- today is either 'c' down of iv ...or 'v' and done
- I gave NQ to watch
- SPX watch 6690 below that odds increase its done and new swing down ..could be IT down.
* intrday model data is 'different' to all previous attempts to end the infinite grinder ..so this has better chance of being reversal ..but this thing has more lives than a cat!
so following our best guess path - today is iv ...or v ..impossible to say yet.
TLT dropping -..finally ugh ..we'll see if this leads to completing setup or just more delay
dollar basing? same
I feel this is now classic of pattern i'v e talked about ..see nov 2000 and 2008 - though i'm not sure we are as 'far a long ' here but the whole thing is clearly controlled and planned TBD
EOD there's one KEY Signal on sentiment money flows we have NOT GOT YET ..its not an 'essential' because its Equalled the All time high on bullish $ flows ..but my statistical signal hasn't fired ...due to the unusla fast bear market int he spring and insane reversal due to the SIM ..just like covid one ....
- but its VERY CLOSE TODAY ..so i'd love to see it fire this week! that would really give me confidence on the setup ..post chart if I get it .
10/1 so massive LQ support today..especailly last hour yikes!
- if this continous ..I dunno' ..something will likely 'break' ..so more likely as said now EOM and 1st day out the way..it eases off ..no way to know though
- bonds /dollar doing nothin'
So tomorrow is 1st more important read i would say not the latest b.s. period is done.
LQ is STILL HIGH - so prices have closed gap without LQ dropping ..tells me couple things
1. SIM still trying to push up ..that could be a VERY BEARISH SIGN
2. BTFD r unning out
(1) could be bearish SIGN because why would the SIM need massive LQ support thur night, and Sunday night to gap up cash twice? ...not close to ATH? ...when I've seen it before
- many times, that is a TELL that ..however this exactly works I truly don't know ..but the AI/SIM 'knows' that if we take out pivots below it will CASCADE DOWN ....
- so as I said, I can't predict whether the SIM comes in, but its always sclera WHERE it will come in ...as now ..so we just have to see how this plays out
- IF/when the SIM stops ..I now see this as strong evidence a bigger longer at least IT drop will develop
9/26 - LQ pump at open as concerned ..but ..its not huge
- BTFD is OFF the cHARTS here as I said
So ...now ..this bounce is huge ...if more LQ pumps come ..then as said .we get a 2ndary even more extreme sentiment top I think will drop hard again ... OR we got a 1 ...now 2 ..euphoric wave and then big 3 down. TBD
EOD - its VERY clearly going to depend on LQ here ..there is massive BTFD but its a corrective pattern today ..so it would need an LQ OVERRIDE by the SIMULATOR to FORCE this back up to highs
- lets see what LQ does monday now ...if it pumps again to gap up again .then it favor that ..but honstly today..it was a 'weak pump '... I will look over LQ signals this weekend and see if I see any other data edge.
btm line - all else being equal which is almost never is anymore ..we are going to roll over from here into a big decline ...but as said SIM LQ has driven this relentless again ..as everytime we get a 10-20% drop since Nov 23. ..so we need to see evidence the SIM has been turned OFF ..too early to say that here.
- so we did drop to the area I was looking for the FED day lows....
- LQ continous to DROP here and take the SIM SUPPORT away But!
- there is a TON of BTFD and actually ..as often seen in situations of extreme's like this ..there is basically even MORE BUlls to bear NOW after this drop .
What happens next will depend -
1 - If LQ continous to fall ( see my comment last night) ..then 'eventually' the BTFD will dry up .and then typically u see a long down trending move
2 - IF LQ comes back ..then this drop is erased and emboldens the bulls even more ..which will feed into a likely new extreme top
As it stands right now - LQ is not showing any signs of turning up favouring 1st setup ...but often then change can occur OVERNIGHT ..so its the opens that are becoming key here.
- I think if tomorrow open is NOT a strong LQ up support ..then ...we are headed for the setup 1
ELSEwhere
- Dollar DID jump up as expected ..now 'we will see' ..If can hold here for 1st time and not hammer back down .I think we'll see upside fireworks on the DOllar coming
- and likewise if so ..yields will move up ..against literally everyone's expectations again ...i'm slightly surprised they are holding today.. .but I think its very high odds we get at least the move i've shown ..and if dollar does turn on IT or cYcle degree to uP.... there's be a lot fo talk about on bonds.
