My usual Unique Technical Analysis of markets …with a few ‘perception shifts’ thrown in …no double speak … tell it like I see it …don’t claim to know the future, only the approximate odds of up, down
I don't have too much time at weekends at moment ..but some charts I'll post here I think are signicant..if I get time i'll add comment but maybe in week when I have more time.
This one for sure if showing a problem for this bounce without CB LQ injection.
* climatic volume ...what i'm looking at here is TWO things
1. The lack of structure - its a straight line showing a 'one direction of volume' i.e. buying ..that's fine if price confirms a major low ..but now during a choppy price move like this with big drop day ( likely shows distribution)
2. The Magnitude of move ..looks RTE ( maxed out)
- now both are moot like everything is CB LQ injects but I think its less likely here ..we cna look at that
- as i say it favors a 'down volume reaction' next week
- As i've been saying ...very similar here to End of Aug 23' move
- Even during the explosive V reverse earlt Nov '23 ...it led to a pause/pullack AND
- i've said MOn AM is key in the current Setup ..
- I could show alot of correlated similar ..so btm line is
- Sunday Night ALG O ( a favourite for painting the tape) ..if fails to lauch another gap up painter move ...then I strongly favor we top out again and drop ...and like an 'abc' or 'abcde' ( I mean this) coming
What about LQ - here's a different view ..I've got ALOT of them ! LOL
There's alot going on here ..NO single view works well on LQ ..why i have alot but note
1. Momo tends to 'double spike' ..especially when gone extreme high or low ...favors a 2ndary drop here
2. Current momo spike ...has neg' div ...though if it can spike monday it could cancel that...but ST signals don't favor it ( I may post something on that later).
* also I configured it to either CROSS or REJECT at the 0 line ..and the current move is more likely to Reject which wold need to have LQ dropping from around here.
Bonds - Shimmy down In yields..looks corrective ..high odds a 'backtest' of that break out channel
Commodities - Shimmy sideways ..looks confirmed Corrective on higher degree now ...looks like we're BASINg for a BIG MOVe ...down or up? ...still more likely up ...infact CRB has a setup for massive blow off up move I'll post when I get time.
DOLLAR - I said today would be key ...and looks for up ..and Yep, Clear big impulse up here...so its '4' also looks done ... usually leads the box cycle but they have all unsynched a bit here with the shimmy's ..I expect a re-synch on next couple weeks.
Stocks - Gap up ..holding ..oh wait should it be closed by now :-) .the irony of CB's Computer Run Global system is - up moves are more panicked and sustained than down moves for years due to Asymmetry of the ALGO ...
..here's the current setups as I see it ..with colored boxes added.
On a RELATIVE Basis i.e. wrt to price ... we are seeing WAY more Retail BTFD Here ..than we did on previous Swings down ..and then Swings back up i.e. never sold, and then double down on BTFD
The way the Imbalance is calculated means I don't get accurate data until EOD ....even for intraday data.... but just eye balling it ..it looks...fairly 'eye popping' right here ..but once I get the hard data later ..maybe post a chart of two to show what I mean.
This has little Short term value - but starts to apply to Swing ..but definitely DOES matter beyond that.
I lean - don't hold me to it... THAT we are beginning a kind of 'fractal repeat' of the periods IT drop I posted the two setups for ...just this one has WAY more Retail Buying and zero selling unlike that one ....
So right now - from mile away..it looks to me we're going into a long process here of drawing in every last Retail $ similar to as bored saying 2007, somewhat 2000. if u look at SPX ...but I reserve right to change my view due to unparalleled CB insanity last 5months ...and the level of RISK its put into markets ...just overviewig what I see so far on this.
* I just noticed this ..TNX Swing signal close to Cross down mid-line This is IMPORTANT next read!
- Cross mid -line VERY high odds = DROP ..espcially if neg' div' (as now) But
- In strong up trend it doesn't drop or 'bases' .. so this is going to be important next few sessions ...
- my 'tape/gut' at moment is telling me CRB - Bonds -Dollar are building to BOX move - but especially Bonds ...feels like a slow burner basing period ...I cd be wrong ..but longer we keep holding technicals levels and signals align ... the more I believe in next few weeks ( maybe it takes longer) we get a strong move up in yields. which honestly very few believe will happen (even I doubt it..which is good sign majority do) ..( maybe with or without CRB taking off ..I'm still looking at that..but I lean to blow off in CRB - I have no 'news' reasons why purely looking at technicals ...news tends to follow as we've seen over and over..as 'someone' always seems to know ahead of times don't they>?! :-) )
What MORE charts Mark! ..believe me, it's nothing to what I actually look at LOL
- I noticed that this signal is a good approximation to show combined FORCED LQ + BTFD flows( like the imbalance)
- It shows we into 'extreme' territory now ...sometimes its goes ALOT more extreme bt those tend to be during those mega LQ pulses I've shown ...we don't have that here
btm line - the risk of selling is picking up this afternoon ...especially if BTFD's are 'all in' ..as this suggests is close ...tbd .. LQ also cycled back up high and appears NOT to be a strong pulse ..
- So I have been looking at price and model data for this move to answer is this just a swing down, or IT longer down move
- I am forming the view based off what data we're getting ..that this is VERY similar to the chart setups I posted this AM. (and before actually a few days ago)
-Technicals have weekend way more than a 'healthy pullback'
- Sentiment hasn't blinked ..even less so than during that other pullback
- the IMBALANCE has really caught my eye, we are seeing many spikes calculating now.
I do think this is very similar to those marked -
- I think we're in a process of drawing in remains BTFD'er and once it's down , we get a 2ndary drop. ...or possibly longer time wise depending.
- as to 'from where' it depends on how many more BTFD'er ..and any more LQ .. somewhere form here right now to just above the recent ATH 's ! ....but the posted boxes shows the 'highest odds' from here ...as I get more data it likely is possible to narrow it down.
I couldn't really say on Cycle degree yet - It looks like Major TOP to me ..but ..as I said, its quite possible if CB stepped in ( they did) ..we'd got into a longer series of new highs tests and drops ...tbd
- as in a C wave up ..probably 3 or 5 of c now ..so seeing how strong this is rest of today, and where any selling finally comes in, if any ....or Monday.
This ALL looks corrective now ... we're likely in a complex mess for a bit BUT
- this does increase odds we get a 2nd Swing down leg ...WHEN is hard part
We've got TWO positive Short term for stocks
- Currency support and hence LQ and
- another Wave of BTFD just like yesterday right here
I can't see us getting another down swing until both those reverse.
BONDS - got that next higher high yields ..from here..depends alot on CLOSE today..if we hold these gains ..then I look for another sustained up leg in yields ...if we reverse..could be more back & filling first.
Commodities - basing ..no more yet...but I still look more up than down.
USD_ ready to move up but looks strongly like some of that 'creative LQ creation' today in attempt to hold stocks up here ...as usual
I must say on personal note, that the last 3-4 years have forced me to focus on bonds then commdities/dollar in the box concept ... and result, I feel I have something more 'real' to look at even when the CB 'does the crazy' with stocks ... I wish I had focussed on this more earlier but everything is an evolutionary process ( if u choose to ..or is it really a 'choice' ..ah ..off he goes again ! :- ) ) - I didn't because frankly it less relevant to short term trading ..and wasn't until I moved to more investor timeframe I realized the importance.
Anyway ..I believe the REAL focus here should be TNX ... its largely trades technically correct (TLT maybe even more so ) ....and gives us our foundation ...
Today - NOTE the move up ABOVE the initial CHANNEL ..after a consolidation I marked ...
- IF as said we hold this into the close, odds increase we move up to gap close and even tag next channel above next week or so.
- This would 'make sense' ..given reality ...which is slowly filtering into the 'fake reality Matrix' ( today PPI) ... but we do also have to deal with 'traders' and 'noise' and some system ALGO's.
- so 48 to 49 is the next target zone .assuming we don't fail today.
- Odds favor we do NOT fail ..despite noise...as we completed that clear ABC..then have 1.2.3 now today up ...and corrective intraday today ....but ..it's a critical zone with 'news' today that can lead to wacky short term moves to throw traders off the scent.
FWIW Here is same model applied to USD ...I took it back 17 years
- Every single major Top in dollar TAGGED that Upper Pink zone ..some had retests at lower band
- We currently lack a Tag of Pink ..so it strongly favors USD is in longer term uptrend here ...though ..its same nothing about how convoluted the path could be ...we could certainly RTM down here ...but I don't see much on near term model to support that without a Tag higher first.
THERE are ALOT of ANOMALIES showing up ..long conversation.. Often this is bullish ...'cos is likely means there is system issues building and the Central Planners via their Computer simulator are One trick ponies with the SHORT term solution - moar LQ!
But ^this is a little different ..
- I would favor more of a RANGE type environment here for while ..rather than an TRENDING move up ..or down for that matter ..
- UNTIL the ripples from the CB last LQ Tsunami few days ago calm down which I believe causes these anomalies ... (Moslty RTE's not RTE'ing ..so to speak)
I cd be wrong ...but yeah...a. lean to a confusing ..choppy period here as so many cross currents and 'price magnet's in different directions at different degree's of trend.
EXAMPLE - this is on PRICE ..the one on VIX is INSANE ...and I've never seen it ..and there are others LQ ..also I posted. the 3 pulses and wide width ...
But simpler on price -
- Note the crossing down of Mid-band ..but FAILURE to TAG the bottom before
turning back up and cross back above mid -band
- That AFTER a failure of 61.8% retrace zone on all indexes ..
- THAT is CRAZY RARE ...I don't have odds but something like 90% time will TAG the bottom even if just for 1 min ( or less!).
- It DOES happen more often on 'news based gaps' as today...
- Generally when it does in my experience, as said, your in a very fast moving fluid flow ..when moves can ZIG ZAG FAST so to speak without 'proper basing or technical setups'
- I know alot about this one as traded it alot ... and absolutely HATED this kind of setup ..avoid like plague and USUALLY mess the HIGHER ORDER TREND/DEGREE is 'trying to find direction' ..here the swing ..itsn't 'sure' if its up or down i..e Indecision zone ..probably also IT degree infact .. I believe we are going to end up IT Sell and longer time wise sideways or down ..but one step at time...this is where 'bottom up' can help the 'top down' information for me.
- note. the DYNAMIC(moving with price/time) Band at low end is around 5000 rising ..its a Strong MAGNET for price to Tag it ...which would be very whiplash-e ... we shall see ...its even rarer to not get some backtest ...
now - Ask me why MAGNETs on Dynamics work? ...WOw ..Rabbit hole alert..One thing I know for sure is they do ..it's quite unbelievable actually ...and not easily explained so I'll leave that one for today.... the shortest but inadequate answer is ..because of combination of human programming, and ALGO programming..long version should get me a Nobel prize LOL ..another day.
There is one RHYME to that 1st box setup I posted yesterday..where it retested the lower band then went straight up in a 'c' type wave ...to MID- BAND ... its 'looks' similar here but many difference on model ..lets see today/tomorrow ..on that.
So - we know there are many BTFD's from yesterday and today ..the real question now is -
- Are there any SELLERS?
Yesterdays drop was on LQ - so that's not 'real sellers' AND
Todays drop was Overnight futures/Algo's
We saw a bit of selling yesterday after than BTFD frenzy ..I'm interested to see if we get any today .
* also gaps down on news almost 100% get closed immediately in the computer run market ..up gaps rarely do ..its the way of things .so we'll see - REAL moves as I say RARELY happen on 'day of'.
- LQ finally ran out of time and dropped ...as I said, was at max time limit ( whatever that is ? has to be that some account somewhere has to be net zero over that time period - only way makes sense...so, 1 gazzillion $ appears ..is used ...then put back - 0 balance over that time period).
- THAT was the drop first 2 hours
- Then BTFD came in once the LQ Systemic drop ran out of MOMO ...
- This was more humans than ALGO to upside ..and the '1 min dynamic' shows FRENZY of BTFD ..not even touching 1 min 'dynamic band' for 45 mins LOL .... as said shows current human trader sentiment ....not that they matter that much most of the time.
- Then we got some selling ...which looks like due to 'systemic cross correlation' I went over ..this DOES show that system is VERY SENSTIVE to $ moves right here ....so that is something I'll watch tomorrow ...dollar is close for me to move up strong ...as is Bond yields ..'cos they are basically 1:1 correlated
TOMORROW I think will be more informative - on everything ...I can't make a call on SPX here yet ..but starting to see a setup ...but I need to see tomorrow at least.
I note a drop on ES/NQ - this is nice next test because
- ES has a 100% foolproof abc up ..that, LQ and the ALGo attempted to morph into some BS. 1.2.3 up last 2 sessions ..tape painting is one of the AI functions.
- this drop would 'screw that' ...AND LQ is again in natural pause /to lower
ERGO If this drop 'miraculously' turns around by or at open - lets check LQ for another big spike up ... that would show the ALGO hasn't given up trying to paint this ...I am not inferring emotion ..it's purely programming - to morph correctives into impulses ..one of its favorite tactics started in 2003 + = as gives it guaranteed shorts to burn to pick a move off.
IF by some miracle the ALGO doesn't come in with the usual save - then this would be significant ...in negative way ..see setups I posted ..but MAY be then a retest tbd
FYI - this is what I'm leaning to as setups...also ..that one I posted on LQ end of 2021 - just for Swing to IT ...will depend alot on where we go from here.
FYI - Imbalance signals show a Significant buying imbalance today i.e. confirming the 'tape' I saw...that was very large rush/BTFD move today - MOSt of the time ..this causes a 'down reaction' within a few days ... nothing is 100%. ..sometimes they 'accumulate' and its takes longer - but its definitely NOT bullish here as least that is highest odds.
April 24 - Going through the Motions here ( thank u Kansas)
Bonds/Dollar confirming the correctives this AM ... I had marked this yesterday ..note the down rather than flat signal ..which opens door to more immediate higher yields tbd
Hey, I know I bang on about LQ and USD etc ...but this is ridiculous .(see chart below) ..this is almost 100% correlation here between sterling and SPX ...which is just..well..silly ..and I've noted before, alot of time. Sterling is more correlated than dollar ...but not ALL the time ..just to make it complex .
I mean, WTF ... is the CB rotating around different countries accounts and transferring sums ..that's only way I can explain it ..even then..it doesn't ..there is no logical reason for this hyper correlation. ...and BTW its also to Bonds ...which shows its SYSTEMIC and not targeting to a certain asset class like stocks ..
