My usual Unique Technical Analysis of markets …with a few ‘perception shifts’ thrown in …no double speak … tell it like I see it …don’t claim to know the future, only the approximate odds of up, down or ranging outcomes - using my Model-data and objective experience since 1998 of markets.
Getting a rally but so far its no barn burner ...so its 'sorta' enough $ for 5th ..at least on some indexes..tech now lagging.
Bonds dropping cd be significant for weekly close tbd
But dollar to me looking l ike bottoming action ..impulsive bounce now retracement.
Its complex - as it always is in the LQ normalizing phase ... I think ..its a 'guess' that next week will see finally normalization ..I cd be wrong of course.
SENTIMENT - WOW this is really something now ...much more of this and we will see the kind of readings that 'make sense' for super cycle peak ....probably not price peak as said.
Call buying in particular ..yikes ... if we get another week of retail polls at current levels or near...it will rival others i've seen as well..amazing how quick this happened...that is VERTY unusual ..probably the FASTEST SPIKE/PEAK of Retail bullishness ratio to bearishness in history...power of the Matrix.
Judging from Matrix output - I'll make a CALL - TODAY was the EUPHORIA PEAK
Which doesn't say it can't last longer, or a bit higher....and says nothing about PRICE...but in terms of generating the sort of Euphoria I expected...I'd say we are there ..quite crazy..usually take much longer ...this is getting fascinating.
Oh wait - so Science was right and $science was wrong, shocked, shocked I say ...I like how under oath and out of office this Is said, dont' expect the Matrix to share it ..I will still be banned. on all platforms if I said this ..this is why I was banned by YouTube for quoting 60 years of studies which all proved this and that 1+1=2 since viruses are 10-6 meters or smaller and holes are 10-3 or bigger ...but hey, nope I was banned for saying just that.. where is my apology? LOL
No doubt the Matrix will now dismiss this as 'crazy conspiracy talkl' and find the one study in 100 ( literally true this) that show mask help...paid for by guess who LOL
Dow leading now is it??! comp and spx dragging during the super positive EOM into Dec.
Sentiment continuous on the trajectory I've laid out.
TNX and USD had every chance here to breakdown and take out critical levels ..both haven't ..lets see where the EOM and EOW closes are which are critical ..I am leaning despite appearances and Matrix relentless output the likes of which I've rarely seen ..that its not going to be so easy ...and as said, they are bottoming again but tbd
I'll repost this chart from last night..I think it's probably the simplest visual of what belief of our position.
TOMORROW - is going to be FIRST REALLy Big TELL on this move ...( and possibly bonds)
- if it gaps up and runs ..then still some $ for a 5th up
- if it churn ..then are at exhaustion
- but if GAPS DOWN..and gets into 14000 gap on comp...then I believe I can start to make a call here and we are starting a swing down ....there may be retests of the recent highs for move...or just go ...
FYI - retail bull to bear sentiment just hit highest levels it typically reaches ....AAII confirmed my other data ... this is NOT typically the 'final high' ...but its often where exhaustion comes and a retracement ...EXCEPT in major IT 3rtd up waves which are very rare ....
-->>SO - I'm thinking aloud here a bit ..as I said I was thinking about some 'stuff'.
I put in these intraday blog - my 'real time thoughts' mostly ...and some of it helps me to make those Video posts down the road ..which it seems most people subscribed read ..but most don't read this ... which I get ...but really, the video's are a lot less detail and misses a lot I put here.
oh - I was going to say something on this point ..got distracted..I forget..! :-) t will come back to me I hope ...and I will put below...
OH! yes ..so there are some things I will 'chat about' here...but I don't feel I can put in the video's. Specifically, information I get from my property management connections. So, basically I work closely with the owner of vast amount of real estate ..who is 'connected' to people in all key area's of real economy ..especially credit/banking/real estate and other businesses ... AND also through my work ..which involves dealing with many businesses..workers..and those paying rents/there finances and applicants and their financial and industry data for rental pricing etc etc ... its a 'Birds Eye view' of real time real world economy ...and I don't feel I can post than in my videos' but only 'chat' here.
- what I'm 'hearing' ( this is very firm data ) is there is a MAJOR CREDIT CRUNCH in banking sector and THAT is what LED CB to FLOOD Liquidity ( seen by many observers in hindsight now ...but I told u using my real time measure s..big difference!) ..
- and yes this has temporarily as it always does...eased the credit markets But
- its NOT helping the 'real world' credit ...if anything from what I hear..its worrying the banks and others into stricter policy on fear of the fact such action was needed ..they aren't stupid and the top level people I know understand to reasonable level ..the game here.
So bottom line is the consensus form ^this .and discussion we have to look out in 2024 for our rental pricing etc ..is we are SLOWLY seeing conditions tighten ..some area's of economy are going fast ..certain retail sectors in big trouble here ....I think u will see some of thing in data from Black Friday trough new year .... but the CB and GOVT are throwing so much LQ at this ..to try to stop the major effects of a contraction before Nov 2024...
- it looks like they can succeed in stocks ...somewhat in bonds..tbd ..CRB ..unkown I need to analyze this more
- and in slowly pace down ...so I still put us similar to eartly 2000 and mid 2007 in terms of this here now.
BUT - One we get to say Aug-Sept 2024 its likely this support will be removed, as there will be COSTS (I want to think this through more before predicting those costs) ...certainly buy late 2024 ... to then I predict
- 2025-2026 will be FUGLY in real world economy AND stocks...as we 'catchup' and the CB/Govt try to get the bad out the way In 1st year of 4 year cycle.
^THIS all assume many things ..in markets..that no black swan arises..and the RISK of Black swan is part of COSTS I just mentioned due to this historic level of 'meddling' in natural order ..beyond then now normal levels of insane meddling that is.
^this is important post .but I don't like to say it videos.
Yeah ..also ..I think that is why that A/D chart if so important ..simple.
- most of time it doesn't matter and move up, and with price
- a lot of people now ignore A/D line because of this and says it not predictive
- but 'we will see' ..as per what I marked.
I believe it is showing you TWO things -
1. Is classic TA - that smart money see's trouble..and is selling it but then hiding in the hot sectors (AI-tech area and some other) .. but
2. CB/Govt LQ has to go somewhere...so hot sectors go supernova and are enough to push indexes up to cause the negative divergences...
This means there is enough insiders/smart money knowing what's coming aka 2000, 2007 ...I don't believe u would see this effect in modern market post 2009 ( it's been vertical A/D since then.) UNLESS there was significant distrubition by smart money ...we would instead just see major ATH and a somewhat weaker A/D line ...but this is a very pronounced NEg div in face of massive LQ ... so to me, that is FAR more significant ..... hence, once the LQ is ended ...u get the drill ... unless of course CB LQ is permanent but its never been in past ... because there is a COST
- dynfunction/ distortion of credit markets ..a complex discussion..but smart people there see the spigot and play it ..its criminal really of course..its not 'investment' then but 'insider trade'
- foreign players and CB counter th e move by fear of longer term ..and as we now started ...selling US asset s...so then CB has to keep increasing the LQ ...to point where RISK of 'total loss of confidence' is $ asset s..we are CLOSE to this pint the END GAME ..and don't believe we are there THIS cycle ..and that CB will risk that...so this is main limit ....
ALT is NOW 4...then 5 up to come ..and easier on Davidson Fractals (DF)( I'm rebranding LOL ..to avoid the trigger word 'waves')
- use 14000 on COMP ..which that last big gap up ... if its 4 its can't go into that...
^this is how DF is totally different to EW ... I have precise numbers for key pivots not subjective opinion....it's not predictive ...but it at least cuts down the number of setups ..and then use the signals/model to give odds of those fewer setups...not rocket science, but most don't seem to grasp this idea.
IT follows on the chart I posted last night..I've held that one back for long while to confirm with current up move seeing yet another negative A/D divergences.
SO I think we are getting a fascinating sort of COMBO of 2000 & 2007 here... with a tech bubble.. I was working in it in 2000. .. that was based around internet, this one around AI ..... and the 2007 collapse which was based around 'virtuous to vicious' cycle or simply a 'credit bubble bursting' .... this is different in my view though, its one degree higher but that a topic of one of those longer video/podcasts....but does NOT mean that tI expect similar stock market outcomes ...this is just the underlying CONTEXT ....I will explain this more in time ...if anything ..as we're seeing
- it likely. will SLOW it ALL DOWN ..as the SHEER PANIC of CB's leads to what were' seeing ..even bigger 'saves' ... and also...because like a large tidal wave..it take more Time for the 'water' to gather first out ...before it rushes in ... what those in systems physics would call momentum.
- THEN we have to add the K-Spring CONTEXT of REFLATION unlike 2000 & 2007.
I must admit, I am more and more looking out to 2030 to a hyper inflationary event that is the final act of this show...but one step at time.
Yes, but it wasn't really just that Govt control the information flow, its that
- the Govt isn't the Govt and arre owned by Blackrock and others and doing Pharma bidding
- corrupted Science into $cience as a result
- when people if ever understand this, they won't ever trust any real science again..as I pointed out at time ..and was banned by youtuvebe for saying just this !!! ..Orwell laughed and rolled in his grave I believe.
This was a modern day Milligram Experiment on whole population - to see who would default to 'I believe the authority figures' rather than 'I will think for myself and although I don't understand the science, I know not to trust sources who have lied to me many times in the past'.
As those who've followed me for 20 years+_ know, I've warned this would happen ..and preached on it ... in support of real science over the $science ...but nothing can stop the PTB ..they are all powerful and control most minds as I've also said for 20 years ... they aren't going to stop now are they? after such success.
Thread slowing down so I'll start a NEW THREAD for DEC!
We are in Key DECISION Wndow now into end of week and early next week on
- Bonds. TNX just flirted with break of that key support area
- DOllar ..I did'nt have time to post chart but I've got great pattern setup there..shd be bottoming now in this period
- Stocks ...today is first real sign ..failed gap up ...unless it reverses to new highs by the close
As said I think the EOM, EOW in our current setups is going to be informative finally on what type of CB LQ/InstaQE effect we get here compared to past.
HEADS UP - Starting to see some MASSIVE WARNINGS today
- Call buying is Highest in a DECADE except for near peak of March 2022 rally which was similar to this one
- Credit model showing some very high odds sells - and trending to extreme's if we continue up that have been 'very dangerous' for Risk in market historically.
Today - yes, this looks tentatively like a terminal 5th ... cd be ED or other ...on spx/comp anyway ..so I'm looking for 'more of the same' into EOM/W ...and eventually a sharp drop.
Uh-huh but it looks corrective off todays opening gap up ...it depends on tomorrow..I would 'guess' ( not really but u know what I mean.) .we see some up down volatility pick up here ..into end of week ..but I am looking for this to terminate into a 'surprise' fast persistent drop ..that is atypical .....if its more choppy/backsweepy...it might be something more.
I think tomorrow and Friday are TWO of most important sessions for long time ..then likely Mon-wed next week ..its likely going to give me first real read on Swing/IT setup since the CB InstaQE LQ
HEADS UP - I believe CALL BUYING is CLOSE to RECORD
Put buying is hiding this ..so on CBOE ratio is not showing it ..but ISEE data
and other data is showing close to historical levels and rate of change of call buying.
Does this matter? no yet ...were in CB LQ-InstaQE forced upmove-ville ...but, down the road ...it has always mattered ..except in 1999 ....then the 'its mattered' got delated by 6 months ...I don't believe this is good data point to compare...dot-com=AI bubble sure...but nothing else matches.
1. Making some sort of swing top into Friday/early next week then
2. Some sort of retracement drop then
3. One final up move in 'Xmas rally'
No idea of exact levels of any of it YET .. but the general idea was for Comp to a little stronger than dow or spx ..and for other indexes like Russell to have topped already on this current swing up.
- BUT - ...RISK is rising rapidly again ...so there a few 'disclaimers' to this that we need to watch ...not suitable for quick comment but cover in next update.
TNX - USD - CRB ...all way more complicated ..so not touching that for a quick comment ..but dollar I do believe will bottom next 1-2 weeks 'ish then take off in strong up move.
HEADS UP - Substack Informed me of MAJOR UPGRADE to video platform ..
It look quite interesting .. and I will hopefully at weekend have time to see I f I can incorporate new features ... I think it will be useful for 'you' the listener more than for. me such as
- AI generated transcripts.( these aren't perfect but they are useful)
- auto gendered pod-cast ( it tend to do charts but I have thought about podcast for my longer 'chat' stuff ..and I have some 'guests' who I have been discussing adding to my 'stuff' )
- pay wall for original content in videos' - NO I don't intend to charge for now - it maybe useful only to protect certain content If I decide to show more of the proprietary model and work ...to copyright and avoid people posting it all over ht place as happened to me ALOT in early 2000's and why went to private blog ... this would only matter if I decided to 'promote' my work ..which I don't ... and haven't ..but might ...I tend to think 'why I am doing this' start of each yea r....I have always blogged mostly as said for my own 'sanity check' ..I've been very good for me ... but ..see below.
There probably some other stuff In there ..will take a look ...I use Snagit currently which isn't great.... if the video recording platform is more seamless ...I'd swap to it.
YEAh - so ALSO HEADS UP - 2023 has been a crazy year for me stress wise due to family 'stuff' ...probablty the most stress 8 months of my life ..its a little better right now. I took a job that pays well and is 'fun' for me in this period as well, because it helps my READ of markets/economy ( even more than I hoped, but I can't say too much..I'll just say due to 'contact network' into 'what's really going on' ) ....and isn't too energy draining but it is time consuming a bit ...though into 2024 I think less so now I've learnt most of the property manager job ....So
- I would LIKE to think ..ha ha ..best laid plans etc ..that 2024 will afford me a lot less stress and time /energy to get back to my passions -
- markets/economy - I don't really want to deal with paid subscribers, promoting etc ...OTH I see that if I wanted to ..I could likely build a pretty big subscriber base ..and leverage it for other things ...of course, they I ask 'why do that' ..I'll be honest.. it just to worth it for me ..unless I could make a lot of $ ...making small amounts is pointless to me not meaning to sound glib ... but If I could make 100K + then I could free up time ..to do OTHER projects ....bt its kinda against my nature to ask for $ for information /market stuff ...so if I did..I'd rather do it by having a large base and asking for small amounts ..than the crazy to me amount people ask for their makret/traidng signals ... also, I'd want to run a model portfolio or trackable timing model to be tracked ...its all TIME .
Really I'm More interested just expanding the experiment I did with YouTube videos and this but also other subjects ...and brining in friends of mine - yep more TIME! ...and I have to manage myself with my autoimmune etc ....though I think I am able to do more and more and keep getting better and better ..so I am looking more ahead to next 10-20 years and what I want to focus on / accomplish and get starting .getting too old to say 'ill do that down the road'... 56 ...though probably more like most 40 y/0 age wise...
- so my obsession with health and exercise is one big part I want to do more
- and same with 'balance' - as I see it ..mind/body/'spirit' if u like
- mental health wrapped up in all this
I've got some backers and encouragers for all this as well ....
Its not a 'race' but I would like to expand on what I experimented with ..just do it better LOL... I learnt a lot doing what I did ...the interviews, personal video's ...but want to take it next few steps.
Basically - I'd like to create a more 'professional'. for want of better word ..'portal' for aLL my 'stuff' ...so it's not just Mish - mash ... but as I say ...its been tough to do much in 2023....but I am trying to think on/plan this for 2024... if the 'Gods' allow...If not - oh well! I control northing I know that :-)
Perhaps I can get myself cloned or AI version who can do all this for me? :-)
Meh - but meh is important at this point as gone over..lets see where we end today.
I saw this data, its backward looking for isn't real time like my LQ model, but, its damning confirmation by a different method ..as if we needed it! of CB liquidity injections ..they are playing a crazy game here for sure.
FIRST SIGNS- LQ to PRICe divergergence ... LQ still rising..slowly ( it too is likely a feedback effect not more CB ...only that 4 sigma spikes are CB) ... and price now significantly lagging ..surpirsng as just said below in thie EOM period here...too early to be sure..will be clearer by EOM and EOW
If I ever want to remind myself that '99.9%' of everything I've ever read is BS ...then I search Kratom ..and start reading LOL ... wow, even crazier is that is banned in UK ..and try to ban it here.
In my long search for HELP with my medical issue starting aged 11 .. not one doctor of scores I saw until age 45 helped me .. and only medication that helped me was Prednisone ..but gave me pre-diabetes, chronic gastritis and depression within 2 years ... and stopped helping.
Kratom is the ONLY thing I've found on that long journey that works as well - and doesn't have ANY negative effects for me ... only positive ...and has't lost effectiveness. I tried at LEAST 500 drugs/substances ... it's th eONLY one ..think about that.