HEADS UP - If i'm right...were in a VERY IMPORTANT period as I said this week and next
- I said I need to be 'right' and see a decline - check but really looking over 'everything' I would look for this to be a much bigger drop . tomorrow will go along way to determine if that's the case ..ideally a big down day
- if this pans out ..i'll actually have something more to say lol ..alot of big stuff would then be lining up to discuss.
That key data I use ..that's been really infallible ..well...it given a SCARY SELL signal here ..
-nothing is perfect ..but it certainly is big warning
- as I said if LQ doesn't turn up here ovrngiht/AM ..then ..I favor that 6550 area will FAil and the 'swing' down will become an IT down ...and i have targets ..a 10% drop back to 6200 'ish
I said tue/wed would be ..and are..but now things are getting 'interesting'
- IF ..we DROP into the CLOSE and gap down tomorrow THEN ..
...TRAP DOOR is OPEN WIDE to BIG DROP here ...I don't think many people understand the 'math/physics' here and months of grind up have set sentiment to one way bull street.
Now, just in case ...if that happens some key levels
- 6600 is a 'must hold' ..or trap door 'opens' ..then 6550 FED DAY LOW is MASSIVE
- IF 6550 fails ..then I have A lot to say ..basically, it would mean maths wise ..and I know 'the sim' makes this time different but I don't think so on this
-- either ONE MORE FAST NEW All time high off 6550 THEN a VERY HIGH ODDS MAJOR TOP OR we just plunge ..and then i'll have to see.
Of course..this is all dependent on whether we drop into the CLOSE /open tomorrow - hence KEY IMPORTANT whatever word u want
ALSO DOLLAR HELD - so this as said is likely trigger ..IF now dollar takes off ..TBD
Equally - I am still looking for another spike up in YIELDS next week ...drop in TLT
ITs all connected basically .. let the show commence :-)
EOD - OUTSIDE INSIDE on LQ ..is RARE ..and in almost all cases bearish
- so ..we should fail here but ..the SIM has done thinngs never seen since Nov 23 ..so here comes another chance for it to 'override reality' so to speak.
9/22 - Went as was looking for ..but now ..tomorrow/end of week is the TELL ..do we now get more 'rinse repeat' test of high OR if follow through selling the setup looks complete as expected here...comp target min would be 22,000 area..then we'll see.
Monday 9/22 - Hey quick comment here I think is important.
So i read a fair amount of sources to get a 'feel' for what's really going on, and talking to a lot of people.
- ONE thing is NOW CRYSTAL CLEAR .which i'm going to discuss here.
If u want example, read this thread - I recently took a short vacation here in Alburquerque NM ..enjoyed it actually, great botanical garden, aquarium and zoo ....run by people who clearly care for once. Anyways....
My POInt - the REAL ECONOMY has been GOING O VER a CLIFF for 12 months as i've talked about ..and I think we've reached 'critical mass' from my sources...note in this thread the number of times and consistently of same TWO things i've also heard
1. PEOPLE Are BROKE - and people HAVE been BROKE for a year or more ..and are now 'at BREAKING POINT ' - is the phrase coming up all the time now AND
2. Prices are NOT coming down, still rising and JOBS are ASKING PEOPLE to WORK MORE /HARDER for not more pay .... THIS IS UNI VERSAL
Both are classic early signs of serious recession coming ..I could list a lot more .but this is enough.
So WHY does it seem MARKET IS BULLET PRoof ...well ...because the SIM is AMAZING AT PAINTING the TAPE ..it was only spring we have a 20% DROP!!!!
But IT HISTORICALLY ANOMALY for sure - ONE I PREDICTED
- because market is n't a market ..its mostly a PSY OP TOOL NOW via SIM ....
How much longer can this HISTORIC ANOMALY between the 'real' economy and markets continue?
- good question..I think this is also why YIELDS aren't plunging ....the smart money doesn't know the answer either
- I've said my guess and that's all it can be because NO HISTORY can help us anymore ..we have ENTERED the EARLY STAGE of the FILTER EVENT ...
- my guess is any time from Around HER NOW into 2026 at latest ...that's wide window ..but Cycle top or potentially PRimary tops are RARE...