Man, we live in one crazy F'up world don't we?! :-)
Honestly, and I've been analyzing and trying to solve this puzzle for a decade, there is only one explanation I can come up with ..and its sounds crazy ...until u realize just how far off the reservation we are now, and as I've that is this -
- Money 'appears' 'somewhere' - it maybe 'created out of thin air' but MORE likely, its Transferred into an account
- the Somewhere is 'the system' which is GLOBAL ...hence the different countries ..
- is then ROUTED to accounts in countries who trade futures ...sort of like how drug money is routed to try to avoid being traced LOL
- Then an ALGO, or multiple buy futures ...based. on some very sophisticated AI that has evolved over time I've watched .. its not as simple as 'buy ES' ..
--> these are HYPER Correlations between asset classes Currency, Bonds, Stocks down to MILLI SECONDS FFS ! ....
What is Clear from ^this as iv'e shown/said - its 'our markets' are NOT ...they are computer and basically AI run ....with humans elements small ..and varying from maybe 10-20% down to 1-2% depending on. how much $ is flowing through the 'computer simulation' ....
Even I struggle at times to conceive this, but logically this HAS to be true ..and what's more I watched to begin ..and evolve .as said starting around 2003 ...and those % changed over time ..where humans were more 50-80% in 2003 ..down to current figures.
I guess so what?
- I don't understand how so few people see this, it's so obvious ..just match TNX and USD for laugh as well ....
- It shows majority of humans computers filter out information that doesn't fit their existing paradigm
Once you realize what it took to put this in place, and how much control there is, and WHY they need it ... like I said, you realize that 99% of everything you read about market, economies and even 'the world' is totally fake - a Matrix constructed to give plausible but false explanations to prevent the 99% ever seeing it ...
All of this I suppose is OK if this had no real world effect, but it does ...but that is a longer post. The simplest version is Austrian school 'Mal investment' ...but that doesn't even begin to touch ..I go over this another day.
That's a beautiful wave pattern on TNX ...and USD is same .. pity we so rarely see them on stock indexes!
- clear abc ..now 5 minor up ...( interesting that most of the LQ flowed into stocks this time not bonds...not always the case..systemic ...so depends on their natural positions)
- looks impulsive on minor degree down here the AM on SPX ...5 minor
- so bounce possible around here 5040-5050 ...see what that does if fails over then .
- Key PIVOT TODAY is 5040 ..down to potential 5030 Gap test from yesterday
- failure then would lean to failure of move and acceleration ...then see if LQ gets another 'out the blue' up pulse ...
- LQ has a quite large down pulse this AM ..surprising .but there again probably payback..not reading too much into that YET - but over next 10 days need to look at that CUMMULATIVE LQ pulses summation.
MASSIVE Market distortions here ...as result ...HAS to be a price for this EVENTUALLY ( with a week I would say)
- I've had this signal 10 year ..and I've NEVER seen it do this ...look at far right edge...it was already at EXTREME ..sell ..then 'doubled down' ... that's a FIRST!
- You don't see these distortions in 'healthy natural' moves or even 'health unnatural ones' :-)
FYI obviously No point on me commenting on market St here - were going up until CB ALGO stops...I'll. note when that is ...and then we'll see how much LAG before stocks drop back ..if they do ..I would expect they would due to lack of short fuel.
What is more interesting is how commodities, then bonds...then dollar react ..that's usual sequences after a LAG.
FWIW - this is clear to me what we have so far ...there is no simple way to show the LQ short term ...ALGO buy/sell points ..but close as I can get in real time ...
The Futures show the totally Forced 'override' wave pattern clearer ..but this is very clear to me ... we had abc up ..failed ( natural as LQ eased) then ..huge override to stop that mid-band cross sell signal ..that is a really high odds one .clear 5 down Into close yesterday ! ..these tend to produce very powerful moves for a day ..sort of like 'failed H&s' patterns.
- if the LQ ever takes out the red lines shown ..its high odds this latest greatest CB ALGO injection is over ...then we get the LAG phase as whatever BTFD come in etc.
FYI - Crossing down through again NOW - so another potential end of it .. we shall see ...or 4th coming?.....let's see if now the 'chasing' buyers come in.
I said if they did a 3rd ( and would need to ) would 'hit the limits' ...ha ha 'what limits' says this CB!!
..we shall see down the road what the cost is ...that's the things, it can take weeks to see what or even month ...so its ALWAYs going to be TEMPTING to PLAY GOD ..when the cost is so far off
>>But this CONFIRMS ..what we saw last 5 month and now ..that this CB for 'whatever reason' (obvious one and probably less so ) will NOT let this market fall at all and will go nuclear on any selling attempt.
The only way we get a real sell off ...is either
- the BOX ( which is on breather allowing this here) OR
I Must say - that's a strong reversal on oil to my eye .. it could even be a 1..now 2 'running corrective' and then 3 up ...which would be very strong move...
- looks like abcde corrective on oil..and similar on commodities indexes ...tbd but
it does NOT look impulsive down to me ..despite some very impulsive LEGS down .the C especially we got off that Iran spike up/down reversal ..the LACK of FOLLOW THROUGh is TELLING to me .... I cd be wrong ...but that's my read .
- unlike stocks ...price is the best 'indicator' on Commodities.
Bonds - dollar both look like ABC ..now in C down ....could last into 1-2 more sessions ...but I'm looking for both to turn back up to new highs for moves as said.
ACTUALLY - this kind of extreme I just noticed it over last 3 years only seen at either MAJOR KICKOFFS ( as I showed 5 month ago ) OR CLOSE to MAJOr Swing or IT+ declines ..not exact top as Lag. ...I could speculate on the whys'..but that I. just noticed ..makes alot of sense to me.
The Thing I'd 'love' to find out is why? ..it's fascinating to me ..part detective.
Does this mean there is a certain limit of $ floating around used to manipulate commodities ..and it shift arounds to different markets? LOL ... hard to believe that..
.. I really think it all ties to the DOLLAR ..I just never could figure it out ..why does Dollar DROP on LQ pumps ..then bonds/stocks are 'bought'. ( by ALGo) ..spend 10 years trying to fathom that one ! ...still none the wiser ..other than my OFF shore CB account theory ....but wouldn't they buy $ ....its SO consistent ...seen though...definitely dollar is sold ..
- I think it's due to all the LAGS through the system ...it just too complex to figure out...it just IS what IT is :-)
We're at a critical dynamic zone here ..the CB ALGO will know of this 100% ..and do everything possible to prevent a LOWER LOW from here .. if we can get one, despite its efforts like today... then...I have 1st big confirmation of major top here. - if we can't , it maybe the longer drawn out affair ..so this is key short term.
There is clear corrective 4th wave on ES/NQ etc ...and now minor 5 down into close ...the LQ machine is 'at its limit' but apparently at moment prepared to frequently push that
- is there a 'box' for LQ? ..there always is in this system .... that is the CREDIT system short term ..it snot as max limit but rapidly getting there ....its more the DURATION limit which I don't know what's behind that ..... probably some kind of Account limit where the ALGO has to cycle money in/out to be net 0 over that time period - its so regular, and that makes sense ...
-so tomorrow AM is probably hitting those max limits ..if there's going to be a 3rd attempt up here by LQ
- if NOT ..we shd cycle down and see powerful sell off.
TUE will be very informative on where the pin is on this donkey :-)
YEp looked over alot of stuff - market natural pattern is strong down from here...so with LQ machine at 'near max' ..this is another great read of intent ...because as said this is massive on the IT to Cycle degree ( I guess I modeled what the ALGo's do that produce those ..rather than when I say CB ALGO 'is aware'. .)
I believe what is occurring here is the AI/Tech bubble has burst ....and is 'repricing' whilst rest of market is still somwahrt positive ( see banking ) - historically that is also a strong sell signal ( banking out performing tech ).
So its going to be 'fascinating' to see whether the CB ALGO can hold the line ( current lows) with tech in 'fast river down' mode ...to avoid a trigger of these dynamic pivots being crossed .... real grab the popcorn stuff ! :-)
Just quickly on Gold, commodities - oil - bonds ...they all looks to be in longer correctives - 4th type ... ABC's ....of varying length/degree's ...looks like still more to go to put cherry on those ...but they could diverge here tbd ...
Dollar looks like maybe 1 more day of pullback then resume uptrend ...similar pattern.
CLOSESt MATCH to recent history - Oct 9th 2023 ...on LQ and price ... worth keeping eye on ...this assumes LQ doesn't continue going up increasingly fast ( its speed more that size ) ..I'll try to follow this through this week show these idea's.
Though - that bounce had better 'foundation' (BB support and other) ...
Its one step at time - because of this 'natural' then 'CB forced up move+ natural' rolling summation ....
- 1st very early signs I see the latest LQ injection is beginning to end ...too early to be sure .then usually LAG even on this timeframe to price ...all of which are nuances or judgement call though I think iv'e got quite good over last 5 years or so at it.
ALSO - way dollar is acting ..I lean this isn't going to morph into a massive LQ injection ...I cd be wrong ...but leans it just a short term 'stabilization' at that 4950 pivot as predicted.
Alot latent selling .. they will need to come in overnight I guess again ...but this is getting extreme on length and size of LQ ... will be interesting :-)
Update to the Chart we are following -
- as per video Sunday ...note the 2nd clear intervention 'momo jump' on this one and now extreme length of the pulse ... 3rd tomorrow AM??? that wd be 'extreme extreme' - close only to those mega pulses.
HEADS UP - I took the time to lay that out over the weekend because market observers say there is no proof of CB market interventions - which is alot like how the CDC see's no proof of damage from Drugs/vaccines ..because hey, they don't actually look hard - carefully for it! Surprisingly you don't see, what you don't want to see - part of the human condition of most people anyway :-) ..... because I wanted to know, I moved heaven and earth to find out how it worked ...and once u see it there's no turning back.
I've shown this many times -but I knew this was very high odds and great example to follow.
Once 4-5 years ago I truly realize what was going on, and it takes a while to accept like alot of things - you realize how truly 'sick' and full of b.s. the Matrix is ...as for 'reasons' - the market is simply a tool for PTB to use much like housing is , and 'economy' in general - we left 'free markets' or 'free thinking' :-) decades ago.
Now - surely if I can track and predict when/where this ALGO high odds comes in - it's tradable? ... yeah I used to think that LOL ...but, I hoped to show here how tricky it is.
I think it IS infact tradable if. you either
- have amazing discipline, time, focus ..and drive to do so ...sort of like elite sport OR
- can code an AI or automated program ..which is alot of work for this.
The problem is - IF u assume this will occur - but it doesn't, u get massive outsized moves, we equally could have gapped down 3% ....believe me I've gone through this loop ...so OK 'I'll just trade intraday or futures with stops ( if u can sleep on that) .. yep, but its never simple...like today..
If I wanted to trade this market ( I don't - I would pick anything but this ..commdoties, bonds, dollar ) ...
- its about identifying key pivots
- ASSUME they WILL come in
- trade with hard stops and avoid gap risk
Meh - I am happy to avoid this with longer timeframe as said 2 years ago ....but ..just sayin' ...I mostly track this simply to gain a 'feel' for what 'they' are upto - it's an ALGO .of course... but there must be some directive along lines of 'support or don't support' so somewhere a human IS making a decision. Only a true black swan could break this - never seen one ...but I do increasingly believe there is risk of one down the road here, doesn't feel close yet though.
HEADS UP - even clear FORCE ATTEMP here right now - really extreme! ..what a surprise!! :-)
It's difficult to tell sometimes - it start a 'slow burner' but then went ballistic - its best never to assume anything as I've explained ... these CB interventions are so extreme historically...
but this answers the question I had posed -
- YES - the CB will NOT allow technical break here!! ..not if they can stop it .and probably they can at least short term.
- its not huge ..and more 'time' ( stalling for time to let buyers come in) than 'Forced up move' ...that is because the vertical amplitude is Lowe r. (lower so far anyway!)
I think the issue here is
- lack of short pool
- AlGO selling (other )
TBD - could be longer bounce ..but I don't think that's the Swing low despite the efforts...I cd be wrong ...but I'd look for LQ to cycle down again this week and then we'll see what price does to get idea on that - ALT is CB ramp up the effort more...but doesn't make much sense to do that but as said this is the issue ..its a probability but CB recently are doing historic and insane things ..so..there's that ! :-)
LET ME CORRECT MYSELF - infact I see from detailed look ALGO IS trying to force a low here ...BUT!
- if u watched the video ..actually the 'amplitude is low' likely because
= Natural LQ + CB Forced and the natural component is negative here ..is infact it looks to me the ALGO is 'trying' to force is up FOR CERTAIN ..but lack of natural LQ ( other ALGO selling, lack of shorts to cover) gives us that lower amplitude -
Hey, I do wear the 'It's the LQ!' t-shirt alot - but ..there are other factors. ..the short pool, and other smaller cause-effects ...
THIS is probably the NEXT more important - and u see here, we've flipped back into sell immediately ..THAT is a problem...this is proxy for short term shorting/risk ..
- the only times I see these ST MODel 'fail' is those Massive Double SPIKE LQ's - which are VERY rare ..and I've only single a SINGle one NOT as a major low a few times..that does happen and override ..but also very rare
- as sai d..we are all beholden to CB simulator ..on/off periods ..but for now...I lean this sin't one just yet ..and so, probabilities remain high than these drivers will RTM or RTE ...and thus a 'lower price low' is highest odds.
Maybe it will enough to force a Swing LOW here but I doubt it ...LQ has now cycled beyond even RTE ... so unless strong buying comes in soon ..I'd look for LQ to drop .next few days..though I guess anything is possible with these clowns as I went over.
Weekend rambling video on nuisances of LQ - HUGE READ coming Sunday futures and monday AM ..of CB intensions here ...which is critcal to our CYCLE DEGREE position
OK - i've seen enough! I just looked over everything ..from every angle. It comes down to this -as I warned before the Drop began
- CB LQ it up
- NOw LQ is drained and unless LQ comes back, we will 'Reprice' down ..and sentiment won't save market as trained to BTFD
So this all comes down here to LQ - and right now, its EXTREMEL high probability it drops early or during next week and would complete a MAJOR SELL SIGNAL if it does.
So as I see it - Either the CB comes in over weekend or monday and SAVES it NOW - OR
..it will likely be 'too late' ..and literally only case that ever got saved was that 2007 one.
>>I believe we have Just seen the Super Cycle High - or at best it gets retested ...similar to 2007.
OK could be wrong ..but that is clear message of all my data/models/setups.
BTM LINE As I said last month or so I wouldn't be LONG for all tea in China up here...and doubly so now. Sure, gamblers long could contuinue to get lucky on back of CB insanity..but no one truly knows their intensions ..it appears to be electioneering ..but its only a guess ...who knows their real agenda ... if you want ot keep rolling the dice ....that's fine , but last 2-3 month anyone going long is gambling on that and nothing to do with 'investing' or even 'trading' and everyone knows it! ...greater fool theory at work.
