TIME here to make that 'last IT up move' sustainable ..I warned weeks back the latest up move was likely to retest based on model...and it definitely starting to re-synch on all timeframes now the latest CB bs-a-thon to force that breakout above 4200 is over ....we are now only 3% above it ..with Retail 'doubling down' on longs etc .. that has to be very juicy fruit for the Algo's ...but we'll see.
Tomorrow shd as said be very informative on the IT timeframe.
ALSO the DOW is ironically the most important right now on BIG picture
- if it drops any further ..on closing and especially Weekly tomorrow ..then it
technically will give a completed B ( I posted this months ago) and now in 1 ..2..3 beginning down ( or possibly large C not 3) ..but it won't 'need' that last IT upmove for 'completeness' ( not that its guaranteed on Comp/Spx as i've gone over ..but patterns there wd be as said 'irregular' )
This wd makes some sense ..as consumer economy is first domino to fall ther e..its falling now...BUT also ironically, I believe that once this gets going ...2024 or maybe also 2025/26 that Tech is going to get destroyed this time ..law of Alternation to 2008.
Hey and special thanks to the CB for that summer intervention - everytime they do it, it's another 'data point' that allows me to test/improve the model further ....though, I still don't see how they did it...or more accurately almost nothing in the model which literally has all public data shows the 'how' ...except as I went over the Credit model..so i've elevated that data in the model - I hope to have time this weekend to do video TA and i'll be sure to reshow the key credit signal from that. I wish I could figure out a the 'new magic' ...but I guess its pointless, because, they will just find another and another ...this is clear until the day they decide its time to NOT save it ( banks in this case) ... so the only important signals is
- IF banks or major financial entity is failing = CB will bail it out leading to 'upward simulation' in stocks ... but now at price of delayed upward move in Rates. ..again, until the EVENT day that is probably now penned in on the PTB's calendar ...ur guess is as good as mine when ...all I say is, its sometime before 2035 ...probably before 2030 ..and for all we know its next week LOL ( though I don't think so) ...As much as they will hide it from the masses I know from ALL gthe PAST PLANNED events 2008 and 2020 for sure, that a certain 'Insider signal' clearly shows up on the VIX ...and I see no sign of it yet .
YEP - TOMORROW ( weekly close) is going ot be a HUGE TELL for me on the price models .and alot else ...to determine is this
- just C down ... defnitely it now at miinum ..coming in at or near todays low with strong bounce tomororow ..or far more likley bunch of bottoming action down to 4300 or even 4280 'ideal' - but i feel that is so close then to 200dma that it would be magnet ..so C wd need to come in 4300 or higher to avoid that pull
- OR my RTE move ...for which I can't yet give downside target but most likely a test of 200dma at minimum ..running around 4200'ish
THen we have the TNX move i'd gone on about for months...that will play a factor in which of these
I'm watching carefull reaction @ 4330-4345 zone .. some ST signals on buy ....but alot of Swing signals remain strongly sell ...so this will determine which Trend is dominant ..shorter or longer term ...the C wave count wd say longer ..and we slice straight down toward 4300 without any sustained bounces ...but this is important decision window.
Refer to yesterdays charts/pivots etc - for next 2-3 sessions ...were in the latest FED 'Monte Carlo Simulation' ..after that ..were likely to get one more drop as said in period into End of Sept (proably a ramp into EOM as usual) and sometime in OCT ...into another IT type runup which ad naseum i've gone over .....
- there is NOTHING the FED can say or do to change anything here SO
- whatever happens is just as said 'simulaiton'
- THEN we get likely natural paterns finish playing out into OCt.
TNX is just ready to bust out here ...barring more games this week first.
Show me Any time in last 25 years of major crashes and bears that the FED said 'we going down hard' LOL
The Economic 'data' is as reliable as a Pharma 'Study' :-)
I can tell you for certain - the cost of Living burden on 80% of population is highest in my lifetime right now ... most have burned through saving, maxed out credit cards, now carrying high debt at highest rates and unlike past they won't come back fast even once the recession starts .... AND THAT is what will turn the 'soft' into 'hard' ..the fact this time rates are going to not collapse, that inflation is going to be 'sticky' ...and that of course, the credit bubbles will implode and CB only have one trick ...a trick which this time will be less effective .... add in Biden spending into election year as well ...
POR INBOUND I believe the 'real world' ( as much as we can call it that...given the amount of Social Engineering and Matrix) ... is AT or VERY CLOSE to the POINT of RECOGNITION here ... its identical in my experience to what I observated around July Aug of 2007 FWIW ... only more extreme ...I have much better insider info now with network I now have ...can't say too much...but I have really good data and contacts ...the shit is starting to hit fan BIGTIME ..and is going to rapidly get worse into EOY from here.
At what point market senses this ..and has POR of its own ..I think is CLOSE ..as said next few months..and how much FED conitnue to play God in short term support like summer whne shit happens.
CB's either let the market crash, i.e., seek it's natural level, and in turn save the bond market or the keep trying to hold the market up and $TNX runs to 5%+ - here we are - no more room to maneuver
We are seeing bounce everytime my key Scalp signal goes to buy - i'll post a chart of it later it hard to post charts on my laptop from my office .... but its very clear .. and ..I don't think that bullish ... as its sort of RTM and never getting 'extreme' ....
but 'we'll see' over next 2-3 sessions ...probably alot of volatility ..like this ..fast spikes up ..grind down is my guess...then an eventual big impulse down to targets ...timing is difficult to say though
HEADS UP - we have a really good (high odds ) setup for a fast drop here post FED ..signals, waves, model all agree - BUT of course, its the FED..and whatever games they want to play...but without a doubt, the NATURAL order here is a strong impulse down to 4400 and probably much lower.
- so some road map targets I see IF the CB don't override
- 4400 min
- 4340 retest of recent low
- 4280 C wave target zone...
I also see a fractal and potential on DOW for a BIGGER move down here IF it gets going ...so if we trip the 1st pivot ..odds will increase of moving to next and so on ...if we get down 4280 I cd then see an 'overshoot' fat tail move to say 4200 area (200 sma) ....Such a move wd fit my RTE and also lets call a HUNCH ( experienced based judgement from alot data) .... I'd be looking then for ONE more IT up move...into Nov ...but it will be final high and likely short of highs ( truncation).
IF somehow the CB press the 'lets party' button ...then its going to be a mess again ..as natural forces and CB forces go on/off ..at this point in the Cycle ...it leads to FAST PIVOTS and hard ST moves to call ....hoping that does NOT happen ..as the 'natural pattern' setup is so clear ...
HEADS UP - ALSO its clear INFLATION is TICKING UP again ...so the FAT LADY is ABOUT to SING on this whole DEBARCLE ... this will be clear from TNX finally breaking out ( the real tell) no matter what PSy OPs the FED spouts this week as usual .... data doesn't lie ...we are in BIG TROUBLE now ( as of course planned ) ....CRB is taking off ...2nd derivative (rate of change) data on inflation is moving up FAST after drop into June ....so now FED are WAY BEHIND again ..... so like 2022 ...we'll see BOND market telegraph is with breakout shortly ... then FED will eventually have to raise again ..I think this time OVER DO it . ( as planned) ...and this credit bubble already on last legs this will be FINAL BLOW...consumer recession inbound in 2024 unless Biden et al hand out 10K checks to everyone ...which ..well...is possible LOL ... but then inflation will go higher, rates even higher ...and wd just DELAY then makes worse ....hence we cannot 100% predict ...but I think its unlikely such insanity occurs ...i'd like to think anyway :-)
DISTRIBUTION is taking place on the last up swing and now ...VERY CLEAR on my signals
ODDS are still HIGH - that we get 'some sort of last IT up move' ...but question is 'from where' and 'to where' ... this what were trying to pin down ...increasingly to me ..am looking for both to be 'lower' than the previous possible higher zones.
AS i've said...I stgrongly believe were in PROCESS of MAJOR TOPPING here into Nov/Dec ...topping is often a complex process ...I think this one will be for sure...similar to 2000 and 2007. ( and following very similar wave partterns to 1966-69 and 1970-74 ..which makes some sense )
* Bulls can 'sleep easy' on this UNLESS we get a WEEKLY CLOSE under 4350 ..that wd shift the odds considerably .... shd get some answer next couple weeks and in Oct.
STILL seeing IMPULSVE waves down .. so along with signsls/model ...so no change ...watch 4400 before/after FED ... I think unless we see a strong UP impulse post FED ..that we are as said going to break that pviot down and go into a fast strong impulse to downside targets...only a CB 'button press' will stop it ..it's possible as always but seem less likely than normal here... I cd b wrong :-)
PHEW - had major computer problem this week, my main computer crashed ..and hardest problem to fix I've ever had ...and i've had alot since i've been using/programming computer since 1980'ish !
Call me conspiracy nut ..but strangely i noticed alot of tech problems all over the place this week .hope it wasn't a 'test' nudge nudge ..nah.
Well, I finally got it solved - can't even say exactly ...but as usual it started with a Window 10 Update ...that 'somehow' corrupt my BIOS settings AND removed or corrupted 8 device drivers including my screen resulting in startup showing almost random results - either a bios Hard disk failure, or nothing just a black screen with not even BIOS options.
I eventually got a recovery USB - tested all hardware as OK ..and was able to restore the boot sector to the disk ..and restore the drivers .... fun!
At least my machine is actually now running great . :-) I will assume it was just an 'random probllem' but if I start hearing about widespread computer issues ...i'll will go 'hmmmm'. I'm just lucky to have the computer skills to solve things ... this was definitely a tough one.
OK - so I hope to get to some market stuff today now I have it up and some time!
OH - and talking of computer issues ..this substack thread is getting very slow for me ..so might add new one next week..I will post a warning & link if I do!
SORRY - likely won't get to this today ...I want to do the REALLY BIG PICTURE and COUNTs I promissed months ago ..as its important context ... I LOST that DATA on the computer issue ..but I RECREATED TODAY!! ...but by time I had ran out of time to make new video .. I am pretty certain i'll get time this week or if not next weekend ... I am looking forward to covering it as I think its REALLY interesting. ...short version - look at 1966-1969 period ..price patterns is an really close match I think ... doesn't mean as said the OUTCOME wd be the same on longer term, but pretty close to my expectations on 1-2 year timeframe.
Any way - lets see what new information we get on TNX , USD, and SPX next week ...i've gone over my thought at length so won't repeat.
- Bonds ..no change to previous setup ..basing..and I look for 'breakout' to upside on TNX next week ..likely to see some 'mild panic' in stock on that...but as said, likely then it reverses and more games.for a bit before the REAL breakout in TNX .... though, it cd just fly.
- Stocks - clear to me, some major 'support' holding up the down pattern ..its resulted in a clear 'a-b-c up corrective off the recent drop .... this means we cd be in a long, slow, complex B wave...but near term: -
SPx 4400 cash is target next few sessions..cd be fast or take all next week.......then 'well see' if it bounces up again there ..then .it s the long B wave ..But if it drops through, its the C down now ..
Sentiment is strangely overly bullish for Sept on my data .. not sure why, but data doesn't lie.
ODD gap up ..looks DOLLAR related ( sharp drop) ..but Highly corrective pattern ..only see two high odds setups
- in ii of C down Or
- in 'e' of B up
Both ultimately bearish ..one just taking longer than the other ..shd know by wednesday.
TUE - Sept 12 thread as well - as still on same themes!!
* The ONLY bullish 'count' is a good example of UNORTHODOX pattern i discussed at weekend - that fri low (which didn't even retest) was a 'truncated minor c' of abc off the recent move up ..as 'ii' now iii up ...nothing impossible //I mean aparently NOTHING with CB's involved ..the 'count' then is b.s. really, because in natural markets there is a close to ZERO PROBABITY of such a pattern ..its simply putting a label on something for sake of it .... our market = Natural patterns for periods, then totally unnatural when CB or big players distort it ..and on ANY timeframe these days... just how it is...so can 'never say never'.
HEADS UP - Here is a clear statement of my 'belief' and 'position' ..just in case it wasn't clear..even though i've been consistent on for 2+ years and probaby longer!
I AM AS CERTAIN AS I have EVER BEEN .that we are in the FINAL WAVES of the SECULAR BULL WAVE from 2009 ...with the wave from 2009- now being a PRIMARY FIVE ...of the SUPERCYCLE from 1937;ish
NOW, whether we end up calling 2021 HIgh as the 'final up move' then A down to Oct 2022 and up now in B ... OR this is infact still the final '5 of 5' ...which currently is in 4th of 5 of 5 with one more up move ...is KINDA MOOT on BIG PCITURE ...and frankly given what's at stake once this terminates ...its of little important to me personally
- That is, as I see extremely high odds of a 'double top' OR 'lower secondary top' here over next 1-3 month that will bring in a SECULAr BEAR period the likes of which has not been seen EVER most likely...how is plays out no one can know ...and I don't see any good analogous periods to what will occur so .
If i'm wrong..i'm wrong...I literally cannot see it as i've said since late 2020 when I called that top ..not wrong yet... I cd be ...but my view is even stronger NOw than then based on the data and reasoning.
NOW - that said ...ONE thing I ALSO know to be TRUE -> we won't end this game until RETAIL is both
- on the wrong side ( fully long ) - they never left fully long, and have double down so CHECK that one AND
- FULLY TRAINED - to not get out ..and buy the 'DIPS' ...this was probably in 2022 ..too many traders were selling ( not investor, they talked bearish but never quit the market) ...AND
- CB stop saving it due to 'end of the world' - this was big save again this summer due to massive bank failures which it seems are continuing behind the scenes
SO as kids on the long car ride like to say 'Are we there yet?' -
- truthfully ..I do not know ...the bank stuff is by far biggest factor clearly last few months....there is other smaller factors like 2024 election and FED 'neuatrlity' bla bla.
I really believe only ONE of TWO road maps from here - I just don't yet know which
1. We get a long period of up/down to marginal new move since Oct ...call it a '5th' PAST the Sept/OVt FEAR period for trained monkey s..then like 2000 the TOP comes Nov.Dec as the 'fear' passes ...I do see alot of rhymes to 1999/2000
OR
2. We Get a UNORTHODOX TOP ...confounding ...that doesn't fit anything ...and infact, i've noticed on smaller timeframe this occurs MORE OFTEN than 'orrhodox/text book' - because market is 'designed' or 'efficient' ... to screw Short term traders on every timeframe ....but doesn't happen as much out past SWing/IT to bigger ....but we did see this in 2007 ......so some sorta 2000/2007 topping Hocus Pocus in my 2nd best 'guess' here.
Not into this TOXIC MIX - is Bonds and $ which i've been pretty dead on ..and I still look for that TNX final up move and credit bubble popping event ...in this period.
Could the CB stave this off and pull another 2020? ...not through QE but for sure they have found a new trick with the banks.....but as i've said, and YES I can be wRONG...but my logic/reason is based in math...that RISK is getting higher and higher for the CB to keep levitating in this period against the natural forces ( similat to mid 2007 infact) ....and we wd just play 'catcup' if they do, as we did in 2008....but it seem unlikely to me ...maybe they would prevent a break of the OCt 2022 low in n2024 before election ..but one step at time.
Oh - and when I finally get time I will mark up a chart with these waves ..I had all the data bakc t 1900 then 'life went crazy'...but we only really need the one from 2000 to 2009 ( Primary 4) then 2009 to now ( primary 5) ...just know 1937 was start of SuperCycle ..I don't know and no one does if it is 'Super Cycle 3rd wave or 5th'....neither is great but obviously if its 5 ..its kinda 'end of the world' stuff..or at least ...'end of the system as we've known it for 200+ years..and well, we know this is a distinct possibiliy over next 10-20 years don't we?'.
So yeah just focussing on 2009- now, its a BEAUTY ..because of the triangle or flat '4th wave' ending in 2020 low .... so however we do it ...its clear we are at BEST in 5th start some cd argue...at worst 5th ending....or 5th ENDED and A..now B .....
I know.I know..waves are useless....yes and no...for this I say NO..they don't give exact timing but for me it would take the biggest outlier event of all time to make these wave patterns totally wrong and lead to a major new cycle upleg from here,.
FWIW - I favor ..and its just a 'guess' based on experience .that its A..now B ...and I think the CB 'bank save' just goosed it ...into what cd be a retest or truncated B ....but I cannot totally rule out the 5th ..but it doesn't 'look right' especially on the comp. The retracement was too big to be 'naturally' a 4 ..now 5 ...
..but materially on bigger picture its moot to me ...obviously for trading Swing /ITor shorter it matters and I continue to track the model calls on those -
- currenrly most likely in '4' type wave with a 'retest' lower ..THEN a '5th' type wave up ..I guess into Oct.....but as I said, RISK of truncation and or unorthodox failure is increasing ..especially as retail continue to BTFD.
Propriatary ( and more reliable) real money sentiment is showing me berarish signals here ( way too much BTFD especially in COMP ...also signals that at very high win/loss has led to market weakness ) .
LQ same
VIX same
but its only a game of odds ...a game that can be stampeded by the CB's ..hopefully they don't have another excuse here to do so.
"If I had to 'guesstimate' ( we need a better word - )
- We are completing or compled iii of some sort of 5th here .likely of an Ending Diagonal type terminal and trunction is 50/50 short of recent IT highs
OR
- in 'c' of some B wave up still part of IT pullback
tbd"
Still cd be either BUT - tomorrow cd decide it ...If we make a 'lower low' from today's down move, then, I strongly favor completed B ..now C down ..... if its 5th up ..we 'shd' take off tomorrow to upside .....so price in this case is best 'signal'.
TNX - I makes sense to me ..that If this setup executes it coincides with TNX making a new high and inducing 'panic' ..similar to MArch but there TNX was just retesting highs.
Dollar is also showing as expected alot of strength.
Yeah just looking over the data we're seing MASSIVE BTFD ...so, odds increasing of C down ..and target is obvious and surprising 4250 area ....hmm ..if this plays out ..i'm not sure we get a full 5 up ...to finish this CB induced MONSTROSITY ...i think we entering a very complex confusing period that will ultimately end with some kind of truncation as we say in wave world, or 'complex terminal' ... with alot of divergences into say November before a really impuslive down move across all global indexes finally takes hold .of course...do boyz = now da Algos' won't allow that until Retail is totally on the wrong side ...which they are right now BTW.
- The move here has ALOT of RHYME to the Feb- mid march correction ...with us currently today around that March 7-8 mini bounce after start of C drop ( i ..ii of C) ...so if this plays out ...we get similar then a steep impulse iii of C down to targets....this makes alot of sense to me fractal wise ..but of course, it only the highest odds ..other paths are possible dependent on real time data.