BTM line - the 'fake Psy op' markets CANNOT OUTRUN REALITY FOREVER ..and we'rte already about 12 months into faking it .... I remain strongly of the view 'somthing will have to gIVE' here very soon ..next few weeks to couple months ..likely seem 'out of the blue' to Matrix of course .
EOD HEADS UP TOMORROW LOOKS VERy IMPORTANT as I said
- we shd be completing a setup here now ..i'd look for Tue to be a shooting star or reversal not another long grinder like today ..IDEALLY
- I'm getting more and more data supporting the setup
THAT SAID - this does NOT look like a MAJOR TOP to me ..so the '5' ..even if it is ..or variant ..is likely going to need sub divisions ..
Lets just go one step at time ..we're in a critical period for where I could certainly be proved wrong ..if we don't get the turn down here ... i've explained for months why this is unlike any period in history and thus impossible for first time even with my model/signals etc but still 'try'
Easier on Yields etc ..and dollar ..but they are also as gone over getting 'critical' here.
Yes - stocks still looks like '5' or i of v here( now in ii of v? see if it holds into the CLOSE ..if we drop sharply anytime now, its likely 'dunso' IMHO ) ..I'm seeing that key signal showing building down pressure from here now next 2-3 sessions unless I see a reverse to that.
Yields - rose ..but ...still need to see a bounce here on TLT and then follow through failure down (up in YIELDS ) to close those gaps ...still what I expect
Dollar sharp upward reversal ..need to see some back filling than follow through up
This is still the highest odds setups I see into end of next week - I cd be wrong of course..so much SIM ..but we do have useful data as well here.
- now that's out the way ..the REAL move always now come in day after or week after
- As said I am looking for TOPPING to current long term patterns
- Ideally on SPX - we'd see a weak '5' ..may have started in last hour
- my joke ideal target is 6666 because the low in 2009 was 666 and clearly simulation ..and so why not invert ..obviously ..not necessary but IF it occurred it would be meaningful ..we know 'they' love to send signals
Yields - I've gone over with dollar at length..
This as i've said has been unbelievable confusing/difficult BY DESIGN using SIM
- but at SOME POINT ..maybe NOW ..or not ..that is what i'm trying to determine here ..THINGS WILL MATTER ..at latest i've said into 2026
There's A LOT to TALK ABOUt - I've been taking a long break here ..it doesn't mean there isn't much to say ..not at all ..but i've just been taking some time to relax and consider where I want to go with thing in general ..not really this blog but outside of this ...we could call 'thinking' ...and running some experiments and its all pretty bad ..I guess thankfull most people are totally in the Matrix and oblivious lol
So at some point I will have A LOT to say ..but really its been 'boring' last few months with grinding holding pattern.
- But what happen NOW into OCt and then Nov will be important ...to see if i'm WAY OFF THE MARK or CLOSE to it TBD
Oct 7 - so yeah
- today is either 'c' down of iv ...or 'v' and done
- I gave NQ to watch
- SPX watch 6690 below that odds increase its done and new swing down ..could be IT down.
* intrday model data is 'different' to all previous attempts to end the infinite grinder ..so this has better chance of being reversal ..but this thing has more lives than a cat!
Oct 6 - infinite patience mode !
so following our best guess path - today is iv ...or v ..impossible to say yet.
TLT dropping -..finally ugh ..we'll see if this leads to completing setup or just more delay
dollar basing? same
I feel this is now classic of pattern i'v e talked about ..see nov 2000 and 2008 - though i'm not sure we are as 'far a long ' here but the whole thing is clearly controlled and planned TBD
My Chromebook sucks for posting charts but lets try this
- .shd show NQ ..and key level on current fractal waveform is 24950 ..any move
below there and high odds we are terminating ..
- otherwise it can continue in various variants still possible - III, iv or v still in play .only next moves tomorrow/Fri will tell us
- my Google drive shd be visible with this link
https://drive.google.com/file/d/18t2HUYM67Jt-c9Xv19lDnCavlZv3rVE3/view?usp=sharing
EOD there's one KEY Signal on sentiment money flows we have NOT GOT YET ..its not an 'essential' because its Equalled the All time high on bullish $ flows ..but my statistical signal hasn't fired ...due to the unusla fast bear market int he spring and insane reversal due to the SIM ..just like covid one ....