Then I go read what Pharma/Medical say - paraphrased 'it crazy dangerous and should be banned ...and it doesn't work because we haven't run any studies' ...shocking eh? LMFAO
Look, a lot of things are 'addictive' - sugar, caffeine and sex ...but I won't be giving them up either :-). ...yes, it's mildly addictive at about equivalence to that ...but mostly because it DOES WORK as 'they' know full well - hence their desire to ban it, and demonize it ...its always about $$ and NOT about the well being/health of the 'farm animals' as that's the reality - they farm humans and its incredibly profitable ...they farmed them with drugs that don't mostly work, NOW they are making everyone sick and then selling them more 'stuff' - great business model, and look around every city at all the new shiny buildings ...all medical complex - but they are TRUTH aND ETHICALLY BANKRUPT on level of the Devil ! LOL
Earliest learnt truth - DOSE determines the POISON ...too much water, or salt can kill you.
Kratom at doses MOST people take how no short term negatives ...long term harder to say..but evidence is not there either. It DOES however have amazing positives for those us living.( or 'living dead' ) with severe migraines daily, chronic health /pain and other ...
BUT - of course ...people with addictive personalities will abuse it ..er, as they are ADDICTS ...that is their issue. Funny we ignore alcohol and now weed ( which is useless compared to Kratom BTW for practical daily living pain management and anxiety/depression which Katom is great for ) ....
But OF COURSE its helps to be SMART how to use it ..I've learned a lot last 2 years... through my ow trial and error ...sadly, because 99.9% of what I read is 'narrative propaganda' as per usual.
Translate this point to 'markets' the 'economy' or most other issue these days..
- we have gone from 'bad information' to 'manufactured narratives' ...the former was excusable human limitations, the later is 'evil' and mass mind control ...now add AI into this and the Matrix dumbing down and clubbing down and Pharma mind/body corruption of mass and its ain't a pretty direction to me... its almost impossible to 'help' people, as 99.9% are as result incapable of 'listening' or comprehending outside of the farming system.
If we're going with 'flat iv' ..then today is start V up ....so I think it's quite important how weak/strong we close today..and action tomorrow ...as I've discussed ( the RELATIVE indicator in normalizing 'retail chase' phase)
Honestly, it's hard to resist the Matrix as the polls I showed .... I am VERY interest to see the AAII and more the NAIIM poll ..I noticed a signal there that has been gold on backtest for years ... it would be crazy to get that signal here...but I would not be surprised given what I'm seeing ... call me very keen observer here :-)
ALSO -! last 2 days of month and 1st into end week and seasonal strength - so if we don't take off to upside into end of week its strong confirmation of exhaustion ...we literally have seen no selling since the LQ injection ... this is. a very extreme price move as result ... as I've said ..the TELL on the NATURAL market comes later...not during an CB FORCED UP move.
SOME WEAKNESS here is informative ..but its the move into the cLOSE that is key as said
- if we rally again...likely is V
- if we drop again...hmmm...that wd be 'surprising' and likely signal the next Lifecycle change .... confirmed if we then drop harder tomorrow...then watch bonds and dollar as well.. moot until I see then discuss
I say its iv ..now v ..as pattern off AM LOW is impulsive ....
btm line - we're at a critical decision window tue-fri this week on bonds stock dollar... looking for new data and signals here ..and to see how close we are to normalization...LQ STILL hasn't dropped ...so as per data I posted from article the CB are trying to play both sides
- QT but shorter term 'QE" via LQ methods ...NET NET that have been JUICING in 2023 as multiple data perspectives show ( mine, and ones in articles)
So, WTF are they trying to do? ...answers on postcard LOL
I'm thinking about this ...I keep coming back to TIMING .....there is no doubt they are trying to TIME SOMETHING .. the real question is what ? and why? .. I hate to say its political for Nov 2024...but seem the obvious answer...try to lag it out to there whilst achieving goal of getting rates sky high ! but without killing stocks..YET...post Nov 2024 is whole other ball game I believe ...re: my 2007 analogy.
Interesting times ... and I love that ... I love the challenge ..but this is pretty nuts...and that's on a 1990 to 2023 'normalized curve' of nuttiness :-)
I also thought friday Imbalance Data was an ERROR - so I didn't mention it ..but ..it might not be...I'll wait to monday AM to be sure ...but 99% it isn't because multi vendor data and timeframe checks are same - across multi instruments ..so
- lets assume its correct - Um, then HOLY MOTHER of IMBALANCE spike ...maybe weird friday trading has effect? I checked...but doesn't appear case either
btm line - If it see ONE more of thee spikes next week - I am going to call it - that we're going to get a significant drop ... we MAY already have enough accumulation but we need LQ to at least drop a bit ..hasn't so far which is shocking CB systemic support as discussed at length
The ratio of bulls to bear, the absolute number of bears and the 4 week moving averages of both are as extreme retail bullishness to extreme retail lack of bearishness as i've EVER seen ...maybe seasonality some effect and I don' have data kept - I will wait to compare to other polls I like less AAII for example ..but if confirmed .. DOUBLE YIKES ... IF LQ is ever removed, retail will be 3rd time holding the bag here in last 12-18 months...got to be a record.
Thur Nov 16 - Starting to see some patterns/setup on Bonds
We will see - but I see a fractal ..it suggests this is indeed 4 of 5 as I've been saying ..but ONE smaller DEGREE than the previous 4th wave ..the pattern match is very high ..but need a few more steps such as next
- slow chop here ..slight down next few sessions but holding key support ( I'll check but around 44 I think)
- then grind up and down for a week
- then swing up - that will be A down B up ...then C down to finish 4 of 5
- this would all take a while..when I have time ..and a working computer! I will map it out and show chart..assuming price continue to fit.
NOW - it could also be complete to upside ..and 1 down..if we break that key support and impulse into 1.2.3 ..... but its lower odds on the model of now.
FOr sure ..the CB flood HEROIN or LQ or whatever term u want to FLOODING THROUGH the SYSTEM ...producing buying in bonds ...selling in dollar ...buying in stocks...drop in commodities ..this is how its worked during all of these CB systemic interventions since 2007 ...I can't say before ....but definitely 100% time since ... as to why ..how long u got ! and its complex ..I've tried to go over this many times ..but doesn't really matter why in terms of our job :-)
The main issue is it produce MARKET DISTORTIONs through lack of 'natural price discovery' - bonds u now see correcting that when QE was removed ( a form of this ...CB has these others tool like LQ for immediate support, QE was the long term support version ).
It also means we can't tell how much 'real buying or selling' is going on - that's what I mean by 'simulaton' or 'price fixing' - LQ or QE both 'almost instantly move price' a certain amount artificially '(not throughly price discovery of buyers/sellers) .... I used to say, imagine a bunch of people haggling over price of house in your street ..then comes a buyer with Trillions of $ and who says 'ill pay 200K for that 100K house ' ....that is basically what happens, the 'asset value is instantly changed/distorted' ( to be fair in QE it takes months, with LQ is take minutes ) ..that's the diff'.
I can try to 'guess' based off now many historical examples ...both for LQ and QE ..and worked pretty well but though here at moment it takes a bit of time.
LET me SUM all this UP - Its freakin' hard to 'call/predict' the. market here ...had 3 month of easy when CB off the tape ..this is how it goes at moment ... but I still try ..because that's how u can learn something new ... my 'best guess' is still
- wave 5 'ish all over the place in end of 2023 ..then shit hits the fan in new year.
FYI - COMP/Q finally getting some imbalance buy spikes - taken a while, SPX already as said has few ... hasn't mattered YET but definitely accumulating now ...
If Comp takes out AM lows, and drops under 14000 I think we have the first 'change' and likely a shorter LAG than usual ...more normal is it holds and we grind up longer.
KEY SUPPORT TNX 43 ...but as said, this is distorted due the CB LQ.. we need to remove that at some point..usually take a few weeks to 2 month ...to get 'real price' ..so this is hard part..but I'd still expect 43 to hold if its 4 ... below that odds increases 5 completed with the CB basically ending QT and doing short term QE via LQ ...likely stop gap though..its always temporary.
for almost identical drop fractals and model signals to current drop.
NOW if this is 'for real' reversal ..we accelerate down next few sessions below 43.5 ..otherwise, these are the highest odds '4' type setups only 1 Degree smaller this time overall
DOLLAR - in both of those was also similar to now - and again dollar drop here looks 1 degree less but same fractal.
Its insane it comes to this . essentially a computer simulation of patterns across all markets..but thart's basically what it constantly shows..no other possibly exlplaination for these patterns ... humans don't cause this ...we now just get brief period when 'natural patterns' occur as recently and its piece of cake to model and call every move as I did ...shame ..but have to deal with our simulated realty ! ..this is now firmly extended to matrix output and all 'data' ..all just maniplations/agenda/narratives
Example I have access to hard data today on house prices in Arizona - its' SHOCKING ..and I know it's correct but I can't say too much as not my data or allowed to say.... but from my job ..its so far from 'public data' its just a joke ..and same with 'inflation' and jobs and 'economy' and medical and well everything ..but once cat was out the bag the 99.9% of people can't challenge data ...we would end up here in Fake reality - as I predicted bTW 30 years ago and ranted about ever since..was I right or was I right ? yep, I was right...as its simple logic - and 99% STILL don't know it!
The BIG QUESTION - how long can this charade be kept going? ..a long time it for sure..but I have to think we at least see 'some reality' seep into stocks ..it has already, with all the LQ we should be at ATH ...but not.
OTHER IS - is this all 'just politics' or is there a GRAND PLAN ... I know there is, and I know the end game and goals..but the shorter term is so hard to predict now given how extreme the lengths are to keep this charade afloat .... it's going to be. FASCINATING ... post Nov 2024 I'm certain they end the game for a while at least.
And not to get into the complexity of my attempt it model all this BUT
- I'd like to say I can just wait for LQ to RTM or RTE ( it always has in past except 2009)
- but its not that simple due to the LAG as i've said and effect on shorts and market sentiments ..etc the 'shockwave and EMP' effects
- so its always more of a 'judgement' than a 'model' for these events.
I said in 2021 ..I fear we will see more and more int his period - 2 this year! is very rare ..as I feel CB are trying to TIME everything to some plan ...I've said this for long time ...and its increasingly obvious I am correct... ALAS I don't know what that timing/plan is ..its guessing ... Id' say ..they want the worst POST NOv 2024? ... or plan to let it collapse in 2024 giving no time to react .. other events will give us clues here ... I wish TA '/,models could but they can't due to out environemtn of system instability
FYI collected TWO more Imbalance SPIKES today ..were' accumulating alot now ...i'd say usually this would be enough said to top us out ..but this is FAR from normal .as in 4-5 sigma! so its fascinating to see how it plays out in such extremes ....maybe I can learn/add something in model for future but as said n ever been able to in past ... hope springs eternal :-)
If today gap is ever closed ..it is high odds a swing reversal down at minimum ..shd be off to infinite upside wave 3 on back of everything or something is 'wrong' big time.
- CB historic upward simulation or LQ Shockwave /EMP whatever u want to call it
- Matrix utopia news narrative (I talked about it yesterday)
- emotional market jumping on Matrix every fake word
Against this - reality going over a cliff ..and market technically falling apart and close to major resistance ( summer highs)
As I said, I have no idea when these CB events occur ... I watch and try to see if things can be modeled ...no idea yet ... grab the popcorn though it will be interesting! ..bonds/dollar is still place to look for me.
Note as I said how the Matrix provided the fake narritive ( as I said learned from Covid) - the CPI LOL .. fake data every day ... totally detached from reality ..but it worked during massive LQ injections and on ST ...for which clearly there is plan afoot since that LQ EMP.
My guess is a final CB controlled blow off to clear the decks...then eventually an equally fast down move leaving everyone high and dry again ...rinse repeat ..no idea how high, they control all of this as shown yet again right here.
CB havne't drained ANY LQ since that injection LMFAO! .. they seem intent on us breaking everything here ... its as usual impossible as I've said to predict ..but this would suggest we are going vertically to new ATH ..well, we will ..unless they drain ..no sign of it yet.
I'm really busy this AM ..so not sure on posts todays ..but I shd get some 'answers' today/tomorrow on near term patterns ...hoping anyway! the setup shd be a big give away reaction right here now.
HEADS UP - the close saw another BIG IMBALANCE BUY SpiKE , these accumulate selling pressure eventually to reversals ..its hard to say how much is needed, charts speak the best but I can't post currently..see recently posted charts for idea . this is on SPX not the comp...but it definitely was significant .... I haven't ever studied but I am going to guess that coming last hours is extra significant ... I cd be wrong .... but this is first really significant warning sign on current swing up ... we shall see .. I suspect we still need more ( I said this AM)...but odds of a downward swing reversal just increased on my imbalance model at least ..nothing else will work yet to to the LQ EMP effect on going ..likely need another week for that to subside or more.
I Ran a BACKTEST - In the last 12 months, the only time a spike of this size did NOT LEads to Swing topping action was June 12th .... which was during sort of 3rd wave up of that swing up - there is 8 Data point ( examples) so 7 of 8 in 12 month led to swing topping out ...it wasn't necessarily the exact price/time of top but close.... when I can post chart I will and mark it up.
so TUE now takes on more importance as 'next step ' of read.
DATA - I don't believe ANY oF IT ...I'm seeing Orwellian ^ N outright lies on it all the time now..its pointless to use any public domain 'data' ... I can see from my real world data that this is 100% true alas .. 'they' have seen how effective outright lies using 'data' was with COVID and expanded to all so called 'economic data' ...this is what we must deal with now.
fyi one of many similar I've being seeing 'all of a sudden' - what a crazy coincidence of timing eh? ..it would be one thing if it was just someones idiotic 'opinion' ..but I'm certain this is a narrative play as too stupid and too many on Matrix all of sudden.
FYI My new desktop will be arriving wed or thur so 'they' say.. if it does..it will take me 2-3 days to setup my trading platform and video making setup etc ... so if goes to plan I can make video update next weekend ! I could try on my laptop but it's really. painful ..so I'll just wait.
Got a minute - basically, the waves are very clear and there's only a few 'legal' possibilities assuming waves continue to be legit as for months ...
- so either we break up in a 3rd massive Impulse type wave this week OR
- we top out
Today into tomorrow will be huge tell ...as no excuse to hold back ..so I'm looking to see if we do the 'threats of upside ' move but end up churning or even drop back ...
the 5 Day held back key Real $ data which makes it next to useless now ..like all key data is removed from us ..suggests we have flipped and shorts have all covered ..but I can't see how far the other way we've gone for another 5+ days ...so that's why lagged data is useless for real time calls - I can only use my propriatarty signals ..which is exactly why I have them, can't be easily messed with ! ..they suggest we have more 'work to do' on sucking in retail here.
Bonds - like wise like clues ..but I'm strongly leaning still in '4' of final 5th ... model points this way with likely more time/work to do there.
Last 2 hours are different - running up wave ...this looks to me like 'breathless buying' due to FOMO ...and assuming its not insiders ..it will be close to another top here.
LOL - they are getting so worried about a Credit CRUNCH ..pretneding yesterdays low LQ Bond auction was due to some attack? WTF seriously ... this is getting silly ..they won't be able to duct take this into Nov 24 ...so surely wd be better to lets things fall apart early 2024 then try to ramp it back by Nov. .. ?
AND EVEN IF this were true ..which I'm sure its not ..it would ADVERSIZE a Way for Foreign enemies to CRIPPLE the US ...
The REAL reason is simple
- without constant QE ...markets are adjusting to 'fair market value' - were about there now.
- BUT also China-Russia et al finally seem reading to collapse our house of cards ...so removing thier LQ ..the bond market is becoming ILLIQUID ... and its of course a VICIOUS CYCLE ..since 'other buyers' don't want to buy in an illiquid strong trending markets against them no matter 2 years of endless 'buy' calls from the Matrix .... it will need an OBVIOUS TREND CHANGE and Liquidity returning ... how will that happens? only way is to end QT and NEW QE ..and stock market right now has priced that in ...but they will be WRONG..at least for now. and also on the SCALE of it when it does come ..likely end of 2024.
Tough Call ST - but Comp still in minor 5 up ..lielly done i..ii.iii.now iv(* actually probably still iii it's extending) then v up today.then shd start to weaken .... Dow weakest ..and spx in middle as mix .. just what I see and today shd be strongest up day for while into next week being choppier grind sideways in range as retail pile in ( and believe me they are!)
OK THAT now looks like iii done(* in (5) of iii..) .then.in iv(next hour or so) ... so given that...probably we will complete v before the close and get a drop ..so maybe less of trend up day and more of a potential reversal from there ..bve interesting to see here
BTm line - today shd be trend up day's on comp ...but turn choppy this afternoon and chance of selling late. dow spx bit weaker as I went over ...its important to try to see these pattern and if they play out to start to get read 'post shockwave'.