- Most will be AMAZED at how quickly the 'feel' will change here ..if we break below 4800.
All those 100% foolproof bullish 'studies' 'signal' 'data' is all based on false assumption that this market is same as past ..it's not ....u think they would learn even from 2008, 2020 ..but nah ...
HMMMMMMM - this continues to look ..how can put it Very RISKY..more charts when I have time. ... unless 'save' come over weekend ...
- On My Model - IF ..and I'll give some margin - if 4900 is Lost on the hourly , or even just intraday ... and certainly daily ... WELL...BUCKLE UP! ...
- I've spent ALOT of time studying PRIce dynamics and history ...this move is RARE and RISK of 'event' already...but that would ....REALLY have my attention ..I've already warned alot.
I see TWO Likely outcomes here:
1. We bounce at 4850 area ....hard and fast ..and long IT drop into May June July.
OR
2. We spike through to 4800 ..and then retest ..then into a fast up move and longer bounce.
BUT - IF we FAIL a Bounce off 48XX ....AND OIR Fail to BOUNCE there - as I mentioned weeks ago ...we have a Historic setup here on Price Dynamics ...also because of the BOX and LQ .... A Trifecta of factors increasing a Waterfall type move .. as I've been saying I see mounting evidence of this setup probability rising. ..one step at time.
It odds on I think - but I also believe CB will like 2007, step in and pump LQ again - clearly, they care more about the Stock market than inflation, or bonds etc ...but, of course, if they didn't we'd see a 2020 type possibility.
BTM LINE - Historically, at least since 1910 that I've studied Price - Move UP like last 5month and now DOWN in manner this is ...are INCREDIBLY RARE ..
I can't say a specific LEVEL normally - but yeah, 4950 is one ( and already alot of damage here on weekly close) ...then 4800 ...would mean for me ...the 'one last 5 up' is not going to happen unless CB step in again ..which they likely would .
To repeat what I said for month before this Decline began - I think very few people under RISK .and just how much RISK the CB have put into these markets ... well, a few more might soon :-)
HEADS UP - Let me keep this one. under my hat ..but!
- I really pay attention to certain dynamic patterns on daily/weekly
- We Just did 'something' here..that is incredibly rare ..I backtested to be sure.
- since 1997 ..the instances are: TOP in 2000 on Comp, Top in 2018, Top in 2020 (yes that one) AND TOP in 2007 ... Er, yeah, pretty amazing list.
- NOW, have these dynamics ever 'failed' - YES! ..TWICE in 2007 ..is the only time since 1997, I don't know or care before than as irrevelant to modern CB Alchemy markets.
OF those in 2007 ..they match the area I marked on other chart ..of LQ pattern. The 1st and 2nd drops. Both I remember had massive CB saves ..as we've discussed. Also of those, the 1st is fundamentally different in every other respect on model - so that's a poor match.
That leaves us that only 1 other time did CB save it ..the drop before the final retest high in 2007 , then it repeated and failed - and THAT is exactly where I've said I see us wave wise anyway. Even in that instance, the market fell further ..if we take that, as said it woulb be to 4800-4850 area but no more..so my comments hold there.
This gives us another measuring stick and confidence on importance of those Pivots And also road maps. It really could come down here to how intent the CB is to save it -logically similar to 2007 ...but, the BOX is tighter and more sever wrt to BONDS and TNX 50 area which many believe, a crossing would trigger financial collapse for 'complex reasons' .i.e. I doubt it personally ..but it likely is more restrictive here than 2007 was tbd.
Btm line - I am looking for downside follow through next week both due to top down analysis nd bottom up ( ST Model and setup) - ...the BIG question is 'what then' which is tbd ...but as I've said, alot of the model is saying MAX RISK ...and my 'theories' agree to risk of LQ Repricing .
For 'fun' - there is a pattern match ..for COMP ..for MASSIVe down day Monday...with a huge intraday reversal back up ...I don't it repeats but worth noting.
ACTUALLY p- the COMP is now LEADING ...we may be seeing a move similar to Spring 2000 when the dot com bubble burst ...to early to be sure but the setup and dynamics ..let alone the mania is very similar - next week will likely add a lot on that for me.
ALso - IF AI is why the market went ballistic & Rate cuts - why is the COMP LAGGING the SPX? ..doesn't make any sense ....the answer is it didn't, it was CB LQ and human mania in 7 stocks or whatever ...
FATAL LAST WORDS - the model is now working great not just on BOX ..but stocks now as expected when LQ finally had to drain ... I say this in all honestly, if not for the CB 'random acts of LQ violence' I would still short term trade and probably be retired and could spend my time trying to help humanity as best I can .... but ..oh well ..is what it is :-) ...but it just takes one or a few of those to blow your account ...there u are, totally n' sync ..its so easy ...then BOOM ..and we humans ..most of us ..find it hard to realize and adjust before we are blown out ...I managed to avoid those fates ..but it just requires WAY too much discipline for me and time/energy I want to spend on other things - which Is why I moved to investing timeframe where these are not really an issue .....but when I see things work so well I do think I should be trading it ! ..honestly, what I 'm thinking down the road is to trade NOT stocks ( just too much of the above) but commodities and or dollar ...
But yeah - enjoying the n' sync feeling ...fleeting as it likely will be LOL as CB launches another assault on LQ sanity out the blue :-)
* Actually of everything ..I think my Models/read works the best on Bonds ..as I get older..I'm more about capital preservation ...so ..'trading' is ambiguous ..but yeah ..I'm really about now - moving into Cash, bonds, or stocks on longer timeframes ...and trying to lower RISK ...but ironically, the short term 'stuff' keeps my EDGE and SYNC...to help those reads ....especially to try to identify CYCLE DEGREE type turning points...at lest I hope :-)
My other thought - I don't have time/desire to CODE up my ST MODEL ...and anyway, there is the 'human' element ..but maybe as AI matures ..I could get simply package to TRAIN and AI ...to do what I can't ..and trade it without human limitations, well THIS human anyway :-) ..would be interesting to do that give it some capital and see what it did.
The ONLY TRADE I am looking for ...I've seen 3 times in 20 years ...a certain set of signals ...I saw just before 2008 collapse, 2020 collapse and 2018 drop ..... I swore to myself If I ever see it again I will take a flyer on way out the money puts for a few K's.
FYI - It looks ..and we saw this ALOT in 2020 ...that when WEAK LQ button presses are made..and most of it was overnight on futures ...that in the cash sessions ..it can actually be counter productive because
- instead of Fear spike ( which we need into 4950 tesT)
- we go a 'hope' spike
If LQ keeps going up...nothing matters and a 'forced up move' begins ..but this does NOT have that trajectory so far ...infact..it looks to be ending today...
So - I think we now actually have a better shot of trading through that key pivot... it's going to be INFORMATIVE regardless! .... LQ is now fully RTE sell ...so ..we shall see.
My best guess...is the natural pattern will as said play out ..and we'll keep grinding down and through.... toward 4850 maybe 4800 tbd with a few more backsweep bounces.
Bonds/usd in correctives ...and very high odds also CRB ..Gold ..and oil but lagging.
NQ's testing overnight 'panic' ( sarcasm) lows ...and various other trained monkey BTFD area's here ...
- What I expect to see..is more of same ..every possible bounce point is BTFD ..humans ..then ALGO''s sell them ...some bigger ..some smaller...some short some long ..but grind down here at least until either Model signals move to ST and then Swing buy OR CB decides to come back in ...grinding down move unlikely to do the t..only 'panics' ..
- I just looked over LQ and other key models very closely, they are definitive ..or 'very high odds' that LQ is going to drain and barring another reasons for CB to intervene over weekend ...that means lower prices
I also see a TON of BUYING ...yet market falling ...that looks like heavy distribution tbd
Heads UP this is Road map I've been using - actually, this and prior drop show the typical 'bifurcation zone/decision') we see most of time ....it wont'. be exact but model components also high match ...so its useful
Bonds & dollar - very high odds consolidating moves here ....with all that implies :-)
*chart - to add to that ONE disclaimer
- UNLESS WWIII expands FAST ..( it seems more plan is SLOW burner)...there would be temporary FLIGHT oto SAFETY ( for now ) in US Treasuries ..( eventually even that trade is going to fail..but not quite there yet..the Doom Mungers of last 25 years will be right 'eventually' .and we are CLOSE ..bUIt I still think the we have more to run before the 'reset' or whatever u call it - i.e. loss of US Hegemony tbd)
EOD TODAY was important - and 1st real confirmation of a large IT type down move here ( even if we swing up ...even if we retest of make marginal new highs..rthough, the model is now leaning quite strongly AGAINST retest/new high before a large down move)
TOMORROW IS HUGE because I see a great setup to test 4950 CYCLE SUPPORT - I'd put the degree of Pivot as high as that for me.
>>- IF we get that test And What happens there is going to allow the Model and me ..to make a call whether
- we Swing back up now ( as I say, I doubt a retest..but could get 75% retrace
OR
- trend down now...and to where.
Right now, from everything it looks higher odds actually that we will FAIL 4950 ..and move in fairly straight down fashion to 4800 area ....which would be another Cycle Pivot.
But - tomorrow will add informaiton and could change the setup and probable outcome ...as always, just trying to be clear , precise, unambiguous and Ahead of the move - as hindsight can't be traded alas.
btm line - I'm looking for test of 4950 tomorrow ...it could be delayed but setup is high odds ...and expect a bounce ..nature of which will be big tell, but I'm expecting a failure ..and 'surprise' move down to 4800 area over next few weeks...it less looks crash here more just grinding reprice ...when I mention a crash ..it would likely be after a failure AT 4800 ...if that comes down the road ...way off right here but just laying it out.
FYI putting everything together ..and its ALOT...and i've shown some of it over last few months.
- THESE are the BEST and VERY CLOSE Matches I see to now ...massive rhymes
- I used 5 year interest rate pattern i've shown ...but ...its only one aspect ..
- of these ..for me...the closest is the first 'shock drop' in 2007 ...then got one more retest of high ( as per earlier 'ideal' setup ..but ..!) ......OR 2nd I actually have to say 2020 drop ...more complex to explain why ...that one doesn't have the Rate setup we is crazy same here if u see it ...but has ALOT of others such as LQ, and other 'stuff'... I certainly couldn\'t rule out a move like that here.
HEADS UP - I rarely say this ..but ..I have to say what I see based on the model/data etc or there' s not much point this
- This is starting to look REALLY FUGLY to me ..I don't have time to go over it now so simply say:
- the internals are giving Big warning
- the Sentiment is big Warning ( unless it change rapidly here..more on that below)
- Price behavior is starting to warn ( watch 4950)
I would say the slower we grind down here with bounces and growing 'Buy the dip' ( I've confirmed with multiple independent signals now ..this is RARE ..and shows entrenched BTFD)
- the more RISK is RISING ...of certainly an IT down move as I've said but
> That we have actually MADE the GENERATIONAL TOP ...which sounds insane even to me ...as it 'feels' to what 'should happen' here is
---> a IT drop ..or long range and drop . ( 4) ...another UP CYCLE maybe later 2024 or even 'somehow' into 2025....to marginal new highs ....THEN that top
But ..^this is the kind of 'is the market going to make it that easy' type issue - I don't think so here from what is shaping up
- IF the CB hadn't created this latest artificial up move and mania ..then I'd say the 'obvious(to me at leasT) 4...5..... would play out ...but THAT Raises alot of RISK ..as they are forced to lower System LQ here
- I say one step at time ...but as I said month ago this is now a MAX RISK to bull side setup and historic downside move is higher than 'normal' risk ...here e we are.
- I actually think this SLOW SLIDE is max danger ...a faster and 'fear spike' move might have me less concerned.
I could be totally wrong - perhaps the CB can step in tomorrow and press 'up' on the LQ ...but...they way things are looking ..infact they NEVER looked right here on this move ..well duh ..its insane as I went over to do what they did ..for reasons we still don't know I believe...
..IF LQ does what it seems likely to do AND retail do what they have been 'trained' to do by it ... well this would actually make sense ...
- which is NOT to say we 'crash' ..but boy, If EVER ..just sayin' certainly RISK is undefinable here.
Bonds - looks very corrective as expected ...so ..eitehr a longer 'hold up move' or we goto new higher yields very soon ...
Dollar - same
CRB-oil seeing the longer .down move .but looks corrective..probably also another attempt here on oil to hold it down piggy backing on natural drop as per chart/count...but eventually...I see another leg up ..timing tbd
Stocks - I went over a fair bit yesterday...looking for a failure of the bounce that started ..we go open drop and another bounce ..which fully cycled the ST model to sell ...now sell off
- it could be a '4' type move ...now 5 ...or variations tbd
- but I still expect we get into close most of or rest of gap below before chance of swing up.
As I alluded to - its absolutely CRITICAL on my Model - what we do here ..another low ..and especially daily low ..and model probability dramatically shifts toward a IT type down move ..which likely will NOT hold the gap below as Swing low ...but go on to lower lows and major technical damage ( I am yet to discuss).
So a I said ..today is most important session in 5 months ..
WEEKLY TRENDICATOR as said on UP - so, at worst I now see only shallow multi day pullback or down weeks into the summer .... probably need to test the old TNX /TLT highs even for that.
- The 5 month CB upward reprice .is over.. the BOX trapped them and we went step by step call that, and proving the 'logic is sound' ..thus is very low odds the CB could re-juice until the BOX allows it again i.e. by prolonger dropping LQ
- The drop on internals, and now price has already gone too far to be '4' of some 5 up the last 5 month ..Infact, its lack any structure at all become is generated by a computer ALGO not humans ..only human on the last few weeks as LQ. begin to drain.
- Thus - logically, whatever this is ...and CB actions have made using a 'natural count' since 2023 worthless ...its has ..or WILL have if above is correct .. TERMINAL CHARACTERISTICS on the Cycle degree .....which Is what I needed to see as I laid out month ago ...IF instead, we had continued up parabolically and Box NOT contained the CB infinite LQ ....who knows! ..but that did not happen as I predicted it wouldn't.
The nuisances we can now try to go one step at Time ...but ^this is Huge and as I said
- Multiple out come into summer as 'possible' the most likely is either
- long drawn out sideways and IT drop Or
- A crash ..one of very rare times as I said its possible ..though also, CB will save it 95%
ST MOdel - very highs odds more selling here .. 4980 gap close is very high odds min ..
- the real damage would occur if a bounce there fails over...and we drop under 4950 as indicated on the charts I posted ..its looking increasingly likely to occur on the model ..but one step at time.