* IF this plays out it wd be HUGE confirmation of the TERMINAL nature of move from Oct 2022 ..and final move up off any low made here in next 1-2 weeks ..call it a '5th' if we want ..that is less important than these structual clues. ..My strong sense our 'cycle position' is very similar here to summer of 2007 ....and the outcome cd actually be quite similar IF the PTB don't want to sink the Titanic this time around...which IMHO wd be RISKY to extreme ..but they control the master plan I guess.
5 minor down! ... so if we now get a choppy bounce and or more drop I look for this to be that RETEST the ST model was looking for ...EOM had alot to do with holding that off .... this is all getting very choppy and complex which fits the TWO highest odds paths I gave.
FYI - the PIN seems to be removed from Substack .(OK it moved - found it again) .so just hit 'NEw FIrst' ...not loving substack but no time to change it right now.
FYI - data showing large % of consumers now have revolving credit card debt at highest rates for long time ...paying Rents on credit cards ...
As mentioned I now I do the financials now for 100+ apartment complex - I am seeing increasing 'stress' - may queries about future rent increases as they can't afford them ...yet our rents are 20% below market average...so top end rentals are going to get killed now/very soon - we are so many calls people try to leave expensive rents for ours .... but I just fill last available rentals now 100% full! ... we are seeing people triyng to 'double up' even in tiny studio's ...its getting VERY DESPERATE ..and cannot go on much longer .... the Owner has been at it 30 years and say its more insane than 2007 as that graph shows.
As I said - the LONGER we Stay up in this 4-5 S.D. zone, the WORSE the COST will do once it collapses ..because the larger the debt built up will be....and longer it will take for prices to drop far enough to reach an equilbrium most can actually afford ( back to the linear trend line)
TNX/TLT - i said yesterday, doesn't look like the major turn setup ..that bulls really needed ..TODAY it definitely doesn't ... the drop look corrective very high odds on TNX (TLT) ... maybe we get more games ....but this wd likely kill the ONE BIG TREND chance bulls had if bonds could have topped here ...I don't see it ..infact, this likely means the long the grinder goes ..the bigger /longer the breakout will be ...I just have spider sense all year, and longer ..than TNX wd eventuially reach 55+ due to RTE of COVID move...and other reasons ...we are FINALLY getting toward I think on bonds the INFLECTION ZONE which will crack the debt/credit bubble.
Stocks - churn down so far where I expected...but the NEXT MOVE I think is VERY KEY ..the models are clear, this kind of setup either means
- a power next leg up ( 5 of 5 high odds) next week OR
- a powerful move down ..which cd just be part of longe rup move terminal ED, or a C down ....or a 3 down.
We are moving toward final anwswers in Setp ..I think the shell game is nearly over.
PREDICTION - Data on debt/credit tells me there is NO WAY now that the bubble holds together into 2024 Nov election ....It's beginning to burst now ... once that starts its an avalanche ...best they can do with $ giveaways is try to SLOW it ...but i'm doubtful the Biggest bubbles and collective 'everything' bubble can be duck taped for next 14 months ...
- so this has BIG implications
Infact, the FED are directly responsible for engineering this to be FAR WORSE ...as we know, by engineering the bubble 6 T QE, then deliberately slow to do QT and raise rates ..staying behind the curve ..they STILL are ... ...so sure they SLOWED the collapse ..but now the result due to AREA UNDER the CURVE of Debt collapse will be worst ever seen ..this is HORRIFIC and I FEAR for us all ...hopefully they can do one more save /up cycle in 2025/26 ...by all means push it out so I can find a hole to hide in for 2030+!!
UP into END of MONTH for Nth time ...as said few days ago ..its a running 'joke'.
High order Trend WInning the 1st round here off key suppport
But ST model is now at extreme's that in almost all cases lead to either 'grind up' or 'pullback'...
Then - we will see once September gets going next week if there is some payback to these anomalies and extremes
Dollar dropped here in support - part of the 'new LQ scheme'
TNX - dropped but NOT is way that wd indicate a reversal to me on Setup I had ..it looks more like a pause but next few sessions will show me on signals.
If I had to 'guesstimate' ( we need a better word - )
- We are completing or compled iii of some sort of 5th here .likely of an Ending Diagonal type terminal and trunction is 50/50 short of recent IT highs
OR
- in 'c' of some B wave up still part of IT pullback
HEADS UP - Anomalies are building on my models ... I think things get more interesting from here ..more volatile than we've seen for a while ...with predictable hook that we are up into EOM!! it's kind of joke at this point!
I actually find this crazy interesting this sort of setup -
- We have the higher trend trying to complete with a final wave up BUT
- we have Shorter term cycles not complete and throwing up big anomalies
- then we have CB post effect of possible RTE ..though, LQ is actually high right now ..but
- LQ is in a dangerous area of a big down reversal or some kind of blowoff/reversal
THEN TNX is also at key position I mentioned - down today, b ut need to keep turning down or I see big move up coming off next test of upper resistance
Yet ANOTHER GAP UP - something anomalous there 6th in row!!
But market meh since the open ..so no real clues on that short term...but failure by say wed AM to take off*( to upside breakout) ..and I think we get our retest.
OH - I just noticed something - on volatility ..I did backtest and it appears to have never happened before ...so an 'anomaly' ...but points possibly to a massive insider trade + the distribution signals today ...IF confirmed by failure to take off here ...then this wd add to suspicions!!!
- Either we 'explode higher' tomorrow AM - gap up /run Otherwise
- we are going to top out again, and at least get a retest of 4350 ...potential for lower now.
HEADS UP - today is showing potentially BIG DISTRUTION due to LQ to price differential and VIx signals .... BUT to confirm, I wd need to see a faiilure of this bounce tomorrow AM by no 'big upthrust'....if so, I think today is very dangerous signature on the model tbd
TNX/TLT feed into the ST setup I think - I have a couple patterns there ..if TNX say doesn't break down hard by wed ..I look for it to shoot for 45 area.
HEADS UP - the Volatility model is very negative here on the IT timeframe ... this puts high odds ( barring another endless CB intervention ) that EVENTUALLY ( and that is key word ) we'll get a 'lower low' here after whatever magic is conjured on this current bounce ( looks very B wave'ish to me).
I would love to post a long video and go over everything ..life is just not cooperating! I am still closely following all data and models but its take time and energy to post video's ...MAYBE tomorrow LOL ...at this point there is alot to talk about ...I am chomping at the bit to talk over ...but another week won't make a difference on most of it ... we have discussed alot of it in the comments ..but the data/charts paint a different picture.
IF TNX takes out 45 to upside All HELL is going to break lose in bond market my work shows...so this is massively important inflection point for TNX here ..do or die ...if it dies and drops it will be initiaally bullish for stocks, but then signals oncoming recession ..i still think breakout is higher odds and indicate end of the 'experiment'.
Price targets and timeframe - roughly 4300+-1% ...for IT low, and say sometime in Sept.
THEN - a final IT up move is still highest odds ...BUT - targets and timeframes too far out for me to project but a good 'guestimate'
- minor new highs for the cycle up move on SOME indexes but not all
- a risk of a MAJOR TRUNCATION of the move short of the highs
NOW - this is IMPORTANT - that TRUNCATION cd infact be far more signficant IF ..certain events unfold ... so then, the 'last leg up' wd be more of just a swing bounce or IT bounce that is short lived OR conversely long lived but lame and exaustion in nature.
In other words - WE ARE ENTERING an INSTABILITY REGION in the SYSTEM ...this is how instability manifests in markets. Normally, I woudl say we could see an 'overthrow /overshoot' but most of what I look at is against that here quite strongly - so for now I put that low odds.
Btm line - it's going to get increasingly 'interesting' :-)
I think the final up move has begun now (Wave 5 of c of b) - and am targeting mid-September to mid-October and 4,650 for a top - that will complete the 'b' off of the 'a' low at 3,491 and lead to 'c' down - which will target 3,491 for a flat minimum or possibly down to 2,200 maximum, FWIW
'tis possible ...but the signals right now make me believe we have more downside to come still ...but either way ..were getting getting to to the 'fat lady' stage!
If this we labelled 'B' is infact still 5 primary and likely truncating ..then no downside target we can believe right now is likely low enough ...tbd
Its all going to come down to the really big question - Is there ONE more down then Up cycle left in this Game? so down to say 2025/26 then up to 2030'ish ..then 'the end' Or is it now ... I think its impossible to tell until we see how this unfolds ...I think BONDS are more important ...it depends if we break above 45 here ...also, how fast bonds come down once it breaks the credit 'economy' ....then ultimately as usual, whether the ONE trick pony CB's decide its time, or one more save - I don't see how we can go more than one more cycle because even that will take likely 10-15T of QE or same other new scheme .... a 'loss of faith' event is then high odds and getting out of CB's control.
May we live in interesting times - and then some! !!!! All this ignore other big issues we need to factor in - the PTB other games likes wars , pandemics , ufos and whatever else they could execute..and of course 'civil war' then have simmering ..for 2024?
Quick comment - today was pretty much what I warned ...now we enter the 'decision window' -
- if tomorrow reverses today back up ..then, I dunno' ...in decision for while longer.
- but if tomorrow is sideways then I see at least a lows retest for the move
- there is also a setup here for big down day again or one following a narrow range day.
So odds favor a retest of SPX of 3430-3450 ...and it what happens THEN ..that is key ... we wd be back at 'do or die' zone - I'll need to see how models look at that point in real time ...assuming the anomalous save back up doesn't occur tomorrow.
* one of two amazing signals through the madness that work, only a few losses
I see another CB intervention right here ..porbably due to Powell speech etc ..hopefully just a short one we usually get around speeches ... as signals/setup are VERY clerar for more DOWN and test of pivot below.
No time right now - but this move up is CRAZY BS - totally corrective but being JAMMED OVERNIGHT ..so I'd say 'Bots ... someone big doesn't want us to make the lower low and break those technical levels .this is what it tell me ... CB's? cd be
So we are now going to see likely some big volatility ..because when you fake the market this insanely ..there usually is air pockets back down when u finally end the program etc ..... no idea where that it of course !
I'd say this is HUGE CONFIRMATION we are entering final weeks/months of this massive CB intervention ..I guess they have a date in mind and wont' let market fall apart until then .e.g usual autumn b.s.
Looking at ST model - after whatever upside opening jam job again ..there 'shd' be some pullback ..even on the biggest ramps these signals have held ...so, we'll see ..if not ..something 4-5 S.D. is going in on ST ...cd be some sort of blow up type deal.
YEP - and signals show high odds of at least some more downside here..when I get time, i'll show the best signal that has worked literally through everything...making me reconsider day trading :-)
I am crazy busy today - and tomorrow ..so likely no posts ..I said a fair bit recently ..will update again after that..prob's wed ... this looks 'corrective' but 'they' can turn anything ..so lets see where we are latr in week.
TNX looks very dangerous here price pattern on BB ... it has parabolic looking characteristics...not necessarily fast ...but it looks like a slow motion parabolic to me.
Gap down to next target zone which MUST HOLD - we are getting the predicted bounce here ...this one MUST BE MORE than another GRINDER UP ....needs to be a strong upward reversal I feel ...otherwise ...if this rolls over again ... we are going to trigger a whole bunch of technical breakdowns on my system - rare ly wrong ..unless CB steps in ...which seems very unlikely given last 2 month of CB magic and current draining a bit.
Have been absent for a while, went on vacation, then got covid.
I have been reading that Warren Buffet sold huge into the last ramp, so it was all for him. On the other hand Michael Bury made a huge bet, 90% of his net worth on spy and nasdaq puts which expire at the end of the year, so that may be the floor for now. We will see. The algos are just incredible now, and TOS really sucks, so I will be looking for another trading platform.
HEADS UP - we have an important Price signal on SPX and comp here I call 'outside inside' - it works on everyframe ..but the longer the timeframe the better the win/loss probability - daily is very good odds....this is on the weekly ! ... I will show and tell later.
TODAY Must be the Swing/IT Low or at most a retest ....If there is going to be the OBVIOUS 5th wave up .or 'one more slightly higher high' over next few weeks.
If we make another low from here - system puts odds very high - we are seeing a 'RTE' event - eitehr due to CB ending their b.s. OR due to just simply natural order re-estabishing.
Whether I label that 'end of the B wave' now C down (always the fastest ugliest..and possible crash waves in history) Or count the up move as final 5th of Primary/supercycle and then new bear ...only will matter down the road.
Everything looks like we get 'one more IT up wave' to complete al the patterns - but experience shows me that is exactly when we often do not get the FInal up move in modern markets ( or on down sides)
btm line RISK is off the charts here on long side as i've said for a while ...it just seems almost nobody realizes it! ....and sure, we 'might' get the obvious last IT up move ...but the upside if VERY limited....but the DOWNSIDE potential here is literally 'off the charts'
Been thinking on this - I think we get another 0.5pt here so to 6% or even 6.25%
I see the Biden idiocracy spending even more crazily ( is that possible? ..why not mail 10k to all voters ..it not real afterall..rule nothin' out at this point !) ... so cd rates go higher? I'm doubt it ..more likely, it will just mean they STAY HIGH and for LONGER than they wd otherwise ...into mid 2024....as economy goes over a cliff ...and maybe the Dems can paint over it before Nov but I have serious doubt about that .....I think we will be in steep decline by then ....and as I said, I believed the PTB plan was to put DeSantis in ..this time or maybe next ...so they have remove Trump ... that plan is well into action isn't it LOL ! ...... if DeSantis is the plan, than the CB will let it collapse into nov 2024 so Biden loses ..otherwise they will no doubt pump a bit so to be 'neutral' ( try not to laugh ) ...but I think the market will be looking 6-9months ahead no matter what I hate what it sees ...and 2nd Biden term will be end of USA and cd be th eplan ..sort of Bush(Jnr) term 2000+ and that disaster on steriods....so alot depend on PTB lever pulling as usual ...but I think we've peak or peaking on the Up cycle herrre again ..and next down will be as said alot more 'direct' ...id say closest analogy is 2007 to now 'ish near term ..but hard to say 2024+ ...pretty much it might be a repeat ot that OR the 'end of system' event ...tbd
Bounc lks corrective on Comp - but impulsive on Dow - Spx mix ..
TNX get bounce here predictability at highs retest ..but TLT still likely has more selling ...so I think it won't be much ...problably the last bounce before both breakout and panic system..
More grind here..so as I said yesterday and now we tagged first target area 4400....this looks to me we go onto to test next pivot 4350 ..or even lower bound 4325 ....... I do expect more bounce attempts ..and likely if/when we get a plunge..that cd be where bigger /longer bounce comes .
If we were to drop like this through 4300 ..then huge trouble coming now.
RISK very high here ... tomorrow looks very important ..more when I have time ... Credit signals telling me this mostly..more and more looks like CB are reversing whatever the hell they did.
Technically - a failure to hold 4320 'ish on WEEKLY OR muilti day closes will give me a powerful 'open jaws' signal ..and target of 4150 area in a flush move down ...so its getting very important now ...RTE on LQ is increasingly possible as I sad
Yep 4365 tagged and close near it ... well see if it bouces in AM if not ..shd get to that next key pivot zone as said ..then that will very important 'well see' zone. for IT and potentially Big picture
I made some additional comment last night on prior days threads might want to read.
Right now, Comp is leading and closest to 'technical trouble' than SPx and Dow is strongest ....we cd see usual index divergences to confuse here next few weeks.
TLT yep.
This seems too orderly to me on downside...real 'safe grind' ...I wd not be surprised if we bounce soon but ultimately get a sharp technical breakdown ....then a proper bounce is MO of this SICK SICK CB
AH - LQ just finally took a bit of a dump ... that plunge is likely close here with alos TLT dropping as I mentioned into gap ..... what we do then is likely the KEy to where we are going!
LQ infact ..look set to drop hard ...i will keep an eye ..will be informative
Ironically or maybe more simulation - the CBOE is now opening high and dropping into closes as we drop ...whereas as I pointed out during the latest CB upward simulation, it did the opposite vary 'mysteriously' ... smoke ..mirrors etc LOL
And then CRAZY puts added right at close - right now, I am no longer using put/call data ..it seems totally useless and fake for last 4 month ... for sentiment I now rely on other less watched data that seems far better read ...
But this now look much more like IT Move to test KEY BREAKOUT PIVOT @ 4325-4350 ..that crazily is where 80+% of the money flowed in from on the 'breakout' !!! ...so it MUST HOLD or a major technical break is at risk .... wd require likely yet another CB SAVE if that happened.
One step at time ..I don't think many understand Technical since CB have made make believe so many times and for so long - but when the CB is OFF the tape, and possibly now in an RTE as I've explained (tbd ..not clear yet) ...then these technical matter 100% ... and its only 1.5% below which is truly hard to believe given the mania/euphoria for months we have seen!
SO to ADD to my comment last night - and I will when tiime allows back this up as usual with 'data/math' - but i'm getting my 'spider sense' ..I don't get it often ..I got it early 2000 , summer 2007 ...and just starting to get it now .... it coming ... picture a slow build of a massive Tsunami wave ..its barely visible yet ....cd take at most 6 more months ... but once it starts to build there is no real stopping it ..maybe slight delay as election year for worst of it ...as I said the prior minor top and drop was a REPRICE ...not a real bear ...what's building (and its early yet) here is much bigger degree .....and I believe, likely one higher than 2000/2007 .....unless PTB decide its not time and go even more insane for one more up cycle into 2030 ..but even then, we'll get something 'bad' to reset first ...... but early days.... most likely, we get a longer drop here THEN ONE more long grinding move up on some inddex into final top ... plenty of time to figure the road map ...but risk is rising of RTE reset and that doesn't happen ..I think its kinda 70:30 right now ...but if technical breaks occur ..especially spx under 4350 ...odds shift to 50/50
SPX/Comp - cd be same, or 1.2. 3... cd be running corrective
btm line - odds still favor more drop before end of Swing down 4400 Spx still strong target...then we'll see if this is 'all this is', or normalization move and IT drop ..tbd
HEADS UP - MUCh UGLINES is BREWING .. I can see it all over the longer term risk and other models ...I don't care how much lipstick they put in this ...from what I see its now just a matter of TIME ..not IF ... and it won't be a 'reprice' ...it will be impulsive collapse type move on large degree ... we are now in my strong view, in the final weeks/months of the secular bull ...and start of primary/secular bear proper.