- but its VERY CLOSE TODAY ..so i'd love to see it fire this week! that would really give me confidence on the setup ..post chart if I get it .
10/3 Cd be complete iii here ...looks more like iii than v ...but
- often don't get iv v ...
Best tell is this drop ...here if it drops under 6690 impulsively..that's high odds complete and reversal i'm looking for here.
Yeah this is getting clearer
- I didn' tmark it up but shd be pretty obvious what i mean:
- the the recent swing down low, we now have wave 1..2.3...1&3 are TWO leg = Ending Diag.
- if monday drops under 6730 ES then likely 'done'..and see a FAST DROP back to recent swing low around ...6600-6640
-- if holds..then 4 ..5 up but marginal ..then same is my best read
https://screenrec.com/share/sm4OA0piIF
- Context - this as said looks like '5' completing from the spring low ..we are due a retracement of the whole up move here.
10/2 hmmmm
LQ dropped back a bit here...
- watch 6680 spx ...this is looking very Ending Diagonalish to me ..that will be a key pivot if so
TLT /yields not making a clear completion to any patterns right now ..
Dollar held ...now we'll see here.this I think is key over the next 2 weeks.
Looking at LQ as well my best guess
- today is iv of v of Ending Diagonal ..with a down, b up c down for iv ..then v up fri
or money to complete
OR we are further along an in v ..its possible still iii but less likely
We shd not go much higher in other words then look for another strong attempt at reversal, strong than the last recent one
10/1 so massive LQ support today..especailly last hour yikes!
- if this continous ..I dunno' ..something will likely 'break' ..so more likely as said now EOM and 1st day out the way..it eases off ..no way to know though
- bonds /dollar doing nothin'
So tomorrow is 1st more important read i would say not the latest b.s. period is done.
9/30 - EOM LQ support and big eOM rally as 'normal' last hour
EOD - now that is out the way..and maybe 1st day or month tomorrow
- maybe we can see SIM 'ease off 'the relentless support? ...TBD
- then looks for patterns to complete on everthing in Oct.
9/29 - there's out answer ..a MASSIVE RELENTLES LQ JAM JOB on fututes
- so it appears the SIM is still firmly UP
Last hour- we shd get an important LQ read
- signals show it 'shd' drop or weaken here
- if so - how does price respond?
LQ JAMMED UP into the CLOSE !
- so this is now some serious support ..
- need to keep very close eye on this ..I've seen this movie before!
LQ is STILL HIGH - so prices have closed gap without LQ dropping ..tells me couple things
1. SIM still trying to push up ..that could be a VERY BEARISH SIGN
2. BTFD r unning out
(1) could be bearish SIGN because why would the SIM need massive LQ support thur night, and Sunday night to gap up cash twice? ...not close to ATH? ...when I've seen it before
- many times, that is a TELL that ..however this exactly works I truly don't know ..but the AI/SIM 'knows' that if we take out pivots below it will CASCADE DOWN ....
- so as I said, I can't predict whether the SIM comes in, but its always sclera WHERE it will come in ...as now ..so we just have to see how this plays out
- IF/when the SIM stops ..I now see this as strong evidence a bigger longer at least IT drop will develop
9/26 - LQ pump at open as concerned ..but ..its not huge
- BTFD is OFF the cHARTS here as I said
So ...now ..this bounce is huge ...if more LQ pumps come ..then as said .we get a 2ndary even more extreme sentiment top I think will drop hard again ... OR we got a 1 ...now 2 ..euphoric wave and then big 3 down. TBD
EOD - its VERY clearly going to depend on LQ here ..there is massive BTFD but its a corrective pattern today ..so it would need an LQ OVERRIDE by the SIMULATOR to FORCE this back up to highs
- lets see what LQ does monday now ...if it pumps again to gap up again .then it favor that ..but honstly today..it was a 'weak pump '... I will look over LQ signals this weekend and see if I see any other data edge.
btm line - all else being equal which is almost never is anymore ..we are going to roll over from here into a big decline ...but as said SIM LQ has driven this relentless again ..as everytime we get a 10-20% drop since Nov 23. ..so we need to see evidence the SIM has been turned OFF ..too early to say that here.