Disclaimer - the ST model is ALOT more than One signal, or even just signals BUT
- This is one visually simple ( If I could and feel need to find a oe to create one signal aggregate ..but its alot of work ..not this year..I'm taking a 'year out' for myself LOL ..but ..down the road ..this would be the one thing I should do )
- u will 'see' the idea ..and why, a Low here is very low odds ...the rest of model 'agrees'.
- so unless the CB press a button ...and unfortunately, they do it 'randomly' on occasion LOL ... and that's all it takes to Destry your trading account is the problem ...then ..well trading odds favor down as I've gone over with all that implies.
- what this signal is show, and there is some 'math' and some 'judgement' to me is ..that human and human trained alto's are 'fully trained BTFD' ..whilst other ALgo's are selling ..and until the humans quit it ...we won't swing low.
- NOW - as LQ is removed ..humans keep buying ( as signals show)
-> but prices FALL NOT just due to ALGO selling but due to a complicated idea I call Re- Pricing
- in simple terms, the LACK buying by CB ..prices want to find 'natural equilibrium on all timeframes' ...
I can see it in that - LQ DROP versus PRICE DROP ....prices are now falling MORE than LQ drop ...even with humans in BTFD ...
- the best lows come when LQ drops a ton, and price doesn't .(Price has found RTE equilibrium) ..Or .LQ goes up until Price turns up ( forced low) - NEITHER APPLY here YET.
- price is showing nice waves and signals working perfectly
We did some sort 'abc' from yessterday into AM high ..now 5 minor drop...now another bounce ...its hard to say the context/count ...doesn't look right as '4' though its a flat which is typical ..tbd ....
- I just now watch each move/bounce area ..see what we get etc ...
- lets see what this one doe s- I feel this is more getting into humans BTFD versus ALGO selling which is what I said before this ..but we can confirm ...
- util ST MOdel LQ/VIX at least move to buy - ALGO as more likely to sell the humans BTFD ...
- there sometimes 'surprises' ..but this is very orderly so far!
Yep that iv ..v ..or ( or alt) is those big break away gap - Now, we will see....whether we get fast reversal back up ..OR this now morphs into a technically damaging move.
Commodities as discussed into a longer pullback here.
* tentative count - on DBC ..but apply to oil, CRB etc - signal suggest more time needed for bottom
Bond in the corrective bounce I marked yesterday ...I don't see anything there to change that view...so that looks like conclusive break of pivots...and trend is now to higher yields ..
* TLT here on signal..turning up...but wave pattern and higher degree signals are 'trending'...so I'd look for confirmation by lower low on TLT on this signal ...before more bounce...I cd wrong and we get longer bounce here first.
There is no easy way to show the LQ model ..this is simple signal shows LQ Cycles and whether they go to mean or extreme reversion -
- what we are more interested in is ..how does Price react ..
- we see just before big drop cycle fails to cycle then
- today its cycling but price made new low .
^this is notable and shows effect of Low LQ when Price is WAY above equilibrium near term price ( price 'naturally' without the recent LQ ALGO buying - I'm not talking longer term, there are degrees here also, so, the last 5 days of LQ support with LAG)
For a buy - u generally want to see the opposite, price holding or moving up as LQ cycles down to RTM or RTE ....
- nothing is holy grail...but also VIX shows similar ...so puts higher as said that bounce will fail ...until we cycle down again.
FYI here it is on longer timeframe ..I tried various configurations and this one u can use same principles ... I did others and was very revealing! It shows very clear When the CB are FORCING the move with LQ ..up or down ..3 times since 2007 UP ( 2009, 2 down ...I'll show another time.
- Sorry to say the Data/Stati's don't lie ! - just look at this recent peak!!!
- I say 'high odds' because I cannot be 100% certain ..more 95% certain as 'system LQ' is not always in CB 'hands' or 'forced' but I've experience all those markets and this confirms my experience ..
- certain of 2007, 2009/10, 2019 (that was SICK by CB) ..and this one. ..it maybe 2020 was natural drop in system Lq
- note. whilst many LQ moves are close to 'extreme' ( marked by lines) - they are 'choppy' and not the 'strong unnatural LQ moves' like now ...also its 'log scale' so big difference to 'almost' hence so few reach those line s..and lo behind they match as said incredibly rare times we all suspected CB interventions ( those of us could see it on tape ).
FYI - First HINT from LQ = it's Not Playing ball ...interesting ...!!
Too early to be sure and I want to see last hours but the pattern indicates this.
IF So - I predict ALGO's are more likely in SELL mode than Buy mode ...and retail as 'all in' ...so who will buy? ...this is the issue ..options traders also quadrupled down on this drop ...
As said - this is Huge tell area for me here.
ALSO - the ST MODEL is back. up and running now LQ is falling ..and as usual is thing of beauty when CB ALGo isn't taking us vertical :-)
- It shows us 2/3 cycled back from RTE buy to RTM or RTE SELL
- in other words ...if we don't bounce hard into the close ..and or even sell off..its very high odds as 'failure' and we go to lower low ....and close rest of gap below....we'll probably then get another shot ...model doesn't 'predict' but its great at identifying the highest prob' whether bounces will fail, and drops will bounce zones.
- In particular the Volatility & Credit along with LQ are WARNING here 'something isn't right' on the bounce if it were C and done and now Swing up ...but one step time ..its just nice after 5 month of CB ALGO vertical simulation to have something else to talk about LOL
- that Spike up and reverse ..along with the ST model ..
- I see higher odds we Fail on this current bounce and make a lower low into that gap below ..on SPX toward 4080-5000 area ..*before chance to have a upside reversal.
Each STEP is VERY Important to me here ..its one of those situations where we are more 'bottom up' then 'top down' in the larger Cycles ...
My best guess - we are in '4' of 5 down ..NOT 'C' ...OR subway of 3 or C down tbd.
While were counting - Oil/CRB etc could ve subway iv ..now v of C down ..(see chart above) ..in which case minor new low then bounce.
I had some time today to look over the entire Model ( its alot - to include weekly/monthly longer term)
I see some things - I don't have time today and need charts but btm line
- we are Now in a Really INFORMATIVE PERIOD for the Cyclical/Secular or 'primary wave' setup for me.
- I am now starting to see some things I wanted to see ..but I need more 'proof' which will likely take months due to timescales were dealing with ..or 'could' take ...I shd say
- the EURO INDEXES are showing me more 'real patterns' because they don't have as much CB artificial effect .
It amounts to THIS - I believe we are in Wave 4 ..of 3 ...of final 5th ...to be confirmed
- CRITICAL thoughts on this:
- we don't always get '4' '5' on TERMINALS ...we 'could' be don't have to ..in modern markets that is often the Kicker ..its '3 wave legs'.
So its going to be almost impossible to 'call the top' in that sense in foresight -
- I am more just looking for confirmation of the TERMINAL 5th Cyclical of Primary
- it looks like 2023 was it ..but CB decided to go to new level of insanity and we go this 1.2.3 of 5th ...could be 4 starting ..or could still need some terminal subways of 3 ..that's what I want to see.
TIMEWIS e- it tells me there is a small chance ...that..if ALL the waves plated out ..that 'somehow' we get 4 ...5 into 2025 .... I don't think there would be much higher highs..just marginal..tbd ...thart is what I'm not looking to see ...the Envelope/pattern here.... that's the 'best case' for bulls I see.
- Worst case is we CRATER NOW ... we are now at the ealierst point of that window ..if 3's all truncated ...unlikely without an external event as I've discussed..but setup is 'possible'.
I think it get WAY more interesting from here on out ..that's the bottom line ...and each new information helps me refine this
Btm line - ALOT depends on next few sessions in term of near term ..but model is looking good via LQ tracking ..its been dead on there e...and its finally drained ... so we have shot as now ending this '3' ( higher odds its done ..but might retest highs ) ....and then into spring/summer we get a IT drop '4' ..that could morph into fractal repeat somewhat of 2022 ...(tbd) ....THEN 'we'll see'
- as I said month + ago RISK on long side going to stratosphere..and even more so now ..
- Surprises are far more likely now to downside ...though...it could go into a long slow drag here tbd
^this is going to be fascinating I think and I'm sure I'll learn something important for future, learned alot here last few years for investing timeframe model.
APRIL 28
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NEW THREAD here
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/real-time-commentary/comments
WEEKEND Analysis
I don't have too much time at weekends at moment ..but some charts I'll post here I think are signicant..if I get time i'll add comment but maybe in week when I have more time.
This one for sure if showing a problem for this bounce without CB LQ injection.
* climatic volume ...what i'm looking at here is TWO things
1. The lack of structure - its a straight line showing a 'one direction of volume' i.e. buying ..that's fine if price confirms a major low ..but now during a choppy price move like this with big drop day ( likely shows distribution)
2. The Magnitude of move ..looks RTE ( maxed out)
- now both are moot like everything is CB LQ injects but I think its less likely here ..we cna look at that
- as i say it favors a 'down volume reaction' next week
- As i've been saying ...very similar here to End of Aug 23' move
- Even during the explosive V reverse earlt Nov '23 ...it led to a pause/pullack AND
- i've said MOn AM is key in the current Setup ..
- I could show alot of correlated similar ..so btm line is
- Sunday Night ALG O ( a favourite for painting the tape) ..if fails to lauch another gap up painter move ...then I strongly favor we top out again and drop ...and like an 'abc' or 'abcde' ( I mean this) coming
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU1MDUxM18yMzE2MDc5NQ
Price setup ST
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU1MDUzMV8yMzE2MDgxNA
*Any drop under 5090 area confirms a-b-c ..possible 'd' e' ...
Dollar has 'flat' - box green similar setups ... would support Stock index drop.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU1MDUzM18yMzE2MDgzMQ
What about LQ - here's a different view ..I've got ALOT of them ! LOL
There's alot going on here ..NO single view works well on LQ ..why i have alot but note
1. Momo tends to 'double spike' ..especially when gone extreme high or low ...favors a 2ndary drop here
2. Current momo spike ...has neg' div ...though if it can spike monday it could cancel that...but ST signals don't favor it ( I may post something on that later).
* also I configured it to either CROSS or REJECT at the 0 line ..and the current move is more likely to Reject which wold need to have LQ dropping from around here.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU1MDUyOF8yMzE2MDgxMQ
* here is NEXT Degree down ...showing high probability drop in LQ next 2-3 sessions
- after strong spike up in LQ ..see green
- then flattening and down slope begining
- - in strong uptrends ..price just 'chops/corrects/bases'
- otherwise drops back ...so its a 'tell' here next few sessions
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU1MDUyOV8yMzE2MDgxMg
RTM/RTE model - has sell
- Went to Extreme high
- move down to mid band
- often doubles back up ( but well short of extrme ) but stays in sell mode
- the one and rare exceptionis those CB LQ button presses show in blue - doubles back to Extreme! and enough ot FORCE price back up
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU1MDU4NV8yMzE2MDkwMQ
April 26 - ShimmyVille
Bonds - Shimmy down In yields..looks corrective ..high odds a 'backtest' of that break out channel
Commodities - Shimmy sideways ..looks confirmed Corrective on higher degree now ...looks like we're BASINg for a BIG MOVe ...down or up? ...still more likely up ...infact CRB has a setup for massive blow off up move I'll post when I get time.
DOLLAR - I said today would be key ...and looks for up ..and Yep, Clear big impulse up here...so its '4' also looks done ... usually leads the box cycle but they have all unsynched a bit here with the shimmy's ..I expect a re-synch on next couple weeks.
Stocks - Gap up ..holding ..oh wait should it be closed by now :-) .the irony of CB's Computer Run Global system is - up moves are more panicked and sustained than down moves for years due to Asymmetry of the ALGO ...
..here's the current setups as I see it ..with colored boxes added.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTA2NV8yMzE1ODkxNA
CLOSE - there is a fractal repeat setup here ..for drop ..ALOT depends on the OPEN on Monday ..if its up or down ..two setups I see
- Strong fast up open ( as per 2 setups I posted ) OR
- we drop and then likely will lead to closing todays gap up ..after some shimmy maybe..
^which of these depends mostly on open from what I see..failure to surge up favors the down.
Dollar and imbalance wd favor down - just need to see what that Sunday night ALGO does though.
HEADS Up -
On a RELATIVE Basis i.e. wrt to price ... we are seeing WAY more Retail BTFD Here ..than we did on previous Swings down ..and then Swings back up i.e. never sold, and then double down on BTFD
The way the Imbalance is calculated means I don't get accurate data until EOD ....even for intraday data.... but just eye balling it ..it looks...fairly 'eye popping' right here ..but once I get the hard data later ..maybe post a chart of two to show what I mean.
This has little Short term value - but starts to apply to Swing ..but definitely DOES matter beyond that.
I lean - don't hold me to it... THAT we are beginning a kind of 'fractal repeat' of the periods IT drop I posted the two setups for ...just this one has WAY more Retail Buying and zero selling unlike that one ....
So right now - from mile away..it looks to me we're going into a long process here of drawing in every last Retail $ similar to as bored saying 2007, somewhat 2000. if u look at SPX ...but I reserve right to change my view due to unparalleled CB insanity last 5months ...and the level of RISK its put into markets ...just overviewig what I see so far on this.
HEADS UP - ONE for for luck ..I just noticed this trying to find something to represent my 'gut'
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTQxNV8yMzE1OTI5Ng
TLT - here's what I see highest odds near term
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTMyMV8yMzE1OTE4Ng
* I just noticed this ..TNX Swing signal close to Cross down mid-line This is IMPORTANT next read!
- Cross mid -line VERY high odds = DROP ..espcially if neg' div' (as now) But
- In strong up trend it doesn't drop or 'bases' .. so this is going to be important next few sessions ...
- my 'tape/gut' at moment is telling me CRB - Bonds -Dollar are building to BOX move - but especially Bonds ...feels like a slow burner basing period ...I cd be wrong ..but longer we keep holding technicals levels and signals align ... the more I believe in next few weeks ( maybe it takes longer) we get a strong move up in yields. which honestly very few believe will happen (even I doubt it..which is good sign majority do) ..( maybe with or without CRB taking off ..I'm still looking at that..but I lean to blow off in CRB - I have no 'news' reasons why purely looking at technicals ...news tends to follow as we've seen over and over..as 'someone' always seems to know ahead of times don't they>?! :-) )
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTM1OF8yMzE1OTIyMw
What MORE charts Mark! ..believe me, it's nothing to what I actually look at LOL
- I noticed that this signal is a good approximation to show combined FORCED LQ + BTFD flows( like the imbalance)
- It shows we into 'extreme' territory now ...sometimes its goes ALOT more extreme bt those tend to be during those mega LQ pulses I've shown ...we don't have that here
btm line - the risk of selling is picking up this afternoon ...especially if BTFD's are 'all in' ..as this suggests is close ...tbd .. LQ also cycled back up high and appears NOT to be a strong pulse ..