Also - when I get time - the ONLY time in market history I can find, where the NYSE did NOT confirm the move on SP500 .... was mid year 2000 ....so in terms of the PROCESS ...with rates rising etc ...this very similar .... I don't think the OUTCOME is the same ....but it very rare.
And my suspicions are confirmed by data - I've talked about the evidence that CB's in foreign lands are the 'mystery Lq' I can't account for ...whether its others CB are the FED's behest, or simply ours with foreign accounts ... this is the answer .. no trend, no rationale, just out the blue massive indiscriminate buying of everything ..yeah, totally normal. LOL
This chart sums alot ALOT of things I haven't had time to discuss - CB smoke and mirrors as usual .... btm line is watch this key decuision zone we now are approaching.
At best - the bulls get ONE more IT up move from here, over few weeks to month to minor new high ..then we crater ..but I don't think its a given because the upmoves we so faked by CB funny money ...the truncation just seen is big risk warning that we might 'mean revert'.
TNX is at a critical bification here ! next day or so ..if it keeps pushing higher it rules out nearly all 'bearish' hopes on rates...maybe a retest of TNX highs then give temp pullback ..but i would favor this wd confirm a major breakout on TNX is coming in next few weeks...so important right here.
TLT is likely going to 'catch up' to TNX here as has GAP just below ...I cd see this being impetus for market to break down here to initial targets e.g. spx 4400
I've had bit more time to look over all models - bonds, dollar, stocks etc
I actually think its VERY CLEAR -
- we are essentially now repeating end of 2021
Bonds are clearly in 4 or more likely 5 up now - and 5 up is going to indicate massive secular change I went over ...
Dollar is less clear but likely turned up, or close to after one more test of lows.
Stocks are now entering eitehr a long winded topping out phase similar to end of 2021 or will just 'revert to extreme' down If CB's reverse their LQ injections of last few months to save banking ...tbd
THIS WEEK -
I think bonds will continue to sell off ..TNX moving to eventual retest of cycle highs.
Stocks - SPX high odds is going to test 4400 (1% below) the path to get tiehr is less clear, but could be mon/tue ...or if we bounce...a longer route .... the BIG question is IF 4400 doesn't hold, its high odds start of a RTE event from LQ .....and then 4300-4350 test comes into view ...and a failure there would confirm ...and then RISK on both sides goes high as
- we ought ot get ONE more IT up move to cherry the top cake but
- a true RTE by CB on LQ would screw that ... and so have to go one step at time as usual and not predict.
btm line - things are going ot get way more interesting in Sept-Oct
I'd like to make TA video tomorrow but depends on time/stuff ...to show some of what I see in the data.
Oh DARN - I types a massive post ..substack had a meltdown and lost it and no draft ...O h well I will try to recreate a bit.
What I was saying - is ..about the PRIMARY DEGREE SUPER CYCLE ...and that I am NOT so focussed on the current Kitchin business cycle/CB induced Save etc ..but the NExt one or even TWO degree of trend higher.
FOr me - this is the first time I truly believe we could have that kind of degree top - 2000 was no chance, 2007 had a chance but things didn't add up..this is first one with cake totally baked.
I've also said, its p4robably 50/50 if we get ONE more VIcious cycle here ..then One more up in saty 2028-2030 .... I was leanign to yes until ths latest CB alchemy to save banks ( no idea how they did it ..some new magic )
I was saying, this is actually terrifying ...because CB's are panicked and save happy, and 2024 is election year...so Dems will be even more insane spending wise.
KEy POINT - the LONGER we take to 'let the air out' of latest bubble, the less chance of that last up cycle ..the reasons are complex ..i've go over ..the simplest is ..because RATES will confirm 5 UP and secular trend change up .... and a DEbt/Credit bubble driven system cannot do the 'one trick CB game' in that scenario ..they WILL TRY ..but rates will shoot up..boxing them in faster each time..... we likely will see this shortly again now.
Btm line - this isn't like 1998-2000, 2003-2007 or 2010-2018, etc ...because of the change in secular rates ...which is ultimately a sign of loss of condifence in US$ are safe haven etc
KEy simple point - The Debt burned on lower 60-80% of Americans ( same in UK etc) is so high - due to Rent and food costs ..that longer this goes ...it risks we get Primary top now ..and not after one more cycle .
Now - I mentioned i'm helping a friend ..part of reason, is i'm doing the financials for his 100 apt property and also get alot time to get feel for wider economy as he has alot of contacts in business ..he had seen my work online and got to know me. I'm trying to learn entire property managment business and also dig it out of huge hole due to he is 75 and kinda of mile high, and previous manages left ..and big mess ... I said i'd do it few months to sort it out for him ...and then we'll see .... I'm leaning I might continue is as
- it gives me a perfect real world view into economy ... I'm learning alot on this...obviously I cannnot say specifics for legal reasons but in general I can say with 100% certainty that
-> yes, 80%+ of people cannot now qualify to rent ..and its across all states ...once the economy turns down most people will be unable to pay rents... or mortgages.
- people are already panicking about it ...but know they are powerless
- the biggest driving force of insane rent inflation is lack of skilled workers and crazy rise in those costs ....we are lucky is workers even turn up for work!
Anyway I have alot more to say on this ..but that gist of what my lost post said.
But most important fact is as well, it would mean a TRUNCATION on the previous high !!! that is is so RARE and wd add massive confidence that SECULAR trend in rates is now UP ...with all that implies.
I believe once TLT bottms ( TNX Tops probably 50-55) .. it will coincide with that Global synched top ....in the credit induced 'economy' ...and rates will fall ..as usual, in flight to safety but NOT to degree all previous cycle since 2000 .....
* I think we are see a MIRROR RTE of that COVID move in 2020 ...here to the upside ...and note, in that case 2020 it wasn't until the flgiht to safety ended that stocks took off ...and same here, it won't be until bonds stop selling off ...that stocks properly top ...but in both cases the longer it took the more 'stored/lag' effect!
Only way they could stop this move in bonds is to crash the market and time is now running out for that to occur. They have played the balancing act ad infinitum and now it will return and bite them in the ass!
the slower we Grind down here ...with LQ/USD/VIX config currently on ST model .the HIGHer the RISK is ..rising ..that a normalization move is beginning finally ..which would then indicate CB have ended their latest 'upward simulation' ..THEN we will truly see 'what is what' and can interpret TA again to tell us the odds of 'next step' ....until of course, they do it again ...which I guess we just look out for bank issue s..clearly they will always save their buddies.
In MY VIEW - we are entering now a CRITICAL PHASE of the 'Breakout cYcle' ... next couple sessions look very important on the fractals ... if we do NOT see a BIG BOUNCE tomorrow ...or if we drop ..then odds very high as said confirming a DAILy SWING down toward SPX 4400min, comp 13600 ... But DOOR wd OPEN then to an IT decline ...and any move below those levels, wd confirm that ..and possible IT move ..which MUST HOLD spx 4350 ... of fractals wd be EXTREMELY DANGEROUS on the downside from there ..... so these are the KEy pivots for me ..indicated by many perspectives.
another Dimension to this is watching REACTION on sentiment ..which I am tracking closely ..its too early to be sure...but this is looknig VERY dangerous in that regard.
Same with BONDs - i still believe we are basing to move even higher ..see previous comments...I see nothing to contradict it ..and the lack of focus on market on this is typical 'crazy delusion' of Mania/CB induced detachment from reality we have all seen many times since 1999.
But the unknown variable remains the CB - the Credit model has been by far, the most predictive ...and as I said for months acted 'strange' ... it is NOW SHOWING SIGNS of NORMALIZIING .... its a process..but this increases the odds that CB's are starting to , or have BACKED OFF from whatever the heck they did that is outside of my model ..something new to save banking system that produced this ... ONCE I see normalizations of credit model, I wd be able to do TA and have confidence in it again ...as said/shown many times over last decades this true .... ideally look for then a RTE event into the Autumn where CB's 'take back' some of what they gave etc.
SO nothing new really .. my life is crazy right now ...once it also normalizes ha ha ..and market also ..I can update everything .... my big picture view as i've said has NOT changed.
I shd ADD - IF the CB Is done 'juicing' - I believe insiders will begin DISTRIBUTION heavily into the tech mania ( that's what it is ) ... and i will be looking in signals I use for that to add confidence ..see some early signs but it should be ELEPHANT SIZE signs if I'm right.
ZERO time to post - just when I thought things couldn't get crazier - Sons new car had issue and had to be taken back lol ... tire blew out on freeway!! ..they were very apolgetic but alot of drama .. and my mother in hospital ... whilst i've ended up trying to run large appt property for friend ..now full time as his person quit whilst I was vacation ... roo many balls in air, rains when it pours etc
Anyway - market - today put odds much higher that this is MORE than usual quick pullback ..ar least a DAILY swing down most likely .... monday will be another big clue for me ..and may give a road map finally ...
I WILL have some time at weekend ..to comment I hope.
So I don't have time ..but whilst I don't have any clear fractal/road map for the current 'breakout' pattern on SPx other than one I showed..which I feel is going to be close..or at least see some rhyming ... so TIMING is TOUGH right now ..here is what I DO KNOW with 1000% math
- the RISK MODELS (5) of them, are SCREAMING HISTORIC RISK LEVELS ....
as result of rising rates in face of CB pumping up markets - if I did math risk models for housing or 'economy' im certain they would be the same.
I didn't have these in 2007 - but I like to put RISK in same terms - we are currently I think now at similar to summer 2007 but with say 1.5 times the RISK ( distance of valuations of all assets from mean ) ...
So, sure, CB can keep pumping and assets go up ...but like last few months, it will just keep rising rates and doubly moving Risk levels higher.
We have NEVER seen any RISK l;evels like this is history - due to combination of high and rising rates, AND mania/bubble valuations .... we could throw in also still inflation/overheating 'economy'.
We are headed for a catastrophe ...anyone with functional brain knows it ..but impossible currently to say WHEN - so i'm happy to sit in cash and focus on other stuff until its clearer, as I said months ago ... buying or shorting this market is GAMBLING until the CB's stop their crazy games.
I will eventually do some TA and update video ..but its fairly pointless until I see proof the CB stop - not clear yet.... a drop of SPX next week wd be BIG warning though, and as i'll show, any move back under 4350 is HUGH warning, under 4300 puts us into 'crash mode' mathematically.
Have a minute - havenn't talked about the 'counts' but actually they are quite clear and 'clean' looking...suggesting high LQ and high emotion .... however, its still not clear to me ..if this pullback here ( as per signals I mentioned) is '4th' type swing wave ... and 5 up to come OR 5 done ..in which case we finally have our first longer IT type down move ....comp looks more like that ...but only price action can confirm i.e. we need to see MORE than just 1 down day...need multiple .... IF when/ this IS confirmed ..as i've said ..that will finally give some road maps...positioning on the bigger picture and just what kind of pattern we are in .... I still think ones I gave periously are very much on.
BONDs starting to sell off/break through basing area ...hmmm.
Dollar still rising - I think 103.5 is key pivot - if gets above, we have lift off...else Stubaby count is in play with one more drop ...we shd find out next week or so...this is very important I think for stocks.
Back from vacation - long drive 11 hours! ... returned to bit of family choas .. so consider me 'out of the office' market wise still ... I will make some posts this week though ... as time allows ... hope everyone is doing good ... market is pure mania for sure ... CB one trick ponies again ...oh well ... can't wait to see how insane this one goes and how it blows up and who they try to blame it on LOL
FYI the BIG MYSTERY here ..is that LQ has acted differently to anytime in last 40 years ..and probavly ever .... in NOT supporting the move .... so I have to assume, however CB's biailed out banks did not work in usual way ... and so ..its hard to predict how this plays out .. LQ has been giving sells whole time and never gave buys ...its literally NEVER happened before ...
Along with that the CREDIT signals have worked ...and still don't have that SELL ..but I do have an more swing/it Sell here right now ...so 'well see' next 1-2 weeks here..I cd see some sort pullback but that key signals eventually needs to Fire a sell I think .its been dead on ..only signal realy that has been ..literally all other TA and signals have been useless as per usual CB MO.
I think we are really in a an 'exhaustion RTE' move ...and once we finally do peak out ...we'll get a fast drop .....and only then can we really get a read ...this has been one hell of a move due to basically ALGO's all trying to re-align to CB induced 'break out' - the evidence on LQ is foolproof ..its nOT due to retail etc ...though they are now 'all in' and then some ...but they didn't have power to move market ...
Had very little time to look over stuff .. one of those crazy periods in life right now .. but just looking over key things i outlined months ago ... I don't actually see any change
- I think this still the same BOX we had late 2022 ...we hits the box limits and stocks fell ...but then the banks went down and CB obviously have pulled another one trick pony out here ..sort of surprising but we talked about there obviously a TIMING to eventually collapse ..and obviously it wasn't YET ...but that doesn't change the DYNAMIC of the SETUP ..just the timing!
- So we talked about this B wave and this has goosed that to the max ...honestly, I say big whatever ...we are now just rapidly closing the BOX back in ...
- I said before the keys to BOX is to watch the DOLLAR first ...for a low in that 98 area ..I am more and more thinking we just saw it .... and if so ...the next step will be BONDS again ...they will finally break out up again...they have really taken time ..but that looks like major basing if/when they do break up ..I think its going ot be a VERY signifant long trending move ...not the quick 5th top I was expecting BEFORE the CB re-goosed the system here to save the banks ..there has to be a price paid and I expect that is it! ...
- So then I'd look for a sort of 2022 TOP REDO on stocks ...but THIS time, for a GLOBAL SYCN top that we did NOT get last time .... and 2nd ..I think it could be alot faster off the top ..and totally disbelieved ..unlike the crazy bear senitment we saw in 2022/23 ...the move up has gone full mania mode likely mostly due to Reversion to Extreme ...which means eventually ( and almost impossible to call where that is yet) ...we go full RTE to DOWNSIDE next time ....
I'm sure i have alot to add but I still see same setup ..just stocks got juiced by CB to save banks ..but in the longer run ..that is likely going to make things worst 2024/25 were we probably could ahve instead got a low
out all day yesterday looking for cars in 118 heat! fun stuff ... pretty exhausted today.. market is hanging around now .... still around the levels on spx where the credit signals fired but did look like we were going to go to infinity ...really not much to add here yet ...
One of these days I will have time to actually post some proper analysis !
At least found a car yesterday for my son ..but has a problem so have to take it back to Phoenix tomorrow for them to fix it ... what fun! I hope not to have to go ...
I am also on family VACATION ALL next week in northern CA ....
Quick thoughts - DOLLAR didn't breakdown and maybe turning back up ...that is as said the most important issue here I believe into end of 2023 ..... will also effect bonds ...I sort of can't believe rates haven't gone higher yet . ..but I think its just matter time ..but the dollar collapse has helped stocks and bonds short term .....but now were getting to BIg picture Decisions on that...we shall see.
Didn't have time to post today ... somewhat surprising move up against even the highest win/loss ST signals here ...this market is therefore as said truly in 'mania' type mode .... it really seems the CB panicked over the banks and how flooded the system similar to all the other times LOL ... more and more evidence this is case here otherwise we would get at least some 'normal' (for extreme markets) action ..but we aren't ... reminds me of 2019 when they pancked in later 2018 and did 180 and no signals/models could see that coming.
Yeah, slow boring market. Looks to me like its setting up for large move as soon as the boyz unload all the shares on the euphoric public/mutual fund managers chasing performance. It makes sense that the Treasury would use all that money it borrowed to prop up the market for now so they can't be blamed for the whoosh down later. I am sure some incident is already being cooked to be blamed for the "market panic".
FRI OCT 13 - LAST POST to THIS THREAD! I will START NEW ONE at WEEKEND as this is super slow loading for me now...and maybe we'll do a new one per month or per week or something to avoid this issue!.
CRITICAL ACTION rest of today - if this is the 'pullback' then we finish at the highs and move up Monday....if we drop down again ..I think trouble is coming ..and there is a SIGNAL reason I will discuss below. Bonds - also got 'flight to safety' on the latest 'war' ... but it's not much ..shockingly little ...so unless that changes once this flight to safety ends ...then we finally move up probably a last time for now into the 50-55 area on tNX for a possible 5 of 5 high ...but one step at time ( ..there are other worse setups on that!).
Sentiment is a HUGE PRObLEM - my signals .. real $..show a MASSIVE CAPITULATION by Shorts last 2 sessions ...and worse, a flip to LONG ... i.e. there is a total consensus that 'the sept/Oct low is in, an now we get the end of year/xmas rally' ... and how nice of ALGO's to paint the perfect a-b-c low to 4200 @ 200dma ?! ...and 5 wave up off it .... hmm .... maybe ...but that is why I say a failure here is VERY DANGEROUS ...because if's the OBVIOUS is not obvious ... historically that is when I 've seen very fast/bad drops... price rules ..but this is important consideration ...
NEW THREAD
https://open.substack.com/pub/markdavidson/p/real-time-comments?r=1ignzj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
CLOSE - hmmmm... no big drop but a very sanguine close considering events and weekend ... that to me is bearish ..as I've said my data shows retail have bullish blinkers on here...maybe they are right ..or retail will get lucky like over the summer due to CB bailout yet again ( though how 'lucky' that turns out to be remains to be seen, since most of the retail $ on long side came in a prices ABOVE where we are..at or near)...and TA does support an IT low 'somewhat' ...but KEY MODEL DATA as I've said does NOT give its full support - its RISKY ...I would say VERY RISKY to be jumping in on this as retail have.
I will over at the weekend ..and likely post new video update ..but I can already see some big danger signals on LQ and price as well as the REAL$ data ....
I was thinking we drop hard ..a retest the recent low ...but infact this 'slip slide' is more dangerous ... MONDAY is now MASSIVE on IT and Bigger .very important session today that for my data leans us much more bearish ...moday is the kind of 'last save point' before a full retest and RISK Window opening wide.
Btw line - This is now a VERY INTERESTING MARKEt to me ...my 'gut' is this is not going to be a simple as most seem to think....and we are for me enteresting a really informative period on the bigger picture
HEADS UP - SPIDER SENSE SIGNAL -..its really just a lot of things but IF EVER there was an example of a PAINTED TAPE BULL TRAP laid for RETAIL ..this would be it for me ..I've listed some of it this AM .. but it's a lot of things .... one step at time ...but If we sell off hard all of sudden into the close....it will be big warning here to me...