AS or MORE important is my monitoring the DATA and model in response for confirming...and also TNX /DOLLAR ..they are might tricky right here...need to see next week to get better read on them which will help massively.
ALSO _ we got a ST imbalance BUY near close yesterday iu.e. there was some ST panic to the selling ... that alwats 100% gets the old 'gap up Revere grinder' like today in this environment - check ... when I next update the imbalance signals u will see it ..BUT it wasn't a signal on bigger scale ...so short term effect only ...I think we will need 1 or 2 more big imbalance spikes of 'chase the breakout' type next week to get a swing high ..and that fits with prior LQ Shockwaves ...... UNLESS this as said if going to get Smart money Xmas rally sponsorship ..and not LQ Drain to even RTM ... tbd
Assuming we don't get another historic intevention - and I have to always give that disclaimer...last week shd show u why
- then ST Model will the first to start of 'normalize' and work again ..once I see that I will know I can begin to trust signals again after the shockwave/EMP ....and gradually up the time-frames to call them.
Another gap up LMFAO - anyone counting!! 'totally normal right' - not proof of CB ALGO LQ :-)
USD I took good look last night - its tricky ..but..I do believe we have a pattern that will ultimately lead to a massive surge UP in DOLLAR ... timing is tricky
TNX - bonds also getting lots GAPS ..and back and forth ..but again ..this looks on the model leaning to 4th wave of 5 ..and not quite done as I've said...but its hard again to time it ..will know once it breaks either way though.
REAL$ data - CONFIRMED the LAG effect...of rough 5 days being withheld OR REPORTED ..I can't say buts it 100% FACT now .... I doubly checked last night again last year data...that is really obnoxious and same as i've seen over years to other key data like put/calls ..I won't go over it ll ..but anything 'too helpful and obvios' is removed or messed with. But now I just adjust for lag but removes its 'real time' use.
I posted a 'lifecycle of CB LQ Injections' ( short term QE if u like) and said u either get 'exhaustion' in the Lag/normalization phase or continue to surge .....this is looking like exhaustion unless it takes off hard tue or wed ...the data is accumulating to exhaustion ..
^THIS is our as I went over FIRST DATa PONT regarding the 'natural market' versus the 'forced move' summation ... its VERY IMPORTANT .... I am leaning, and its early..and I cd be wrong if we do NOT take off tue or wed...that we infact seeing another - distribution setup rather than accumulation setup by smart money ...this is the major determinant of how this plays out over the IT longer timeframe.
BOnds- back filling and held 45.5 ... so longer pattern and within the expected setup I went over.
Dollar - also ... sterling stronger bounce.
There is not much I can add until more data comes in this week and lets me start making a call on this.
FRACTAL setups is as CRYSTAL CLEAR to me as its ever going to get on literally ALL timeframes here ,...In terms of the broad market (and ignoring indexes specifics)
- VERY HIGH ODDS the 'market' is going to make its final 5th of 5th of 5th Cycle, PRimary, secular and Super cycle tOP in the NEXT 2-4 WEEKS!
Personally, I find this VERY EXCITING !!!!!!
- I am fascinated to see how everything will line up...play out.
And whilst I know 'things can vary- alt patterns' ..it would materially matter UNLESS the CB has lost it mind or hiding something so bad it delays it .with more LQ-Insta QE ...but I doubt it.
More on this during next month though I've covered it for LOOOONNGGGG TIMe ...andhere we are !!!!!
TNX key to watch here now - on model, key is 45.5 above . we will either drop again back
to test key 43 support next week ...OR break above that then model put very high odds of a swing up ..and then we'll see 'what is what' in term of setups/pattern I've gone over ...ANd if it break the current CB induced euphoria wave.
DOllar dropping back today..but I also believe its starting to bottom as I went over..maybe need to go over pattern there more.
Stocks - meh..but I said, I favor were in end of 3'ish ..into 4 ...but its tough to be sure due to being in LQ normalization phase ( see previous post ) ...I will only be able to be Sure in highsight once ST model normalizes... next week will be much better tell.
ANCEDOTAL - but to bare in mind going into 2024 ... I know a lot of people who ..'who know people' etc ..with knowledge to get a read on
a. the REAL economy - not the Matrix fake one - I'd said a fair amount on that ..I will add when times allows... we are definitely in CB LQ 'pause' here ..but retail sector is first to be going over a cliff early 2024...I'll make that call now very confidently ...
b. It seems the CB has been coerced or other into getting Biden re-elected. They are supposed to be neutral in 12 month into election ..but this current LQ injection is blatant support of markets/economy to help Democrats ... it should be enough to get them called to account ..but I doubt it ...
c. I thought there is no way to hold the real economy collapse and start of market collapse in 2024 ..but I am wrong if the CB don't take this LQ (short term QE effectively) back ..no sign of it so far ....
Now on separate issue I covered extensively from before most even knew about it, been 100% right ..and now we are beginning to see real world effects i.e. the COVID bio-weapon courtesy of Fauci et al ...and the bio-weapon shots ( maybe 0.5% of them in certain batches according to my data/calc but though to be accurate due to suppression of science)
- its very clear from our friend/family/work circles that so far
a. The effects are 'not too bad' compared to worst case ..which is what I predicted, that this would be a slow moving attempt at moving 'all cause mortality curve to left' by 2030.
b. That certain effects are VERY clear - I'll tell you below so you can know, and hopefully look for solutions and help people you care about
1 - Widespread SHINGLES and EYE issue - my one long time friend who I tried very hard to help, wouldn't listen, got eye problem immediately from shots - they are now BLIND in one eye, they also have developed spinal issues so bad they can no longer hike ..progression.
My son's girlfriend has developed eye disturbances - her optician actually told her its known side effect of the shots ...so slow but gradual 'admission' coming. I hear from literally everyone about 'so and so has shingles or weird nerve issues'.
2. Drop in mental capacity - which I've discussed at length this was known from all study of mRNA on animals that induces prions .... this will be slow ..but it will eventually be planned disaster ...everyone I speak to has noticed the change in everyone ...most unaware of the 'why' ..they just say 'everyone is so angry and unstable' ..and I see clearly the drop in mental acuity...its beyond any doubt .. this is frightening longer term ...and I believe explains some of the drop in workforce and I hear ALOT - 'we cannot get or keep workers' .turn over rates are insane ...this is whole topic. and I think will be crises 2024+.
I have a lot more to say - but those two key points ... the workforce is 'shrinking' and also 'losing productive ability' - look for 'AI' to be floated as solution ...I think we are 4-5 years away from that...but they will need to 'create the crises' to then 'float the solution' ..its coming ..no doubt about it on my end ..they way they trotted out AI out of the blue yet its been available for a decade.
Starting to see more patterns here..need to see more of it ..but rhymes are getting strong to 'road maps' i've gone over...none exactly fit ..but that never happens.
ALSO - 1st ST model 'sell' signal here since LQ went into next phase ( LAG-Normalizing) ...so we'll see if it generates any selling today and or Fri ... or still ignored..
ALSO I said likely in 'iv' last night ..I wd say givne todays grind up ..its
- now in 5 of iii ..and looks like ending diagonal forming ..in which case more grindf into the close..and then odds of drop increase sometime Fri ..I guess its half session .so maybe monday... THAT wd then be 'iv' ..but materally doesn' matter ....just matters for me to see if we are yet starting to normalze in the LQ phase.
- when we get these rare 'mega vetical trajectories' and a certain dynamic pattern I'd have to show I can't put in words easily ..but have now then
- In cases where the market is 'strong' we will continue up for next 1-2 weeks to well above current prices
- but if we pause or pullback ...its a major sign that eventually we will fail without moving much higher..though..it can take a lot of tiME to play out ...
I think ^this is key pattern to watch for here .as we move into next 2 weeks ...and signals setups for pullback ..if they are 'overriden' and we power up ..then 'I am wrong' re: wave 5 ..and the CB LQ ploy has overpowered that for now. ..I think that is lower odds...than the alt - so I look for a pullback sometime next week rather than powering further up.
- Pattern is for NOVember to see BUYING of BONDs..(drop TNX) that then turns to some selling in December ..I believe this is what we are seeing again this year.
If I had to guess ..we are down A down of 4th of final 5th up ...A maybe not be done a need drop to 43 ( easy to use TNX) ... but I am now looking for a B wave UP ...now or by 1stweek Dec....likely compex...then C down into end of Dec/beg Jan ..then final 5 of 5 to 50-55 area...or OVERSHOOT spike depending on many thing tbd
ALT - is this is 1 down still of larger A and complete up cycle for now...similar to say CRB ..Ii still have to put it lower odds for n ow until patterns are broken/change - no sign of it YET.
Related ..dollar did spike up again today .as expcted..I don[t think it's made that correction low... but it will depend on whether LQ by CB's is going to stay high, RTM or RTE ...tbd
TNX /TLT look like they are going to bounce hard here soon ...UNLESS we get a surprise gap down through 43 on TNX ... if any bounce gets going here, I think it will be sustained/larger than we've seen for few weeks.
So ..I guess I could do a 'lifeycle' for the FORCED MOVED ..into NATURAL MOVE ..I'll do it next video's but in short
Phase 1 - LQ shockwave/EMP
- FORCED MOVE begins based on 4 sigma signal I showed
- price goes vertically up ..mostly gaps
- forget any other signals/TA/price setups ..doesn't matter..LQ in this phase=vertical price ( or REPRICE as I call it)
- UNTIL - LQ Peak signal I posted last night
Phase 2- Entering today ..LQ has peaked ( doesn't mean it drops )
- Now we get LAG as retail and other try to 'buy the shockwave'
- We begin to see 'system normalize' so model/signals/TA 'begin' to work ..starting at smallest timeframe ..my ST model has not yet normalized, usually take 1-3 days here..then for Swing a few weeks
- We can begin to Guage NATURAL MARKET POSITON by comparing to previous forced periods... i.e Summations of Natural + forced move here.
- Phase ends when Swing signals normalize..I'll guess sometime end of NEXT week
Phase 3- back to natural markets
Unknowns - cause/effect
- Does LQ 'stay high' OR is to MEAN REVERTED OR EXTREME REVERTED (see video but I shd explain this more on LQ 101 primer sometime )
- If LQ stays high...we will get an exhaustion type swing up
- LQ Mean reverts - will get the most 'natural move' whatever natural market is meant to do
- LQ Extreme reverts - we will get bunch of gaps down ..mirror down move as I showed on chart in 2022 example.
Sat - nov 18 - on My new computer now ..mostly setups just can't acces my old drives yet ...and need to setup video and microphone ..and recoding software..if I get it up this weekend I will do a video..WAY too much to cover now alas.
* OK didn't take long - I have setup so I can make some sort of video this weekend ..might be not so good sound/video ..but better than nought!
Hey, what happened to the November thread Mark! I forget ..deal with it :-) ...will try to remember for Dec..this one hasn't got too slow yet anyway.
Yep - grinders'ville
I believe. though TNX not breaking down is potentially sign of of confirming the pattern I mentioned ..too early to be sure , but a 'sign' is all one has in CB shockwave/EMP periods.
Not much else to add - the 5 day delay on Real$ data remains ...I shd see by mon-tue what happened from the last big gap up period ..I think I guess, I could be wrong
Got my new computer mostly setup ...but not for videoing yet..hopefully I can this weekend.
- this will end up similar to Oct-Dec 2021 ..that Oct low was made easier, so just shift current move back 3-4 weeks to 2021 comparison - it then had similar vertical moon shot ( that wasn't LQ driven unlike this one).
My work computer is crap for charts but here' shows this until I get mine running-
The 'election' next year is the most important is ALL AMERICAN HISTORY ..I will discuss this at some point ... if we stay the current course ..the EVENT/RESET will be earlier 2026-2030 then later 2030-2035
2024 is going to ANSWER ALOT of QUESTION I have - will there even be an election ? who will be 'allowed' to run ( if u understand my meaning) etc ..
- the PTB are GOING to have to SHOW tHEIR HAND in 2024 I believe
- I need to some research/analysis because I see something important ..
- I'm going to look at the CRB-DOLLAR-GOLD .. I've got conflict and complex stuff I see here.
Short term wont' matter.but into 2024 is definitely will ..but here's my quick thoughts..It may change
- GOLD is topping here...and going to get a major correction..year or more
- DOLLAR ..its complex..but most likely .at least one more big up move ..and probably, that is also then a top...but I need to look at this more..I cd be wrong there.
- CRB - oh boy! .and this one is a 'um, we need to talk' ..I had not noticed that CRB did not drop ..with last big dollar run ... that TROubLE and more confirmation of reflation secular k-spring ...I think...we will get a bigger correction on CRB when dollar runs up...but then ..if dollar tops ..CRB will hold or take off again..
This matters - because this also feeds into bonds ..and agrees with my view bonds will have a strong floor this time when they finally top here... due to CRB/reflation
- basically..what I'm seeing here is another BOX ..its sort of the same box but extended ..
- if Dollar drops ..CRB rises and bonds stay high ..and kills economy OR
- if dollar rises ..LQ drains ..and kills assets
we have been oscillating up/down and nothing resolving here ..but it will eventually..work to do here ..
- the drop is both impulsive and corrective ..both will matter let me explain
- the drop is CORRECTIVE at the degree of correcting the big move up last few months
-...this is clear and I will when I get charts up on new computer go over this one clearly .its KEY
- its also 'impulsive' 'ish ..but not 'impulsive' as ewavers use it ..its just is showing 'emotion' if u like ... and its completely not humans, its 100% correlated tick for tick to bonds and stocks as its all SYSTEMIC ALGO driven ..that is 100% clear also.
So 'eventiually' dollar will form a low ... and then high odds get a big leg up - C or 3 up tbd ..UNLESS CB as said, keep creating LQ which i've just gone over,, i'ver never seen ..but its not impossible let keep that in mind and not box ourselves in with beaufitful theories ..they have just demonstrated here how 'insane/desperate/evil plan' they are.
somehow - all this is going to play out/line up with Bonds-stocks-dollar and that is FANTASTIC for me ..and its much easier to get read off 3 things than 1 ..and bonds especially have been easier to read.( tough right now ..but that is LQ EMP effect - temporary I hope)
- I need to confirm data because I'm now VERY SUSPICIOUS of ALL DATA with so much manipulations of it ...BUT
- the imbalance data is fairly untouchable...but often needs to wait as real time is changing.
With those disclaimers ..it looks to me we are seeing MASSIVE CHASE-A_THON by RETAIL RIGHT here since the CPI 'mother of all gaps on top of mother of all gap-a-thons ' ..
If so, I look for use to follow the A-typical. pattern ... and suck in every last retail $ here..then reverse down hard to close at least some of the gaps below.
In more general tape read/thoughts/feel -
- this move up is 'pure emotion' - gaps gap gaps .'news' news news - rarely in my experience since 1997/8 is this 'foundational' i.e. the solid foundation for a new bull up leg..it IS typical of final legs up though ... the rare exceptions I can think of was 1999 though...there, the bull strike never broke as it already has here ... so I can't really think of an example of failure/then re-gaining bull traction like this ... so as I've said my view is
- UNLESS the CB intends to keep pumping LQ ... this will eventually. ( hard part ) FAIL over again ..and when it does, it will be symmetrical to the up move .
Can/Will the CB keep pumping LQ because 'we have to save systemic from collapse?' - I'll think on it ... short term obviously yes ... but we've never seen them
- do it longer at THIS STAGE ..this is very similar to 2007 as said, and then eventually they gave up ..planned? ...I'd say so.
Anything is possible I guess... I think were in one of the toughest to 'predict' period on stocks in history right here...but RISK is EASY to measure and is now surging back up to risk on long side right here versus downside.
DATA CONFIRMED - it's not FATAL YET ..but its trending that way.....
This is wave '5' final up wave as iv'e been tracking long time 4..then 5...and I said likely trunction on DOW .maybe spx ..minor new high comp .. but no structure due to the speed driven by CB LQ EMP ...so its hard to judge off pric e..so these signal might help ..
- its a question if we just keep grind up now ..accumulation ..into major top again or
- retrace ..then rinse repeat
..I have no view on this yet.
I know what I eventually expect to see across the models ..we don't have it yet..so I expect some slow down, long process to complete more than fast up down to complete .5...but its only a guess if CB reverse the LQ it could happen.
WED Nov 15 - To summarize: Proof of CB 'simulation' yet most refuse to see it
For ten+ years I've shown the proof
- the LQ signals ( I posted again start of this one)
- to watch for endless gaps up ..er, how many LOL ..must over over TEN now on Q's with NO CLOSURES .
- to watch for 'insane' price moves defying all TA and prediction ? forget it!