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTM3OV8yMzE1OTI1OQ
ANd for USD
Charts Galore :-) - just 'cos its TGIF and important area as I said..
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTM0M18yMzE1OTIwOA
Swing Context
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTM0Nl8yMzE1OTIxMQ
ST Signal off ETF
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTM1MF8yMzE1OTIxNQ
IT Trend Comment
- So I have been looking at price and model data for this move to answer is this just a swing down, or IT longer down move
- I am forming the view based off what data we're getting ..that this is VERY similar to the chart setups I posted this AM. (and before actually a few days ago)
-Technicals have weekend way more than a 'healthy pullback'
- Sentiment hasn't blinked ..even less so than during that other pullback
- the IMBALANCE has really caught my eye, we are seeing many spikes calculating now.
I do think this is very similar to those marked -
- I think we're in a process of drawing in remains BTFD'er and once it's down , we get a 2ndary drop. ...or possibly longer time wise depending.
- as to 'from where' it depends on how many more BTFD'er ..and any more LQ .. somewhere form here right now to just above the recent ATH 's ! ....but the posted boxes shows the 'highest odds' from here ...as I get more data it likely is possible to narrow it down.
I couldn't really say on Cycle degree yet - It looks like Major TOP to me ..but ..as I said, its quite possible if CB stepped in ( they did) ..we'd got into a longer series of new highs tests and drops ...tbd
This isn't the best view - but other data is lagged ...but shows another huge buying frenzy on the Q's.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0OTI3N18yMzE1OTE0Mg
AND Today might help on this -
- as in a C wave up ..probably 3 or 5 of c now ..so seeing how strong this is rest of today, and where any selling finally comes in, if any ....or Monday.
WOW - * corrected - TWO failed Sell signs on the Short Term Vix model
- I maybe have seen 80%-90% win/loss on it
- I don't recall EVER seeing TWO successive failed signals ...
This is result of the LQ ..and the manic BTFD is my best guess.
April 25 - Tangled Web here
This ALL looks corrective now ... we're likely in a complex mess for a bit BUT
- this does increase odds we get a 2nd Swing down leg ...WHEN is hard part
We've got TWO positive Short term for stocks
- Currency support and hence LQ and
- another Wave of BTFD just like yesterday right here
I can't see us getting another down swing until both those reverse.
BONDS - got that next higher high yields ..from here..depends alot on CLOSE today..if we hold these gains ..then I look for another sustained up leg in yields ...if we reverse..could be more back & filling first.
Commodities - basing ..no more yet...but I still look more up than down.
USD_ ready to move up but looks strongly like some of that 'creative LQ creation' today in attempt to hold stocks up here ...as usual
BTM line right here - tomorrow is shaping up to be the informationally pivotal day here ..on DOLLAR fWIW
Meh - Stocks could literally do anything tomorrow here ..let market tell us here...
Ha ha - looks like gap up ...more games ..will that instantly close like all gaps down do? ..doubtful ..but we shall see.
* looks like a-b-now c up ...then what ..dunno' ..that why I need to see tomorrow.
HEADS UP - Outside all the NOISE
..we have BONDS ...
I must say on personal note, that the last 3-4 years have forced me to focus on bonds then commdities/dollar in the box concept ... and result, I feel I have something more 'real' to look at even when the CB 'does the crazy' with stocks ... I wish I had focussed on this more earlier but everything is an evolutionary process ( if u choose to ..or is it really a 'choice' ..ah ..off he goes again ! :- ) ) - I didn't because frankly it less relevant to short term trading ..and wasn't until I moved to more investor timeframe I realized the importance.
Anyway ..I believe the REAL focus here should be TNX ... its largely trades technically correct (TLT maybe even more so ) ....and gives us our foundation ...
Today - NOTE the move up ABOVE the initial CHANNEL ..after a consolidation I marked ...
- IF as said we hold this into the close, odds increase we move up to gap close and even tag next channel above next week or so.
- This would 'make sense' ..given reality ...which is slowly filtering into the 'fake reality Matrix' ( today PPI) ... but we do also have to deal with 'traders' and 'noise' and some system ALGO's.
- so 48 to 49 is the next target zone .assuming we don't fail today.
- Odds favor we do NOT fail ..despite noise...as we completed that clear ABC..then have 1.2.3 now today up ...and corrective intraday today ....but ..it's a critical zone with 'news' today that can lead to wacky short term moves to throw traders off the scent.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0NTA0MV8yMzE1NDIwNA
ALSO This Model -
- shows all IT highs /low occurred on touches of pink and or pink then retest
- this high odds means we have much longer/further to go up on TNX ( yields)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0NTExOV8yMzE1NDI4Mg
FWIW Here is same model applied to USD ...I took it back 17 years
- Every single major Top in dollar TAGGED that Upper Pink zone ..some had retests at lower band
- We currently lack a Tag of Pink ..so it strongly favors USD is in longer term uptrend here ...though ..its same nothing about how convoluted the path could be ...we could certainly RTM down here ...but I don't see much on near term model to support that without a Tag higher first.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0NTEzM18yMzE1NDI5Ng
THERE are ALOT of ANOMALIES showing up ..long conversation.. Often this is bullish ...'cos is likely means there is system issues building and the Central Planners via their Computer simulator are One trick ponies with the SHORT term solution - moar LQ!
But ^this is a little different ..
- I would favor more of a RANGE type environment here for while ..rather than an TRENDING move up ..or down for that matter ..
- UNTIL the ripples from the CB last LQ Tsunami few days ago calm down which I believe causes these anomalies ... (Moslty RTE's not RTE'ing ..so to speak)
I cd be wrong ...but yeah...a. lean to a confusing ..choppy period here as so many cross currents and 'price magnet's in different directions at different degree's of trend.
FYI - Today INTRADAY MOVES are Impossibly IDENTICAL to yesterdays ! LOL ..ALGO's + humans programming at its finest.
Hilariously controlled 'randomness' :-)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0NTEyNV8yMzE1NDI4OA
EXAMPLE - this is on PRICE ..the one on VIX is INSANE ...and I've never seen it ..and there are others LQ ..also I posted. the 3 pulses and wide width ...
But simpler on price -
- Note the crossing down of Mid-band ..but FAILURE to TAG the bottom before
turning back up and cross back above mid -band
- That AFTER a failure of 61.8% retrace zone on all indexes ..
- THAT is CRAZY RARE ...I don't have odds but something like 90% time will TAG the bottom even if just for 1 min ( or less!).
- It DOES happen more often on 'news based gaps' as today...
- Generally when it does in my experience, as said, your in a very fast moving fluid flow ..when moves can ZIG ZAG FAST so to speak without 'proper basing or technical setups'
- I know alot about this one as traded it alot ... and absolutely HATED this kind of setup ..avoid like plague and USUALLY mess the HIGHER ORDER TREND/DEGREE is 'trying to find direction' ..here the swing ..itsn't 'sure' if its up or down i..e Indecision zone ..probably also IT degree infact .. I believe we are going to end up IT Sell and longer time wise sideways or down ..but one step at time...this is where 'bottom up' can help the 'top down' information for me.
- note. the DYNAMIC(moving with price/time) Band at low end is around 5000 rising ..its a Strong MAGNET for price to Tag it ...which would be very whiplash-e ... we shall see ...its even rarer to not get some backtest ...
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0NTA3N18yMzE1NDI0MA
now - Ask me why MAGNETs on Dynamics work? ...WOw ..Rabbit hole alert..One thing I know for sure is they do ..it's quite unbelievable actually ...and not easily explained so I'll leave that one for today.... the shortest but inadequate answer is ..because of combination of human programming, and ALGO programming..long version should get me a Nobel prize LOL ..another day.
There is one RHYME to that 1st box setup I posted yesterday..where it retested the lower band then went straight up in a 'c' type wave ...to MID- BAND ... its 'looks' similar here but many difference on model ..lets see today/tomorrow ..on that.
FYI - TIME for new THREAD SOON this one is getting troublesome ..when I get around to it .just a heads up.
We are 'all' currency traders now LOL ..can see blatant example today /and most of time
- The Computer 'game/simulation - 'World Economy' ..Systemic Loop all starts there :-)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0NDkyN18yMzE1NDA5MA
So - we know there are many BTFD's from yesterday and today ..the real question now is -
- Are there any SELLERS?
Yesterdays drop was on LQ - so that's not 'real sellers' AND
Todays drop was Overnight futures/Algo's
We saw a bit of selling yesterday after than BTFD frenzy ..I'm interested to see if we get any today .
* also gaps down on news almost 100% get closed immediately in the computer run market ..up gaps rarely do ..its the way of things .so we'll see - REAL moves as I say RARELY happen on 'day of'.
EOD April 24 -
Today didn't tell me much -
- LQ finally ran out of time and dropped ...as I said, was at max time limit ( whatever that is ? has to be that some account somewhere has to be net zero over that time period - only way makes sense...so, 1 gazzillion $ appears ..is used ...then put back - 0 balance over that time period).
- THAT was the drop first 2 hours
- Then BTFD came in once the LQ Systemic drop ran out of MOMO ...
- This was more humans than ALGO to upside ..and the '1 min dynamic' shows FRENZY of BTFD ..not even touching 1 min 'dynamic band' for 45 mins LOL .... as said shows current human trader sentiment ....not that they matter that much most of the time.
- Then we got some selling ...which looks like due to 'systemic cross correlation' I went over ..this DOES show that system is VERY SENSTIVE to $ moves right here ....so that is something I'll watch tomorrow ...dollar is close for me to move up strong ...as is Bond yields ..'cos they are basically 1:1 correlated
TOMORROW I think will be more informative - on everything ...I can't make a call on SPX here yet ..but starting to see a setup ...but I need to see tomorrow at least.
LATE comment - Just looked over alot ...
- market is in a really Fluid position here ..new data will effect outcomes disproportionately ..so short term over longer term bottom up here.
- the market bounce lacks a foundation and is VERY Vulnerable to a 2ndary swing down
- but ..alot depends on next couple of sessions ..any weakness increases those odds
- LQ CAN override ALL .but having had 1 mega up pulse ...it would be another shocking move by CB to do it
I note a drop on ES/NQ - this is nice next test because
- ES has a 100% foolproof abc up ..that, LQ and the ALGo attempted to morph into some BS. 1.2.3 up last 2 sessions ..tape painting is one of the AI functions.
- this drop would 'screw that' ...AND LQ is again in natural pause /to lower
ERGO If this drop 'miraculously' turns around by or at open - lets check LQ for another big spike up ... that would show the ALGO hasn't given up trying to paint this ...I am not inferring emotion ..it's purely programming - to morph correctives into impulses ..one of its favorite tactics started in 2003 + = as gives it guaranteed shorts to burn to pick a move off.
IF by some miracle the ALGO doesn't come in with the usual save - then this would be significant ...in negative way ..see setups I posted ..but MAY be then a retest tbd
FYI - this is what I'm leaning to as setups...also ..that one I posted on LQ end of 2021 - just for Swing to IT ...will depend alot on where we go from here.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0MDY5N18yMzE0OTI5Mg
FYI - Imbalance signals show a Significant buying imbalance today i.e. confirming the 'tape' I saw...that was very large rush/BTFD move today - MOSt of the time ..this causes a 'down reaction' within a few days ... nothing is 100%. ..sometimes they 'accumulate' and its takes longer - but its definitely NOT bullish here as least that is highest odds.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0MDUxMl8yMzE0OTA4OQ
April 24 - Going through the Motions here ( thank u Kansas)
Bonds/Dollar confirming the correctives this AM ... I had marked this yesterday ..note the down rather than flat signal ..which opens door to more immediate higher yields tbd
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzOTg0MF8yMzE0ODM4NA
Oil/commodities also look to be as said stabilizing for move up tbd
Stocks -
LQ DID finally peak out there where I said yesterday ..and has dropped this AM
Stocks got a little following through overnight into AM now selling off
- So now we see how much BTFD is left ... or if we just collapse again ..and then IF LQ comes back in for the 2nd pulse.
Hey, I know I bang on about LQ and USD etc ...but this is ridiculous .(see chart below) ..this is almost 100% correlation here between sterling and SPX ...which is just..well..silly ..and I've noted before, alot of time. Sterling is more correlated than dollar ...but not ALL the time ..just to make it complex .
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTU0MDI3Nl8yMzE0ODg1Mg
I mean, WTF ... is the CB rotating around different countries accounts and transferring sums ..that's only way I can explain it ..even then..it doesn't ..there is no logical reason for this hyper correlation. ...and BTW its also to Bonds ...which shows its SYSTEMIC and not targeting to a certain asset class like stocks ..
Man, we live in one crazy F'up world don't we?! :-)
Honestly, and I've been analyzing and trying to solve this puzzle for a decade, there is only one explanation I can come up with ..and its sounds crazy ...until u realize just how far off the reservation we are now, and as I've that is this -
- Money 'appears' 'somewhere' - it maybe 'created out of thin air' but MORE likely, its Transferred into an account
- the Somewhere is 'the system' which is GLOBAL ...hence the different countries ..
- is then ROUTED to accounts in countries who trade futures ...sort of like how drug money is routed to try to avoid being traced LOL
- Then an ALGO, or multiple buy futures ...based. on some very sophisticated AI that has evolved over time I've watched .. its not as simple as 'buy ES' ..
--> these are HYPER Correlations between asset classes Currency, Bonds, Stocks down to MILLI SECONDS FFS ! ....
What is Clear from ^this as iv'e shown/said - its 'our markets' are NOT ...they are computer and basically AI run ....with humans elements small ..and varying from maybe 10-20% down to 1-2% depending on. how much $ is flowing through the 'computer simulation' ....
Even I struggle at times to conceive this, but logically this HAS to be true ..and what's more I watched to begin ..and evolve .as said starting around 2003 ...and those % changed over time ..where humans were more 50-80% in 2003 ..down to current figures.
I guess so what?
- I don't understand how so few people see this, it's so obvious ..just match TNX and USD for laugh as well ....
- It shows majority of humans computers filter out information that doesn't fit their existing paradigm
Once you realize what it took to put this in place, and how much control there is, and WHY they need it ... like I said, you realize that 99% of everything you read about market, economies and even 'the world' is totally fake - a Matrix constructed to give plausible but false explanations to prevent the 99% ever seeing it ...
All of this I suppose is OK if this had no real world effect, but it does ...but that is a longer post. The simplest version is Austrian school 'Mal investment' ...but that doesn't even begin to touch ..I go over this another day.