FYI - SEEING the MOSt 'Top' calls in BONDS since the spring - the 'rates are going to fall' matrix output is same as was then ...this makes me question my 5 of 5 top for TNX etc ... one step at time ..but this is NOT what I expected art this point ..everytime we seeing any buying of bonds ..out come a gazzalllion top callers who have been wrong for 2 years ...literally ..I know a stopped clock is right twice a day...but its a CONCERN ..it really is !!
HEADS UP - this looks even MORE important to me now.
Yesterday I notice an intraday 'wave pattern anomaly' - we get these 'unnatural waves' often ..usually around genuine news event ...but they reverse ...this one didn't ...and I see another today.
I have joked...many times ..but its actually serious point - that if I see enough anomalies its an 'anomaly signal' - and has PRECEEDED OutLiER or 'against the normal' moves 100% of time!
- most of these turn out to be Central Bank interventions to UPSIDE due to some systematic issue
- Others to DOWNSIDE - occur as ALGO's 'force' the market down against the natural order ( retail. + others ALGOS ) ... and the ONLY ALGO's that are big enough to that ..is the CB ALGO or Da boys as we say ..and only when RETAIL are too one sided. (as now).
We shall see - one step at time ...but If I see more of this into the close today... II will be VERY suspicious of the action here.. I will say more if/when this occurs ...
Btw line - into the close today..the direction is now even more important ...if we see selling of spx down under 4300 ...triple HMMM in effect ...it 'shan't' happen based off 'natural order'
So - to be clear - what I have been saying ..and still true ..is there is a MUCH HIGHER RISK than 'normal' of an outlier type 'event' to downside in this period .... the risk rises if this obvious bounce off the 200 day MA fails ..and if retail buys into the obvious bounce there( check) .... now I look for 'signs' ...as above - and we can see obvious key levels
- spx drop under 4300 wd be big one
- but I think closes near lows instead of highs wd be as important
THUR OCT 12
Got back from trip tue late and catching up work ...and markets here .. I will post something more at weekend but basically
- TOMORROW is a KEY DAY on read for the IT move
- For me -and its a game of odds let's remember, no one knows the future despite their b.s. claims:
- If we made an IT LOW ( the obvious wave 4) at the 200 day moving average ...then we do NOT pullback more here....and we POWER UP .
- - I we pullback ..and internals weaken ..and or price drops back under 4300 ..and or dither around up here but not take off ...then odds increase that its not 4 IT LOW --- and then ALL sort of FUN SETUPS are on the table ..especially if we then take out the 4200 area... I wd then see a massive Oct panic move down.
So ALOT on the line here ... I suspect...we get a bunch of indecision ...but this is good example of an area. (decision window) where it's better to let the market tell me - than tell the market.
BONDS - hmmm ..it looks DANGEROUS here ...for a EPIC BOND blow off ..but one step at a time ...but this is going to be a factor ...as MCHVIE in play with also dollar as we've seen recently..the cross correlations are getting stronger!
I love Gary: https://nftrh.com/2023/10/06/the-spectacle-gold-and-a-new-financial-era/
Thur Oct 5. - FYI - OUT on Grand Canyon hike Fri through Tuesday ..probably won't be in fit state to comment until wed-thru ...
CBOE put call Sky high into close and this AM - NOT NORMAL - the put call literally DOUBLED in ONE HOUR ..which is NOT RETAIL ... it's similar to BS we saw a few months back ..its NOT CONFIRMED by ISEE or Rydex or ANY OTHER DATA
So is this the fool proof BUY BUY BUY! ... Not for me ..the ONE thing I try to teach others who will listen (few) is DATA ALONE if WORTHLESS - its the QUALITY of the DATA that is key, otherwise its the old 'lies, damned lies & statistics' ...
UNLESS I see CONFIRMATION of data by other key sources ...if anything ..it could be 'false flag' so to speak... and yes, they really do that and are that 'evil' I'm afraid...seen it many times in 23 years of tracking most data.
COMP chart ST
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODc3MDM0OF8yMjE4NTU0Ng
LQ - I don't have time to review ..but this is IMPORTANT signal
- LQ DROPPED DEEP - to that bottom line ...
- historically, that is BULLISH IF we then bottom within a week or so for IT type low
- OR VERY BEARISH if we can't!! ..so need to see that over next week
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODc3MDM1MF8yMjE4NTU0OA
If I had to GUESS here ...and I will be out fri-tue so I'll just stay this as may occur in that timeframe
- we are setting up for a sort of V plunge...especially on the COMP
- so I'd look for a sudden gap down and run ..cd be tomorrow
- and then fast reversal ..that day or within a 1-2 days.
- if plunge and no reversal ..its likely because of BONDs/DOLLAR trouble ..and if they don't reverse... odds increase of a MCHVIE event in Oct
My Price MODEL says IF we drop under 4100 for ANY reason ..the market is going to get a full blown MCHVIE ..even if it generates a massive fast rally first
ST - Today ... corrective confirmed off yesterdays low ..now we see if more 'games' or we finally get the tag of 4200 area.
IMPORTANt - a failure of 4200 area to produce -
- signals for Swing low or IT low ANd Or
- a powerful impulse up
Will mean we are headed to 4150 or 4100 before a swing or IT low on my model ( which as said has become increasingly likely)
TNX basing - is NOT going to help matters ..the market doesn't exists in a vacuum ...dollar likewise and correlated via MCHVIE as I've discussed.
One step at a time here now.
FYI - imbalance showing ALOT of BOTTOM PICKERs here today.
ANd produce more churn/upside attempts within the corrective structure .. UNLESS we get a powerful closing upside impulse ..this high odds sets up a big down day tomorrow or early next week.
This is excellent:
Tucker Carlson
@TuckerCarlson
Oct 2
Ep. 27 Donald Trump appeared in court today, but it wasn’t a legal proceeding. It was a grotesque parody of the system our ancestors created. Victor Davis Hanson explains.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Ep. 27 Donald Trump appeared in court today, but it wasn’t a legal proceeding. It was a grotesque parody of the system our ancestors created. Victor Davis Hanson explains. <a href="https://t.co/KhTHateWCZ">pic.twitter.com/KhTHateWCZ</a></p>— Tucker Carlson (@TuckerCarlson) <a href="https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1708986264588791862?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 2, 2023</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Wed Oct 4
how did u enjoy your FEMA FEAR Alarm LOL ?
I posted a weekly update last night - hope u caught it.
Today - weak corrective bounce ..exactly NOT what I would see for forming a IT low ..we still have to tag 4200. ..and depending on any bounce off that ... odds increasing of a move down to 4150 or even 4100 in near term .
CBOE Data Games - too obvious LOL ..yep, so many shorts NOT! ( check ISEE, check any other data ..infact, this is likely bearish usually)
COmP - looks like today is minor 'c' up of a-b-c ..4th or just sub impulse of 3 ...so I'd look for comp to start to catchup to downside ...unless it morphs into bigger bounce.
TNX - yep minor pullback ..look for build for a blow of move to 50 area soon.
TUE -Oct 3rd Can I say I told you so yet? :-)
Nice ..very nice - TNX especially.
Test of 200 day SMA on SPX incoming ..close enough.
Comp is holding up ..I have a very clear and simple target there and NOT been reached yet.
SO I see a lower low still ...we are not quite done for the MINIMUM.
But the question for me all along has been -Will this just tag 200 SMA or something more? tbd but a lot leans to 'more' on the models right now ..but one step at a time ..the 'ideal' target converging on the math is 4150 area FWIW - then a IT bounce.
ust a REMINDER of SETUP I posted Before sUMMER ... HMMMMMM!
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODc1OTY3Nl8yMjE3MTg4OA
REAL TIME CLOSING CALL - My current Signals - NO ST LOW still ... WAY too much BTFD here ..not enough fear.infact now everyone's lining up too buy again ..RISK still HIGH on downside breakers as I listed earlier until that changes.
- I Want to see AM Real $ data ...to see if SHORTINg increased...but usually agree's with my ST signals...so if anything ..cd go wrong way.
^this is getting interesting! ... I think we are very close to POR day here...what will it take? a break of 4200 most likely ..and a panic down to4150 or even 4100 area.whilst TNX blows off toward 50.
QUESTION on DEFINITION -
I see constantly 'the bull market' - What does that actually mean?
->Can it be a bull market is it doesn't make new ATHs?
I guess it can - if after say 2009 low, we runup 50% and still below ATH ..it can a 'mini bull'.
I guess length of time is also an issue.
If this ends up being as my work sas a B wave - that fell well short of the recent ATH ..I can't really see that's a 'bull' ..we could say 'mini bull' - but this is why I prefer WAVE labelling ..it is less misleading .... I also could say Virtuous or Vicious cycle ...this also was neither of those.
I believe my call was correct - a B wave. ...unless it turns around a makes a run to ATH and then new ATH.
LAST HOUR will be INFORMATIVE
- looks to me we finally tag 4200 on spx
- lets see if we finally get a last hour carnage and closing puke ...almost NEVER see this due to amount of BTFD and ALGO saving
- I 'feel' the longer it takes to get a strong spike down ..the deeper down and risk of triggering lower run ....basedon signal and dynamic price model.
TO BE CLEAr - and I think I have been last few months and all year
- Investor Hat - > I will Not FRONT RUN an IT End of Year BOUNCE here until I see a great high odds setup with the I'd dotted and t's crossed ... yeah, I missed that FED sponsored runup..... no problem ..earning nice % in cash these days want for good setups ... its all pretty much been taken back here now....I have to follow the model win/loss and nothing is 100% ..FEd induced anomalies being the main 'losses' ( cash not really. a loss).
- because as I went over last 5 months RISK models show WAY too much downside risk ...until that changes, I'll pass....only take trades that have 2:1 or great in your favor end of story.
I
For Short Term traders - Swing type .. I'll make ca ll when I see the signals/setup ..not seeing it yet ..still missing pieces.
For 'day traders' - I give in these comments and things are really in sink last month...sometimes your in synch...sometimes your out wit that..how it is ..skill is knowing which your in! ...for now as synched as can be.
FYI - I'm starting to see SHORTS BUILD and SOME FEAR but NO ENOUGH for BUY signal.
We'll see how today and next few days changes this.
On SPX - which I've gone over ..but now we're reaching my Min target, I'll give the 'math'
- 4200 tag very high odds
- Bounce there TBD
- then 4150 area HIGH ODDS - IT bounce zone TBD
- MAX overshoot 4100 intraday only, a close on daily wd be dangerous ...
- Below 4100 - VERy high odds of Oct panic ..target 3900 area very high odds
- close below 3900 -> Historic Crash ... unknown target at this time ...but catestrophic..I wd need to calculate at time ..but 3500 retest minimum.
Comp - wave 5 ... 12900 down to 12800 ..below that and RTE move I've gone over.
Clues its an RTE
- the preceding summer clear Central Bank intervention to save bunch of banks which 99% time lead to RTE in reverse 'at some point' ( the hard part I think I nailed here)
- LQ drop and pattern
- too orderly leading to too much BTFD and lack of fear
We'll see ...whether 'they' ..ALGO's really ..want to play '4200 backtest of 200 SMA ' ...or we just instead we go straight into Oct panic ...tbd
MON Oct 2nd
Not even Govt Shut down averted 'news' optimism cd produce a bounce here ..so this support my work like week ( wed-fir comments.).
But One step at time is our mantra - SPX close to retest ...Comp holding up ...I think we'll continue the song and dance divergences until a 'resolution' ... which as said I expect to be down ..but let's see what this RETEST shows up here.
TNX /TLT - are edging into that parabolic breakout 3rd of 5 pattern ..yikes! ... really tracking it now.
FYI - I'm getting some signals ( imbalance) and setup (price fractal) seen before last roll over and hard drop.... interesting to see if this plays out again here... especially given that weekly setup potential drop.
* put it another way - if no big 'turn around tue' tomorrow, I strongly favor we drop hard ..probably coincidence again the bonds selling off ...clear MCHVIE now with USD ..( note.it doesn't make sense, u wd think selling US bonds by foreign banks=drop in dollar...but as I've n noted for 3+ years since I noticed it..it works the other way and means 'something really suspect is going on with how LQ works ..my foreign central bank theory FED is using)'.
HEADS UP - have you seen this CRAZY thing .my wife told me about it ...WTF?https://www.fema.gov/press-release/20230803/fema-and-fcc-plan-nationwide-emergency-alert-test-oct-4-2023
So new Emergency signal - on CELL Phones ..and NOT even SILENT MODE will stop it !
- I literally laughed so hard I fell off a chair at this! ...
- Why don't FEMA aka east wing of the 'Globalist' just fly around in planes and drive cars with loud mega phones shouting FEAR FEAR ! Run for your LIVES! ...how transparent is their agenda at this point ..I imagine Wednesday will see car crashes and heart attacks of those unsuspecting of this...then as usual they can mar the death for any cause as 'COVID' to start a panic about that LOL .Oh My! the times we live in eh?
FRI 9/29
Today is about - WHERE IS CLOSED - for weekly and monthly ..and more that pattern I went over last night.
We had gap up - which was 'weird' - pained 5 up on comp? ...dow/spx corrective up on bounce.
So - now were in RETEST zone - as expected ...I won't pre judge it but just see what we get into close then Monday ....but as I went over, weakness today is bad omen mathematically.
BONds - I see all over the Matrix saying inflation dropping, economy booming, rates topping for Nth time ( heard this ALL YEAR LOL. ) - NONE of which is TRUE .
AND - I can't say details, but my job ..gives me massive insight into the economy ..and I can tell you, it's just gone over a CLIFF In the last month .... literally just hit a brick wall ...I don't know how long before this gets picked up in official data, maybe never LOL as its all fake like everything ..but the market isn't as stupid ...and will catchup to reality at same point ....so I'm even more certain of my recent call on market now ... never seen anything like this speed of 'trouble' ..the reasons I can talk about in detail at later point ... Moral Hazard of last few years is part of it...so people lacking understanding that Govt/FED can't always save them ....as they can't now. ..but they just kept spending and not changing finances ..and now are hitting the wall.
FYI - that WEEKLY CANDLE ...matches one for a bunch of 'analogs' I have for current setup ...and Open the Door is a HUGE DECLINE NEXT WEE K ..but for that setup to play out, I would say we have to drop from Monday and no large bounce from here ...so say
- Max 4340'ish to upside
- Ideally take out 4240 and into that gap mon-tue
- then take out 4200 swiftly
If we get that, I'll give a target based off multiple setups ..it wd be FUGLY
Note a RETEST can be ANY of the following
- 50% retracement of the initial reversal move (Up in this case)
- down to 100% or a slightly lower low ...down to 4220 gap close I wd say in. this case.
Anything Lower than that, and door opens to NOT a retest.
Also a secondary up move off it, would need to be much stronger ...and confirm on the ST model...this move is not great there, it reset to ST sell ... but one step at time.
Looks impulsive down ..some sort of i..ii into the close...we'll see monday
But definitely a WEAK EOM ...so I favor more weakness over next few weeks ..once whatever bounces we get play out.
THUR 9/28
Bounce it is - as said last night, looking for this to be some sort of 4th wave.
TNX also getting breather
Surprise surprise - as I said ... bounce into End of Month LMFAO
FYI - eye ball of my EOM signal
Since Oct 2022 ... 11 out of 12 months UP for last 2-3 sessions of month
Only FEb 2023 was down, marginally
In cases where was weak up, or Feb down ..it led to weakness next 1-2 weeks of next month.
So, tomorrows cLOSE wd be important signal - if it can't get a much higher close.it wd be 'weak' case.
Yep - very 4th wave 'y ..if there is so a thing :-)
Tomorrow is last day of Month ..so look for any remaining strength to come ...best will do is probably more sideways with 'threat' of upside move ..as ST signals reset to sell
to be clear I am of the view that
- a quick retest here of 4200-4220 ( gap close) cd be 4.5.C and then a swing up ..(though I think it likely fails well short of the recent B wave highs)
- but a longer 'slope of hope' bounce here ..will setup up a potential BREAK of that key zone in Oct.
IF its the 4..5 retest...really need to happen by monday maybe tue at latest.
A failure to retest that goes longer than tue ..wd move us to 2nd setup.
Fast and furious relief/Retail trigger happy BTFD mode bounce here.
If it's wave 4 ..it tops around this gap close 4320 area ... then churns or reveres here.
If it goes higher than day 4340 its not 4 ..and we get that hourly swing up into EOM and retail trap in my view setting up a potential October panic move down.
DOW clearly a-b-c up off the low ...spx very high prob' and comp also ...
So now just question of seeing what GAMES into EOM and how silly and complicated the ALGO's can make this ... the 'FLOW/ENTROPY' here is (.and this is purely a 'read of the tape' from experience ..I cd be wrong ) showing DRAINING LQ ...so I think...it will be. struggle even into EOM to hold this up.
* also the MCHVIE ( mass correlated hyper volatility event) signature here ..very early..but STRONG ...is extremely clear this down move is being driven by ALGO's - and I saw that MAJOR DISTRIBTION SIGNAL I posted on the Prior Sunup - these are all very negative 'tape' signs - I cd be wrong.
WED 9/27
Posted new Video update last night -
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/major-market-top-in-or-in-process?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1ignzj#play
Nothing new to say today...a slower grinder phase down ...looks more an dmore we'll fliush down eventually to 4200 area here ....
TRIN - Also now giving strong warning of a TRENDING DECLINE ... a failure to bounce hard here into EOM will be strong confirmation for me.
4240 - some sort of Low? ,,meh ...not too convincing to me..tomorrow open will be a tell on that..gap up and run ...or bust ... either way, we didn't get high odds signals for SWing low..so I wd only see a ST bounce.
I think we'll dither in this mega BTFD zone ..then drop to 4200 ...the only issue is EOM ..which 99% time produces upside for 1-2 days min ...so MAYBE we can get the bounce off from here ...but for me, that wd be WORST CASE for Swing up platfor ..and open door to failure through 4200 in oct
IF it bounces tomorrow - I look to me, completed a iii of ? ...and now in a iv or 4 depending on how u look at it ...but that wd favor still at least one more down leg
The problem is - yeah, it looks like AB - now C as I had ....but the MOdels don't agree...and the signals/model are predictive ..the counts are just label 'best fit'.
TNX just took out 46 .. so RISK rising of that 3 of 5 on TNX/TLT ...and 'royal flush'
STEADY BTFD showing on the Imbalance signals .....this is being sold into by ALGO's producing slow grind down now .... either ends with exhaustion or flush ....
- 4250 low and GAP BELOW @ 4240 to 4220 ..now a MAGNET
- which then makes 4200 area 200dma Magnet.