9/25 - interesting! and may be VERTY important
- so we did drop to the area I was looking for the FED day lows....
- LQ continous to DROP here and take the SIM SUPPORT away But!
- there is a TON of BTFD and actually ..as often seen in situations of extreme's like this ..there is basically even MORE BUlls to bear NOW after this drop .
What happens next will depend -
1 - If LQ continous to fall ( see my comment last night) ..then 'eventually' the BTFD will dry up .and then typically u see a long down trending move
2 - IF LQ comes back ..then this drop is erased and emboldens the bulls even more ..which will feed into a likely new extreme top
As it stands right now - LQ is not showing any signs of turning up favouring 1st setup ...but often then change can occur OVERNIGHT ..so its the opens that are becoming key here.
- I think if tomorrow open is NOT a strong LQ up support ..then ...we are headed for the setup 1
ELSEwhere
- Dollar DID jump up as expected ..now 'we will see' ..If can hold here for 1st time and not hammer back down .I think we'll see upside fireworks on the DOllar coming
- and likewise if so ..yields will move up ..against literally everyone's expectations again ...i'm slightly surprised they are holding today.. .but I think its very high odds we get at least the move i've shown ..and if dollar does turn on IT or cYcle degree to uP.... there's be a lot fo talk about on bonds.
HEADS UP - If i'm right...were in a VERY IMPORTANT period as I said this week and next
- I said I need to be 'right' and see a decline - check but really looking over 'everything' I would look for this to be a much bigger drop . tomorrow will go along way to determine if that's the case ..ideally a big down day
- if this pans out ..i'll actually have something more to say lol ..alot of big stuff would then be lining up to discuss.
EOD Yikes!
That key data I use ..that's been really infallible ..well...it given a SCARY SELL signal here ..
-nothing is perfect ..but it certainly is big warning
- as I said if LQ doesn't turn up here ovrngiht/AM ..then ..I favor that 6550 area will FAil and the 'swing' down will become an IT down ...and i have targets ..a 10% drop back to 6200 'ish
Bullish settup on yields continuous
- here is different signal on TNX
-at resistance today ..but IF as I expect its jumps it ..KABOOM to upside is high odds
..hard to explain 'why' ..but this would be more technical than fundamental for now
https://screenrec.com/share/NFY4ZxcqmD
Critical weekly resistance on dollar
- if it crosses up tomorrow ...strong evidence of that IT/Cytcle turn up
https://screenrec.com/share/6a2BIzR4EH
note the correlation to yields
https://screenrec.com/share/zBvcUEus52
Just .. a HEADS UP - probably won't happen but
- IF they do 'take the punch bowl away' finally here ..and LQ keeps dropping for weeks AND
- Dollar takes off
I believe we would get a CRASH setup ..similar to 1987
It LOW ODDS ..but nothing would surprise we with these m*there f'ers LOL
9/23 - hmm CLOSE TODAY is IMPORTANT
I said tue/wed would be ..and are..but now things are getting 'interesting'
- IF ..we DROP into the CLOSE and gap down tomorrow THEN ..
...TRAP DOOR is OPEN WIDE to BIG DROP here ...I don't think many people understand the 'math/physics' here and months of grind up have set sentiment to one way bull street.
Now, just in case ...if that happens some key levels
- 6600 is a 'must hold' ..or trap door 'opens' ..then 6550 FED DAY LOW is MASSIVE
- IF 6550 fails ..then I have A lot to say ..basically, it would mean maths wise ..and I know 'the sim' makes this time different but I don't think so on this
-- either ONE MORE FAST NEW All time high off 6550 THEN a VERY HIGH ODDS MAJOR TOP OR we just plunge ..and then i'll have to see.
Of course..this is all dependent on whether we drop into the CLOSE /open tomorrow - hence KEY IMPORTANT whatever word u want
ALSO DOLLAR HELD - so this as said is likely trigger ..IF now dollar takes off ..TBD
Equally - I am still looking for another spike up in YIELDS next week ...drop in TLT
ITs all connected basically .. let the show commence :-)
EOD - OUTSIDE INSIDE on LQ ..is RARE ..and in almost all cases bearish
- so ..we should fail here but ..the SIM has done thinngs never seen since Nov 23 ..so here comes another chance for it to 'override reality' so to speak.