That's a beautiful wave pattern on TNX ...and USD is same .. pity we so rarely see them on stock indexes!
- clear abc ..now 5 minor up ...( interesting that most of the LQ flowed into stocks this time not bonds...not always the case..systemic ...so depends on their natural positions)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzOTkzN18yMzE0ODQ5Ng
Tough to call this zone BUT ..
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzOTg5N18yMzE0ODQ1Ng
- looks impulsive on minor degree down here the AM on SPX ...5 minor
- so bounce possible around here 5040-5050 ...see what that does if fails over then .
- Key PIVOT TODAY is 5040 ..down to potential 5030 Gap test from yesterday
- failure then would lean to failure of move and acceleration ...then see if LQ gets another 'out the blue' up pulse ...
- LQ has a quite large down pulse this AM ..surprising .but there again probably payback..not reading too much into that YET - but over next 10 days need to look at that CUMMULATIVE LQ pulses summation.
Here THEY Come! BTFD swarming in ....so ..now we'll see.
PANIC BUYING on the tape here LOL - that shows me the best 'sentiment indicator' there is!!
This is pretty hilarious! ...CB ALGO works almost every time ... now we'll see where the human BTFD run out of ammo .....
Actually - applying the Reprice Equilibrium - SPX will fall to 5030/40 this AM ..unless LQ reverses higher here...which 'naturally' it will not.
EOD - Dollar ...which seems to be the 'one ring to rule them all'..somehow!
Looks bullish still to me ..in pullback ..certain markets have signature ...I see one for dollar...this
indicates strongly this is just another pullback...which will be key.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTU0M18yMzE0MzQxNA
Busy chart but this fairly clear setup
- I look for test of weekly resistance before chance for more significant swing down ..though, it may not get one ..tbd
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTU1OV8yMzE0MzQ0NQ
April 23- WOW ..3rd and biggest one! now into similar to those mega '2 pulses'
CB are really serious here LOL ...
Well that answer THAT!
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNDUxM18yMzE0MjIxMg
MASSIVE Market distortions here ...as result ...HAS to be a price for this EVENTUALLY ( with a week I would say)
- I've had this signal 10 year ..and I've NEVER seen it do this ...look at far right edge...it was already at EXTREME ..sell ..then 'doubled down' ... that's a FIRST!
- You don't see these distortions in 'healthy natural' moves or even 'health unnatural ones' :-)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTEwN18yMzE0MjkxNg
FYI obviously No point on me commenting on market St here - were going up until CB ALGO stops...I'll. note when that is ...and then we'll see how much LAG before stocks drop back ..if they do ..I would expect they would due to lack of short fuel.
What is more interesting is how commodities, then bonds...then dollar react ..that's usual sequences after a LAG.
HOW Extreme u say?! ... have a laugh ...as said similar to the kick off one Nov 2023
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTA4NV8yMzE0Mjg5Mg
FWIW - this is clear to me what we have so far ...there is no simple way to show the LQ short term ...ALGO buy/sell points ..but close as I can get in real time ...
The Futures show the totally Forced 'override' wave pattern clearer ..but this is very clear to me ... we had abc up ..failed ( natural as LQ eased) then ..huge override to stop that mid-band cross sell signal ..that is a really high odds one .clear 5 down Into close yesterday ! ..these tend to produce very powerful moves for a day ..sort of like 'failed H&s' patterns.
- if the LQ ever takes out the red lines shown ..its high odds this latest greatest CB ALGO injection is over ...then we get the LAG phase as whatever BTFD come in etc.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTAwNV8yMzE0Mjc2OA
FYI - Crossing down through again NOW - so another potential end of it .. we shall see ...or 4th coming?.....let's see if now the 'chasing' buyers come in.
TENTATIVELY - it looks to be ending ...
- but cannot tell until OVERNIGHT and open again ..as u see, 99% time is done with overnight futures up gaps ...and supporting opening LQ.
That's out 'next step' .no point saying more until see that.
I DO see the BOX seems to be as per charts ..close to next step there.
I said if they did a 3rd ( and would need to ) would 'hit the limits' ...ha ha 'what limits' says this CB!!
..we shall see down the road what the cost is ...that's the things, it can take weeks to see what or even month ...so its ALWAYs going to be TEMPTING to PLAY GOD ..when the cost is so far off
>>But this CONFIRMS ..what we saw last 5 month and now ..that this CB for 'whatever reason' (obvious one and probably less so ) will NOT let this market fall at all and will go nuclear on any selling attempt.
The only way we get a real sell off ...is either
- the BOX ( which is on breather allowing this here) OR
- a true external event / or black swan
Oil making the turn back up here? looks very impulse and V reverse ..and had alot of chances to break down but hasn't ....tbd
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNDkxMl8yMzE0MjY3Mw
I Must say - that's a strong reversal on oil to my eye .. it could even be a 1..now 2 'running corrective' and then 3 up ...which would be very strong move...
- looks like abcde corrective on oil..and similar on commodities indexes ...tbd but
it does NOT look impulsive down to me ..despite some very impulsive LEGS down .the C especially we got off that Iran spike up/down reversal ..the LACK of FOLLOW THROUGh is TELLING to me .... I cd be wrong ...but that's my read .
- unlike stocks ...price is the best 'indicator' on Commodities.
Bonds - dollar both look like ABC ..now in C down ....could last into 1-2 more sessions ...but I'm looking for both to turn back up to new highs for moves as said.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTA5NF8yMzE0MjkwMw
YEp - just looked over gazallion views of LQ - we are Now at those Historic limits - also VIX is .... can't wait to see wait insanity comes next! :-)
ACTUALLY - this kind of extreme I just noticed it over last 3 years only seen at either MAJOR KICKOFFS ( as I showed 5 month ago ) OR CLOSE to MAJOr Swing or IT+ declines ..not exact top as Lag. ...I could speculate on the whys'..but that I. just noticed ..makes alot of sense to me.
HEADS UP - I think this is very good picture..
HERE IS the LAST TIME we did this
- LQ dropped down to bottom area on selling THEN
- LQ surged in 'one piece move' (relentless LQ) all way to TOP
^ this is VERY RARE ...
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzNTEyNF8yMzE0Mjk0OA
HEADS UP - this really as said only happens at one of two places
- KICKS off like 5 months ago ( then u get a 2nd one as well) OR
- Close to Systemic Issues
I have to lean to the 2nd here ...though apparently anything is possible with this Powell clown. tbd
FYI I've gone over the typical COST pattern is
- first oil and CRB take off again
- then bonds
- then dollar
The first time it took 4months ..from that double ..but that's the thing, it's not that simple...its. a FRACTAL and nested degrees
-My 'best gues' is ALOT faster here because on the BOX position ...could be as short as days to a week or so ...tbd
The Thing I'd 'love' to find out is why? ..it's fascinating to me ..part detective.
Does this mean there is a certain limit of $ floating around used to manipulate commodities ..and it shift arounds to different markets? LOL ... hard to believe that..
.. I really think it all ties to the DOLLAR ..I just never could figure it out ..why does Dollar DROP on LQ pumps ..then bonds/stocks are 'bought'. ( by ALGo) ..spend 10 years trying to fathom that one ! ...still none the wiser ..other than my OFF shore CB account theory ....but wouldn't they buy $ ....its SO consistent ...seen though...definitely dollar is sold ..
- I think it's due to all the LAGS through the system ...it just too complex to figure out...it just IS what IT is :-)
April 22 - Weak LQ Pump again
Can see it on indicator, ramp ..and buying TNX/TLT - but pretty weak ...similar to last one - interesting!
EOD -
We're at a critical dynamic zone here ..the CB ALGO will know of this 100% ..and do everything possible to prevent a LOWER LOW from here .. if we can get one, despite its efforts like today... then...I have 1st big confirmation of major top here. - if we can't , it maybe the longer drawn out affair ..so this is key short term.
There is clear corrective 4th wave on ES/NQ etc ...and now minor 5 down into close ...the LQ machine is 'at its limit' but apparently at moment prepared to frequently push that
- is there a 'box' for LQ? ..there always is in this system .... that is the CREDIT system short term ..it snot as max limit but rapidly getting there ....its more the DURATION limit which I don't know what's behind that ..... probably some kind of Account limit where the ALGO has to cycle money in/out to be net 0 over that time period - its so regular, and that makes sense ...
-so tomorrow AM is probably hitting those max limits ..if there's going to be a 3rd attempt up here by LQ
- if NOT ..we shd cycle down and see powerful sell off.
TUE will be very informative on where the pin is on this donkey :-)
YEp looked over alot of stuff - market natural pattern is strong down from here...so with LQ machine at 'near max' ..this is another great read of intent ...because as said this is massive on the IT to Cycle degree ( I guess I modeled what the ALGo's do that produce those ..rather than when I say CB ALGO 'is aware'. .)
I believe what is occurring here is the AI/Tech bubble has burst ....and is 'repricing' whilst rest of market is still somwahrt positive ( see banking ) - historically that is also a strong sell signal ( banking out performing tech ).
So its going to be 'fascinating' to see whether the CB ALGO can hold the line ( current lows) with tech in 'fast river down' mode ...to avoid a trigger of these dynamic pivots being crossed .... real grab the popcorn stuff ! :-)
Just quickly on Gold, commodities - oil - bonds ...they all looks to be in longer correctives - 4th type ... ABC's ....of varying length/degree's ...looks like still more to go to put cherry on those ...but they could diverge here tbd ...
Dollar looks like maybe 1 more day of pullback then resume uptrend ...similar pattern.
If Oil follows recent pattern of last few months ...we 'surprise' to the upside from here...will be interesting.
CLOSESt MATCH to recent history - Oct 9th 2023 ...on LQ and price ... worth keeping eye on ...this assumes LQ doesn't continue going up increasingly fast ( its speed more that size ) ..I'll try to follow this through this week show these idea's.
Though - that bounce had better 'foundation' (BB support and other) ...
Its one step at time - because of this 'natural' then 'CB forced up move+ natural' rolling summation ....
- 1st very early signs I see the latest LQ injection is beginning to end ...too early to be sure .then usually LAG even on this timeframe to price ...all of which are nuances or judgement call though I think iv'e got quite good over last 5 years or so at it.
ALSO - way dollar is acting ..I lean this isn't going to morph into a massive LQ injection ...I cd be wrong ...but leans it just a short term 'stabilization' at that 4950 pivot as predicted.
weakening but not ended yet - I have a very clear way to tell me ...
Alot latent selling .. they will need to come in overnight I guess again ...but this is getting extreme on length and size of LQ ... will be interesting :-)
Update to the Chart we are following -
- as per video Sunday ...note the 2nd clear intervention 'momo jump' on this one and now extreme length of the pulse ... 3rd tomorrow AM??? that wd be 'extreme extreme' - close only to those mega pulses.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUzMDAxMF8yMzEzNzE3NA
Barring ^that - this is some sort of 4th wave on move down
- so should 'retest' or make a lower low to next pivot 4900 or
outside chance still of that 4800-4850 'ideal zone' test
- just depends how persistent the CB ALGO is here.
HEADS UP - I took the time to lay that out over the weekend because market observers say there is no proof of CB market interventions - which is alot like how the CDC see's no proof of damage from Drugs/vaccines ..because hey, they don't actually look hard - carefully for it! Surprisingly you don't see, what you don't want to see - part of the human condition of most people anyway :-) ..... because I wanted to know, I moved heaven and earth to find out how it worked ...and once u see it there's no turning back.
I've shown this many times -but I knew this was very high odds and great example to follow.
Once 4-5 years ago I truly realize what was going on, and it takes a while to accept like alot of things - you realize how truly 'sick' and full of b.s. the Matrix is ...as for 'reasons' - the market is simply a tool for PTB to use much like housing is , and 'economy' in general - we left 'free markets' or 'free thinking' :-) decades ago.
Now - surely if I can track and predict when/where this ALGO high odds comes in - it's tradable? ... yeah I used to think that LOL ...but, I hoped to show here how tricky it is.
I think it IS infact tradable if. you either
- have amazing discipline, time, focus ..and drive to do so ...sort of like elite sport OR
- can code an AI or automated program ..which is alot of work for this.
The problem is - IF u assume this will occur - but it doesn't, u get massive outsized moves, we equally could have gapped down 3% ....believe me I've gone through this loop ...so OK 'I'll just trade intraday or futures with stops ( if u can sleep on that) .. yep, but its never simple...like today..
If I wanted to trade this market ( I don't - I would pick anything but this ..commdoties, bonds, dollar ) ...
- its about identifying key pivots
- ASSUME they WILL come in
- trade with hard stops and avoid gap risk
Meh - I am happy to avoid this with longer timeframe as said 2 years ago ....but ..just sayin' ...I mostly track this simply to gain a 'feel' for what 'they' are upto - it's an ALGO .of course... but there must be some directive along lines of 'support or don't support' so somewhere a human IS making a decision. Only a true black swan could break this - never seen one ...but I do increasingly believe there is risk of one down the road here, doesn't feel close yet though.
HEADS UP - even clear FORCE ATTEMP here right now - really extreme! ..what a surprise!! :-)
It's difficult to tell sometimes - it start a 'slow burner' but then went ballistic - its best never to assume anything as I've explained ... these CB interventions are so extreme historically...
but this answers the question I had posed -
- YES - the CB will NOT allow technical break here!! ..not if they can stop it .and probably they can at least short term.
Chart - still going up! but shows fairly well ..note the 'clear flip' on the signal https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyOTY4N18yMzEzNjgwNQ
NEXT STEP -
- where does this latest fun end? ...I probably can tell when ALGO takes finger off..
- then see where price is and other signals and KEY
- what happens then ...is the key
Nothing to do unless the up simulator ends..and impossible recently to predict that, hopefully the video I did shows why.
Bit of CB Tea leaf reading here but
- we saw a predictable Support here
- its not huge ..and more 'time' ( stalling for time to let buyers come in) than 'Forced up move' ...that is because the vertical amplitude is Lowe r. (lower so far anyway!)
I think the issue here is
- lack of short pool
- AlGO selling (other )
TBD - could be longer bounce ..but I don't think that's the Swing low despite the efforts...I cd be wrong ...but I'd look for LQ to cycle down again this week and then we'll see what price does to get idea on that - ALT is CB ramp up the effort more...but doesn't make much sense to do that but as said this is the issue ..its a probability but CB recently are doing historic and insane things ..so..there's that ! :-)
LET ME CORRECT MYSELF - infact I see from detailed look ALGO IS trying to force a low here ...BUT!