..I've shown this literally EVERY TIME as per that chart of LQ signals ...yet, the Matrix manages to run the narrative that its a free market LOL ... it's amazing how few people can see the clear and obvious truth no matter how much evidence you show if its counter to the Matrix narrative.. sound familiar ? :-)
HEADS UP - my judgement ..and as I've been saying since the CB intervened (sigh, yet again) ..and Always say ..I have no model for these periods ..so its based on experience
- I believe we are NOW seeing a HISTORIC FLIP to SPECULATIVE CALLS ...
..this may or may not mean anything short term ..but It will longer term if/when the CB stop pushing the markets up ( its as said not directed at stocks, its side effects of them provided liquidity to Bond and Credit markets ..as most cases ...the system is all linked..hence if u care to look ..the correlative moves in USD, and bonds ...are stronger than ever ..1+1=2 even if most don't want to see it.
This is likely some sort of 4th'ish wave today pullback ..then grind/move up in the LAG move in 5th ASSUMING LQ doesn't turn back up ..that is A-Typical MO ... and all I try to do in these cases is measure our path against all previous examples ..
So watch LQ - what's it doing? up up up! until THIS AM ...it MAY be starting or have reversed this AM .. I c an't 'predict' but I will be able to tell in a bit ...then 'how much of a LAG ' to price ..varies every time as also shown ..but consistent ...and a TELL as well.
I think it will be obvious here if/when the LQ is pulled and LAG ( chasers exhaust)
First signs of imbalance building here ...often need a few more spikes and grind ..but this suggests we are fairly 'normal' for 4-5 Sigma Events LOL ... i.e. long sideways upward grinders with retail piling in a top of it ... then a pullback coming..often as said take long time.
The EASY part of the move off wave 5 completion is OVER -
- more upside will have to be EARNED here now...unless CB decide another historical intervention is necessary ..they might given we are going over a cliff - two in 5 month is a very bad sign!!! duh!
- cOst will either be Retail having to max themselves long again and or
- smart money buying ...I can't rule that out if they see a 'xmas rally play' ..but need to see proof ...they could just as well distribute into retail yet again as happened 3 month ago at top.
HEADS UP - I think this is, or part of the answer to the 4-5 Sigma LQ Systemic Shockwave EMP attempt to prevent ceasing jump of liquidity ..makes sense ..so stocks effect was just side effect not the goal.
*Also seeing the wacky banking issues are accelerating ..we are heading for a total failure of the banks in 2024/5 ..with most banks being taken over by a few big CB proxies like BofA ... next step toward Global CB of course ...its coming, don't be fooled ..they can hide reality and fake it like currently for weeks/month hell even a year ...but just like every other time not forever ...though with election 2024 they will try of course.
IT appears more and more likely a Liquidity crises is emerging, hence last weeks Intervention ...it remains to be seen if that helps, or accelerates the problem - it can go either way, tbd
WOW - we just got a near Record short term imbalance spike ...that means short term at least, odds favor a bigger pullback ... it is less meaningful on swing+ timaframe but can be significant there also ..especially if next bounce seem another one of these.
Same deal - use 4360 then 4350 as key pivots for the Shockwave ... if /when we get below those we enter the 'next phase'. end of current grind and likely either
- wide range grind for period of time OR
- a larger drop and then ?? = we shall see I can't predict
- pretty much as expected in last couple days analysis
- DOllar and TNX is the place to focus right now ..dollar is looking 'bottomy' (is that a word!? :-) ) ..TNX dropping this AM is surprise to me ..suggest we have a longer '4' ( assuming its 4 obviously and not THE reversal ...I still put that much lower odds currently) ...I would also say keep another eye on CRB ...I'll talk about that on next video ..probably weekend ..will have more information then as well.
.. there are some very clear Swing pattern on TNX I've used last 2 years...so I will be looking at that here to get a strong view next view days.
Market - possibly 5 up , possible 4 of 5. now ...but LQ driven is ALWAYS impulsive ...but does NOT mean AFTER the LQ injection normal rules are followed as I've gone over
- essential 'impulsive' in modern markets = high LQ and or higher emotion. (more humans relative to ALGO's ) .
- We DID follow WAVES rules perfectly as I posted for 3 month before the latest ALGO LQ injection ...it will likely take a month or so for us to resume 'normality' after this shockwave ...that is my experience .
ALSO FYI - the REAL$ Retail data I most rely on ..just flipped today ..that is roughly 5 day LAG ..lets say 3 days because maybe it took 2 days for retail to flip ... but this is fairly consist pattern around LQ Shockwave/flamethrower/button presses ...that data is lagged ... I've talked about it for a decade ! .... Why is it lagged... dunno' the most Occam Razor's is eitehr
- there is system of information flow control that is in place to work against outsiders ( as opposed to insiders) OR
- there is a natural reason that I don't know ...that is Vendor related ...stockcharts in this case
it's probably just vendor data issues...whatever..I just know to wait for 5 days and adjust backward 2-3 days to get 'real read here' which I won't get until another 4-5 days given the lag. This conveniently makes anyone not aware totally 100% wrong on reading it
- FYI tHis occurred for entire COVID DROP! ... it was ridiculous ..and seeing it again now...it NEVER happens in 'normal markets' ...so whilst I want to believe the latter, a strict follower of Occam's razor would believe the former .. maybe its a mix of the two, most things are 'grey' not black and white in reality.
btw line - its 'bloody annoying' but I know enough to get around it ..but it also means its useless for a read right now.
- an LQ EMP ! ...because all information of value is 'blinded' ..like EMP taking out electronic.
Hey, its almost as if there is goal to totally confuse/blind retail at certain moments LOL ..so we outsiders have to fumble around in the dark without TA working, without usual data, without anything except those with 'blind faith' or 'guessing' ... I don't believe its coincidence if you look at historical charts I posted ..that of the however many data points since 2006 -
- ALMOSt ALL occurred either at major lows or tops ...just when 'insiders' ( in this case we can guess the CB or proxies if you want to get cute about it) ..want to be on the bus, and retail kept off it.
IT is what it is - and the most important lesson is to understand the nature of modern markets - they are 'natural' then 'simulated' like this ..its impossible to know exactly when those flips of 'mode' will occur ... and once it does there is a period like now of LQ EMP blindness ..where u can either
- be a gambler of jumping on the LQ shockwave ..look at historical charts to see your win/loss and drawdowns
TO BE CLEAR Today is likely first 'minor read' of setup -
- do we get '4th wave' shallow pullback setting up likely another 2-3 days upward grinders to complete the LQ Shockwave ( my new term for button press..I think it describes it better!)
- OR do we start a down wave reaction now ..much less likely historically.
LQ Shockwave has peaked as I said ..now were in the LAG ZONE ..THEN we see what type of reaction wave we get on LQ ..as I went over on historical posted charts over the weekend.
On COMP - we've had something like SEVEN GAPS up on this run ..some small ..but A-Typical of CB LQ Injections as I said now and many many times ...classic signature.
- stocks grinding(dow, spx many indexes ..Comp still surging) typical LAG Mode I've discussed ..no tell there yet
- TNX- today is key ...if the retracement of yesterday's bounce on TNX turns back up ..bonds are in trouble in my view ...and 4 high odds done...wd need to fail here today I believe to see extended 4
- USD - maybe start of also turn ..I don't think its 4...probably 2 or B type ..maybe have longer I haven't had time to look close enough
TO BE CLEAR - what I need to see ..other than what I've gone over
- How much 'real buying' is there ...? as most of what we saw was LQ IGNITED Short covering
- what we need to see now is ..does institutional money buy here..or on pullbacks? if not, eventually ..and can take a while...this will collapse again.
A useful rule here (not perfect, nothing is) - is 1st hour and last hour ...1st hour tends to be retail ( not the gap, but after the open) ...then last hour tends to be institutional (though, not when market isn't making. much of a move..ALGO's is what I'm interested in ..so its more complex than it used to be for indicators doing that calc)
FWIW My BEST GUESS here ... posted once already but disappeared! so lets try again
- disclaimer ..I can change my mind since this is not based on Model but just my view of 'everything'
- We grind sideways ish Up at current levels on Spx/Dow/Comp now for few sessions to a week or so
- Then we Drop ..a 'retracement' or something alot more if we get LQ RTE. see charts posted..no way to know on this yet...and it will be a 'guess' anyway
- Then we get ONE MORE UP SWING we can call xmas rally .. COMp provably makes new high look as I said door4 4=ABC done, now 5 up there ...but SPX likely doesn't ..more 1.2 .... though VERY SIMILAR on everything to 2007 to. me here...that got a 100% retracement back to highs....we shall see.
- Then WE get next let down to below 4100 toward 3900 ..and so forth likely into early 2024.
But one step at time. ..also need to track TNX ..shd make TOP in this period as ive gone over....this is tricky period right now on synching all this...especially the. CB deciding to get involved. AGAIN. .SIGH.
YeaH - Real GRINDER typical of what I've seen In past with these injections...
- I've said upfront there is no way to 'predict here'
- but I can compare to past and this is very similar to many
- I need to see a few more sessions but most likely ..we get many days of sideways 'ish now
...THEN I'd look for a gap down type move ..then 'well see'
Probably more and AS important is Bonds and Dollar ..and as said sentiment ...too early to be certain on that beyond the crazy flip I mentioned on TSP as I have noticed REAL$ data I use seems to LAG ....which is 'shouldn't' but its a bit mysterious ...as not consistent ..keeping an eye on that this week
Everyone around me has been sick for last couple weeks - and everywhere I go, is it acceptable to wear a Hazmat suit in Sam's club? ..just asking for a friend :-) ..hey, idiots still wearing masks in there so at least wear something that would work.
We also have endless 'controlled burns' - everyone so fed of up I actually complained to Govt ADEQ and got response and they seem to have stopped.. but as someone wearing mask noted 'I can still smell the smoke through my mask' - I sighed .. yes PM2.5 size smoke gets goes through the holes and is BIGGER than viruses ...doh duh! ( 2.5 *10-6 meters, most viruses are 100 to 1000 times SMALLER at NANO meters - boring real science versus mainstream $cience).
So not been feeling my best for last week - but so far surviving ... hopefully feel better as this week goes to catchup on market stuff.
We seem to me in a Bizarro world to me right now on everything. On pure 'feel'..the world feels the 'most fake' in my entire life experience right now .. maybe its just me ...but everything feels controlled, contrived ..fake ..like we are following a script more than I can ever recall ...hard part is figuring it out ... at least on shorter term timing like last week ...pretty insane ... longer term I think its predictable and inevitable.
I didn't have time to update this weekend alas - I will try tonight or any day this week ! ...weather is unually warm so spent the weekend outside doing biking/hiking etc ..and escaping the endless 'prescribed burns' in my area ..ugh ....
Really - as per chart I posted on CB Action - we need to see where there INJECTION ENDS ..tHEN See how market reacts .... THEN we need to see if LQ does the 'Reversion to Extreme' as is as shown highest probability and how price reacts then ..... TA is worthless during these events as I've shown for a decade.... it will resume normal service after all of this ! :-)
HEADS UP - this latest MASSIVE CB LQ injection appears to have PEAKED right here ....though, as said, often a big LAG to stocks .. USD and BONDS less so ...they are all strongly connected here because this is a SYSTEMIC INJECTION.
From what I can tell - we 'shd' not drop more than first gap below before more BTFD in is somewhat 'usual' LAG zone ... so that is our first big tell here.
I mean, its hard to say much after a 4-5 SIGMA LQ Injection to entire financial system LMFAO - I'm sure people are claiming all sort of reasons + signals etc but as usual they are dead wrong .. just like over the summer ....and my whole career ..most 'reasons' are b.s.
Most TA won't tell us 'what happens next' but I can use the historical backtest examples + some of the model looking at retail$ & sentiment ...
We don't have enough data points since 2007 where my tracking data begins to say' - typically this happens ( refers to charts I posted ).
So its always going to be a judgement call more than usual.
It more a case of 'seeing what happens' for a while ..then judging it from that ..if that makes sense .. i.e. sometime you can predict, other times like this market will tell us ..but as I've said many times ..these CB interventions are the hardest and ironically usually most important time/price points on IT and bigger degree ... just to make it fun!!
TNX likely put in that 4th wave low here ...important to see this now and one of key pieces..I need to take a deep dive on USD ..get a good read on that ..as we know ..those of us who's tracked this for long time .there is strong connection to CB LQ on USD ... stocks->LQ tends to LAG always effect ...and retail pile in chasing the effect and ignoring the cause - TSP poll saw - highest amount of bulls I have on recent record (over a year I believe, need to check
I managed to find the setting for 'new first' on all posts...so that is one good thing! :-)
Also I found out today - and I can't say details obviously ..that there is a call up of reserves in the European Theatre .. not good ..implies anticipation or concern of escalation.
HEADS UP - I think this is pretty nice way to show this ...I hope! ...its very simple and obvious as I said ..though it also shows the results are less predictable.
HERE is a way i've come up with to show u the CB ALGO 'button presses' - of 4 sigma + ..some are FIVE SIGMA+
NOTE - no more CB LQ UP signals until 2018 LOW!!!! 9 years gap ...crazy huh!?
* were some 'down LQ signals' - as said, or will say ..some are 'credit crunches' more than CB ALGO but I don't have easy way to adjust for that....but its fairly obvious, when u get very fast down moves ..its most often 'LQ drop' but not due to CB I don't believe.
Whatever this Five Gaps in Row up on comp off not much in term of TA ( like the summer ) IS - If I am right, it will be the final Swing up or I guess IT move up though it shd NOT be an IT move ..
-for many reason ..not least of which is I expect Insiders and ALGO's to use the trained monkeys to sell into there ..as they did with the summer one.
I guess they might wait until xmas ...tbd
( substack auto correct is worst I've ever seen , its killing me! please realize I've given up corecting its corrections .too many every posts ..its truly awful ..I will see if I can turn it off somewhere ...my actual writing is better without it!)
Can't find a way to turn it off ..Ugh ... gazillion settings ..but no one for this or I can't see it ..A - not - ing. (that was annoying ..but it 'corrected it' ..if u see what I mean! LOL)
- COMp MIGHT might make new highs or test or truncated here
- Dow and SPX will NOT .. I say that based on a lot of things historically, and also the act dow has 5 clear down ... now, it could 'retest' but I lean it wont'..but I do NOT see it will make new highs no matter how many LQ button presses CB pull out there bag of tricks ...this one is special because of setup they. used - being everyone looking for seasonal low, FED meeting 'euphoria' and some shorts building to give some fuel .. I don't think we'll see that repeated so while more LQ would be supportive ...it won't be as dramatic...and no guarantee's there will be more since I have no f'in clue in most cases why they do it ... if I did, I could predict it, and as I've said for 10 years or whartever I cannot alas...it true. 'insider trade' as we saw a lot of strange buying ahead of this that would normally lead to selling .so Hmmmmm!
So yeah - its 5 down ..1 ..2 ..or A ..B up now of large C down is my best 'guess' barring some crazy reason CB's need to override beyond all historically norms ..to be fair they did almost this in Autumn of 2007 ... this is getting eerily similar to my experience of that ... and it did retest the highs... and then 2nd one was crazy fast bounce like this falling short of highs.. I lean we are there on Dow at least.
It never BORING is it??!! ... I think volatility will pick up because this time is crazy important on very big super cycle picture ... I was just going over it again for myself recently ..it just so PERECt...but the difficulty is ...we could yet see one more big up cycle to finish ...but I do think we need a C down first into 2024 ... one step at time. ...but I have ZERO DOUBT that tthe move from 2009 to now is an Ending Diagonal 5th of supercycle from 1937 or whoever u want to start it ...its as clear as that TNX could has been .... I don't know an ED has ever occurred on this degree? I doubt it ... so it going to be 'crazy' once it completes...I don't think it has here yet ..leaning more to one more down-up cycle.
Just some thoughts here FWIW.
Near term - let the LQ pump end ...see what happens then .... I have a lot of road maps here to use ...to measure out progress so to speak.
ALOt of the ST parabolic is due to TNX and DOLLAR ... not the MCHVIE nature ..all are linked because of CB systemic action .... but since I believe both dollar and TNX will eventually move higher ...that's going to be a major limited on the upside into Nov-Dec xmas joy ....I will look at those counts and setup closely at weekend since both are much more predictable than stocks and less prone to CB b.s.
Another thought - and I put these down as jolts to talk about on video's when I get time with charts/TA
- this implies to me ..that I could be wrong about something ...I felt once we crack, we get deflation in assets ... but since we now in K-spring we won't get big drop just pullback.
that means to me - IF/when we get one more up cycle into say 2030 ..it will see a '3'rd wave up' in commodities, and yields ..
I never thought we would get hyper inflation..due to collapse of credit ..but this implies I am wrong..or it certainly is possible this ends then with a hyper inflationary move ..I guess due to world supply shortages due to all the wars and other reasons ... I need to think this through more..lots of time obviously.