LQ is now dropping ...so more and more looks an RTE move.
TO get a SWing or 'hourly swing proprer multi day bounce - we 'll likely need FEAR to SPIKE up ...isn't always the case...but looks it here....we will see .. a bounce without fear will open the door to OCt panic under 4200 area.
almost everyone I am reading tonight calling a bottom here - I think we need to gap down again in the morning and run toward the 200-day MA (4,194) now to flush out the remaining bullish sentiment - a bounce here and I am thinking we may have to then go below the 200-day MA
Indeed - I don't have said have the usual signals for a swing low here....definitely not IT low..which is what it would need to be ... I don't see anything but a very short term bounce holding before 4200 area...then , we'll see ...will likely depend on fear...which is my signals and ur reading around agree's is turning more and more bullish instead of fearful...4200 infact likely won't be enough...i'm leaning toward 3900 in an October panic...but one step at time.
TUE 9.6
NICE! - sometimes wave stuff works and sometimes it doesn't ..this one was literally perfect for C down....but NOW we see ...is it 'just' C down ...or RTE move as i've gone over at length.
I suspect we get some bottoming action and attempt to bounce in this area ...but trying to play a bounce here is a risky scenario ...because RTE moves don't respect rules ..just as didn't back in summer on way up.
The action by end of day might give me enough information to judge ....
HEAD UP - also, my key sentiment data is going WRONG WAY and is ALARMING! ...so whatever we get ST ...I am looking for the tag down to 4200 area even if it takes in mid-end of Oct.
TNX - 46 is area if 'might back test...but also as mentioned has parabolic blow off pattern ..so tbd
HEADS UP - well, 'anything' is possible in markets..in a sense...but I can say FACTUALLY that
- BULL MARKETS do NOT sHOW the PRICE BEHAVOur we have here ...so
- either this is NOT a bull market OR
- is a unique bull market ...
The High odds play is factually, that this is either a Bear market rally (B wave) that is either Done now new bear leg, potentially C down ...OR still completing B wave.
This has been my belief for entire Bounce ..and now price has confirmed it ..
TNX - watch 46 area... I have setup for pullback there in ii of possible 3 of 5 ..but also cd be iii of 3 of 5 ...in which ..we go parabolic here.
YIKES - my sentiment data showing Retail fell for it hook, line and sinker ...i'm seeing increasing BTFD .. so the 'All in bull trap' is ON here now ...its a question of if 'they' want to execute it ..of course they do! LOL .. last hour here is setup for a major panic ...but well see if a Save come 4260'ish
USD - Yep .. it will get a pullback which we can try to time/link to stocks & TNX ..they are all in MCHIE zone now.
TNX - 46 better produce a sharp backtest...or the parabolic breakout is on ..and my long term final target are 55 + ...i;ll re llook at this week ....but as i've said for year + ..the plan is to force rates up to break the credit system ... probably NOT the final blow ..but a fatal one for sure....
OT - LOL .. I have a new Iphone for work ...the facial recognition just asked me to wear a mask to work ..FFS ..it just never ends does it?
LAST VIdeo update- few weeks ago .. II j ust reviewed it.... nailed that one pretty good ..but I reallt need to update here this week/weekend ...now we got this as expected...
ST here - NOt seeing FEAR spike ..vix too low, trin too low ..imbalance more BTFD ...so RISK of RTE .... there a gap magnet coming into view fast here also
SHORT TERM - I think the POR is around 4260 ...so either we spike up da' fear into a swing low here...or just crater to 4200 now ....I can't see until I see real time decision data ...nothing yet for a swing low as per signals I posted last night and many others I look at...but can change fast in this zone.
NOw - IF Fear and signals to NOT spike up ..and we crater to 4200 ...I'm assuming we get a panic POR there ....if not ...this is MORE than the RTE take back ..and I will look at that scenario this week ...I STILL hang to a final IT up move as xmas up move from an Oct type low ..but as I saidf weeks ago, a much LOWER HIGH on the cards '...so for me its all about figuring this IT low... I don't see us close yet..way too many missing signals bar as said unexpected CB save.
YEAH FYI - I just ran those numbers on the Price model ..there is not much below 4200..well zones are
- Swing support 4260+-10
- IT support 4175-4220
- Cycle support 3900-3950
SO a true OCt panic wd see a tag to 3900 area....the DAX is showing this pattern setup the best.
tbd
* I ONE STRIKE AGAINST a panic ...is that I didn't get the KEY VIX signals I've seen before ALL the recent panics 2018, 2020 and 2007/2008 ....which I am damn sure is an INSIDER signal ...don't have it here...but nothing is 100% ...one step at time.
Im quite EXCITED by the market setup here As I have a number of pretty amazing ANALOGS ..some fractals some other mode to price ..that are in play here ...really nice road maps .. we are in critical zone here now to see just how close we're following ... I will not JINX by opening my big mouth and posting them YET ..but my 'spider sense' is tingling lets put it that way .. finally my models and read have synched up perfectly ( as usual once CB off tape ..) ..I just hoping there is no more systemic issue forcing CB override ... I'm guessing it would need to be somethinh new ..because they have the collapsing commerical banks under control. ( well, the PLANNED this ..to bankrupt the smaller commericals to centralize bankings into a few big commercials that the CB can they control as proxies ...for down the road ..for brining in CASHLESS system ..phase 1 ..credit or digitial 'cash' apps..no paper by say 2030 ... phase 2 .. CBDC's but won't bring that in first I think...they will need the next engineered global crises for that)
But it u want a simple idea of road map - just look at top at end of 2021/into 2022 ..and this has massive analogs to that here. ..but there are some more detailed ones I have to use as swing/IT road maps.
MONDAY 9/25
Sorry weekend got busy - I am training again for a Grand Canyon hike..each one is more/tougher than last ..this one is FIVE days and toally off the main trails ...so my whole sat was spent hiking ...then I had to cathup finally with Will of Freedom Canada ..... and spend some time with the wife ..... I desperately want to post ALOT of stuff ... but time is just in short supply.
BUt - no real change to what I went over last few weeks and in alot of detail ...
So TNX continous the expected and much forecast by me breakout ... I still think we'll likely get a backtest ..but it 'depends' ... because the pattern is also one i've seen many time into slow burning parabolic break away ...tbd
Stocks - I went over all this in detail - basically 4300 HAS to HOLD ..and also must kinda V uP right here this week - sorry I want to show the price signal its great on this one ..and very clear ...so this is a really high odds pattern to watch here ....next few sessions.
Sentiment continous to be wrong for a Low - and I noticed Matrix was out PsyOping that 'shorts are piling in' which totally false ...so that's another big warning here .
Lets see what we get today ..if a bounce can stick and get legs....
There a few 'fun' charts I will try to post time allowing.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODcyOTg5OV8yMjEzMDg5NQ
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODcyOTkwNl8yMjEzMDkwMg
Update to count I posted - been right on the money so far
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODcyOTkxM18yMjEzMDkyMw
Short Term - this is CORRECTIVE BOUNCE again ..so logically ..barring a 'save'... we're going to get a lower low .toward 4280 MAGNET/TAG zone ..for complete 'C' ...
- whilst we likely BOUNCE there ..I believe it will be another trap
Very high odds in some sort of 4th type wave here (ab- now in c up of it ..flattish ) - so choppy/sideways then DOWN ...either FAST ..cd be gap down to 4280'ish ...or choppy (terminal) over next few days..
THEN ODDS increase of LONGER/BIGGER BOUNCE - ...into end of week End of MONTH usual strength ...then a pluge down to 4200 200sma in Oct ...but a rough road map subject to new info'.
EXAMPLE Matrix output
- I follow the patterns on ZeroHedge which is a perma bear 'end is nigh' site EXCEPT rarely bullish and it almost always bullish at wrong times
I saw at least FOUR Articles similar to this with different 'reasoning' over last week i.e
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/last-time-hedge-funds-were-shorting-heavily-stocks-exploded-higher
All I know is the DAta I follow, which is yet to be wrong.. says the OPPOSITE ..literally no shorting ..at least from Retail.
HEADS UP - Also , and this is IMPORTANT ...is I've noticed since the summer and the CB intervention ..that most Sentiment data has become Uselss and acting weird ..CBOE for sure and the end of day nonsense .. I've seen this movie before BTW.
- So I stopped using most of it AND
- Just follow a narrow set but which is VERY reliable and totally ignore the rest..because i'm 99% certain is now just being used again retail
There is certain data that I have that is yet to be wrong....so until that happens I will follow that and ignore the rest .... and it says for CErtain here
- we have DISTRIBUTION and the RETAIL in BTFD mode here ...as I said quite surprising given time of year ...but I don't try to uncderstand the 'why' ..but Matrix output like this is likely reason plus the 2023 will be up year ..and Xmas rally front running which is why
AND this ...which is Matrix Market watch I admit...but still...its 'analysis' is level of 3year old s with crayons ...can't believe someone got this published..oh wait, yes i can LOL
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20230925820/lets-debunk-the-bears-top-arguments-against-further-stock-market-gains
AND aNother one -
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/it-should-really-bounce-around-here
ANd TO BE CLEAR - and if u didn't follow my work the last week
- I am expecting 4300 to FAIL and us to get a 'shock' move I call RTE( its the pay back for the CB intervention in the summer) ...and fast drop to the 200 day Simple Moving Av. around 4200.
But we go one step at time ..confirmation of that will be a failure to V up right here.
* the PATH to get there though cd be convoluted ...
HEADS UP - we are in some VERY important Short Term action here .. I spent ALOT of time yesterday looking over entire signal set/model and price patterns and on GLOBAL indexes - and its SHIFTED my VIEW a BIT - I think this looks MORe DANGEROUS HERE than I thought.... I'd say the odds of that LAST IT UP MOVE -certainly on many indexes is LESS NOW than I was looking for ...BUT
- what happens here today, and next week is going to INFORM the bigger picture ..sometimes 'informaiton' ripples Down from higher trend to lower but sometimes UP ..as here.
We 'shd' be as I went over in some sort of 4 or iv of C down ...whatever label u want ...a 'bounce' that retests the low or makes slightly lower low - but I do feel 4300 HAS TO HOLD for the 'one last IT up move' at least to make 'new high' on main indexes. ( the why is complex).
I'm just much less convinced here its going to hold ...but one step at time ... today might give info, but cd be need to see also next week.
BOND - looks bad, this little pull back is NOT what those wanting a reversal wd want ...this looks more and more like its going to get a breakway gap IF we backfill yesterddays break out .... infact, I think massive trouble is coming in inflation and bonds ..but i've gone over this ..so no n eed to repeat .
Senitment is now also going 'wrong' but hte bullish case... i'm seeing shocking for Sept real $ signals ...normally retail are fearful in this period ..instead, they are loading up for the Xmas rally already ..yikes! ...they had better hope the ALGO's don't sell us down through 4300.
FYI - the NIKKEI and DAX Primary Cycle Wave pattern is SO CLEAR and TERRIFYING .. confirming my super cycle termination count .. -
- Even in the most bullish fever dream ...we would have a low odds chance of over 1-3 more year of a choppy labored period sort of like 1968-1973 ....BUT
Eventually this setup is so High odds that we are close to Super Cycle termination ...i..e a depression unlike anything we've seen ..certainly since 1930's ...
The BOX and REALITY confirm this unfortunately - the PTB can play around, delay, delude, fake reality for months ..even a few years ...but its like a drowning man ..eventually the financial system is going over a cliff here no matter what ...I';m utterly amazed how few can see this, given how blindling obvious it is ...just even looking at simple math/reality of debt/credit/consumers....but part of this period is MASS PSYCHOSIS/ZOMBIE LIKE STATE that has been induced in mass of population ..so, infact, not surprising at all.
HMMM - Every time I see DIP BUYING on the imbalance signal ..the ALGO's are selling now ..that's a BIG change ...preceeding this swing down I also saw one of biggest Buying SPIKES i've Ever seen! ....double hmm. I also as I posted saw very clear distribution preceeding this drop .
Well, one step at time ...but that bounce didn't last ..if we sell off into the close I think we (well, the market ) is in some trouble here.
I need to get a mouse for my laptop so I can post charts on it, too difficult with touch pad alas.
YEAH that WEEKLY CLOSE is very risky - there is a pattern on my PRICE model ...well, lets just say...ANY more downside next week ..lets saty 4300 MAX for intraday move ...and no lower closing low or it will trigger a high odds Major reversal ...call it a bear, call it a vicious cycle ..call an longer term IT drop ....whatever the words... this Price signal will fire if those conditions met ...and honestly, its hard to see how they won't be ...I don't see anything hefre to suggest otherwise. ,,,, its sort of surprising ..but also not to me for reasons i've gone over
- I suspect ...that the ALGO's will 'dangle the everyone expects/know' 4th wave ABC type move here...and whatever games that keep everyone bulled up and in - then we'll get a 'surprise' drop under 4280 ..and plunge to the 200dma around 4200 ....then bounce ....and get 'dangled' again into Oct low for the Xmas rally ...and so on ...but it is far less likely now ..that we will then get a 5th fiinal up move ot new highs.
- all subject to new information ..as per one step at time ..but if next week breaks those levels...i'd be very strongly in the 'no more new highs' camp ..and RISK that infact, we don't even get the 'Dangle ' move up into Xmas ...but just distribution instead .
We know - Think like the Criminals .. Here is what the criminals know- DID and I'll use SPX
- we Dangled below 4200 for SIX MONTHS ...
- then Banks collapsed ...which no doubt they knew was coming aka CB bailout and market goosage and positioned for it
- Rode it up on backs of RETAIL CHASING the CB Save ..
- NOW they are DIstributing as I said HEAVILY BEFORE and INTO the last up move and initial down move and are OUT
- Leaving RETAIL DOUBLED DOWN LONG from Above 4200
So with Criminal Hat on - Its obvious to m e...that 4200-4300 will be the 'bag'em zone' ..where ALGO's will play with retail with a Slope of HOpe ...UNTIL the REAL DOWN move is ready so
- ONCE we go under 4200 again ...I think it collapse very fast ..there maytbe ONE spike back up there just ot backsweep ... but then we collapse
Assuming - the trap is set etc ..
Obviously - this is a road map over next 2-3 months ..but I just want to say what I'm thinking ...but NExt week shd add alot of information to this 'working hypothesis'
YIKES - DANGER WILL ROBINSON
That was a tehnically damaging daily and weekly close ... I need to look over eveything but the RISK-O-METER is as I said moving higher and now in the 'red zone'....all it would take here is a NUDGE ..a gap down say under 4280 and this market will be in DEEP TROUBLE.
AND Oh Boy - the CREDIt SIGNALS are NOT giving expected BUY here ...just the opposite ..this looks very RTE to the summer CB move to me ..I cd be wrong...but these signals are acting same way just opposite to that period.
Perfect - exactly as i expected ..based on clear setup of data, signals model I went over.
* this implies CB also believe its time to 'let things be natural and RTE possibly from their prior summer 'save' ' ...we shall see.
TNX breakout
SPX gap through 4400 to next target 4340
Then as I laid out, we're at a 'we'll see' zone again....I still lean we're going to break through toward that C wave target ...and possible RTE event.
One step at a time.
EOD - HEADS UP
There is a RARE SPIKE UP in the RISK of a DOWNSIDE EVENT here ... call it what u want, but quite a few warnings flashings ..so other key ones missing namely on VIX.
There's some really troubling data on LQ for a start, that makes it low odds we are at/near that IT low ... that's is a problem.... the credit model is a problem also.
It looks to me, that we'd need quite bit more TIME here to make that 'last IT up move' sustainable ..I warned weeks back the latest up move was likely to retest based on model...and it definitely starting to re-synch on all timeframes now the latest CB bs-a-thon to force that breakout above 4200 is over ....we are now only 3% above it ..with Retail 'doubling down' on longs etc .. that has to be very juicy fruit for the Algo's ...but we'll see.
Tomorrow shd as said be very informative on the IT timeframe.
ALSO the DOW is ironically the most important right now on BIG picture
- if it drops any further ..on closing and especially Weekly tomorrow ..then it
technically will give a completed B ( I posted this months ago) and now in 1 ..2..3 beginning down ( or possibly large C not 3) ..but it won't 'need' that last IT upmove for 'completeness' ( not that its guaranteed on Comp/Spx as i've gone over ..but patterns there wd be as said 'irregular' )
This wd makes some sense ..as consumer economy is first domino to fall ther e..its falling now...BUT also ironically, I believe that once this gets going ...2024 or maybe also 2025/26 that Tech is going to get destroyed this time ..law of Alternation to 2008.
Hey and special thanks to the CB for that summer intervention - everytime they do it, it's another 'data point' that allows me to test/improve the model further ....though, I still don't see how they did it...or more accurately almost nothing in the model which literally has all public data shows the 'how' ...except as I went over the Credit model..so i've elevated that data in the model - I hope to have time this weekend to do video TA and i'll be sure to reshow the key credit signal from that. I wish I could figure out a the 'new magic' ...but I guess its pointless, because, they will just find another and another ...this is clear until the day they decide its time to NOT save it ( banks in this case) ... so the only important signals is
- IF banks or major financial entity is failing = CB will bail it out leading to 'upward simulation' in stocks ... but now at price of delayed upward move in Rates. ..again, until the EVENT day that is probably now penned in on the PTB's calendar ...ur guess is as good as mine when ...all I say is, its sometime before 2035 ...probably before 2030 ..and for all we know its next week LOL ( though I don't think so) ...As much as they will hide it from the masses I know from ALL gthe PAST PLANNED events 2008 and 2020 for sure, that a certain 'Insider signal' clearly shows up on the VIX ...and I see no sign of it yet .
YEP - TOMORROW ( weekly close) is going ot be a HUGE TELL for me on the price models .and alot else ...to determine is this
- just C down ... defnitely it now at miinum ..coming in at or near todays low with strong bounce tomororow ..or far more likley bunch of bottoming action down to 4300 or even 4280 'ideal' - but i feel that is so close then to 200dma that it would be magnet ..so C wd need to come in 4300 or higher to avoid that pull
- OR my RTE move ...for which I can't yet give downside target but most likely a test of 200dma at minimum ..running around 4200'ish
THen we have the TNX move i'd gone on about for months...that will play a factor in which of these
If this is iii of C down ...likely in (v) of iii now into close...then bounce in iv ..then v down ..to complete 3 of C kinda on friday
tbd
I'm watching carefull reaction @ 4330-4345 zone .. some ST signals on buy ....but alot of Swing signals remain strongly sell ...so this will determine which Trend is dominant ..shorter or longer term ...the C wave count wd say longer ..and we slice straight down toward 4300 without any sustained bounces ...but this is important decision window.