- if u watched the video ..actually the 'amplitude is low' likely because
= Natural LQ + CB Forced and the natural component is negative here ..is infact it looks to me the ALGO is 'trying' to force is up FOR CERTAIN ..but lack of natural LQ ( other ALGO selling, lack of shorts to cover) gives us that lower amplitude -
Hey, I do wear the 'It's the LQ!' t-shirt alot - but ..there are other factors. ..the short pool, and other smaller cause-effects ...
THIS is probably the NEXT more important - and u see here, we've flipped back into sell immediately ..THAT is a problem...this is proxy for short term shorting/risk ..
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyOTUxMl8yMzEzNjU4NA
- the only times I see these ST MODel 'fail' is those Massive Double SPIKE LQ's - which are VERY rare ..and I've only single a SINGle one NOT as a major low a few times..that does happen and override ..but also very rare
- as sai d..we are all beholden to CB simulator ..on/off periods ..but for now...I lean this sin't one just yet ..and so, probabilities remain high than these drivers will RTM or RTE ...and thus a 'lower price low' is highest odds.
Maybe it will enough to force a Swing LOW here but I doubt it ...LQ has now cycled beyond even RTE ... so unless strong buying comes in soon ..I'd look for LQ to drop .next few days..though I guess anything is possible with these clowns as I went over.
Weekend rambling video on nuisances of LQ - HUGE READ coming Sunday futures and monday AM ..of CB intensions here ...which is critcal to our CYCLE DEGREE position
https://open.substack.com/pub/markdavidson/p/lq-nuisances-for-cb-intensions-read?r=1ignzj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
NO sign of it YET - we would see the infamous endless ramp overnight .and usually 10/30 YR bonds being bought - but TBD
Shallow RAMP - could be ...is it accelerates over night - need to see that LQ signature in the AM that's the key!
OK - i've seen enough! I just looked over everything ..from every angle. It comes down to this -as I warned before the Drop began
- CB LQ it up
- NOw LQ is drained and unless LQ comes back, we will 'Reprice' down ..and sentiment won't save market as trained to BTFD
So this all comes down here to LQ - and right now, its EXTREMEL high probability it drops early or during next week and would complete a MAJOR SELL SIGNAL if it does.
So as I see it - Either the CB comes in over weekend or monday and SAVES it NOW - OR
..it will likely be 'too late' ..and literally only case that ever got saved was that 2007 one.
>>I believe we have Just seen the Super Cycle High - or at best it gets retested ...similar to 2007.
OK could be wrong ..but that is clear message of all my data/models/setups.
BTM LINE As I said last month or so I wouldn't be LONG for all tea in China up here...and doubly so now. Sure, gamblers long could contuinue to get lucky on back of CB insanity..but no one truly knows their intensions ..it appears to be electioneering ..but its only a guess ...who knows their real agenda ... if you want ot keep rolling the dice ....that's fine , but last 2-3 month anyone going long is gambling on that and nothing to do with 'investing' or even 'trading' and everyone knows it! ...greater fool theory at work.
- Most will be AMAZED at how quickly the 'feel' will change here ..if we break below 4800.
All those 100% foolproof bullish 'studies' 'signal' 'data' is all based on false assumption that this market is same as past ..it's not ....u think they would learn even from 2008, 2020 ..but nah ...
TGIF 19th April - Minor CB LQ support here
It's clear but minor...might slow things down but likely won't change the natural pattern.
HMMMMMMM - this continues to look ..how can put it Very RISKY..more charts when I have time. ... unless 'save' come over weekend ...
- On My Model - IF ..and I'll give some margin - if 4900 is Lost on the hourly , or even just intraday ... and certainly daily ... WELL...BUCKLE UP! ...
- I've spent ALOT of time studying PRIce dynamics and history ...this move is RARE and RISK of 'event' already...but that would ....REALLY have my attention ..I've already warned alot.
I see TWO Likely outcomes here:
1. We bounce at 4850 area ....hard and fast ..and long IT drop into May June July.
OR
2. We spike through to 4800 ..and then retest ..then into a fast up move and longer bounce.
BUT - IF we FAIL a Bounce off 48XX ....AND OIR Fail to BOUNCE there - as I mentioned weeks ago ...we have a Historic setup here on Price Dynamics ...also because of the BOX and LQ .... A Trifecta of factors increasing a Waterfall type move .. as I've been saying I see mounting evidence of this setup probability rising. ..one step at time.
It odds on I think - but I also believe CB will like 2007, step in and pump LQ again - clearly, they care more about the Stock market than inflation, or bonds etc ...but, of course, if they didn't we'd see a 2020 type possibility.
BTM LINE - Historically, at least since 1910 that I've studied Price - Move UP like last 5month and now DOWN in manner this is ...are INCREDIBLY RARE ..
I can't say a specific LEVEL normally - but yeah, 4950 is one ( and already alot of damage here on weekly close) ...then 4800 ...would mean for me ...the 'one last 5 up' is not going to happen unless CB step in again ..which they likely would .
To repeat what I said for month before this Decline began - I think very few people under RISK .and just how much RISK the CB have put into these markets ... well, a few more might soon :-)
HEADS UP - Let me keep this one. under my hat ..but!
- I really pay attention to certain dynamic patterns on daily/weekly
- We Just did 'something' here..that is incredibly rare ..I backtested to be sure.
- since 1997 ..the instances are: TOP in 2000 on Comp, Top in 2018, Top in 2020 (yes that one) AND TOP in 2007 ... Er, yeah, pretty amazing list.
- NOW, have these dynamics ever 'failed' - YES! ..TWICE in 2007 ..is the only time since 1997, I don't know or care before than as irrevelant to modern CB Alchemy markets.
OF those in 2007 ..they match the area I marked on other chart ..of LQ pattern. The 1st and 2nd drops. Both I remember had massive CB saves ..as we've discussed. Also of those, the 1st is fundamentally different in every other respect on model - so that's a poor match.
That leaves us that only 1 other time did CB save it ..the drop before the final retest high in 2007 , then it repeated and failed - and THAT is exactly where I've said I see us wave wise anyway. Even in that instance, the market fell further ..if we take that, as said it woulb be to 4800-4850 area but no more..so my comments hold there.
This gives us another measuring stick and confidence on importance of those Pivots And also road maps. It really could come down here to how intent the CB is to save it -logically similar to 2007 ...but, the BOX is tighter and more sever wrt to BONDS and TNX 50 area which many believe, a crossing would trigger financial collapse for 'complex reasons' .i.e. I doubt it personally ..but it likely is more restrictive here than 2007 was tbd.
Btm line - I am looking for downside follow through next week both due to top down analysis nd bottom up ( ST Model and setup) - ...the BIG question is 'what then' which is tbd ...but as I've said, alot of the model is saying MAX RISK ...and my 'theories' agree to risk of LQ Repricing .
OH! and TRINQ is giving Crazy rare signal and its very bearish ...just going through data looking for important signals.
For 'fun' - there is a pattern match ..for COMP ..for MASSIVe down day Monday...with a huge intraday reversal back up ...I don't it repeats but worth noting.
ACTUALLY p- the COMP is now LEADING ...we may be seeing a move similar to Spring 2000 when the dot com bubble burst ...to early to be sure but the setup and dynamics ..let alone the mania is very similar - next week will likely add a lot on that for me.
ALso - IF AI is why the market went ballistic & Rate cuts - why is the COMP LAGGING the SPX? ..doesn't make any sense ....the answer is it didn't, it was CB LQ and human mania in 7 stocks or whatever ...
FATAL LAST WORDS - the model is now working great not just on BOX ..but stocks now as expected when LQ finally had to drain ... I say this in all honestly, if not for the CB 'random acts of LQ violence' I would still short term trade and probably be retired and could spend my time trying to help humanity as best I can .... but ..oh well ..is what it is :-) ...but it just takes one or a few of those to blow your account ...there u are, totally n' sync ..its so easy ...then BOOM ..and we humans ..most of us ..find it hard to realize and adjust before we are blown out ...I managed to avoid those fates ..but it just requires WAY too much discipline for me and time/energy I want to spend on other things - which Is why I moved to investing timeframe where these are not really an issue .....but when I see things work so well I do think I should be trading it ! ..honestly, what I 'm thinking down the road is to trade NOT stocks ( just too much of the above) but commodities and or dollar ...
But yeah - enjoying the n' sync feeling ...fleeting as it likely will be LOL as CB launches another assault on LQ sanity out the blue :-)
* Actually of everything ..I think my Models/read works the best on Bonds ..as I get older..I'm more about capital preservation ...so ..'trading' is ambiguous ..but yeah ..I'm really about now - moving into Cash, bonds, or stocks on longer timeframes ...and trying to lower RISK ...but ironically, the short term 'stuff' keeps my EDGE and SYNC...to help those reads ....especially to try to identify CYCLE DEGREE type turning points...at lest I hope :-)
My other thought - I don't have time/desire to CODE up my ST MODEL ...and anyway, there is the 'human' element ..but maybe as AI matures ..I could get simply package to TRAIN and AI ...to do what I can't ..and trade it without human limitations, well THIS human anyway :-) ..would be interesting to do that give it some capital and see what it did.
The ONLY TRADE I am looking for ...I've seen 3 times in 20 years ...a certain set of signals ...I saw just before 2008 collapse, 2020 collapse and 2018 drop ..... I swore to myself If I ever see it again I will take a flyer on way out the money puts for a few K's.
FYI - It looks ..and we saw this ALOT in 2020 ...that when WEAK LQ button presses are made..and most of it was overnight on futures ...that in the cash sessions ..it can actually be counter productive because
- instead of Fear spike ( which we need into 4950 tesT)
- we go a 'hope' spike
If LQ keeps going up...nothing matters and a 'forced up move' begins ..but this does NOT have that trajectory so far ...infact..it looks to be ending today...
So - I think we now actually have a better shot of trading through that key pivot... it's going to be INFORMATIVE regardless! .... LQ is now fully RTE sell ...so ..we shall see.
My best guess...is the natural pattern will as said play out ..and we'll keep grinding down and through.... toward 4850 maybe 4800 tbd with a few more backsweep bounces.
Bonds/usd in correctives ...and very high odds also CRB ..Gold ..and oil but lagging.
Near Term charts
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyMzE2MV8yMzEyODM4NQ
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyMzE3NV8yMzEyODM5OQ
NQ's testing overnight 'panic' ( sarcasm) lows ...and various other trained monkey BTFD area's here ...
- What I expect to see..is more of same ..every possible bounce point is BTFD ..humans ..then ALGO''s sell them ...some bigger ..some smaller...some short some long ..but grind down here at least until either Model signals move to ST and then Swing buy OR CB decides to come back in ...grinding down move unlikely to do the t..only 'panics' ..
HERE COMES the KEY PIVOT TEST .. 4950 area ...another BTFD is high odds...as is another failure based on my system.
This Perfectly illustrates ^this tape read ..
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyMzM3MV8yMzEyODY0MQ
Nice spike up there - BUT
- I just looked over LQ and other key models very closely, they are definitive ..or 'very high odds' that LQ is going to drain and barring another reasons for CB to intervene over weekend ...that means lower prices
I also see a TON of BUYING ...yet market falling ...that looks like heavy distribution tbd
Heads UP this is Road map I've been using - actually, this and prior drop show the typical 'bifurcation zone/decision') we see most of time ....it wont'. be exact but model components also high match ...so its useful
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyMzMxNV8yMzEyODU4NQ
What I think this is also going to show as we've seen over and over
- the REAL MOVE RARELY comes 'on/at' the 'news'..we always seem to get head fakes first now
- Gold ...oil..crb likely good examples here of that.
Bonds & dollar - very high odds consolidating moves here ....with all that implies :-)
*chart - to add to that ONE disclaimer
- UNLESS WWIII expands FAST ..( it seems more plan is SLOW burner)...there would be temporary FLIGHT oto SAFETY ( for now ) in US Treasuries ..( eventually even that trade is going to fail..but not quite there yet..the Doom Mungers of last 25 years will be right 'eventually' .and we are CLOSE ..bUIt I still think the we have more to run before the 'reset' or whatever u call it - i.e. loss of US Hegemony tbd)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyMzM5Nl8yMzEyODY2Ng
DBC - corrective ..could be done ..or complex one ...tbd ..CRB..Oil high correlation to this
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUyMzI2Nl8yMzEyODUzNA
EOD TODAY was important - and 1st real confirmation of a large IT type down move here ( even if we swing up ...even if we retest of make marginal new highs..rthough, the model is now leaning quite strongly AGAINST retest/new high before a large down move)
TOMORROW IS HUGE because I see a great setup to test 4950 CYCLE SUPPORT - I'd put the degree of Pivot as high as that for me.
>>- IF we get that test And What happens there is going to allow the Model and me ..to make a call whether
- we Swing back up now ( as I say, I doubt a retest..but could get 75% retrace
OR
- trend down now...and to where.
Right now, from everything it looks higher odds actually that we will FAIL 4950 ..and move in fairly straight down fashion to 4800 area ....which would be another Cycle Pivot.
But - tomorrow will add informaiton and could change the setup and probable outcome ...as always, just trying to be clear , precise, unambiguous and Ahead of the move - as hindsight can't be traded alas.
btm line - I'm looking for test of 4950 tomorrow ...it could be delayed but setup is high odds ...and expect a bounce ..nature of which will be big tell, but I'm expecting a failure ..and 'surprise' move down to 4800 area over next few weeks...it less looks crash here more just grinding reprice ...when I mention a crash ..it would likely be after a failure AT 4800 ...if that comes down the road ...way off right here but just laying it out.
Well oil just surged ...if this is correct..its classic example of two things i went over
1. How 'news' FOLLOWS technicals in most cases..definitely this one AND
2. That PTB are pulling the strings as i went over at length re: Isreal/Iran etc ...
II hope the reports are wrong but the markets suggests otherwise..we shall see.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-tumble-oil-and-gold-soar-reports-huge-explosions-central-iran-israeli-airstrikes
If so, then the Gap down on indexes is likely a breakaway 'bull trap of all time'.
If so - Short term see flight to safety into Bonds, USD, GOLD ..but bond move will be temporary in my view.
FYI putting everything together ..and its ALOT...and i've shown some of it over last few months.
- THESE are the BEST and VERY CLOSE Matches I see to now ...massive rhymes
- I used 5 year interest rate pattern i've shown ...but ...its only one aspect ..