CLOSE - no clues ..so we are 'slow boating it ' and come back tomorrow for another data point.
charts
looking still for TLT to drop to close next blue box gap here
https://screenrec.com/share/gQS38EevaH
dollar
look to tag upper band
https://screenrec.com/share/XxqeSsHLBQ
9/22 - Went as was looking for ..but now ..tomorrow/end of week is the TELL ..do we now get more 'rinse repeat' test of high OR if follow through selling the setup looks complete as expected here...comp target min would be 22,000 area..then we'll see.
Monday 9/22 - Hey quick comment here I think is important.
So i read a fair amount of sources to get a 'feel' for what's really going on, and talking to a lot of people.
- ONE thing is NOW CRYSTAL CLEAR .which i'm going to discuss here.
If u want example, read this thread - I recently took a short vacation here in Alburquerque NM ..enjoyed it actually, great botanical garden, aquarium and zoo ....run by people who clearly care for once. Anyways....
My POInt - the REAL ECONOMY has been GOING O VER a CLIFF for 12 months as i've talked about ..and I think we've reached 'critical mass' from my sources...note in this thread the number of times and consistently of same TWO things i've also heard
https://www.reddit.com/r/Albuquerque/comments/1nmj5rn/where_is_everyone/?%24deep_link=true&correlation_id=6dd30dc7-bb21-499c-a890-14808bd1d09b&post_fullname=t3_1nmj5rn&post_index=0&ref=email_digest&ref_campaign=email_digest&ref_source=email&utm_content=post_title&%243p=e_as&_branch_match_id=1458352235138474503&utm_medium=Email%20Amazon%20SES&_branch_referrer=H4sIAAAAAAAAA22P3U7DMAyFn6a76%2FqTbrRIE5pAvEaUJl7rkT%2BclMINz47LgCukWHK%2B43PizDnHdF9VBMZg3qsY9xb9SyXiQ9F2Ip5AqrTjNhBO6JWVC9nTvLkKcS7aZz7ruu5%2F%2FDo4BsR1tuPyugBx8Y25A58Tt4131wP5zTcDgcQk4Q3oI%2FhtsBCceGg7AxDltkkhnjJtGUcdiMCqjMFLNMyPxoja6LtyHNum7IZBl6of6rLp%2BrofTWPqYWRfDCnLy2KtVw62OCH%2FdriJ6A28s1IzILhwB06hlQYnSPkGpVYuKpz8%2F2oKC2n41Rgu2UkdfOZfM%2F1%2BJmO2sPvkcSBCP8mRwpqATo8zBQdfXanrHYsBAAA%3D
1. PEOPLE Are BROKE - and people HAVE been BROKE for a year or more ..and are now 'at BREAKING POINT ' - is the phrase coming up all the time now AND
2. Prices are NOT coming down, still rising and JOBS are ASKING PEOPLE to WORK MORE /HARDER for not more pay .... THIS IS UNI VERSAL
Both are classic early signs of serious recession coming ..I could list a lot more .but this is enough.
So WHY does it seem MARKET IS BULLET PRoof ...well ...because the SIM is AMAZING AT PAINTING the TAPE ..it was only spring we have a 20% DROP!!!!
But IT HISTORICALLY ANOMALY for sure - ONE I PREDICTED
- because market is n't a market ..its mostly a PSY OP TOOL NOW via SIM ....
How much longer can this HISTORIC ANOMALY between the 'real' economy and markets continue?
- good question..I think this is also why YIELDS aren't plunging ....the smart money doesn't know the answer either
- I've said my guess and that's all it can be because NO HISTORY can help us anymore ..we have ENTERED the EARLY STAGE of the FILTER EVENT ...
- my guess is any time from Around HER NOW into 2026 at latest ...that's wide window ..but Cycle top or potentially PRimary tops are RARE...
BTM line - the 'fake Psy op' markets CANNOT OUTRUN REALITY FOREVER ..and we'rte already about 12 months into faking it .... I remain strongly of the view 'somthing will have to gIVE' here very soon ..next few weeks to couple months ..likely seem 'out of the blue' to Matrix of course .