Refer to yesterdays charts/pivots etc - for next 2-3 sessions ...were in the latest FED 'Monte Carlo Simulation' ..after that ..were likely to get one more drop as said in period into End of Sept (proably a ramp into EOM as usual) and sometime in OCT ...into another IT type runup which ad naseum i've gone over .....
- there is NOTHING the FED can say or do to change anything here SO
- whatever happens is just as said 'simulaiton'
- THEN we get likely natural paterns finish playing out into OCt.
TNX is just ready to bust out here ...barring more games this week first.
I DO NOT see any LQ pumps of 'funny stuff' - so, after today/tomorrow games we shd resume the naturnal patterns gave
- we cd see one more up move first ..sort of 'c' of X ...
IF that is going to happen it will be tomorrow AM - ideally, we just gap down and go to targets now.
MATRIX - 'the FED predict a Soft landing' ..
Show me Any time in last 25 years of major crashes and bears that the FED said 'we going down hard' LOL
The Economic 'data' is as reliable as a Pharma 'Study' :-)
I can tell you for certain - the cost of Living burden on 80% of population is highest in my lifetime right now ... most have burned through saving, maxed out credit cards, now carrying high debt at highest rates and unlike past they won't come back fast even once the recession starts .... AND THAT is what will turn the 'soft' into 'hard' ..the fact this time rates are going to not collapse, that inflation is going to be 'sticky' ...and that of course, the credit bubbles will implode and CB only have one trick ...a trick which this time will be less effective .... add in Biden spending into election year as well ...
POR INBOUND I believe the 'real world' ( as much as we can call it that...given the amount of Social Engineering and Matrix) ... is AT or VERY CLOSE to the POINT of RECOGNITION here ... its identical in my experience to what I observated around July Aug of 2007 FWIW ... only more extreme ...I have much better insider info now with network I now have ...can't say too much...but I have really good data and contacts ...the shit is starting to hit fan BIGTIME ..and is going to rapidly get worse into EOY from here.
At what point market senses this ..and has POR of its own ..I think is CLOSE ..as said next few months..and how much FED conitnue to play God in short term support like summer whne shit happens.
CB's either let the market crash, i.e., seek it's natural level, and in turn save the bond market or the keep trying to hold the market up and $TNX runs to 5%+ - here we are - no more room to maneuver
Boy - that's some "gung-ho" and "in-your-face" CB control and exuberance to set-up for FED day tomorrow - happy days are here again!
We are seeing bounce everytime my key Scalp signal goes to buy - i'll post a chart of it later it hard to post charts on my laptop from my office .... but its very clear .. and ..I don't think that bullish ... as its sort of RTM and never getting 'extreme' ....
but 'we'll see' over next 2-3 sessions ...probably alot of volatility ..like this ..fast spikes up ..grind down is my guess...then an eventual big impulse down to targets ...timing is difficult to say though
HEADS UP - we have a really good (high odds ) setup for a fast drop here post FED ..signals, waves, model all agree - BUT of course, its the FED..and whatever games they want to play...but without a doubt, the NATURAL order here is a strong impulse down to 4400 and probably much lower.
- so some road map targets I see IF the CB don't override
- 4400 min
- 4340 retest of recent low
- 4280 C wave target zone...
I also see a fractal and potential on DOW for a BIGGER move down here IF it gets going ...so if we trip the 1st pivot ..odds will increase of moving to next and so on ...if we get down 4280 I cd then see an 'overshoot' fat tail move to say 4200 area (200 sma) ....Such a move wd fit my RTE and also lets call a HUNCH ( experienced based judgement from alot data) .... I'd be looking then for ONE more IT up move...into Nov ...but it will be final high and likely short of highs ( truncation).
IF somehow the CB press the 'lets party' button ...then its going to be a mess again ..as natural forces and CB forces go on/off ..at this point in the Cycle ...it leads to FAST PIVOTS and hard ST moves to call ....hoping that does NOT happen ..as the 'natural pattern' setup is so clear ...
HEADS UP - ALSO its clear INFLATION is TICKING UP again ...so the FAT LADY is ABOUT to SING on this whole DEBARCLE ... this will be clear from TNX finally breaking out ( the real tell) no matter what PSy OPs the FED spouts this week as usual .... data doesn't lie ...we are in BIG TROUBLE now ( as of course planned ) ....CRB is taking off ...2nd derivative (rate of change) data on inflation is moving up FAST after drop into June ....so now FED are WAY BEHIND again ..... so like 2022 ...we'll see BOND market telegraph is with breakout shortly ... then FED will eventually have to raise again ..I think this time OVER DO it . ( as planned) ...and this credit bubble already on last legs this will be FINAL BLOW...consumer recession inbound in 2024 unless Biden et al hand out 10K checks to everyone ...which ..well...is possible LOL ... but then inflation will go higher, rates even higher ...and wd just DELAY then makes worse ....hence we cannot 100% predict ...but I think its unlikely such insanity occurs ...i'd like to think anyway :-)
RTM's signals being followed at moment
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODcwNzYxMl8yMjEwMDY0NQ
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODcwNzYxNF8yMjEwMDY0Nw
Current complex Wave pattern ..
- either in B with 'c' up to complete B then down in C
Or
- we break lower under 4400 and in C now to targets I gave
- cd claim C down complete at todays low ..but only if CB override market ...low odds otherwise
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODcwNzYzMV8yMjEwMDY2NA
DISTRIBUTION is taking place on the last up swing and now ...VERY CLEAR on my signals
ODDS are still HIGH - that we get 'some sort of last IT up move' ...but question is 'from where' and 'to where' ... this what were trying to pin down ...increasingly to me ..am looking for both to be 'lower' than the previous possible higher zones.
AS i've said...I stgrongly believe were in PROCESS of MAJOR TOPPING here into Nov/Dec ...topping is often a complex process ...I think this one will be for sure...similar to 2000 and 2007. ( and following very similar wave partterns to 1966-69 and 1970-74 ..which makes some sense )
* Bulls can 'sleep easy' on this UNLESS we get a WEEKLY CLOSE under 4350 ..that wd shift the odds considerably .... shd get some answer next couple weeks and in Oct.
STILL seeing IMPULSVE waves down .. so along with signsls/model ...so no change ...watch 4400 before/after FED ... I think unless we see a strong UP impulse post FED ..that we are as said going to break that pviot down and go into a fast strong impulse to downside targets...only a CB 'button press' will stop it ..it's possible as always but seem less likely than normal here... I cd b wrong :-)
PHEW - had major computer problem this week, my main computer crashed ..and hardest problem to fix I've ever had ...and i've had alot since i've been using/programming computer since 1980'ish !
Call me conspiracy nut ..but strangely i noticed alot of tech problems all over the place this week .hope it wasn't a 'test' nudge nudge ..nah.
Well, I finally got it solved - can't even say exactly ...but as usual it started with a Window 10 Update ...that 'somehow' corrupt my BIOS settings AND removed or corrupted 8 device drivers including my screen resulting in startup showing almost random results - either a bios Hard disk failure, or nothing just a black screen with not even BIOS options.
I eventually got a recovery USB - tested all hardware as OK ..and was able to restore the boot sector to the disk ..and restore the drivers .... fun!
At least my machine is actually now running great . :-) I will assume it was just an 'random probllem' but if I start hearing about widespread computer issues ...i'll will go 'hmmmm'. I'm just lucky to have the computer skills to solve things ... this was definitely a tough one.
OK - so I hope to get to some market stuff today now I have it up and some time!
OH - and talking of computer issues ..this substack thread is getting very slow for me ..so might add new one next week..I will post a warning & link if I do!
SORRY - likely won't get to this today ...I want to do the REALLY BIG PICTURE and COUNTs I promissed months ago ..as its important context ... I LOST that DATA on the computer issue ..but I RECREATED TODAY!! ...but by time I had ran out of time to make new video .. I am pretty certain i'll get time this week or if not next weekend ... I am looking forward to covering it as I think its REALLY interesting. ...short version - look at 1966-1969 period ..price patterns is an really close match I think ... doesn't mean as said the OUTCOME wd be the same on longer term, but pretty close to my expectations on 1-2 year timeframe.
Any way - lets see what new information we get on TNX , USD, and SPX next week ...i've gone over my thought at length so won't repeat.
Been busy couple days -
What is new?
- Bonds ..no change to previous setup ..basing..and I look for 'breakout' to upside on TNX next week ..likely to see some 'mild panic' in stock on that...but as said, likely then it reverses and more games.for a bit before the REAL breakout in TNX .... though, it cd just fly.
- Stocks - clear to me, some major 'support' holding up the down pattern ..its resulted in a clear 'a-b-c up corrective off the recent drop .... this means we cd be in a long, slow, complex B wave...but near term: -
SPx 4400 cash is target next few sessions..cd be fast or take all next week.......then 'well see' if it bounces up again there ..then .it s the long B wave ..But if it drops through, its the C down now ..
Sentiment is strangely overly bullish for Sept on my data .. not sure why, but data doesn't lie.
ARM IPO today - got to make a splash for retail
ODD gap up ..looks DOLLAR related ( sharp drop) ..but Highly corrective pattern ..only see two high odds setups
- in ii of C down Or
- in 'e' of B up
Both ultimately bearish ..one just taking longer than the other ..shd know by wednesday.
TUE - Sept 12 thread as well - as still on same themes!!
* The ONLY bullish 'count' is a good example of UNORTHODOX pattern i discussed at weekend - that fri low (which didn't even retest) was a 'truncated minor c' of abc off the recent move up ..as 'ii' now iii up ...nothing impossible //I mean aparently NOTHING with CB's involved ..the 'count' then is b.s. really, because in natural markets there is a close to ZERO PROBABITY of such a pattern ..its simply putting a label on something for sake of it .... our market = Natural patterns for periods, then totally unnatural when CB or big players distort it ..and on ANY timeframe these days... just how it is...so can 'never say never'.
TNX looks like basing to break up throw that resistance ...then probably pullback again..but that is kinda b.s. market we are in!
lks more like abcd-now e up of 'e' type wave - surprising ..or not ..as market spends most of it time doing stuff to screw ST traders!
HEADS UP - Here is a clear statement of my 'belief' and 'position' ..just in case it wasn't clear..even though i've been consistent on for 2+ years and probaby longer!
I AM AS CERTAIN AS I have EVER BEEN .that we are in the FINAL WAVES of the SECULAR BULL WAVE from 2009 ...with the wave from 2009- now being a PRIMARY FIVE ...of the SUPERCYCLE from 1937;ish
NOW, whether we end up calling 2021 HIgh as the 'final up move' then A down to Oct 2022 and up now in B ... OR this is infact still the final '5 of 5' ...which currently is in 4th of 5 of 5 with one more up move ...is KINDA MOOT on BIG PCITURE ...and frankly given what's at stake once this terminates ...its of little important to me personally
- That is, as I see extremely high odds of a 'double top' OR 'lower secondary top' here over next 1-3 month that will bring in a SECULAr BEAR period the likes of which has not been seen EVER most likely...how is plays out no one can know ...and I don't see any good analogous periods to what will occur so .
If i'm wrong..i'm wrong...I literally cannot see it as i've said since late 2020 when I called that top ..not wrong yet... I cd be ...but my view is even stronger NOw than then based on the data and reasoning.
NOW - that said ...ONE thing I ALSO know to be TRUE -> we won't end this game until RETAIL is both
- on the wrong side ( fully long ) - they never left fully long, and have double down so CHECK that one AND
- FULLY TRAINED - to not get out ..and buy the 'DIPS' ...this was probably in 2022 ..too many traders were selling ( not investor, they talked bearish but never quit the market) ...AND
- CB stop saving it due to 'end of the world' - this was big save again this summer due to massive bank failures which it seems are continuing behind the scenes
SO as kids on the long car ride like to say 'Are we there yet?' -
- truthfully ..I do not know ...the bank stuff is by far biggest factor clearly last few months....there is other smaller factors like 2024 election and FED 'neuatrlity' bla bla.
I really believe only ONE of TWO road maps from here - I just don't yet know which
1. We get a long period of up/down to marginal new move since Oct ...call it a '5th' PAST the Sept/OVt FEAR period for trained monkey s..then like 2000 the TOP comes Nov.Dec as the 'fear' passes ...I do see alot of rhymes to 1999/2000
OR
2. We Get a UNORTHODOX TOP ...confounding ...that doesn't fit anything ...and infact, i've noticed on smaller timeframe this occurs MORE OFTEN than 'orrhodox/text book' - because market is 'designed' or 'efficient' ... to screw Short term traders on every timeframe ....but doesn't happen as much out past SWing/IT to bigger ....but we did see this in 2007 ......so some sorta 2000/2007 topping Hocus Pocus in my 2nd best 'guess' here.
Not into this TOXIC MIX - is Bonds and $ which i've been pretty dead on ..and I still look for that TNX final up move and credit bubble popping event ...in this period.
Could the CB stave this off and pull another 2020? ...not through QE but for sure they have found a new trick with the banks.....but as i've said, and YES I can be wRONG...but my logic/reason is based in math...that RISK is getting higher and higher for the CB to keep levitating in this period against the natural forces ( similat to mid 2007 infact) ....and we wd just play 'catcup' if they do, as we did in 2008....but it seem unlikely to me ...maybe they would prevent a break of the OCt 2022 low in n2024 before election ..but one step at time.
Hope this is all clear? :-)
Oh - and when I finally get time I will mark up a chart with these waves ..I had all the data bakc t 1900 then 'life went crazy'...but we only really need the one from 2000 to 2009 ( Primary 4) then 2009 to now ( primary 5) ...just know 1937 was start of SuperCycle ..I don't know and no one does if it is 'Super Cycle 3rd wave or 5th'....neither is great but obviously if its 5 ..its kinda 'end of the world' stuff..or at least ...'end of the system as we've known it for 200+ years..and well, we know this is a distinct possibiliy over next 10-20 years don't we?'.
So yeah just focussing on 2009- now, its a BEAUTY ..because of the triangle or flat '4th wave' ending in 2020 low .... so however we do it ...its clear we are at BEST in 5th start some cd argue...at worst 5th ending....or 5th ENDED and A..now B .....
I know.I know..waves are useless....yes and no...for this I say NO..they don't give exact timing but for me it would take the biggest outlier event of all time to make these wave patterns totally wrong and lead to a major new cycle upleg from here,.
FWIW - I favor ..and its just a 'guess' based on experience .that its A..now B ...and I think the CB 'bank save' just goosed it ...into what cd be a retest or truncated B ....but I cannot totally rule out the 5th ..but it doesn't 'look right' especially on the comp. The retracement was too big to be 'naturally' a 4 ..now 5 ...
..but materially on bigger picture its moot to me ...obviously for trading Swing /ITor shorter it matters and I continue to track the model calls on those -
- currenrly most likely in '4' type wave with a 'retest' lower ..THEN a '5th' type wave up ..I guess into Oct.....but as I said, RISK of truncation and or unorthodox failure is increasing ..especially as retail continue to BTFD.
There is the 'bounce' ...if we now start to turn down impulsively ..we are on track for big down swoon early next week.
Propriatary ( and more reliable) real money sentiment is showing me berarish signals here ( way too much BTFD especially in COMP ...also signals that at very high win/loss has led to market weakness ) .
LQ same
VIX same
but its only a game of odds ...a game that can be stampeded by the CB's ..hopefully they don't have another excuse here to do so.
Aug 31st -
"If I had to 'guesstimate' ( we need a better word - )
- We are completing or compled iii of some sort of 5th here .likely of an Ending Diagonal type terminal and trunction is 50/50 short of recent IT highs
OR
- in 'c' of some B wave up still part of IT pullback
tbd"
Still cd be either BUT - tomorrow cd decide it ...If we make a 'lower low' from today's down move, then, I strongly favor completed B ..now C down ..... if its 5th up ..we 'shd' take off tomorrow to upside .....so price in this case is best 'signal'.
BOND - doin' the expected so far.
TNX - I makes sense to me ..that If this setup executes it coincides with TNX making a new high and inducing 'panic' ..similar to MArch but there TNX was just retesting highs.
Dollar is also showing as expected alot of strength.
Yeah just looking over the data we're seing MASSIVE BTFD ...so, odds increasing of C down ..and target is obvious and surprising 4250 area ....hmm ..if this plays out ..i'm not sure we get a full 5 up ...to finish this CB induced MONSTROSITY ...i think we entering a very complex confusing period that will ultimately end with some kind of truncation as we say in wave world, or 'complex terminal' ... with alot of divergences into say November before a really impuslive down move across all global indexes finally takes hold .of course...do boyz = now da Algos' won't allow that until Retail is totally on the wrong side ...which they are right now BTW.
I finally have bit more time to comment -
- The move here has ALOT of RHYME to the Feb- mid march correction ...with us currently today around that March 7-8 mini bounce after start of C drop ( i ..ii of C) ...so if this plays out ...we get similar then a steep impulse iii of C down to targets....this makes alot of sense to me fractal wise ..but of course, it only the highest odds ..other paths are possible dependent on real time data.
* IF this plays out it wd be HUGE confirmation of the TERMINAL nature of move from Oct 2022 ..and final move up off any low made here in next 1-2 weeks ..call it a '5th' if we want ..that is less important than these structual clues. ..My strong sense our 'cycle position' is very similar here to summer of 2007 ....and the outcome cd actually be quite similar IF the PTB don't want to sink the Titanic this time around...which IMHO wd be RISKY to extreme ..but they control the master plan I guess.
5 minor down! ... so if we now get a choppy bounce and or more drop I look for this to be that RETEST the ST model was looking for ...EOM had alot to do with holding that off .... this is all getting very choppy and complex which fits the TWO highest odds paths I gave.
FYI - the PIN seems to be removed from Substack .(OK it moved - found it again) .so just hit 'NEw FIrst' ...not loving substack but no time to change it right now.
Nothing to see here :-)
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/2023-09-02_12-46-15.jpg?itok=h_3qnAgd
FYI - data showing large % of consumers now have revolving credit card debt at highest rates for long time ...paying Rents on credit cards ...