- of these ..for me...the closest is the first 'shock drop' in 2007 ...then got one more retest of high ( as per earlier 'ideal' setup ..but ..!) ......OR 2nd I actually have to say 2020 drop ...more complex to explain why ...that one doesn't have the Rate setup we is crazy same here if u see it ...but has ALOT of others such as LQ, and other 'stuff'... I certainly couldn\'t rule out a move like that here.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxOTMyNl8yMzEyNDA5Nw
HEADS UP - I rarely say this ..but ..I have to say what I see based on the model/data etc or there' s not much point this
- This is starting to look REALLY FUGLY to me ..I don't have time to go over it now so simply say:
- the internals are giving Big warning
- the Sentiment is big Warning ( unless it change rapidly here..more on that below)
- Price behavior is starting to warn ( watch 4950)
I would say the slower we grind down here with bounces and growing 'Buy the dip' ( I've confirmed with multiple independent signals now ..this is RARE ..and shows entrenched BTFD)
- the more RISK is RISING ...of certainly an IT down move as I've said but
> That we have actually MADE the GENERATIONAL TOP ...which sounds insane even to me ...as it 'feels' to what 'should happen' here is
---> a IT drop ..or long range and drop . ( 4) ...another UP CYCLE maybe later 2024 or even 'somehow' into 2025....to marginal new highs ....THEN that top
But ..^this is the kind of 'is the market going to make it that easy' type issue - I don't think so here from what is shaping up
- IF the CB hadn't created this latest artificial up move and mania ..then I'd say the 'obvious(to me at leasT) 4...5..... would play out ...but THAT Raises alot of RISK ..as they are forced to lower System LQ here
- I say one step at time ...but as I said month ago this is now a MAX RISK to bull side setup and historic downside move is higher than 'normal' risk ...here e we are.
- I actually think this SLOW SLIDE is max danger ...a faster and 'fear spike' move might have me less concerned.
I could be totally wrong - perhaps the CB can step in tomorrow and press 'up' on the LQ ...but...they way things are looking ..infact they NEVER looked right here on this move ..well duh ..its insane as I went over to do what they did ..for reasons we still don't know I believe...
..IF LQ does what it seems likely to do AND retail do what they have been 'trained' to do by it ... well this would actually make sense ...
- which is NOT to say we 'crash' ..but boy, If EVER ..just sayin' certainly RISK is undefinable here.
April 18 - Another brick out the Wall
Bonds - looks very corrective as expected ...so ..eitehr a longer 'hold up move' or we goto new higher yields very soon ...
Dollar - same
CRB-oil seeing the longer .down move .but looks corrective..probably also another attempt here on oil to hold it down piggy backing on natural drop as per chart/count...but eventually...I see another leg up ..timing tbd
Stocks - I went over a fair bit yesterday...looking for a failure of the bounce that started ..we go open drop and another bounce ..which fully cycled the ST model to sell ...now sell off
- it could be a '4' type move ...now 5 ...or variations tbd
- but I still expect we get into close most of or rest of gap below before chance of swing up.
As I alluded to - its absolutely CRITICAL on my Model - what we do here ..another low ..and especially daily low ..and model probability dramatically shifts toward a IT type down move ..which likely will NOT hold the gap below as Swing low ...but go on to lower lows and major technical damage ( I am yet to discuss).
So a I said ..today is most important session in 5 months ..
TNX near term
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxODk0NV8yMzEyMzUwMw
WEEKLY TRENDICATOR as said on UP - so, at worst I now see only shallow multi day pullback or down weeks into the summer .... probably need to test the old TNX /TLT highs even for that.
Only other thing worth looking at today DBC
- its price and signal in area where bounce 'shd' materialize IF this is short term corrective
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxODg4N18yMzEyMzQzMA
I could also see ONE more down leg and fast reversal - so keep one eye here..
oil is similar ..I think any move back above $83 confirms corrective ..and trouble is coming..with as usual a bit of patience ! :-)
I'll make another Big picture call here already
- The 5 month CB upward reprice .is over.. the BOX trapped them and we went step by step call that, and proving the 'logic is sound' ..thus is very low odds the CB could re-juice until the BOX allows it again i.e. by prolonger dropping LQ
- The drop on internals, and now price has already gone too far to be '4' of some 5 up the last 5 month ..Infact, its lack any structure at all become is generated by a computer ALGO not humans ..only human on the last few weeks as LQ. begin to drain.
- Thus - logically, whatever this is ...and CB actions have made using a 'natural count' since 2023 worthless ...its has ..or WILL have if above is correct .. TERMINAL CHARACTERISTICS on the Cycle degree .....which Is what I needed to see as I laid out month ago ...IF instead, we had continued up parabolically and Box NOT contained the CB infinite LQ ....who knows! ..but that did not happen as I predicted it wouldn't.
The nuisances we can now try to go one step at Time ...but ^this is Huge and as I said
- Multiple out come into summer as 'possible' the most likely is either
- long drawn out sideways and IT drop Or
- A crash ..one of very rare times as I said its possible ..though also, CB will save it 95%
ST MOdel - very highs odds more selling here .. 4980 gap close is very high odds min ..
- the real damage would occur if a bounce there fails over...and we drop under 4950 as indicated on the charts I posted ..its looking increasingly likely to occur on the model ..but one step at time.
Disclaimer - the ST model is ALOT more than One signal, or even just signals BUT
- This is one visually simple ( If I could and feel need to find a oe to create one signal aggregate ..but its alot of work ..not this year..I'm taking a 'year out' for myself LOL ..but ..down the road ..this would be the one thing I should do )
- u will 'see' the idea ..and why, a Low here is very low odds ...the rest of model 'agrees'.
- so unless the CB press a button ...and unfortunately, they do it 'randomly' on occasion LOL ... and that's all it takes to Destry your trading account is the problem ...then ..well trading odds favor down as I've gone over with all that implies.
- what this signal is show, and there is some 'math' and some 'judgement' to me is ..that human and human trained alto's are 'fully trained BTFD' ..whilst other ALgo's are selling ..and until the humans quit it ...we won't swing low.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxODg5NF8yMzEyMzQ1MQ
FRIDAY - DOWN potential here again .. given the setup ..
- 4950 is the HUGE NUMBER for me ..on the model ..if there's going to be a 'save' it comes there... watching closely!
FYI - I am also seeing REPRICE effect now
- CB LQ ALGO's force price up
- humans are small factor and coming in at tops
- NOW - as LQ is removed ..humans keep buying ( as signals show)
-> but prices FALL NOT just due to ALGO selling but due to a complicated idea I call Re- Pricing
- in simple terms, the LACK buying by CB ..prices want to find 'natural equilibrium on all timeframes' ...
I can see it in that - LQ DROP versus PRICE DROP ....prices are now falling MORE than LQ drop ...even with humans in BTFD ...
- the best lows come when LQ drops a ton, and price doesn't .(Price has found RTE equilibrium) ..Or .LQ goes up until Price turns up ( forced low) - NEITHER APPLY here YET.
Tagged 5000 - another bounce coming here.
with CB off the tape ...
- price is showing nice waves and signals working perfectly
We did some sort 'abc' from yessterday into AM high ..now 5 minor drop...now another bounce ...its hard to say the context/count ...doesn't look right as '4' though its a flat which is typical ..tbd ....
- I just now watch each move/bounce area ..see what we get etc ...
- lets see what this one doe s- I feel this is more getting into humans BTFD versus ALGO selling which is what I said before this ..but we can confirm ...
- util ST MOdel LQ/VIX at least move to buy - ALGO as more likely to sell the humans BTFD ...
- there sometimes 'surprises' ..but this is very orderly so far!
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxODg3M18yMzEyMzQxNQ
April 17 - finally!
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxNDE4M18yMzExNzYzMQ
Yep that iv ..v ..or ( or alt) is those big break away gap - Now, we will see....whether we get fast reversal back up ..OR this now morphs into a technically damaging move.
Commodities as discussed into a longer pullback here.
* tentative count - on DBC ..but apply to oil, CRB etc - signal suggest more time needed for bottom
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxNDIzOF8yMzExNzcwMQ
Bond in the corrective bounce I marked yesterday ...I don't see anything there to change that view...so that looks like conclusive break of pivots...and trend is now to higher yields ..
* TLT here on signal..turning up...but wave pattern and higher degree signals are 'trending'...so I'd look for confirmation by lower low on TLT on this signal ...before more bounce...I cd wrong and we get longer bounce here first.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxNDI1Ml8yMzExNzcxNQ
dollar also correctie ...up trend established.
So, all pretty much as per setups ...and the next big read is where major indexes go next tbd
HEADS UP - TOMORROW is Most important Sessions for 5 months ! on my stuff.
More later.
There is no easy way to show the LQ model ..this is simple signal shows LQ Cycles and whether they go to mean or extreme reversion -
- what we are more interested in is ..how does Price react ..
- we see just before big drop cycle fails to cycle then
- today its cycling but price made new low .
^this is notable and shows effect of Low LQ when Price is WAY above equilibrium near term price ( price 'naturally' without the recent LQ ALGO buying - I'm not talking longer term, there are degrees here also, so, the last 5 days of LQ support with LAG)
For a buy - u generally want to see the opposite, price holding or moving up as LQ cycles down to RTM or RTE ....
- nothing is holy grail...but also VIX shows similar ...so puts higher as said that bounce will fail ...until we cycle down again.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxNDc4MF8yMzExODM4NA
FYI here it is on longer timeframe ..I tried various configurations and this one u can use same principles ... I did others and was very revealing! It shows very clear When the CB are FORCING the move with LQ ..up or down ..3 times since 2007 UP ( 2009, 2 down ...I'll show another time.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxNDc4OV8yMzExODQwOA
Here is the longer term chart marked up -
- Sorry to say the Data/Stati's don't lie ! - just look at this recent peak!!!
- I say 'high odds' because I cannot be 100% certain ..more 95% certain as 'system LQ' is not always in CB 'hands' or 'forced' but I've experience all those markets and this confirms my experience ..
- certain of 2007, 2009/10, 2019 (that was SICK by CB) ..and this one. ..it maybe 2020 was natural drop in system Lq
- note. whilst many LQ moves are close to 'extreme' ( marked by lines) - they are 'choppy' and not the 'strong unnatural LQ moves' like now ...also its 'log scale' so big difference to 'almost' hence so few reach those line s..and lo behind they match as said incredibly rare times we all suspected CB interventions ( those of us could see it on tape ).
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/OTUxNDc5NF8yMzExODQxMw
OK Critical now here
- we have to my eye. impulse up intraday off right 'v' zone ..
- So we 'shd' power up now ...if 'all is as it was' and market LQ is there
- IF we roll over today..its very bad...or if we bounce for hours/days and then roll over its likely very bad
So HUGE TELL here on health of market.
Ha ha - the Matrix is becoming one of my best tools -
Things obvious to me from it
- Oil is going higher ..because, every drop is a CRASH apparently
- Dollar is going higher - as dollar is doomed and will be destroyed imminently
FYI - First HINT from LQ = it's Not Playing ball ...interesting ...!!
Too early to be sure and I want to see last hours but the pattern indicates this.
IF So - I predict ALGO's are more likely in SELL mode than Buy mode ...and retail as 'all in' ...so who will buy? ...this is the issue ..options traders also quadrupled down on this drop ...
As said - this is Huge tell area for me here.
ALSO - the ST MODEL is back. up and running now LQ is falling ..and as usual is thing of beauty when CB ALGo isn't taking us vertical :-)
- It shows us 2/3 cycled back from RTE buy to RTM or RTE SELL
- in other words ...if we don't bounce hard into the close ..and or even sell off..its very high odds as 'failure' and we go to lower low ....and close rest of gap below....we'll probably then get another shot ...model doesn't 'predict' but its great at identifying the highest prob' whether bounces will fail, and drops will bounce zones.
- In particular the Volatility & Credit along with LQ are WARNING here 'something isn't right' on the bounce if it were C and done and now Swing up ...but one step time ..its just nice after 5 month of CB ALGO vertical simulation to have something else to talk about LOL
HMM - I'll make the early call here
- that Spike up and reverse ..along with the ST model ..
- I see higher odds we Fail on this current bounce and make a lower low into that gap below ..on SPX toward 4080-5000 area ..*before chance to have a upside reversal.
Each STEP is VERY Important to me here ..its one of those situations where we are more 'bottom up' then 'top down' in the larger Cycles ...
My best guess - we are in '4' of 5 down ..NOT 'C' ...OR subway of 3 or C down tbd.
While were counting - Oil/CRB etc could ve subway iv ..now v of C down ..(see chart above) ..in which case minor new low then bounce.
MAJOR HEADS UPS EOD - Hmmmm. big Picture comment
Disclaimer - this is EARLY CALL ..but ...
I had some time today to look over the entire Model ( its alot - to include weekly/monthly longer term)
I see some things - I don't have time today and need charts but btm line
- we are Now in a Really INFORMATIVE PERIOD for the Cyclical/Secular or 'primary wave' setup for me.
- I am now starting to see some things I wanted to see ..but I need more 'proof' which will likely take months due to timescales were dealing with ..or 'could' take ...I shd say
- the EURO INDEXES are showing me more 'real patterns' because they don't have as much CB artificial effect .
It amounts to THIS - I believe we are in Wave 4 ..of 3 ...of final 5th ...to be confirmed
- CRITICAL thoughts on this:
- we don't always get '4' '5' on TERMINALS ...we 'could' be don't have to ..in modern markets that is often the Kicker ..its '3 wave legs'.
So its going to be almost impossible to 'call the top' in that sense in foresight -
- I am more just looking for confirmation of the TERMINAL 5th Cyclical of Primary
- it looks like 2023 was it ..but CB decided to go to new level of insanity and we go this 1.2.3 of 5th ...could be 4 starting ..or could still need some terminal subways of 3 ..that's what I want to see.
TIMEWIS e- it tells me there is a small chance ...that..if ALL the waves plated out ..that 'somehow' we get 4 ...5 into 2025 .... I don't think there would be much higher highs..just marginal..tbd ...thart is what I'm not looking to see ...the Envelope/pattern here.... that's the 'best case' for bulls I see.
- Worst case is we CRATER NOW ... we are now at the ealierst point of that window ..if 3's all truncated ...unlikely without an external event as I've discussed..but setup is 'possible'.
I think it get WAY more interesting from here on out ..that's the bottom line ...and each new information helps me refine this
Btm line - ALOT depends on next few sessions in term of near term ..but model is looking good via LQ tracking ..its been dead on there e...and its finally drained ... so we have shot as now ending this '3' ( higher odds its done ..but might retest highs ) ....and then into spring/summer we get a IT drop '4' ..that could morph into fractal repeat somewhat of 2022 ...(tbd) ....THEN 'we'll see'
- as I said month + ago RISK on long side going to stratosphere..and even more so now ..
- Surprises are far more likely now to downside ...though...it could go into a long slow drag here tbd
^this is going to be fascinating I think and I'm sure I'll learn something important for future, learned alot here last few years for investing timeframe model.