But figuring this out is going to be massively important for one's personal situation and to take action to protect oneself ..if that is even possible!
Just to add to that thought - What is WEIRD about this is
- I cannot reconcile how given what I see in the economy, financial system and world events ..how in the world we get another upcycle say sometime 2024-6 into say 2028-2030 ( timing is almost impossible to say from here)
- but just like that button press, I guess it implies there is still enough magic left to pull it off ...
- Sort of like market action 1968 into 1974 eventual major bear..lots of retesting highs and minor bears in period before it ..
OR we are going to get a unique failure of the pattern ..or could say truncation on the current move counting as the final move? it doesn't look right to me ...but maybe we are going into a period so unique in many way s- controlled demolition of financial system + AI being brought out etc.
Still thinking on all this ..and seeing new information as it comes in. I am open minded and prepared to flip my views based on a clearer view on this. But on the current situation, I am very strongly of view some sort of C down ..or whatever is needed in 2024.
At least doing it through LQ I have a chance of figuring out stuff out one it ends .. price will just keep going parabolic as usual until the finger is off the LQ button .... unlike the summer one which was bizarre .... I certainly would love to know why this one was done ...I guess its similar to 2007 where they don't want anyone short once they are ready to collapse it in one big move ... they took it to Brink here, a few shorts/bear came in ( nowhere near normal lowS) and BOOM ... button press for the ages ... its an MO .... Rocket ship moves up, then slow grinds down.
4th gap up on comp! ... this looks like a reaction move to break of 200 sma ...its panic buying
essentially again.
I thought we would get more of a time testing key support ..but this is now forming an MO - that we get panic buying as all and every support... similar to the summer 'breakout' .. its not 'normal' that's for sure.
Well I could be wrong but this looks like kind of thing that has led to collapses once it rolls over ..it might take a while ..a sort of 5-8 session deal.
HEADS UP _ Volume anomaly on today (what a surprise ..not, thx CB!)
I will show at weekend when I get time - clear to show ...it too early to say if
its big problem ..but 'probably' ..which I know isn't helpful ..but we just don't get enough data points or similar context to know - I will be able to judge more over next 2-5 sessions.( data point of massive LQ injection by CB 4 days into. 'corrective bounce' ..during a potential start to bear market but also in possible positive seasonality in a FED pause on rates during a secular turn to reflation ..in biggest credit bubble in history ..good luck backtesting that ... unique data point! ..so I use other means ..bottom line is..it more about what happens once the excitement is over..)
LOL - is this deliberate idiocy? or just actual idiocy?
.. bonds directed the FED ..not other way around ..just last week they were selling that Bonds were doing FED's job for them ! ... Matrix b.s. at its finest
OH - FYI - Massive LQ pump here ..just noticed ..so todays gap up and run is CB sponsored for some reason ..haven't seen that for a long while ...probably 2 years I can remember ( summer one was by some other 'new creative method'( this is back to old faithful) .. your guess is as good as mine as to why but VERY CLEAR button press signal.
Oh is it THIS? I dont' watch that fake reality show 'The Uniparty blacklist no. 1' ...but just saw the headline for it today Biden impeachment decision coming ‘very soon’: House Speaker Johnson
Psst - here is a typical LQ signal ..normal range then 'giant button press' LOL ar far right..so big it goes off my screen !!! ..comical and usually effects last a while ..this one though just triggered credit signal warnings as I mentioned last night it might ..so its 'costing' ..I wonder why they did it? no idea as usual.
So 5 down to exact hit on key support must hold 4100 ...now strong impulsive ...without model support .. smells like another massive retail trap to me ..and usually that are very impressive like the summer ... so as said, might last quite a while...too early to say... too many gaps, too much FED effect etc .. no form to the move ..the comp one is a joke .
- ..so totally unreadable right here on short term but I have clear 5 down ..now reaction up move ..tbd beyond that.
I look at TSP its record is better for same retail investors - it was too bearish at last weeks close .. but I don't find these meaningful now except for swing type moves.
HMMM - Credit model showing some very extreme reading today...that's unusual ..
We are 'due' a 'breather' here on this bounce ..if we don't get one tomorrow ...and we gap up/run again ..then this move is VERY suspect as some kind of backsweep ... it had better keep going if that is the case - or raises RISK of a reversal to downside into total collapse ..this is very often how this occurs ...
If we get a pullback ..then maybe this is A up of a larger retracement of 5 down .it doesn't really fit the model signals ..but that's the most bullish setup I can see.
btm line - tomorrow is very important on bigger trend view
I would say this is VERY UNUSUAL market behavior here .the number of anomalies of 4-5 sigma on models is itself 5+ sigma ..or never seen ..USUALLY = another CB intervention? did some banks go down and here we go again? could be ..its as weird as summer stuff ... but too early to say .... i'll give it pass due to EOM and FED ...but I am keeping a very close eye thur/fri as I said ...thiat shd be the real tell ..... a bounce was 'normal' and its now getting 'unusual' ...but too early to call it out just yet.
Certainly the wave pattern on NQ is ludicrous ..typical of FED period ..as I said, tend to break ST patterns ... the clearest corrective of all time, breaks up into a massive impulse LOL .. but in my experience, that puts the move on very shaking groud once selling returns ..unless I guess its 'banned'
OT - Elon Musk: "Twitter Was Completely Controlled By The Far Left"
Um, yeah,,y'a think? LOL ...along with the entire MSM bar FOX and nearly every internet site (That show up on searches ... as the search engines are 'owned/controlled' .doh duh!)
The Real question Elon is - Who controls the Far Left? ... and who controls those who control them ...etc ..same goes for the 'far right' ..and who control ELON? ..because sure as hell the guy doesn't say what he actually knows, only what suits his BRAND.. LOL
Sun Tzu 'Divide and Conquer' - tried and tested best Military Strategy at work.
TNX - I think were in a wave 4 ..corrective ...that's bad news as then will go on to make higher high above 50 ..but it 'shd' be the final high in my long term target around 54-56 ..lets hope so eh? YIKES
ONE PROBLEM with the Imbalance signals - the data used and calculations have a bit of a LAG ...I often cannot be sure of the signals until a delay - for ST ..its about 15 minutes, for longer ones ..upto an hour ... don't ask me why, I don't know ...some sort of data errors I guess... but its annoying around FED because often get strong signals but I don't know usually until say 2.30 -3pm EST ..I will take a look then and see what we got.
BTFD resumes ... I am looking to see if ALGO selling comes back in last hour ...now that EOM and FED are out the way ... until we do its clear retail will BTFD^N ...as they have been through the whole drop!
So, now, thur-fr is the real tell ...as it usually is -
- I'd expect a pullback as said
- if we power up ..then I'm wrong and we're getting a 'surprise' swing up off back of EOM and FED slope of hope and inflows ... I believe it will fail like the last 2.
I will look at the EOD DATA later ..and see if this last 3 sessions change model outcomes /probabilties ... and If I have a strong view I will post video tonight .... probably be weekend ( I'd forgotten FED this week).
- I think a hard drop (* actually doesn't need to be hard ) and retest of 4100-4130 would give a chance of change of my IT model ..to 'buy' - though I doubt it..more likely another longer swing up THAN
- more bounce here...as we failed to get 'snyched low' for IT .... but there again, we seem to see so many strange things in 2023 ...but ...still this would be the strangest yet for major low.
Seeing ton of 'buy the FED' right before decision again - seen this about 4 times in 2023 and none worked out well ..I guess a 'stopped clock' could be right this time if the buying is insiders who know of a 'button press' coming ...but I do believe that's low odds ...so, after whatever games occur .... if normal rules apply there will be a RTE reaction down ...might be thur/fri depending.
TUE OCt 31st - HAPPY HALLOWEEN! Markets are less spooky and more trick than treat here I believe into the FED tomorrow.
We are getting the A- B- C type deal ..actually it looks more like ascending 'wedge' of abcde ..but who cares eh? FED post moves usually make mockery of ST patterns ..but we will see tomorrow.
Either way ST Model reached RTE as said - and now getting some key SELL signals...so odds increase we will at best churn here into the FED . and through the positive EOM period -
- which for me is a NEGATIVE SIGNAL .. I'll give it to Wed/thur to be just to be sure, in case the FED meeting being 1st of month is messing with that ..but, I highly doubt it given what I'm seeing on the imbalance signals.
TNX looks to be in 4th type wave ..so I'm looking for at least one more 'higher high' there...then. 'well see'...
THese are all very similar price structures here ... I'd expect a similar outcome ..but this week has too many influences (EOM/FED) to be as reliable.... by end of week I will have better read on position
note. currently, it didn't trigger.a swing buy, and is getting close to a sell ..need a bit more work ..but key is buy imbalance are NOT accumlating - there are no holy grails, but statistically this put low odds of significant low here.
Note. I didn't mark ALL the signals as chart would get too busy...just some to show examples.
for accumlation - distribution ...look at where a strong signals didn't lead to expected strong price move..the best example is the runup off the initial drop from recent top ..got strong 'buy' but failed over without a new high = strong distribution I mentioned at the time ...I saw it though on shorter term version which are much clearer for this.... this chart is more of detected ODDS of Swing or IT highs lows.
Kinda same deal but I configure them to bring out certain signals clearer, this one shows the major sells and buys clear - when I have time I'll review them all in model .there is quite a lot for all timeframes. Only one showing building buy is on daily, but its got a ways to I think given the hourly ones.
Getting a grinder - I find it fascinating to see why .. it clear ALGO's have stopped selling into the retail buying .. EOM ..the FED and natural 'fishing' from oversold condition ...
FYI - I've have made a couple of improvement to TWO Models recently
- the Imbalance - its difficult to show this signal because of the math, and tool im using..to really do it I will have to code it myself and I don't have time, plus I don't need to really.
But I've tried to improve them, and will post some of the newer signals ...which I think are clearer.. and in doing so, Ive learned a few more things on this...I actually think this is potentially the signal best signal I have ....more when I have time
- the ST model - added a lot here. ..but why Mark? you are not short term trading ..nope, but, and I admit I'm tempted to resume ST trading but recently win/loss on this ..but its because of the important in modern ALGO driven markets of answering one simple question
- is this move a reversal or corrective ?
- will the move 'pullback' if its reversal or just 'go'.
I believe the ST model is now better at answering this ...though only going forward will I be sure...it certainly been perfect last 3 months.
We shall see - this period is another great testing ground for the models ... nothing is ever going to be 100% ... I've looked back over May-July and I still see no data that would have improved any of the models ... it really was just an 'anomaly' ...and I've gone over my reasoning on that, and I think recent moves have proved my RTE on that correct.
Again, I assume because nukes didn't go off at weekend, that 'hope is restored' - I see ZERO CHANGE on ST model through to Swing/IT models - signals , setups , price patterns .... the beat goes on.
This increases our odds now of breaking 4100 ...had we had say a gap up and fast drop to restore fear ...then fast reversal up .... that wd have a shot ..but this looks like all the other 'oversold - RTE on ST bounces expected on my signals' ... time will tell.
Dollar got sharp drop to support it - but I don't believe it will last, looks like starting a 5th up, it's very clear on Sterling and Euro. ...alt is 1 ..2 ...which would be a lot worse! though give some support for a week or so to stocks via LQ.
RTE reached here around 3pm on Short Term (ST) Model - so last hour will be really good TELL. for me ... I must say, I am loving the market last few months .. my models are working amazingly ..so just about time for the CB's to throw a wrench in it LOL ..no, I really don't believe they can at least not on the IT trend ...only on the Short term moves of course ..but so far, this is the expect ST RTE bounce .. I think I posted the. key imbalance new signal Sunday for a bounce e...but it's across the whole model ..we've RTE'd ....so ...now we'll see if some ALGO's sell last hour at all .... or maybe selling is 'banned' until post FED and EOM tbd
* Substack is crap - I will find something else but my 'real life' is very busy for months..so when I get time ... but I can't highlight posts ! for now I will jus t'like' my own posts ..like some narcissist that fits in with today Matrix programming LOL
No buying last hour ..but no major selling ...looks like a-b-c up today ...so lets see tomorrow .. if a-b-c = done ..we sell off hard, if abc=A ..then be chop or pullback then C up into FED slope of hoppery
- this doesn't look SWING up ..more like a longer Short term bounce ...I cd be wrong as 4100 is major support ...no point predicting ..just follow the signals and setup which keep working ..until they stop working ...which is more likely in a FED week and EOM.
OH - It's FED week? so that will add fun and games to Short term moves as well ...I don't really pay attention to them anymore ..they are becoming irrelevant to all markets.
But I guess its another 'fishing hook of hope' to use.
I wonder how long the ALGO's will 'resist' the juicy fruit of this bounce here? ..that will be a tell ... I suspect we'll go more of the same producing at best a choppy bounce ...until the retail buying exhausts into mid week?
I Am seeing DISTRIBUTION Here today.... the imbalance can be used to see that as well ..when u get prolonger BTFD and price is not moving up as per today ..or relative to the buying ..it means someone big is selling into it ...and saw this right at beginning of drop if u remember way back ..seeing it here today, its only on smaller scale for now.... but ..I'll. keep an eye...it suggests ALGO's. using the 'trained monkey's to sell into EOM and seasonal strength.
VST - we 'shd' drop back down here to close gap up ..based the wave patterns ...and we have largely followed them to the letter ..there is always some b.s. and maybe we get some here to jam it back up ... IF we do drop ..to 4120 ..likely to try to bounce again there ... patterns have been mostly complex flats or variations.
- at some point we'll get a longer one of these SlopeHope bounces ..this one is likely a '4th' type wave though... we shall see
Were into EOM "strength' and season pattern - so if we can't get a bounce here ..its says ALOT and it ain't positive :-)
SAT OCT 28 - I MAY Post this weekend OR I may wait to see mon-tue because what we do is going to be a MASSIVE TELL for the model - of course, it might not be and then I won't update until next weekend .... I'll decide tomorrow AM but
- my NEXT VIDEO will one of the most important i've made in very long time! I am very sure of the model and my calls and setups .but more to point, IF I continue to be right ..this is most important timeframe since at least 2007 .... and possibly EVER ... hyperbole? .. I don't think so myself ..I can only give u my honest view as I always have .... I hope to hell I am either wrong or , we the PTB aren't ready ..and we get let off here....but we have that EXTREME RARE CONFLUENCE needed to execute a 'controlled demolision' and bring in next parts of the RESET of whatever u want to call it .. I'll would say 'GLobal control' but that too simple.
I will UPDATE MIDWEEK - any day this week once i see what I need to see ... I don't see any sign of major IT low ...so whatever happen even we get surprise bounce I see very high odds of retests ..so, I see no need to make a call here .... the TREND is DOWN ...on Swing and IT for now.
ONE KEY SIGNAL I spend time backtesting to 1980 is this one ...what I can tell you is, this one and couple other EXTREME RARE signals have fired ..that, give us 'well above average RISK of a CRASH' type move - to trigger it, we need to take out 4100 on the spx cash and fail to bounce if/when shorts finally start to pile ...well, we will get backsweeps but on daily/weekly basis
* in al market history, there has never been a IT low without this signal co-incidently reaching a low ...right now its bounced up and just rolling over ...so this puts VERY high odds, we need alot more TIME if not PRICES to reach a sustainable IT low - given the proximity of 4100 ....Logic dictates it won't hold ...and logic then dictates ALOT ...I will go over :-)
Same is true of this signal ..totally different ..but same idea - they are what call 'bottom triggers' - you literally can't get an Swing or IT low without them synching with Price to a low ...i've got many ..most are NOT synched ...which is Trouble * disclaimer nothing is 100% ..but its about 98% :-)
Over the years, i've noticed patterns and signals related to sites I posted at.
For this substack, we can track it ... I think you can see a definite 'signal' here... what does it mean? ...it means we have gone from 'sanguine' to 'worry' stage .... next comes 'embracement' and that its always close to the turn ...we have a ways to go there.
In meantime - i've been doing alot of work on the imbalance model, because i've seen how useful it is ..but its hard to get the 'math' I want ( a summation calculate of spikes) ...I have to do it visually ...but i've coming up with some better one s.. ..this isn't great, but it works really well on Short term ...i've got some really nice one to show on longer term but will discus in video.
FRI OCT 27 - Rinse Repeat ...and that ain't Good !
No change - as I've gone over the tape all week ..
Current corrective bounce is literally identical to last one form wise ...except now Dow is weaker and other component so only Comp is bouncing.
Most interesting - is we did NOT accelerate down ...this is BAD ... it implies to. me what I said late last night..and I will go over on video ..that this is much bigger trending move than I was thinking - but one step at time always.
4130 produced this bounce ..but as said, it looks like enough Retail hook - 4100 next ...then 'well see' ..but it hard for me to see the models changing enough by then to prevent. a break of that..and ALL that implies I've gone over.