As mentioned I now I do the financials now for 100+ apartment complex - I am seeing increasing 'stress' - may queries about future rent increases as they can't afford them ...yet our rents are 20% below market average...so top end rentals are going to get killed now/very soon - we are so many calls people try to leave expensive rents for ours .... but I just fill last available rentals now 100% full! ... we are seeing people triyng to 'double up' even in tiny studio's ...its getting VERY DESPERATE ..and cannot go on much longer .... the Owner has been at it 30 years and say its more insane than 2007 as that graph shows.
As I said - the LONGER we Stay up in this 4-5 S.D. zone, the WORSE the COST will do once it collapses ..because the larger the debt built up will be....and longer it will take for prices to drop far enough to reach an equilbrium most can actually afford ( back to the linear trend line)
OH its all getting really interesting now!!!
TNX/TLT - i said yesterday, doesn't look like the major turn setup ..that bulls really needed ..TODAY it definitely doesn't ... the drop look corrective very high odds on TNX (TLT) ... maybe we get more games ....but this wd likely kill the ONE BIG TREND chance bulls had if bonds could have topped here ...I don't see it ..infact, this likely means the long the grinder goes ..the bigger /longer the breakout will be ...I just have spider sense all year, and longer ..than TNX wd eventuially reach 55+ due to RTE of COVID move...and other reasons ...we are FINALLY getting toward I think on bonds the INFLECTION ZONE which will crack the debt/credit bubble.
Stocks - churn down so far where I expected...but the NEXT MOVE I think is VERY KEY ..the models are clear, this kind of setup either means
- a power next leg up ( 5 of 5 high odds) next week OR
- a powerful move down ..which cd just be part of longe rup move terminal ED, or a C down ....or a 3 down.
We are moving toward final anwswers in Setp ..I think the shell game is nearly over.
MAJOR HEADS UP !
PREDICTION - Data on debt/credit tells me there is NO WAY now that the bubble holds together into 2024 Nov election ....It's beginning to burst now ... once that starts its an avalanche ...best they can do with $ giveaways is try to SLOW it ...but i'm doubtful the Biggest bubbles and collective 'everything' bubble can be duck taped for next 14 months ...
- so this has BIG implications
Infact, the FED are directly responsible for engineering this to be FAR WORSE ...as we know, by engineering the bubble 6 T QE, then deliberately slow to do QT and raise rates ..staying behind the curve ..they STILL are ... ...so sure they SLOWED the collapse ..but now the result due to AREA UNDER the CURVE of Debt collapse will be worst ever seen ..this is HORRIFIC and I FEAR for us all ...hopefully they can do one more save /up cycle in 2025/26 ...by all means push it out so I can find a hole to hide in for 2030+!!
UP into END of MONTH for Nth time ...as said few days ago ..its a running 'joke'.
High order Trend WInning the 1st round here off key suppport
But ST model is now at extreme's that in almost all cases lead to either 'grind up' or 'pullback'...
Then - we will see once September gets going next week if there is some payback to these anomalies and extremes
Dollar dropped here in support - part of the 'new LQ scheme'
TNX - dropped but NOT is way that wd indicate a reversal to me on Setup I had ..it looks more like a pause but next few sessions will show me on signals.
CRedit signal as close ot 'holy grail' as I have ... I definitely will never bet against it going forward.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODYzNjQ1NV8yMjAwMzYzNw
If I had to 'guesstimate' ( we need a better word - )
- We are completing or compled iii of some sort of 5th here .likely of an Ending Diagonal type terminal and trunction is 50/50 short of recent IT highs
OR
- in 'c' of some B wave up still part of IT pullback
tbd
Up it is - right on queue ..but alot of anomalies here ...so will need to keep going up!
HEADS UP - Anomalies are building on my models ... I think things get more interesting from here ..more volatile than we've seen for a while ...with predictable hook that we are up into EOM!! it's kind of joke at this point!
I actually find this crazy interesting this sort of setup -
- We have the higher trend trying to complete with a final wave up BUT
- we have Shorter term cycles not complete and throwing up big anomalies
- then we have CB post effect of possible RTE ..though, LQ is actually high right now ..but
- LQ is in a dangerous area of a big down reversal or some kind of blowoff/reversal
THEN TNX is also at key position I mentioned - down today, b ut need to keep turning down or I see big move up coming off next test of upper resistance
Sept is shaping up to be 'fun'. :-)
last night video - finally :-)
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/market-update-550?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-2b7d0558-1a38-41ef-80e7-6abba8a1c865
Yet ANOTHER GAP UP - something anomalous there 6th in row!!
But market meh since the open ..so no real clues on that short term...but failure by say wed AM to take off*( to upside breakout) ..and I think we get our retest.
OH - I just noticed something - on volatility ..I did backtest and it appears to have never happened before ...so an 'anomaly' ...but points possibly to a massive insider trade + the distribution signals today ...IF confirmed by failure to take off here ...then this wd add to suspicions!!!
YEP - TOMORROW looks to be a major informational day for te bigger picture
ST Model is CLEAR HERE
- Either we 'explode higher' tomorrow AM - gap up /run Otherwise
- we are going to top out again, and at least get a retest of 4350 ...potential for lower now.
HEADS UP - today is showing potentially BIG DISTRUTION due to LQ to price differential and VIx signals .... BUT to confirm, I wd need to see a faiilure of this bounce tomorrow AM by no 'big upthrust'....if so, I think today is very dangerous signature on the model tbd
TNX/TLT feed into the ST setup I think - I have a couple patterns there ..if TNX say doesn't break down hard by wed ..I look for it to shoot for 45 area.
HEADS UP - the Volatility model is very negative here on the IT timeframe ... this puts high odds ( barring another endless CB intervention ) that EVENTUALLY ( and that is key word ) we'll get a 'lower low' here after whatever magic is conjured on this current bounce ( looks very B wave'ish to me).
I would love to post a long video and go over everything ..life is just not cooperating! I am still closely following all data and models but its take time and energy to post video's ...MAYBE tomorrow LOL ...at this point there is alot to talk about ...I am chomping at the bit to talk over ...but another week won't make a difference on most of it ... we have discussed alot of it in the comments ..but the data/charts paint a different picture.
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/market-update-550?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-2b7d0558-1a38-41ef-80e7-6abba8a1c865
IF TNX takes out 45 to upside All HELL is going to break lose in bond market my work shows...so this is massively important inflection point for TNX here ..do or die ...if it dies and drops it will be initiaally bullish for stocks, but then signals oncoming recession ..i still think breakout is higher odds and indicate end of the 'experiment'.
So - the most likely road map is very clear here
- B wave bounce currently ..(A down) now B
- then C down to complete an IT down move .
Price targets and timeframe - roughly 4300+-1% ...for IT low, and say sometime in Sept.
THEN - a final IT up move is still highest odds ...BUT - targets and timeframes too far out for me to project but a good 'guestimate'
- minor new highs for the cycle up move on SOME indexes but not all
- a risk of a MAJOR TRUNCATION of the move short of the highs
NOW - this is IMPORTANT - that TRUNCATION cd infact be far more signficant IF ..certain events unfold ... so then, the 'last leg up' wd be more of just a swing bounce or IT bounce that is short lived OR conversely long lived but lame and exaustion in nature.
In other words - WE ARE ENTERING an INSTABILITY REGION in the SYSTEM ...this is how instability manifests in markets. Normally, I woudl say we could see an 'overthrow /overshoot' but most of what I look at is against that here quite strongly - so for now I put that low odds.
Btm line - it's going to get increasingly 'interesting' :-)
I think the final up move has begun now (Wave 5 of c of b) - and am targeting mid-September to mid-October and 4,650 for a top - that will complete the 'b' off of the 'a' low at 3,491 and lead to 'c' down - which will target 3,491 for a flat minimum or possibly down to 2,200 maximum, FWIW
'tis possible ...but the signals right now make me believe we have more downside to come still ...but either way ..were getting getting to to the 'fat lady' stage!
3,233 and 2,741 are also downside candidates
If its A-B - then C those targets are high odds.
If this we labelled 'B' is infact still 5 primary and likely truncating ..then no downside target we can believe right now is likely low enough ...tbd
Its all going to come down to the really big question - Is there ONE more down then Up cycle left in this Game? so down to say 2025/26 then up to 2030'ish ..then 'the end' Or is it now ... I think its impossible to tell until we see how this unfolds ...I think BONDS are more important ...it depends if we break above 45 here ...also, how fast bonds come down once it breaks the credit 'economy' ....then ultimately as usual, whether the ONE trick pony CB's decide its time, or one more save - I don't see how we can go more than one more cycle because even that will take likely 10-15T of QE or same other new scheme .... a 'loss of faith' event is then high odds and getting out of CB's control.
May we live in interesting times - and then some! !!!! All this ignore other big issues we need to factor in - the PTB other games likes wars , pandemics , ufos and whatever else they could execute..and of course 'civil war' then have simmering ..for 2024?
Quick comment - today was pretty much what I warned ...now we enter the 'decision window' -
- if tomorrow reverses today back up ..then, I dunno' ...in decision for while longer.
- but if tomorrow is sideways then I see at least a lows retest for the move
- there is also a setup here for big down day again or one following a narrow range day.
So odds favor a retest of SPX of 3430-3450 ...and it what happens THEN ..that is key ... we wd be back at 'do or die' zone - I'll need to see how models look at that point in real time ...assuming the anomalous save back up doesn't occur tomorrow.
* one of two amazing signals through the madness that work, only a few losses
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODYxMDcyOV8yMTk2ODgxMw
* this is the best ... works slightly shorter timeframe ..the two can be used together therefore
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODYxMDc0Ml8yMTk2ODg0MQ
I see another CB intervention right here ..porbably due to Powell speech etc ..hopefully just a short one we usually get around speeches ... as signals/setup are VERY clerar for more DOWN and test of pivot below.
FIFTH GAP UP in ROW on SPX!!!!
Turned down..so that test is on.
MASSIVE SUPPORT here ...so if we break support, market is in huge trouble as won't break it any other way now!
No time right now - but this move up is CRAZY BS - totally corrective but being JAMMED OVERNIGHT ..so I'd say 'Bots ... someone big doesn't want us to make the lower low and break those technical levels .this is what it tell me ... CB's? cd be
So we are now going to see likely some big volatility ..because when you fake the market this insanely ..there usually is air pockets back down when u finally end the program etc ..... no idea where that it of course !
I'd say this is HUGE CONFIRMATION we are entering final weeks/months of this massive CB intervention ..I guess they have a date in mind and wont' let market fall apart until then .e.g usual autumn b.s.
Powell speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow 10:05 am Eastern Time, FWIW
Looking at ST model - after whatever upside opening jam job again ..there 'shd' be some pullback ..even on the biggest ramps these signals have held ...so, we'll see ..if not ..something 4-5 S.D. is going in on ST ...cd be some sort of blow up type deal.
YEP - and signals show high odds of at least some more downside here..when I get time, i'll show the best signal that has worked literally through everything...making me reconsider day trading :-)
I am crazy busy today - and tomorrow ..so likely no posts ..I said a fair bit recently ..will update again after that..prob's wed ... this looks 'corrective' but 'they' can turn anything ..so lets see where we are latr in week.
TNX looks very dangerous here price pattern on BB ... it has parabolic looking characteristics...not necessarily fast ...but it looks like a slow motion parabolic to me.
If so..that is BIG trouble.
Gap down to next target zone which MUST HOLD - we are getting the predicted bounce here ...this one MUST BE MORE than another GRINDER UP ....needs to be a strong upward reversal I feel ...otherwise ...if this rolls over again ... we are going to trigger a whole bunch of technical breakdowns on my system - rare ly wrong ..unless CB steps in ...which seems very unlikely given last 2 month of CB magic and current draining a bit.
Have been absent for a while, went on vacation, then got covid.
I have been reading that Warren Buffet sold huge into the last ramp, so it was all for him. On the other hand Michael Bury made a huge bet, 90% of his net worth on spy and nasdaq puts which expire at the end of the year, so that may be the floor for now. We will see. The algos are just incredible now, and TOS really sucks, so I will be looking for another trading platform.
Good to hear from u Ilya - sorry to hear u got Covid again ..hopefully ur recovered.
HEADS UP - we have an important Price signal on SPX and comp here I call 'outside inside' - it works on everyframe ..but the longer the timeframe the better the win/loss probability - daily is very good odds....this is on the weekly ! ... I will show and tell later.
** ALSO - Its VERY CLEAR to me here
TODAY Must be the Swing/IT Low or at most a retest ....If there is going to be the OBVIOUS 5th wave up .or 'one more slightly higher high' over next few weeks.
If we make another low from here - system puts odds very high - we are seeing a 'RTE' event - eitehr due to CB ending their b.s. OR due to just simply natural order re-estabishing.
Whether I label that 'end of the B wave' now C down (always the fastest ugliest..and possible crash waves in history) Or count the up move as final 5th of Primary/supercycle and then new bear ...only will matter down the road.
Everything looks like we get 'one more IT up wave' to complete al the patterns - but experience shows me that is exactly when we often do not get the FInal up move in modern markets ( or on down sides)
btm line RISK is off the charts here on long side as i've said for a while ...it just seems almost nobody realizes it! ....and sure, we 'might' get the obvious last IT up move ...but the upside if VERY limited....but the DOWNSIDE potential here is literally 'off the charts'
FED FUNDS RATE & Election year 2024
Been thinking on this - I think we get another 0.5pt here so to 6% or even 6.25%
I see the Biden idiocracy spending even more crazily ( is that possible? ..why not mail 10k to all voters ..it not real afterall..rule nothin' out at this point !) ... so cd rates go higher? I'm doubt it ..more likely, it will just mean they STAY HIGH and for LONGER than they wd otherwise ...into mid 2024....as economy goes over a cliff ...and maybe the Dems can paint over it before Nov but I have serious doubt about that .....I think we will be in steep decline by then ....and as I said, I believed the PTB plan was to put DeSantis in ..this time or maybe next ...so they have remove Trump ... that plan is well into action isn't it LOL ! ...... if DeSantis is the plan, than the CB will let it collapse into nov 2024 so Biden loses ..otherwise they will no doubt pump a bit so to be 'neutral' ( try not to laugh ) ...but I think the market will be looking 6-9months ahead no matter what I hate what it sees ...and 2nd Biden term will be end of USA and cd be th eplan ..sort of Bush(Jnr) term 2000+ and that disaster on steriods....so alot depend on PTB lever pulling as usual ...but I think we've peak or peaking on the Up cycle herrre again ..and next down will be as said alot more 'direct' ...id say closest analogy is 2007 to now 'ish near term ..but hard to say 2024+ ...pretty much it might be a repeat ot that OR the 'end of system' event ...tbd
fyi VIX is very highs going to tag 20 area before better chance for IT type low here ...
I haven't update this ..but it pretty blood obvious setup .. picture paints etc where we are
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODU4NzYxN18yMTkzNjExOQ
Yep - DODGY CLOSE ..spike up excitement then reversal ..still looks very 4th wavy.
Don't hold me to it - but, this looks very '4th' wave'ish ...cd be a long grindy sideways move ..then a final down shot in 5 .....sometime next week.
* if so, that means Trouble ...basically any lower low from here spells Trouble for market
Bounc lks corrective on Comp - but impulsive on Dow - Spx mix ..
TNX get bounce here predictability at highs retest ..but TLT still likely has more selling ...so I think it won't be much ...problably the last bounce before both breakout and panic system..
More grind here..so as I said yesterday and now we tagged first target area 4400....this looks to me we go onto to test next pivot 4350 ..or even lower bound 4325 ....... I do expect more bounce attempts ..and likely if/when we get a plunge..that cd be where bigger /longer bounce comes .
If we were to drop like this through 4300 ..then huge trouble coming now.
RISK very high here ... tomorrow looks very important ..more when I have time ... Credit signals telling me this mostly..more and more looks like CB are reversing whatever the hell they did.
Technically - a failure to hold 4320 'ish on WEEKLY OR muilti day closes will give me a powerful 'open jaws' signal ..and target of 4150 area in a flush move down ...so its getting very important now ...RTE on LQ is increasingly possible as I sad
Yep 4365 tagged and close near it ... well see if it bouces in AM if not ..shd get to that next key pivot zone as said ..then that will very important 'well see' zone. for IT and potentially Big picture
TNX retesting highs - check TLT closing gap - check
I made some additional comment last night on prior days threads might want to read.
Right now, Comp is leading and closest to 'technical trouble' than SPx and Dow is strongest ....we cd see usual index divergences to confuse here next few weeks.
TLT yep.
This seems too orderly to me on downside...real 'safe grind' ...I wd not be surprised if we bounce soon but ultimately get a sharp technical breakdown ....then a proper bounce is MO of this SICK SICK CB
distorted computer simulation.
AH - LQ just finally took a bit of a dump ... that plunge is likely close here with alos TLT dropping as I mentioned into gap ..... what we do then is likely the KEy to where we are going!
LQ infact ..look set to drop hard ...i will keep an eye ..will be informative
Ironically or maybe more simulation - the CBOE is now opening high and dropping into closes as we drop ...whereas as I pointed out during the latest CB upward simulation, it did the opposite vary 'mysteriously' ... smoke ..mirrors etc LOL
And then CRAZY puts added right at close - right now, I am no longer using put/call data ..it seems totally useless and fake for last 4 month ... for sentiment I now rely on other less watched data that seems far better read ...
4400 check
But this now look much more like IT Move to test KEY BREAKOUT PIVOT @ 4325-4350 ..that crazily is where 80+% of the money flowed in from on the 'breakout' !!! ...so it MUST HOLD or a major technical break is at risk .... wd require likely yet another CB SAVE if that happened.
One step at time ..I don't think many understand Technical since CB have made make believe so many times and for so long - but when the CB is OFF the tape, and possibly now in an RTE as I've explained (tbd ..not clear yet) ...then these technical matter 100% ... and its only 1.5% below which is truly hard to believe given the mania/euphoria for months we have seen!