EOD HEADS UP TOMORROW LOOKS VERy IMPORTANT as I said
- we shd be completing a setup here now ..i'd look for Tue to be a shooting star or reversal not another long grinder like today ..IDEALLY
- I'm getting more and more data supporting the setup
THAT SAID - this does NOT look like a MAJOR TOP to me ..so the '5' ..even if it is ..or variant ..is likely going to need sub divisions ..
Lets just go one step at time ..we're in a critical period for where I could certainly be proved wrong ..if we don't get the turn down here ... i've explained for months why this is unlike any period in history and thus impossible for first time even with my model/signals etc but still 'try'
Easier on Yields etc ..and dollar ..but they are also as gone over getting 'critical' here.
Friday
- wave wise for '5' ..whatever is left to upside i'd expect to come MONDAY or into Tue .
- THEN i'd look for Strong REVERSAL
- I cd be wrong ..i can't predict ..but the SETUP is CLEAR.
today - looks like 'iii' of v of 5 ...so now 'shd' start to see churning or even pullback
Yields - also doing there thing
dollar - pullback today..I look for a powerful up move coming off this ..or something VERY OUTLIER is coming
Sun 9/21
Update to this chart - tracking ..definitely setup for strong reversal up in dollar here
https://screenrec.com/share/tIuJxH1rdX
..if not .something is going on and could be big sign of dollar collapse! with all that implies!
9/19 -
Still looks like the setups ...
- we got this eye popping signal to add to growing list ..NOT EXACT TIMING ..more 'Weight of data'
https://screenrec.com/share/h7xLMA9Umu
TECH in particular is giving me massive warning on key signal .
- wave wise for '5' ..whatever is left to upside i'd expect to come MONDAY or into Tue .
- THEN i'd look for Strong REVERSAL
- I cd be wrong ..i can't predict ..but the SETUP is CLEAR.
9/18 hmmmm
Yes - stocks still looks like '5' or i of v here( now in ii of v? see if it holds into the CLOSE ..if we drop sharply anytime now, its likely 'dunso' IMHO ) ..I'm seeing that key signal showing building down pressure from here now next 2-3 sessions unless I see a reverse to that.
Yields - rose ..but ...still need to see a bounce here on TLT and then follow through failure down (up in YIELDS ) to close those gaps ...still what I expect
Dollar sharp upward reversal ..need to see some back filling than follow through up
This is still the highest odds setups I see into end of next week - I cd be wrong of course..so much SIM ..but we do have useful data as well here.
* charts in bit
https://screenrec.com/share/O5lo1M4TEi
https://screenrec.com/share/CHUleukmzF
9/17 -
It will take as said week or so to get answer but
- here is what I was thinking I marked last night
https://screenrec.com/share/byA2BpNtou
so if we don't rally back up ..then '5' was the post FED spike ..TBD
EOD TOMORROW is IMPORTANT READ
- now that's out the way ..the REAL move always now come in day after or week after
- As said I am looking for TOPPING to current long term patterns
- Ideally on SPX - we'd see a weak '5' ..may have started in last hour
- my joke ideal target is 6666 because the low in 2009 was 666 and clearly simulation ..and so why not invert ..obviously ..not necessary but IF it occurred it would be meaningful ..we know 'they' love to send signals
Yields - I've gone over with dollar at length..
This as i've said has been unbelievable confusing/difficult BY DESIGN using SIM
- but at SOME POINT ..maybe NOW ..or not ..that is what i'm trying to determine here ..THINGS WILL MATTER ..at latest i've said into 2026
There's A LOT to TALK ABOUt - I've been taking a long break here ..it doesn't mean there isn't much to say ..not at all ..but i've just been taking some time to relax and consider where I want to go with thing in general ..not really this blog but outside of this ...we could call 'thinking' ...and running some experiments and its all pretty bad ..I guess thankfull most people are totally in the Matrix and oblivious lol
So at some point I will have A LOT to say ..but really its been 'boring' last few months with grinding holding pattern.
- But what happen NOW into OCt and then Nov will be important ...to see if i'm WAY OFF THE MARK or CLOSE to it TBD
Lets more important maybe see what yields do
- I was looking for Yields to RISE and TLT DROP back to close gaps - contrary no doubt to 'everyone thinking' here ...i..e price in already ..TBD
https://screenrec.com/share/lnAd7ygT1M
and dollar to make an important low in this area
https://screenrec.com/share/UJ0yN5EuBw