GOLDEN RULE - there is SYMMETRY to the math of price moves ..thankfully..there is lots of 'rules' I follow infact.
- the Key one to realize here is -> in an IMPULSE ..the key measure is the EXTENDED WAVE ..usually 3 .....not always ..
- once we have a 3 I can produce measured moves with very high accuracy and probabilities
The key reason I mention is - we haven't see the '3' ..we can call it POR or PANIC ...
As I mentioned only EXTREME RARE EXCEPTION do we NOT get a POR/PANIC wave ...100% due to 'white night' ..it happens in 2007 and that is when I first really began to understand the power and extent of CB interventions... I just didn't understand HOW they did it, they took me a lot longer.
Again here - we 'shd' be going into POR_PANIC mode...but ..the MO of this so far, is we don't, we bounce and produce more 'slope of hope' to keep retail double long, zero short as I've gone over at length ....
-> longer it takes, the bigger the ultimate wave down targets ...barring as said a White Knight which is lower odds here given this time CB seem to be on the planning committee.
I believe I went over the tin August - Sept ...I said my view, we are market a SuperCycle top and I'll recap again in video soon I guess... it's depressing stuff at one level ..but it is what it is.
I don't have CONFIRMATION of the t..it will take a long time to get it , so what would be the EARLY signs of SuperCycle top ? ...and early real world problems
- I've gone over at length in the financial system in video's, and link one last video for roughly 2 years ago ...
- in terms of MARKET ...I am looking for WAVES and Retail Sentiment - what I'm seeing right now is definitely worrying ...only time I saw anything like it is 2007-2008
- What would really worry me ..is if we Do NOT PANIC here..and just keep doing this rinse repeat down into 4000 area ..or lower... then we 'need to talk' LOL
- in real world - I dunno' how about WWIII starting ..check ..we discussed this way back ...and eventually a CONTROLLED DEMOLOTION of economies ...check ..in progress ..so obvious yet as is usual most cannot see it ..has to be this way.
- 2024 though will be a sign post - Matrix 100% saying 'no or light recession' ..I predict a major recession of lower 80% of income/wealth ...top 20% can be ok for now ....though assets will begin to fall steeper - stocks, and housing begin slow roll over ...may stepen.
- REALIE MOst INTERNET/MEDIA 'data' is pure PSY OPS and no basis in our living reality , they will 'fake it ' for sure in to Nov 2024 for 'election' ... giving insiders cover to sell out. to retail.as just seen in markets last 4 months.
MATRIX SIGNAL is STRONG SELL - I've explained what I look at over the years, its amazingly accurate ...this is one of Strongest sell signals I've seen ...this SCREAMS PLANNED EVENT ..don't what else to say - those that can understand this reality do, those that can't wont' no matter how much evidence and logic I produce ..so I won't waste my time ..I could just quote the Matrix I guess 'you've been living in a dream world Neo' . (selection bias in binary catchment biological computers)
Until I see at least some Matrix Output that 100% occurs at even IT type lows - unless CB's come in has not even close here ...and I said why I doubt that.
- the current bounce is either wave iv of v of 5 down ..so drop to 4050-4080 to complete 5 ..BUT ..
- high odds its SUBWAVE of iii of 5 ..OR iii of 3 YIKES ..down
tbd
Both counts point to lower lows - its all I use waves for ...Model tells me odds of up or down, and waves tell me highest odds path to get there and to roughly where.
Once 4130 is taken out - I will know current bounce wave is done - then 'well see' to refine this ... could be this afternoon ..unless ALGO's want to drag it out as last one.
4130 being retested as I type - once the ALGO fishing is done and we drop to 4100 ...that is going to be informative - as yet again BTFD spiked ...though SLIGHTLY LESS than last few extreme's ...not by much though .. I don't know how those traders have an $ left in accounts ..but judging by this they won't for much longer :-)
THUR OCT 26 - Orderly Decline. - no panic whatsoever
Ground hog - read my notes from last 4-5 sessions - no change at all
EXCEPT we've now taken out KEY PIVOTS - intraday, we'll see if we close under then ..if so, I'll be amazed-balls if we don't get some panic acceleration.
SPX almost @ my 'ideal target' 4130 ..lets see if anything happens there.
* Dynamic pattern shows why 4100 is now VERY high odds to tag ...taken out the 'pink acceleration' zone
One step at time but this looks to me like the 'real deal' ..and we are heaed to 3600 lows retest...there maybe a major bounce before we there ...but I don't know from I see ..can't predict that ..must go on data as we go ...but logically
4100 is n't going to hold ..then 3600 is a massive magnet on my model
This suggests we are starting the Primary bear market right on queue ..we'll bounfe at the lows'ish ...in 2 of C type deal ..then get a 3 of C move down similar to 2008 ..timing difficult to say ...but I'd expect it to play out by mid 2024 way this is going.
since 4400 drop - we are NOT accumulating SELL imbalances (spikes of selling) ..that is a HUGE problem - it shows as said massive continuous BTFD , with almost no STFB ..there is ALWAYS a to and fro ..and I'm not going to go into this proprietary major edge tool ...but this is RARE infact, I don't ever recall seeing it ..but there again I only added this model about 2 years ago I believe ....
- but this IS very clear ... since 4400 ..and drop ..we are seeing the most one sided BTFD over selling ... I have seen in that say 2 year period ..
- probability wise ..its very bearish ..at least for next 1-2 session until and IF we can finally accumulate STFB imbalances.
OR something unique is going to happen - honestly, the only 'unique' thing that ever happens is the CB ALGO is turned on for a save ... its not very unique either LOL ...no sign of it, but I will know for sure given the current data. I actually don't see it work - it would lead to something led we saw in 2020 decline with crazy spikes ...the small short pool would cover leading to bigger declines ...
- the CB ALGO NEED a LARGE SHORT POOL to work ... its doesn't have that fuel here so would be counter productive ..and to be honest, I believe the CB planned this decline so odds of the ALGO 'white knight' are lower than 'normal' in this situation.
FYI - in case of 'data error' I always check again independent other data ..which confirms this ... and in any case, this data is literally impossible to be wrong and is unique to me ..so, zero change its been targeting unlike the CBOE put/call which is a joke and I no longer use.
FYI - 4170 is 1st resistance to the bounce ... so now I'll get a read into the close..
I don't see much change on the ST model .. there is LESS BUYING right now ..so this bounce must be ALGO DRIVEN ..purely off 4130 ... and a 'fishing expedition'
The bounce is CORRECTIVE ..and drop here off 4170 IMPULSIVE - so, yeah ... whatever fishing the ALGO's wanna do ..it ain't catching much fish ...so ultimately as said 4130 is very unlikely to hold and tag of 4100 is min new 'min target' ..then 'well' see'
* Whatever - it's VERY INFORMATIONAL whatever happens into the close here for me. If we collapse ..tomorrow could easily be a gap down and panic 5% day.
Based on that little fish hook move off of the bounce and the closing - my spidy-sense says tomorrow will be the leading edge of the POR - with Monday the real "O- %#*&" moment and then would look for a Tuesday turnaround - my targets are 3,800 t0 3,900, FWIW
Yeah that was ugly ..but we still don't seem to got any change ...im very interested to see if indeed we go into waterfall mode tomorrow ..if not, I also have a new road map here..I was going to post tonight but I'll wait to see tomorrow .... all I know for sure is - 4100 is going to be tested, and if it fails, which is likely ..3900 is very high odds based on historic math behavior.
It going to be more important as said WHERE WE CLOSE today ..if the predictable bounce off 4130 fades again ...then the downward slope is accelerating in my view.
If it holds...we are still in 'slope of hope' mode.
HEADS UP - I've said it over last 2-3 months ..but I'll say it again - IF EVER there was a RETAIL BULL TRAP ..this was It - I hope I'm wrong, I really do ...but this looks the real deal to me..a planned event ...I will soon know.
And YEAH - I am somewhat Amazed by what I am seeing ..but I don't follow the Matrix ..so I'm assuming a mass psy-op to train the monkeys was done last few months + as I laid out, the Central Bank Intervention in May for Banks led to a CB induced 'break out' that I said would lead to Reversion ...and caused Retail to be 'double long, zero shot' and 'fully trained bull believers ' ... was I right, or was I right? dunno' but I believe I am right :-)
The AUTO CORRECT on Substack is WORST I've ever seen! literally changes most things I write to make them wrong ..then I have to change them again ...Ugghhh..
Gap down ...but still not clear if the corrective bounce is done ...need to break the recent lows to confirm ...Dow holding up proceedings a bit...looks like we will break down to me but one step at time.
- Shorts spiked up a bit here ..but NOT at levels required for swing buy signal
- BTFD still the 'mode' here ...I've gone over what I think is needed to break the spell.
- on comp there is more support just below recent lows ...so another round of BTFD likely there. ...*12800 down to 12700 ....I think we'll have to eventually break under that ot change from BTFD to STFB
HEADS UP - I don't know how to be any clearer here... this is one of highest odds 'collapse' setups I've seen in a really long time ... whilst 4130 'could be a low' ...and 4100 is the 'last chance' ... I don't see literally anything on the model to get that low ...infact, we are in worse position now .... the odds of a waterfall to 3900 area is increasing ...it's say >60% at time point....we will see if/when we get down to key area.
OK - ive some what setup posts to chart on work computer ..its resolution is small so I have to shrink the image a bit .. not great for the IMBALANCe intraday signal ...but here it is ... I've gone over this many times ... big spikes up are 'excessive BTFD ' ...and drops right down to bottom are STFB ... this is simplification of things but will do ...
- note ALOT of big BTFD spikes at moment, actually, its going on for a week
- Some STFB comes in ..not much ..we get a bounce then...but the BTFD come back fast..
ERGO - the 'balance' is to BTFD strongly over STFB at the moment
Sweet Jaysus please tell retail to stop BTFD ..i;ve rarely seen anything like this.
WELL - I certaintly have the model setup for a an extended drop here in POR - it will be interesting to see how much more BTFD comes in at 12800 to 12700 comp ..kind of the 'last stand' ....and whether ALGO's have had enough 'backsweeping' and just sell into as so far today.
12800 TAG - let's see what the BTFD/STFB imbalance signal shows here ..it has to bounce right? retail have Brought every 'obvious' place to bounce on every timeframe from scalp to IT for 3 month .. but Now ALGO's are SELLING into it more and more...
Oh - not much ! at least so far and its corrective ..so I fancy ALGO's will take us lower today toward 12700 ..that's the really BIG one on comp - for SPX its 4130 ...
- MATRIX OUTPUT Finally CAPITULATED - after 2 years of constant top in yields calls...now I'm seeing mostly 'yields might have to go higher/longer' everywhere ..for first time
- rarely does such a POR mark the exact top ..but it a massive sentiment shift necessary
- I still go off the technicals /model /prices ....which for now says 54-56 is IDEAL high ..but if I see a 'reversal' I'd be more prepared to believe it here.
- I cannot rule out a black swan event in bonds if WWIII takes off
Gap up - bullish excitement abounds in retail land since we broke above 4300 back in early summer.
This looks ugly on my ST model - LQ has been strongly up, and BTFD signal showing EXCESSIVE signal .... very unusual in this situation ..but no surprise as I've gone over.
I sign NO SIGNS of even a Swing low type Capitulation - or exhaustion ... certainly not an IT one.
so I see no change of model high odds for 4150 ..and door opening to lower bounds toward 4100...just waiting for retail bulls to run out and bears to build...no sign of it yet.
WAVES - much maligned ..and for some good reasons..though mostly due to 'user error' and lack of understanding but
- the last few months have been some of CLEAREST and 'text book' wave I've seen in VERy long time ... quite beautiful ...and same on bonds and CRB for last couple years
Now I've said that - jinx - Kibosh - bad juju ..etc .. but Its been helpful and refreshing I have to say.
GUT FEELING + TAPE READ - we are finally starting to see POR in BOND MARKET ..I think the disconnect of LQ to stocks ...is very likely here because the TNX@ 50 (5%) has triggered institutional BUY PROGRAMS for bonds ... and OUT of STOCKS e.g. REBALANCING
- why hasn't this happened until now? ... yeah complex I guess... because RISK was too high in bonds ...risk is lower mathematically here ... at least compared to stocks by BIG margin
- psychology of numbers ... 5% and REFLEXIVE effect os self re-inforcing feedback
WE shall see - too early to be sure ..but if I'm right
- buying in TNX ( drop in price and yield) will NOT LEAD to STOCK POSITIVE CORRELATION ( as it has ) but TURN NEGATIVE ..or NEUTRAL
- this HAPPENS EVERY SINGLE Peak of YIELDS that preceed recessions ..almost all but not 'all' for example 1994-1995 rare exception in last 100 years I back tested ...was unique situation so the exception doesn't disprove the rule ..need to understand cause-effect ..our situation is as far from 1994 as it gets LOL ... is other extreme case of cause-effect.
- once it happens ..bear market odds increase, recession is being 'sensed' by bond market about 6month out ...but in modern AI and faster information flow - 1-2 month out ( infact, its begun I'm certain )
HEADS UP - I'm struggling to reconcile the sentiment signals and tape with the idea of this being 5 ... I can't see us getting enough capitulation for 'normal IT low' by 4100-4130...however
- I am often wrong about how fast data can change
- This is EERILY similar to the top In 2007 from my memory ...that actually had almost identical situation ..and we DID make IT low WITHOUT CAPITULATION ...we bounced in '2' without it ....then from there...well, history shows u ....so its possible something like this ...but its RARE ..infact, in my 25 years that's the ONLY TIME I've seen that happen...why did it happen? ...how long u got? ..heck how long I got ? :-) ....its 'complicated' ..short version ..I suspect, because 'it was planned' ...are we in another 'planned' move ..hmmmmmmmm ..I'll let u interpret the number of m's there. :-)
LAST HOUR - I 'feel' until we see a surprising and strong move up last hour ..i.e. ALGOs ..and that holds and not sold immediately ( institutional support) .that all the intraday 'stuff' is just retail BTFD in slope of hope mode ....
- longer this 'mode' goes the more bearish it is ... I'd say usually it can last 2-4 sessions but rarely more before a big sell program would come in.
- that rules out new impulse down ..we are Still in a CORRECTIVE BOUNCE
- that's bearish ..as it rules out a lower odds '4-5' here really
There are always ALOT of patterns for this type of corrective ...best guess
- C up for ABC as said into tomorrow ..then grind back down
- in 'e' now of abcde ...so 'waiting for buyers to exhaust' type move ..then fast down before close is possible or into close or gap down tomorrow
- or we get a long extended messy XYZ type deal ..
- tbd
Whatever it is - this is increasing the odds of lower targets on my models. We are still seeing 'frantic BTFD' at literally every conceivable buy point - depending on if you're a scalper, st trader or whatever. and what system u use ..I know nearly all of them...so can see 'why' folks are buying ....call it 'tape read' - and it's clearly
- NOT ALGO buying ..or institutional money
- and it strongly appears all retail driven ...hmmm ..
I cd be wrong ..but the tape 'feel' to me ...is retail is still in BTFD mode..and not even reached STFB mode...and actually as I expect the BTFD has INCREASED at reach 200dma again .... what would that take to turn sentiment bearish? ...likely a close 1% or more as said under 4200..so 4150... but its hard for me to see that being enough to build up shorts et for IT type low as wave 5 ...but one step at time ...jus thinking aloud :-)
but the way we keep bouncing excitedly as literally every single obvious BTFD point ...then grinding down again ... this is dangerous ...as I've gone over at length...so. many back sweeps stops short pool building up.
5 subways up of AM gap down and break of 200dma ... bigger bounce chance as said ..but literally nothing else looks setup on my signals/model ... but we'll see what we get. Certainly can't afford to drop negative into the close again from here.
Likely getting a breather as everyone calls top and sells TNX at 50 ... it should be START of topping ..and maybe it is ...but its too early to tell here.
Dow bounce is corrective ..and we are getting more and more differences between all the indexes ...so I focus mostly on the SPX as 'broad market' .... but on the comp...I think its also 'interesting' how least fear, and fastest to get bounce .. so retail are trying chasing the last runup here..hmmmm.
It's not all 'bad'...some beautiful photo's on nature here..hopefully even if the humans predictably continue to destroy the planet and each other ..some nature will survive and recover.
THIs is very reminiscent of the 2007 top to me on the waves...no obviously but on how I look at things differently ... today confirm for me 5 down .. I think odds of making new Cycle high for B B wave or even ATH are dropping rapidly as I forecast... this is strong confirmation
- looks on models NEXT WEEK will be the Point of REcog POR - pretty weird, since 'everyone know' Oct is danger period historical ..in some inverted logic Retail has somehow been Svengali'd into believe that means 'bad=good' and is buying oppertunity .
- so NEXT week will likely tell me ALOT on if right and how right or wrong I am on my bear market call a few months back ..and DEGREE and likely PATH of it.