SO to ADD to my comment last night - and I will when tiime allows back this up as usual with 'data/math' - but i'm getting my 'spider sense' ..I don't get it often ..I got it early 2000 , summer 2007 ...and just starting to get it now .... it coming ... picture a slow build of a massive Tsunami wave ..its barely visible yet ....cd take at most 6 more months ... but once it starts to build there is no real stopping it ..maybe slight delay as election year for worst of it ...as I said the prior minor top and drop was a REPRICE ...not a real bear ...what's building (and its early yet) here is much bigger degree .....and I believe, likely one higher than 2000/2007 .....unless PTB decide its not time and go even more insane for one more up cycle into 2030 ..but even then, we'll get something 'bad' to reset first ...... but early days.... most likely, we get a longer drop here THEN ONE more long grinding move up on some inddex into final top ... plenty of time to figure the road map ...but risk is rising of RTE reset and that doesn't happen ..I think its kinda 70:30 right now ...but if technical breaks occur ..especially spx under 4350 ...odds shift to 50/50
DOW - lks like A-B then C down coming
SPX/Comp - cd be same, or 1.2. 3... cd be running corrective
btm line - odds still favor more drop before end of Swing down 4400 Spx still strong target...then we'll see if this is 'all this is', or normalization move and IT drop ..tbd
HEADS UP - MUCh UGLINES is BREWING .. I can see it all over the longer term risk and other models ...I don't care how much lipstick they put in this ...from what I see its now just a matter of TIME ..not IF ... and it won't be a 'reprice' ...it will be impulsive collapse type move on large degree ... we are now in my strong view, in the final weeks/months of the secular bull ...and start of primary/secular bear proper.
Also - when I get time - the ONLY time in market history I can find, where the NYSE did NOT confirm the move on SP500 .... was mid year 2000 ....so in terms of the PROCESS ...with rates rising etc ...this very similar .... I don't think the OUTCOME is the same ....but it very rare.
And my suspicions are confirmed by data - I've talked about the evidence that CB's in foreign lands are the 'mystery Lq' I can't account for ...whether its others CB are the FED's behest, or simply ours with foreign accounts ... this is the answer .. no trend, no rationale, just out the blue massive indiscriminate buying of everything ..yeah, totally normal. LOL
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foreigners-were-behind-june-sp-breakout-record-purchase-120-billion-us-stocks
This chart sums alot ALOT of things I haven't had time to discuss - CB smoke and mirrors as usual .... btm line is watch this key decuision zone we now are approaching.
At best - the bulls get ONE more IT up move from here, over few weeks to month to minor new high ..then we crater ..but I don't think its a given because the upmoves we so faked by CB funny money ...the truncation just seen is big risk warning that we might 'mean revert'.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODU3MjA1MF8yMTkxNjM1MA
Imbalance showing TON of BTFD today..haven't seen that for while
TNX is at a critical bification here ! next day or so ..if it keeps pushing higher it rules out nearly all 'bearish' hopes on rates...maybe a retest of TNX highs then give temp pullback ..but i would favor this wd confirm a major breakout on TNX is coming in next few weeks...so important right here.
TLT is likely going to 'catch up' to TNX here as has GAP just below ...I cd see this being impetus for market to break down here to initial targets e.g. spx 4400
I've had bit more time to look over all models - bonds, dollar, stocks etc
I actually think its VERY CLEAR -
- we are essentially now repeating end of 2021
Bonds are clearly in 4 or more likely 5 up now - and 5 up is going to indicate massive secular change I went over ...
Dollar is less clear but likely turned up, or close to after one more test of lows.
Stocks are now entering eitehr a long winded topping out phase similar to end of 2021 or will just 'revert to extreme' down If CB's reverse their LQ injections of last few months to save banking ...tbd
THIS WEEK -
I think bonds will continue to sell off ..TNX moving to eventual retest of cycle highs.
Stocks - SPX high odds is going to test 4400 (1% below) the path to get tiehr is less clear, but could be mon/tue ...or if we bounce...a longer route .... the BIG question is IF 4400 doesn't hold, its high odds start of a RTE event from LQ .....and then 4300-4350 test comes into view ...and a failure there would confirm ...and then RISK on both sides goes high as
- we ought ot get ONE more IT up move to cherry the top cake but
- a true RTE by CB on LQ would screw that ... and so have to go one step at time as usual and not predict.
btm line - things are going ot get way more interesting in Sept-Oct
I'd like to make TA video tomorrow but depends on time/stuff ...to show some of what I see in the data.
Oh DARN - I types a massive post ..substack had a meltdown and lost it and no draft ...O h well I will try to recreate a bit.
What I was saying - is ..about the PRIMARY DEGREE SUPER CYCLE ...and that I am NOT so focussed on the current Kitchin business cycle/CB induced Save etc ..but the NExt one or even TWO degree of trend higher.
FOr me - this is the first time I truly believe we could have that kind of degree top - 2000 was no chance, 2007 had a chance but things didn't add up..this is first one with cake totally baked.
I've also said, its p4robably 50/50 if we get ONE more VIcious cycle here ..then One more up in saty 2028-2030 .... I was leanign to yes until ths latest CB alchemy to save banks ( no idea how they did it ..some new magic )
I was saying, this is actually terrifying ...because CB's are panicked and save happy, and 2024 is election year...so Dems will be even more insane spending wise.
KEy POINT - the LONGER we take to 'let the air out' of latest bubble, the less chance of that last up cycle ..the reasons are complex ..i've go over ..the simplest is ..because RATES will confirm 5 UP and secular trend change up .... and a DEbt/Credit bubble driven system cannot do the 'one trick CB game' in that scenario ..they WILL TRY ..but rates will shoot up..boxing them in faster each time..... we likely will see this shortly again now.
Btm line - this isn't like 1998-2000, 2003-2007 or 2010-2018, etc ...because of the change in secular rates ...which is ultimately a sign of loss of condifence in US$ are safe haven etc
KEy simple point - The Debt burned on lower 60-80% of Americans ( same in UK etc) is so high - due to Rent and food costs ..that longer this goes ...it risks we get Primary top now ..and not after one more cycle .
Now - I mentioned i'm helping a friend ..part of reason, is i'm doing the financials for his 100 apt property and also get alot time to get feel for wider economy as he has alot of contacts in business ..he had seen my work online and got to know me. I'm trying to learn entire property managment business and also dig it out of huge hole due to he is 75 and kinda of mile high, and previous manages left ..and big mess ... I said i'd do it few months to sort it out for him ...and then we'll see .... I'm leaning I might continue is as
- it gives me a perfect real world view into economy ... I'm learning alot on this...obviously I cannnot say specifics for legal reasons but in general I can say with 100% certainty that
-> yes, 80%+ of people cannot now qualify to rent ..and its across all states ...once the economy turns down most people will be unable to pay rents... or mortgages.
- people are already panicking about it ...but know they are powerless
- the biggest driving force of insane rent inflation is lack of skilled workers and crazy rise in those costs ....we are lucky is workers even turn up for work!
Anyway I have alot more to say on this ..but that gist of what my lost post said.
WE can use TLT as clear Example -
- count is so clear
- a move to new low on TLT wd confirm 5
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODU2NDg0M18yMTkwNTM4NA
FOr ME - THIS chart says it all ..Oh MY!
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODU2NDg0NF8yMTkwNTQwMA
But most important fact is as well, it would mean a TRUNCATION on the previous high !!! that is is so RARE and wd add massive confidence that SECULAR trend in rates is now UP ...with all that implies.
I believe once TLT bottms ( TNX Tops probably 50-55) .. it will coincide with that Global synched top ....in the credit induced 'economy' ...and rates will fall ..as usual, in flight to safety but NOT to degree all previous cycle since 2000 .....
* I think we are see a MIRROR RTE of that COVID move in 2020 ...here to the upside ...and note, in that case 2020 it wasn't until the flgiht to safety ended that stocks took off ...and same here, it won't be until bonds stop selling off ...that stocks properly top ...but in both cases the longer it took the more 'stored/lag' effect!
Only way they could stop this move in bonds is to crash the market and time is now running out for that to occur. They have played the balancing act ad infinitum and now it will return and bite them in the ass!
Absolutely Stubaby.
This chart is hall of fame clear Wave structure ..as u say, wd need negative intervention to force $ out of stocks into bonds to stop it playing out.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODU2NTM0Ml8yMTkwNjU5NA
Take my comments from yesterdays and add - even more likely now .... grind down to 4400 ..cd then finally test 4350 area.
Bonds also basing again here ...maybe more correction but move higher increasing odds
FINALLY getting more intesting setup here - beginning to NORMALIZE?
- LQ rising
- Dollar correcting ( potential 5 up ...tbd ..now correcting that possibly)
- stock potential impulse down and corrective here
If we take out recent lows today or tomorrow ..this looks to me a move toward next down targets I gave...then 'we will see'.
the slower we Grind down here ...with LQ/USD/VIX config currently on ST model .the HIGHer the RISK is ..rising ..that a normalization move is beginning finally ..which would then indicate CB have ended their latest 'upward simulation' ..THEN we will truly see 'what is what' and can interpret TA again to tell us the odds of 'next step' ....until of course, they do it again ...which I guess we just look out for bank issue s..clearly they will always save their buddies.
In MY VIEW - we are entering now a CRITICAL PHASE of the 'Breakout cYcle' ... next couple sessions look very important on the fractals ... if we do NOT see a BIG BOUNCE tomorrow ...or if we drop ..then odds very high as said confirming a DAILy SWING down toward SPX 4400min, comp 13600 ... But DOOR wd OPEN then to an IT decline ...and any move below those levels, wd confirm that ..and possible IT move ..which MUST HOLD spx 4350 ... of fractals wd be EXTREMELY DANGEROUS on the downside from there ..... so these are the KEy pivots for me ..indicated by many perspectives.
another Dimension to this is watching REACTION on sentiment ..which I am tracking closely ..its too early to be sure...but this is looknig VERY dangerous in that regard.
Same with BONDs - i still believe we are basing to move even higher ..see previous comments...I see nothing to contradict it ..and the lack of focus on market on this is typical 'crazy delusion' of Mania/CB induced detachment from reality we have all seen many times since 1999.
But the unknown variable remains the CB - the Credit model has been by far, the most predictive ...and as I said for months acted 'strange' ... it is NOW SHOWING SIGNS of NORMALIZIING .... its a process..but this increases the odds that CB's are starting to , or have BACKED OFF from whatever the heck they did that is outside of my model ..something new to save banking system that produced this ... ONCE I see normalizations of credit model, I wd be able to do TA and have confidence in it again ...as said/shown many times over last decades this true .... ideally look for then a RTE event into the Autumn where CB's 'take back' some of what they gave etc.
SO nothing new really .. my life is crazy right now ...once it also normalizes ha ha ..and market also ..I can update everything .... my big picture view as i've said has NOT changed.
I shd ADD - IF the CB Is done 'juicing' - I believe insiders will begin DISTRIBUTION heavily into the tech mania ( that's what it is ) ... and i will be looking in signals I use for that to add confidence ..see some early signs but it should be ELEPHANT SIZE signs if I'm right.
ZERO time to post - just when I thought things couldn't get crazier - Sons new car had issue and had to be taken back lol ... tire blew out on freeway!! ..they were very apolgetic but alot of drama .. and my mother in hospital ... whilst i've ended up trying to run large appt property for friend ..now full time as his person quit whilst I was vacation ... roo many balls in air, rains when it pours etc
Anyway - market - today put odds much higher that this is MORE than usual quick pullback ..ar least a DAILY swing down most likely .... monday will be another big clue for me ..and may give a road map finally ...
I WILL have some time at weekend ..to comment I hope.
So I don't have time ..but whilst I don't have any clear fractal/road map for the current 'breakout' pattern on SPx other than one I showed..which I feel is going to be close..or at least see some rhyming ... so TIMING is TOUGH right now ..here is what I DO KNOW with 1000% math
- the RISK MODELS (5) of them, are SCREAMING HISTORIC RISK LEVELS ....
as result of rising rates in face of CB pumping up markets - if I did math risk models for housing or 'economy' im certain they would be the same.
I didn't have these in 2007 - but I like to put RISK in same terms - we are currently I think now at similar to summer 2007 but with say 1.5 times the RISK ( distance of valuations of all assets from mean ) ...
So, sure, CB can keep pumping and assets go up ...but like last few months, it will just keep rising rates and doubly moving Risk levels higher.
We have NEVER seen any RISK l;evels like this is history - due to combination of high and rising rates, AND mania/bubble valuations .... we could throw in also still inflation/overheating 'economy'.
We are headed for a catastrophe ...anyone with functional brain knows it ..but impossible currently to say WHEN - so i'm happy to sit in cash and focus on other stuff until its clearer, as I said months ago ... buying or shorting this market is GAMBLING until the CB's stop their crazy games.
I will eventually do some TA and update video ..but its fairly pointless until I see proof the CB stop - not clear yet.... a drop of SPX next week wd be BIG warning though, and as i'll show, any move back under 4350 is HUGH warning, under 4300 puts us into 'crash mode' mathematically.
I don't have too much time but THIS chart I posted some time as per pink boxes ..seems pretty 'rhyming' to me ...alot depends where we go from here.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODUzNzIyOV8yMTg2ODE4Mw
Have a minute - havenn't talked about the 'counts' but actually they are quite clear and 'clean' looking...suggesting high LQ and high emotion .... however, its still not clear to me ..if this pullback here ( as per signals I mentioned) is '4th' type swing wave ... and 5 up to come OR 5 done ..in which case we finally have our first longer IT type down move ....comp looks more like that ...but only price action can confirm i.e. we need to see MORE than just 1 down day...need multiple .... IF when/ this IS confirmed ..as i've said ..that will finally give some road maps...positioning on the bigger picture and just what kind of pattern we are in .... I still think ones I gave periously are very much on.
BONDs starting to sell off/break through basing area ...hmmm.
Dollar still rising - I think 103.5 is key pivot - if gets above, we have lift off...else Stubaby count is in play with one more drop ...we shd find out next week or so...this is very important I think for stocks.
Back from vacation - long drive 11 hours! ... returned to bit of family choas .. so consider me 'out of the office' market wise still ... I will make some posts this week though ... as time allows ... hope everyone is doing good ... market is pure mania for sure ... CB one trick ponies again ...oh well ... can't wait to see how insane this one goes and how it blows up and who they try to blame it on LOL
FYI the BIG MYSTERY here ..is that LQ has acted differently to anytime in last 40 years ..and probavly ever .... in NOT supporting the move .... so I have to assume, however CB's biailed out banks did not work in usual way ... and so ..its hard to predict how this plays out .. LQ has been giving sells whole time and never gave buys ...its literally NEVER happened before ...
Along with that the CREDIT signals have worked ...and still don't have that SELL ..but I do have an more swing/it Sell here right now ...so 'well see' next 1-2 weeks here..I cd see some sort pullback but that key signals eventually needs to Fire a sell I think .its been dead on ..only signal realy that has been ..literally all other TA and signals have been useless as per usual CB MO.
I think we are really in a an 'exhaustion RTE' move ...and once we finally do peak out ...we'll get a fast drop .....and only then can we really get a read ...this has been one hell of a move due to basically ALGO's all trying to re-align to CB induced 'break out' - the evidence on LQ is foolproof ..its nOT due to retail etc ...though they are now 'all in' and then some ...but they didn't have power to move market ...
Had very little time to look over stuff .. one of those crazy periods in life right now .. but just looking over key things i outlined months ago ... I don't actually see any change
- I think this still the same BOX we had late 2022 ...we hits the box limits and stocks fell ...but then the banks went down and CB obviously have pulled another one trick pony out here ..sort of surprising but we talked about there obviously a TIMING to eventually collapse ..and obviously it wasn't YET ...but that doesn't change the DYNAMIC of the SETUP ..just the timing!
- So we talked about this B wave and this has goosed that to the max ...honestly, I say big whatever ...we are now just rapidly closing the BOX back in ...
- I said before the keys to BOX is to watch the DOLLAR first ...for a low in that 98 area ..I am more and more thinking we just saw it .... and if so ...the next step will be BONDS again ...they will finally break out up again...they have really taken time ..but that looks like major basing if/when they do break up ..I think its going ot be a VERY signifant long trending move ...not the quick 5th top I was expecting BEFORE the CB re-goosed the system here to save the banks ..there has to be a price paid and I expect that is it! ...
- So then I'd look for a sort of 2022 TOP REDO on stocks ...but THIS time, for a GLOBAL SYCN top that we did NOT get last time .... and 2nd ..I think it could be alot faster off the top ..and totally disbelieved ..unlike the crazy bear senitment we saw in 2022/23 ...the move up has gone full mania mode likely mostly due to Reversion to Extreme ...which means eventually ( and almost impossible to call where that is yet) ...we go full RTE to DOWNSIDE next time ....
I'm sure i have alot to add but I still see same setup ..just stocks got juiced by CB to save banks ..but in the longer run ..that is likely going to make things worst 2024/25 were we probably could ahve instead got a low
Mark I think the dollar has one more swing down (Wave c of a-b-c) for Wave 4 before Wave 5 of 3 gets underway, FWIW
https://schrts.co/dZBTnWYz
I agree 100% with your overview of CB save of banks and bond yields will soon begin a trending move higher.
out all day yesterday looking for cars in 118 heat! fun stuff ... pretty exhausted today.. market is hanging around now .... still around the levels on spx where the credit signals fired but did look like we were going to go to infinity ...really not much to add here yet ...
One of these days I will have time to actually post some proper analysis !
At least found a car yesterday for my son ..but has a problem so have to take it back to Phoenix tomorrow for them to fix it ... what fun! I hope not to have to go ...
I am also on family VACATION ALL next week in northern CA ....
Quick thoughts - DOLLAR didn't breakdown and maybe turning back up ...that is as said the most important issue here I believe into end of 2023 ..... will also effect bonds ...I sort of can't believe rates haven't gone higher yet . ..but I think its just matter time ..but the dollar collapse has helped stocks and bonds short term .....but now were getting to BIg picture Decisions on that...we shall see.
Where in California? I am looking to take my son to LA in 2 weeks and he will come with me to see the Sequoia trees.
that sounds fun hope u guys have fun trip ....we're headed to san luis obispo on coast
mon-fri next week.
Didn't have time to post today ... somewhat surprising move up against even the highest win/loss ST signals here ...this market is therefore as said truly in 'mania' type mode .... it really seems the CB panicked over the banks and how flooded the system similar to all the other times LOL ... more and more evidence this is case here otherwise we would get at least some 'normal' (for extreme markets) action ..but we aren't ... reminds me of 2019 when they pancked in later 2018 and did 180 and no signals/models could see that coming.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
nearly 100% expecting rate hike next week
up, up and away
Ground hog day mode here ... nothing much to add to recent comments ...market needs to show it hand here ..sentiment is mania zone on polls even now.
Yeah, slow boring market. Looks to me like its setting up for large move as soon as the boyz unload all the shares on the euphoric public/mutual fund managers chasing performance. It makes sense that the Treasury would use all that money it borrowed to prop up the market for now so they can't be blamed for the whoosh down later. I am sure some incident is already being cooked to be blamed for the "market panic".
It does that way!