Once more into the Breach
weekly update
Technical Update
Discussion of the Generational/Long Wave/K-Cycle or ‘Debt Cycle and the
oncoming SUPER CYCLE Top in process since 2022 into at most Nov 2024
Discussion about this post
No posts
© 2025 mark davidson
Substack is the home for great culture
AT DEC 16 - likely no video this weekend as too busy...but
Details
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/the-fed-enabled-apartment-bubble
- I NOW have VERY GOOD info on WHY the FED are trying to Jaw bone rates down FAST here and Pumping LQ ( QE Lite ) to fake it until it makes it ...
- Turns out..there is a MASSIVE BUBBLE in APARTMENT BUILDING just formed over the last 12 months ..due to the LACK of Supply leading to massive rent price rises .
- All the Wannabe Real Estate moguls have jumped from 'rent my house' to 'build new apartment complex'
- I had heard this from my contact, in my town alone about 10 projects started that would add 30% supply in next 12 month ..and my contact told me its National not just local
- I did NOT know though that ... data shows most of the FUNDING was done through VARIABLE RATE bridging loans ... I will link article below.
^ this is going most likely to be the main bubble that lights the fuse this time
It seems from putting alot together
- we have the Liquidity Crunch 3 month ago as banks froze lending
- FED did that massive pump ..to unfreeze ..it didn't work
- Then now concerned that the bubbles they created with easy money post COVID ..are about to implode so fast...that they need to Jaw bone/bring rates down rapidly here so doesn't collapse into depression pre- Nov 2024.
Of course - there are only two possible outcome in the apartments bubble either
1. They are never finished due to default now .... in which case that most be carried by lenders .leading to 2008 type credit crunch in 2024 OR
2. The FED here succeed in bringing rates down enough...to let these projects finish ..in which case
by larte 2024/early 25 ...a MASIVe OVER SUPPLY comes online in rentals ..and the prices drop hard ..and beggar thy neighbour into massive defaults that way ..just SLOWER ..which is the FED aim ...after Nov 24 is real aim.
HEADS UP -
Then there is also alot of noise about 'what is the excuse' ..they are lining up a CYBER ATTACK to blame it all on ..this looks spot on to me ..probably before Nov 24 is democrats are going to lose ...after if they 'win'.
PREPARE ...CB are giving us bit more time ...but at massive cost down the line here.
SAt 23
Looked over all my stuff now have time - well, ONE thing is clear, the only thing really
- the FED are PANICKED about something ...it has to be more than we know ..this is HISTORIC 100 YEAR FLOOD TERROR ... i could post lots of data, charts but its that simple. We can guess at what, whatever it is ... at most its Nov 24 away ..but no clue whether it comes sooner.
When FED remain in this Aboluslte panic flooding LQ - nothing matters ... but the distortion they are causing are literally unprecedented in all market history ... if this is their attempt to start destroying the financial system its convincing!
99% will remain oblivious in the Matrix believing the total lies .... and for all I know market rise another 100% or we top here... only the FED know the plan or I have to actually wonder if they do? the last 23 years of 'insanity' has clearly been controlled ..but THIS WOW! this is next level or two ... what the HELL is coming here?
As I said when this start months ago - no point trying to predict or do TA LOL in this CB EMP ...so that is my comment for forseeable until something changes. Retail are so Bullish Gaga here..and calls extreme there will be big drop once the LQ music stops but I don't that is THE top now ... I think it will come later and 'out the blue' planned ... like COVID one ... I did have some key signals head up for that, and early signs of that finally starting here finally ...
but btm line - its hard to say much useful when everything is a lie, the FED control everything and have gone literally insane (unless we knew why ..and has to be something as bad as COVID...not necessary a pandemic of course.)