- I will tell you straight up, 4100 spx ABSOLUTELY MUST HOLD ..its only 3% below ..a failure even intraday to hold it ...and I am looking for absolute devastation drop to 3900, and possibility lower in next few weeks. ...with high degree of confidence in model.
2 years of Deja vu ..UBS Calls The Bottom: "Treasury Selloff Hits Capitulation... Marks End Of Current Unwind""
I've corrected the headline "UBS and every other financial expert calls the bottom, every month for 2 years ..trend continues ' - and when finally the broken clock is correct they will declare 'we called the bottom ' LOL ...hey, just like most market expert do :-) (actually, most are so unclear on their 'calls' they constantly can claim they are right ...or make one call for life ..bullish or bearish ...and point it when it goes their way... oh, the fun of financial astrology).
HEAD UP - NEW PRICE MODEL Min' Projection 4130 area
I will show some of this at weekend .. I actually posted one simple model 3 video's ago for this ..
I Must admit - i am loving the Price models more and more ...they are so simple, and infact, very high probabiltiy .... compared to all the complex - vast data/signals in model ...much easier to SHOW as well.
I will give my 'simple' version of what I see here - same as I'v posted for 2months
- we are very high odds going to need more Oct panic as i've laid out
- 4130 ..but say 4100-4150 is the minimum 'price nexus for that ....
- Then i'd look for IT bounce to 61.8% type retrace back up ..likely choppy into Xmas
- then big 3rd type wave down
But ALT - is we FAIL to hold 4100 ...and the wave '5' expands....and honestly, right now this is 'lower odds' but 'not by much' ways things are going..... if so, as i've said, a very nasty price projection on models to 3900 area in a 'waterfall move' .... I wd assume fear wd spike enough
( just for completement- Outlier risk here is a black swan ..its always low odds ...but higher than i've seen most of my time since 1998 .... a failure of 3900 wd indictate tha t..way off of course..but just for completeness and in case thing move very fast ..... then can't say downside i'd have to look at monthly price models).
YIKES - remember what I said?... about just grinding down to 200day again ..then accelerating ... we re WAY TOO SANGUINE again here ...not seeing any of the usual signs of a successful retest type move ... so odds increasing of that....though as I say there going to b e chance for low @ 4150 area I believe ( but would require a massive POR and flipping of shorts/long retail data)... one step at time ... I just follow the data/signals/odds ...I cannot predict as we know ..
CLOSE - weekly ..I'd normally say 'look out for selling Into close ' of move like this ...but the alarming thing here is the LACK of SELLING ...or concern ..and most ST signals picking up BTFD ....so maybe retail think this close is another BTFD because Monday will be up when world doesn't end ...?? I don't try to understand what b.s. the Matrix is telling retail...but it must be something like this ... only thing I see is we 'should' sell off hard, but MO is we tend not to ..and BTFD at any and all possible buy points ...
- but Weekly candle looks ominous unless we see a save stick into close.
That definitely looks like I ..ii ..iii down as I expected...now a bounce here iv ? ,,,cd be but this is where the higher degree count will matter ....I won't bore with a waves TED talk ..but its not so simple from here... I will see 'what we get' and use that to help give setup for ST.
But I don't see much as said to support more than more BTFD slope of hope bounces here.
- Tagged 3300 ...5 minor down as said ... tried to bounce and Imblance shows TON of BTFD .and a 'spike signal' which is bBEARISH .... Powell I bldiieve speaking .
- Bonds no bounce.then selling off ...oh dear, whart a surprise ..NOT
I think that as i've covered was last chance ...and this 5 down C ...can now be 1.2 .now 3 of C ...or even of 1 down of impulse ...but one step at time.
- cd be in 2 today ...or this AM ... or start of 3 IF this is occurring ...shd be obvious by the close
* FYI - I have to 'like my post' to make it show at top when have multiple pinned posts... I am not into self-agrandizing ...well, maybe a little :-) ...
Update count .. been playing out very 'naturally' for once!!! shows how well waves would work if not for the endless b.s. on tape ...suggest more 'emotion' than usual
The WEEKLY CANDLE and Price Dynamic is SUPER BEARISH here ..so unless tomorrow see's a 'shocking' turn around to upside ...aka intervention ... odds of what I've laid out coming increases. I don't have time this week to post charts ..but I'll post a video round up at weekend ... things are moving to a critical juncture here rapidly.
I do hope, that this is n't some desperate attempt by Democrats to create 'war time president' type support into Nov 2024...because if it is, its very misguided and from the looks of events today, is already (as planned by PTB no doubt) escalating dramatically ... this feels to me as I said week ago 'very bad' ...all hallmarks of PTB to me.. I am definitely very concerned where this is headed ..and I believe I know as said.
"I’ve spoken with the State Department official who’s resigned in protest against the Biden administration’s approach to Israel and its war with Hamas.
Josh Paul headed the bureau that oversees arms transfers, and he said he could not support the US decision to keep sending weapons to Israel while it lays siege to civilians in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas.
Paul told me he believed that Israel’s actions violated US legal provisions meant to restrict weapons sales to human rights abusers and those who broke international humanitarian law."
Yep - so that should be 2..now start of 3 ... if its impulsive ..so strong down now ..to retest of lows ... if we bounce, or dither ..something more complex is going on for first time ..because this has been very 'by the book' natural waves here ..RARE on Short term ..implies a lot of EMOTION on tape.
Now, if my 'retail mega bull trap' 'theory' is correct ..this will keep getting little back sweeps ...down to the retest ..then GAP DOWN and run and go into full meltdown - waterfall mode ... one step at time ...but I'm watching signals carefully here for any sign of retail flipping back to fear/shorts ..ZERO sign so far.
IS a CRASH possible? no ... markets are too controlled to crash in truest sense..but
a PLANNED crash 'like' move ...well, I've laid out for a while...it depends on ur definition ...but a move to 3900 is totally as I've said 'possible' here .. it all depends on 'the plan'
First, I posted an important note last on LQ signal turning down ...
Market has done EXACTLY what I said yesterday - poked above to run stops above then reversed ..there are clear simple patterns here ..FOR NOW! ... this 'she' be some sort of C down currently today..again must hold 4300 area then bulls have chance for another up move .. BUT .. see my comment last night ...the 'decision' of effect of external events comes next few sessions ..a break of 4300 ...that opens door to my 'fast drop to retest the recent Swing low'...
TNX - see yestersdays comment in detail of that...not looking good ...
- INTERNALS took a Big Negative shift today on Models ..moving probabilties to Swing or new IT down move rather than Swing/IT low
- notable was the new low in Stocks above 50 day moving average - that a VERY unusual one ..and definitely negative
- the TRIN gave a REALLY RARE SELL signal .... um, hmm .. seen preceding many waterfall declines.
TOMORROW will be VERY informative - if no immediate impulse up, that will confirm my view ..that a retest at minimum is highest probabily ..but I still believe a panic to 4150 or 4100 is high odds ..... and if we get an 'event' ..bonds..or exogenous ...3900 is doable.
YEP - I wd love to do video but not time tonight ... but to show some thigns i'm seeing
- but the ENTROPY - DISORDER of the SYSTEM is definitely now showing up ...this is hard one to show & explain ...but 'disorder' here is the
- disconnect of signals that normally are correlated ( sort of opposite of MCHVIE I discussed)
- rising is HIGH RISK PATTERNS or SIGNALs ( ones that are rare, don't predict a crash but ALWAYS appear just before them ..)
- Rise of setups that 'shouldn't' be happening
- more I can list ...but that is idea
This doesn't say we are headed for a crash - but i've always seen/felt this before major tops .... it can be upto a month or two away...but I don't think so this time ..as I said, model signals called the top last month .... I suspect we are past it ...and rising entropy means the 'normal' final up move is curtailed or occurs AFTER a panic down here .
Its very interesting that's for sure ... just technically ... I can see models today are right in 'decision zone' a took big lean to 'drop' mode as per post above..
- so tomorrow into Friday even more important to add or remove from those 'leanings'
..and as I said, retail $ data has retail leaning to max long, min short ....hmmmmm.
btm line - more and more looks to me we're headed for perhaps an historic 'even't or 'period' ... that system is loosing control ...bonds ..crb and now LQ .....price 'holding' for now ...but won't last if those are lost .....and will catchup .... its possible a 'save' comes ..but my gut has been this has 'planned insider finger prints'...more clues tomorrow.
SIGH - add to all my comments earlier ..that not only is SPENDING NOT being drastically CUT ..its INCREASING!
- not content to start one PROXY WAR in Ukraine NOW
- the War Lovers or puppets of PTB seem intent on new Proxy war in Middle East.
WAIT! But Mark, this is terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel ... not a 'planned war' .. yeah well, if you want to put your head up ur backside ..sure ... go watch Wag the Dog movie and get a clue.
You are telling me
- Israel security system - literally the most high tech, total security of any nation that ever existed ..didn't have a clue Hamas was about to launch a massive attack? ( 9/11 echo's anyone?... efals flag anyone?)
- Now you tell me just as Russian/China get involved to broker a deal and peace ..a large hospital is bombed ... but can't be proved who did it ..so both side blame each other and ramp up tensions ..aka 'war drums' ... and now entire Arab world want s a massive war .. ( Calico cat scene from Wag the Dog comes to mind as I sadly watched this at gym last night...and all war mongers on Matrix vision ..salivating at the death and destruction they crave).
This is depressing, truly, on many scales -but nothing new at all is it for those who know history, real history that is.
- someone ..and its hard to say exactly who ..but very powerful ..WANT A BIG and likely long war ..proxy war ..of course.don't want it on big boys soil.
- It seems that the WWIII is for now ..a bunch of Proxy wars....why do PTB want that...well, I've said.1 -2 years ago ..they want to collapse the financial system via rising yields and inflation .and reducing average person to bankruptcies to depend on Govt ( eventually of course the FEMA/WHO or in reality PTB puppet Global authority) ... nice long proxy wars are 'great' for racking up debt and inflation Arne't they?
I'd love to be wrong ..but last night convinced me this is the case ... sadly most humans are so easy to whip up into 'hate' ...or as I call it 'lower their vibrations' .. the HARD WORK is to resist that ( resonation of our base instincts)..the .person all these haters and war mongers claim to believe in aka Jesus( or similar) I don't recall them saying 'yes, reek vengeance, don't forgive, no mercy' ... double think is strong with the majority...
- and I get it, its tough to not do that ..its hard work,, THAT is the POINT! ...and no, that doesn't mean do nothing and be pacifist ...but there are strategic and proportional responses to avoid escalation...and also tackling the underlying causal issues.. I mean, duh! .and sure 100's or 1000's years of historical 'bad blood' makes that tough..but I believe that it COULD be solved. (Ireland is good example in my personal experience of growing up in London under constant bomb threat ..was solved..or 'allowed to be solved' eventually) ... but won't be allowed to happen as too much vested PTB power plays in region ..but make no mistake -
- the PTB WILL even SACRIFICE Isreal and or anyone it feels like when it suits them...
Hard to see how humanity survives ...as Tolkien tried to explain in LOR and love that line about 'man so easily seduced' ( by hate/darknes') .... I am actually an optimistic person by nature, probably doesn't seem like it due to topic we discuss ...but I admit , the last few years and now this is testing it ... hard to see a positive path here.... other than personally I am fine but I mean on big picture. I FEAR for people of Israel, and Arab world ..and all of us down the road here..the PTB agenda is so obvious and sadly unstoppable - fear, greed , hate, division rinse repeat ..anything but 'elevation' as I call it .... Neve let people unite of rhhigher purpose than material bs.. ..don't ever let them realize their own divinity ..I don't really believe in 'evil' ..but yeah...these people in PTB and their puppets are closest thing to it.
Certainly part of it - its complex ...this is multi factored 'attack on the mass psyche' for sure ..mind, body, spirit assault ... planned .. the concept your describing there is similar to Orwell's doublethink or back to Marx 'false consciousness' ...that the mind cannot hold 'two truths' and there is 'struggle' and a 'cost' to that struggle ..I call it friction ... some friction is unavoidable ( the journey to enlightenment we can use these term, I say the 'experiential journey to elevation/Higher vibration ) ...but some of from environment ...and that is the major issue right now ..the environment is 'resonating' most into friction ... which will express as physical, mental and spiritual 'cost' ... I see it worsening week by week ... and for sure is 'planned environment' to de-stabilize those unable to balance themselves and block out the 'external environment' .... essentially most are being resonated/conducted (music) into lower vibratory states ... hate, anger, fear, greed .etc... and unable to defend themselves.
- as I typ e..just did minor iv ...of v down of something ..so a lower this this afternoon ..then 'well see' ..if its C and done, will reverse up strong .. but I suspect as I've gone over ..it morphs into a 1...2..3 down of C ..or even 1 down of something worse.
02:37 What’s fueling consumers’ ‘surprising’ spending power? Refinanced mortgages play a role, NY Fed says MarketWatch"
Really, no shit Sherlock ..LMFAO ...do they really think most financial readers are THAT STUPID ..apparently they are?! ... FED also find water is wet, and sky is blue ... how much they spent to reach these astounding conclusions isn't indicated.
I named it the HOUSE ATM back in 1999 ....24 years later FED are still USING that policy .(it didn't happen by chance now didn't LOL ..FED CREATED THIS ..how blind are people???) ... only NOW that policy is blowing up in their face ... by DESIGN Of course ..and NEXT they will pretend to no know why, or how ... knowing Matrix will play along and most will buy it ...ike how they 'saved' us at the 2009 lows LOL.
LOL - tiny bid on bonds ..and breathless headline even on perma bear sight about it
- these are NOT the signs that yields have topped ..even if you ignore the reality of what's driving it and just looked at sentiment! ... still daily/hourly almost 100% calls for yields to drop everywhere relentlessly for 2 years ... zero capitulation.
Let me simplify the above rant in terms even the FED and Barrons can understand
- rates are rising due to Asset bubbles
- rates won't fall until the bubble pop
This is why I said 2 years ago they are 'boxed in' - its simple ..in last 2 years have stocks risen? nope ..have bonds yields risen relentlessly ..yep.
The more FED and Govt spend ..worse it gets ..more yields rise
The longer it takes to pop the house/stocks bubbles ..the more yield rise.
Oh - you want yields to drop? then pick ..stop Govt spending and crash economy that way, or allow asset bubbles to pop and crash it that way. Oh and the longer it takes, the worse it will be, as your starting from higher and higher rates and longer and longer for masses to pull horns in due to the 'wealth effect'.
Have fun :-)
( the more complex 'box' I explained is understanding the global situation - K position - and commodities and 'inflation' effect ..but amounts to same as above).
DENIALISM - I saw an article in Barons title along lines of "Household Wealth has taken off - FED data shows' ... if you read it, its sums up that reality is the EXACT OPPOSITE of the title..classic NLP Narrative programming via headline ...bury the truth.
- the implication is 'has taken off' is current time frame - this is FALSE.
- the data is referring tot the 2019-2021 latest FED induced + Biden Induced HOUSING and STOCK BUBBLES!!!!! ... that's also what apparently 'wealth' means - real income have barely risen and the claims are false on that too ..using statistical selection to paint false picture ..like how unemployment ignores those who give up looking ...and income data ignores many things.
So, I mean, DUH! When you blow up a massive ASSET BUBBLE ..aka 1995-2000, 2003-2007 and 2019-2021 ... ASSETS RISE and you call it 'wealth' .... it's NOT SAVINGS, it's NOT INCOMES ..or anything REAL ... but headline of course paints the narrative being sold,
then 'analysis' is
- this explains why the economy is 'so robost' ..do I laugh or cry here???? for those that remember ENRON ...its the same 'logic' except of course its DELIBERATE DISINFORMATION to setup masses as usual.
>>The level of ORWELLIAN MINISTIRY of TRUTH b.s. like this on economy is at new level this year.
The biggest joke here is
A. the FED DATA ..really? the FED CREATED the F'in bubble ..they would know!! LMFAO
B . RATES aren't going to FALL until the ASSET bubbles COLLAPSE ..that's how it works Duh doh! and this is why ... 'household' FEEL WEALTHY and keep spending beyond means as I've said, because they think they have these assets ...but is a mirage ...obviously...
So the whole basis is always the same 'as long as we remain in biggest bubble of all time and it always goes up and never down ...we're fine '.... yep, that's some SMART 'analysis' Barrons ...hope you paid them the big bucks for that...and 'way to learn from 2000 and 2007'.
Of course, its as said disinformation plain and simple ..but I'd just thought I'd point it out.
What is doubly bad in 2023 unlike 2000 and 2007, as I've said for 2 years, is those were in a DININFLATIONARY K-Winter ..now were in REFLATIONARY K-spring ( albeit a Frankenstein version with K-winter lag on Assets still to play out) ..... good luck getting rates to drop and commodities to come down without that 'wealth' aka assets bubbles collapsing ... as I've noted the masses are NOT pulling back ...and indeed this is the answer ... congrats' the the FED and BIDEN Admin for proving 1+1=2 yet again. - someone get them the Nobel Prize for economics ..even about the level of that award these days. :-)
My gut tells me this is the ending Diagonal 5th wave beginning on SPX. If so, my only question is does it take out the July high (4,607) and top-out after or truncate and fall short of that high
It 'she' be ... if all else where 'equal' .. we shall see .. I have feeling it might need one more drop ...but still cd then get 5th ..but I believe it will truncate ..based on the model ..similar to top in 2021/2022 very strong model rhyme here
This is as said going to be 'complex' here ... my best 'guess' is this is now 'c' up, of a C of an ABC bounce...where the C is a-b-c ... .. so as I said, THIS leg she be the strongest ..or at least most pesistent leg (albeit from a gap down on comp) ....
btm line - today will tell me a lot ...how much strength ...etc ..my suspicious is we run some stops just above then reverse again ...and then top out ...but it could be slow or fast ... or I cd be 'wrong' as we morph into an even more complex pattern ... or I'm even more wrong and this is 1 up of Ending Diagonal 5th ..I can't rule that out ... YET ...but as I've gone over ... my 'feeling is' the ENTROPY of the market won't support that ... that's more discussion than I can put in these comments ...next video maybe.
BONDS are one reason I talked about ..they again broke back up fast here ... not a good sign ..maybe they will now base again..which has been pattern before going higher ..but as said, I do 'feel' we are close to a blow off on TNX ...waiting on 'something' ...pretty easy to see what! ..likely a ground offensive - commodity panic - bond blow off type thing
DOLLAR - dropping in also A-B- now C down type pattern ..one more up to come? panic into dollar safety as near term IT top maybe?
AS I said - Let market tell me here...too many patterns ..not enough conclusive model data or probabilities ....but you know my 'leanings' here :-)
FYI - that LQ signal I went over at weekend CROSSED DOWN today ..that is a very negative development ... I see very strong rhyme to OCt-Nov 2021 here on Wave pattern and many models.
^ current bounce up is AMAZINGLY like Dec 2021 infact ...looked at price & models...if so..we drop hard soon ...then bounce hard in the '5th' of sorts ..but it will be heavilty truncated ( see Dec 2021 for guide) ...then back down even harder....just a possible road map ..won't match exactly ..but literally everything I look at says we are in a similar topping period here ....can play out many ways of course ... but I lean the Entropy is increasing (DISORDER of the system) so it will get harder and harder to reach 'targets' and 'natural pattern completion' the long it takes here...as exogenous events take hold
* on comp I would use Jan 2022 .... but rhymes on indexes to that period is the point
I have been looking over the TNX/TLT wave patterns ..which have played out perfectly for the last 18 months to count I gave..
- we 'shd' now be in final 5th ...of like first Leg UP of SECULAR BULL in yields ( to make it clearer, thanks Tim )
- we are likely in end of 3 of 5 ...or 4 of 5 ...hard to tell without a bit more next week or so
BUT - looking at model as well - there is a chance ..this is beginning of a 3 of 3 of 5 ..
- put another way , this is likely MAX RISK area for a BLOW OFF PANIC in bonds ..and overshoot to my long standing target of 50-55 area on TNX
This would likely only happen in ONE SCENARIO - mass selling by FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS and INSIDERS .... but why? ...well, see all my comments over last 2 years on why this move would happen - the BOX, the financial system setup ...the FED actions (or inaction) etc
So I am watching VERY CLOSELY the next 1-2 weeks here ... to tell exactly where I believe we are....
- if its 4 of 5 ..we base/pullback mostly SIDEWAYS for WEEK or SO
- if its still 3 ..bu not 3 of 3 ...we make new highs on YIELDS ..say TNX Into 50-52 area
- but if we SURGE .. up ..RISK RISING of that 3 of 3 panic ...and that would off course be vert serious ... no point going over it all again unless I see the pattern.
- if we pullback ...I she add ..likely still 4...just a flight to safety.
" Fed’s Barkin sees ‘plausible story’ that slowing economy is working to bring inflation back to 2% target MarketWatch"
Read my comment yesterday - I don't even know how to comment on that 'gas lighting'. Why is this guy being sent out to say something so idiotic ? ... FED beginning to lose control of Bond market???? could be honestly ..there is not ZERO RISK of BLACK SWAN here..
The joke - even if inflation did drop under 2% due to 'slowing economy' - the economy would still go off a cliff because 80% of people are slowly drowning from current price ...they would still be RISING LOL ... it seems to me 99% people lack questioning ability, and its got worse and I speculate as to why ... but I mean, isn't what I'm pointing out BLINDLINGLY OBVIOUS? ..apparently not to most 'analysts' ... as said, mass detachment from reality syndrome.
- a WAVE of MASS LAYOFF's in NOW occurring ...I know this for fact..my sources are very good ..and multiple
- Also that as said 80%+ cannot afford to live - rent, pay mortgage, buy food, gas, car payments ..you know the basic things ..not even the other things most are ADDICTED to spending. on due to Matrix ... AND have eaten through savings from the 'big COVID handouts' ..burned through credit cards and carrying sizable growing rollover month to month at highest rates in most experiences ... and are now getting delinquent as exponential rate on anything rerquiring constant payments .... That bit is just starting, give it about 6 months to 'show up on most economic data radar'.
I think this is going to be a bit different to recent recessions - a slow rollover as most are conditioned to keep spending, live another day..short term ....and see the 'hard landing' part will come likely right at END of it ... so a slow grinding roll off a cliff type deal ..UNLESS some events (planned or otherwise' cause a POR
FYI - sorry, to be clear ..that count above is for SPX ... actually a good point here is that COMP and most of indexes - IWM, BKX ...Dow ALL have DIFFERENT COUNTS here .... that's usually an indication of a complex corrective ...and not 'synched'
If we drop back under AM low on DOW and say 4350 on SPX ..the 'c' and C is high odds done...and we'll see then if this impulses down to say ABC complete OR turns into something even more complex!
UNTIL those levels break..we can get mor e upside attemps ..but this does look we poked above ..ran stops and reversed as I indicated likely
Thanks for all your input--I am totally lost --been that way since 2008. I guess the millenial hedge funds see a Dow at 100,00 in the future. Of course getting in at 40,00 you got to really believe---me--i will only risk max 20% either way!! I am 70 yrs old--I have given up on 25% gains for any future years My risk tolerance is very weak!! luckily for the last 2 years I have no bond exposure--most financial consutants(i read but don't use))--suggest still--that I should be 50% in bonds!!
Yes, the 'analysts' have been totally wrong for 2 whole years on bonds, literally calling tops every week and rates will fall - I'll give myself some credit here, I laid out. a year ago why they would be wrong and that rates would reach these levels.
Stocks - it's got tough to use any logic as it's run by AI ALGO's .... Dow 100,000 ...we might see it by 2030 ...if we don't collapse here first, but if we do, next stop is likely Dow 10,000 again LOL
I used you view 2 years ago (I know I did because nobody else looked closely as your analysis at that time) on bonds--thanks so much!! there was some swings but nothing major!! I dont think you changed your view on bonds 2 years ago
Glad it was some help - I haven't changed my view yet but it something I have focused on because I manage mine/wife 401K and looking to park in bonds if/when I think they top ... getting close ..I think, but still risk of a blow off move...once they turn it will be clear. ...it's actually much easier for me to model bonds than stocks ...much less 'b.s.' !
when you say top--my mind says-- say what--then I realize you are talking about yields topping --not the price of bond I get confused. note to self--bond price down --yields up- . stupid me -- always confused on baasic stuff!!
MY Honest opinion right here - market participants are in total denial/mass delusional psychosis about the future here ... one of biggest 'reality gaps'. = Reality - perceived reality I've seen since I've analyzed markets since 1998 ... that's 25 years not 23 ..my math ain't good I guess LOL
This says nothing about Short term - as I said, let the market tell us here ...but ...its what I've seen before every major market top in my experience ..saw it 2000, 2007 ... just sayin' ..maybe this time reality truly doesn't matter ... grab the popcorn and lets see over the next 1-6 months. :-)
Small GAp....UP ..on futures ...think about that ...UP ... if I listed all the risks and things wrong here...it would be long list ... like, oh I don't know ..Israel invasion of Gaza triggering a domino effect start of WWIII ....sheesh..to quote Dustin Hoffman character in 'Wag the Dog' "this is nothing" LOL ....everyone is so used to Every bad thing being saved ..so 'bad=good' they clearly cannot understand when potentially 'bad=bad'.
- this SUMS up what I talked a bit about on the weekend video .I couldn't really pick the words ...its sort of like a TANTRUM / DENIAL / PETULANT - child refusing to change actions ... well, reality is going to be a tough teacher here over the next 12-24 months
I do wonder what has caused this change ... I have to believe it a combination of
- the COVID period
- the massive handouts
- the fake reality bubble that spawned
- social media addiction and fantasy escape of 90%
- perhaps the mass 'dementia' i've talked about
Its definitely different to anything i've seen ... I suspect, it means we headed is a slow but LONGER grind down over next few years
Sadly - wars tend to show up at times like there ..Primary waves in terminals ... 1929-1939 period being the last. I hope we don't see WWIII but its looking more and more like a 'planned Wag the Dog' one is on the cards alas.
I've got a really interesting LQ chart to show you ...have to be a video ..its really sums up my view of our position very nicely .... probably be sunday AM that I have time. But here is snap shot, to be discussed. I backtested it and a pattern on here is very consistent, though, probably not obvious.
https://youtu.be/pp0xZ1kNx_E
***********************NEW THREAD for Dec ********************************
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/december-real-time/comments
Fri Dec 1 - ( new thread over weekend when I have time ) I'll link to this one.
***********************NEW THREAD for Dec ********************************
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/december-real-time/comments
Getting a rally but so far its no barn burner ...so its 'sorta' enough $ for 5th ..at least on some indexes..tech now lagging.
Bonds dropping cd be significant for weekly close tbd
But dollar to me looking l ike bottoming action ..impulsive bounce now retracement.
Its complex - as it always is in the LQ normalizing phase ... I think ..its a 'guess' that next week will see finally normalization ..I cd be wrong of course.
TODAY - move up we'll use SPX is either 5 ...or I of 5 ....as discussed.
SENTIMENT - WOW this is really something now ...much more of this and we will see the kind of readings that 'make sense' for super cycle peak ....probably not price peak as said.
Call buying in particular ..yikes ... if we get another week of retail polls at current levels or near...it will rival others i've seen as well..amazing how quick this happened...that is VERTY unusual ..probably the FASTEST SPIKE/PEAK of Retail bullishness ratio to bearishness in history...power of the Matrix.
Judging from Matrix output - I'll make a CALL - TODAY was the EUPHORIA PEAK
Which doesn't say it can't last longer, or a bit higher....and says nothing about PRICE...but in terms of generating the sort of Euphoria I expected...I'd say we are there ..quite crazy..usually take much longer ...this is getting fascinating.
Oh wait - so Science was right and $science was wrong, shocked, shocked I say ...I like how under oath and out of office this Is said, dont' expect the Matrix to share it ..I will still be banned. on all platforms if I said this ..this is why I was banned by YouTube for quoting 60 years of studies which all proved this and that 1+1=2 since viruses are 10-6 meters or smaller and holes are 10-3 or bigger ...but hey, nope I was banned for saying just that.. where is my apology? LOL
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/watch-uk-health-security-head-admits-use-face-masks-was-never-evidence-based
No doubt the Matrix will now dismiss this as 'crazy conspiracy talkl' and find the one study in 100 ( literally true this) that show mask help...paid for by guess who LOL
Thur Nov 30Th - Hmmmm
Dow leading now is it??! comp and spx dragging during the super positive EOM into Dec.
Sentiment continuous on the trajectory I've laid out.
TNX and USD had every chance here to breakdown and take out critical levels ..both haven't ..lets see where the EOM and EOW closes are which are critical ..I am leaning despite appearances and Matrix relentless output the likes of which I've rarely seen ..that its not going to be so easy ...and as said, they are bottoming again but tbd
I'll repost this chart from last night..I think it's probably the simplest visual of what belief of our position.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODk5NDE4Ml8yMjQ3NDA3Ng
TOMORROW - is going to be FIRST REALLy Big TELL on this move ...( and possibly bonds)
- if it gaps up and runs ..then still some $ for a 5th up
- if it churn ..then are at exhaustion
- but if GAPS DOWN..and gets into 14000 gap on comp...then I believe I can start to make a call here and we are starting a swing down ....there may be retests of the recent highs for move...or just go ...
FYI - retail bull to bear sentiment just hit highest levels it typically reaches ....AAII confirmed my other data ... this is NOT typically the 'final high' ...but its often where exhaustion comes and a retracement ...EXCEPT in major IT 3rtd up waves which are very rare ....
-->>SO - I'm thinking aloud here a bit ..as I said I was thinking about some 'stuff'.
I put in these intraday blog - my 'real time thoughts' mostly ...and some of it helps me to make those Video posts down the road ..which it seems most people subscribed read ..but most don't read this ... which I get ...but really, the video's are a lot less detail and misses a lot I put here.
oh - I was going to say something on this point ..got distracted..I forget..! :-) t will come back to me I hope ...and I will put below...
OH! yes ..so there are some things I will 'chat about' here...but I don't feel I can put in the video's. Specifically, information I get from my property management connections. So, basically I work closely with the owner of vast amount of real estate ..who is 'connected' to people in all key area's of real economy ..especially credit/banking/real estate and other businesses ... AND also through my work ..which involves dealing with many businesses..workers..and those paying rents/there finances and applicants and their financial and industry data for rental pricing etc etc ... its a 'Birds Eye view' of real time real world economy ...and I don't feel I can post than in my videos' but only 'chat' here.
- what I'm 'hearing' ( this is very firm data ) is there is a MAJOR CREDIT CRUNCH in banking sector and THAT is what LED CB to FLOOD Liquidity ( seen by many observers in hindsight now ...but I told u using my real time measure s..big difference!) ..
- and yes this has temporarily as it always does...eased the credit markets But
- its NOT helping the 'real world' credit ...if anything from what I hear..its worrying the banks and others into stricter policy on fear of the fact such action was needed ..they aren't stupid and the top level people I know understand to reasonable level ..the game here.
So bottom line is the consensus form ^this .and discussion we have to look out in 2024 for our rental pricing etc ..is we are SLOWLY seeing conditions tighten ..some area's of economy are going fast ..certain retail sectors in big trouble here ....I think u will see some of thing in data from Black Friday trough new year .... but the CB and GOVT are throwing so much LQ at this ..to try to stop the major effects of a contraction before Nov 2024...
- it looks like they can succeed in stocks ...somewhat in bonds..tbd ..CRB ..unkown I need to analyze this more
- and in slowly pace down ...so I still put us similar to eartly 2000 and mid 2007 in terms of this here now.
BUT - One we get to say Aug-Sept 2024 its likely this support will be removed, as there will be COSTS (I want to think this through more before predicting those costs) ...certainly buy late 2024 ... to then I predict
- 2025-2026 will be FUGLY in real world economy AND stocks...as we 'catchup' and the CB/Govt try to get the bad out the way In 1st year of 4 year cycle.
^THIS all assume many things ..in markets..that no black swan arises..and the RISK of Black swan is part of COSTS I just mentioned due to this historic level of 'meddling' in natural order ..beyond then now normal levels of insane meddling that is.
^this is important post .but I don't like to say it videos.
Yeah ..also ..I think that is why that A/D chart if so important ..simple.
- most of time it doesn't matter and move up, and with price
- a lot of people now ignore A/D line because of this and says it not predictive
- but 'we will see' ..as per what I marked.
I believe it is showing you TWO things -
1. Is classic TA - that smart money see's trouble..and is selling it but then hiding in the hot sectors (AI-tech area and some other) .. but
2. CB/Govt LQ has to go somewhere...so hot sectors go supernova and are enough to push indexes up to cause the negative divergences...
This means there is enough insiders/smart money knowing what's coming aka 2000, 2007 ...I don't believe u would see this effect in modern market post 2009 ( it's been vertical A/D since then.) UNLESS there was significant distrubition by smart money ...we would instead just see major ATH and a somewhat weaker A/D line ...but this is a very pronounced NEg div in face of massive LQ ... so to me, that is FAR more significant ..... hence, once the LQ is ended ...u get the drill ... unless of course CB LQ is permanent but its never been in past ... because there is a COST
- dynfunction/ distortion of credit markets ..a complex discussion..but smart people there see the spigot and play it ..its criminal really of course..its not 'investment' then but 'insider trade'
- foreign players and CB counter th e move by fear of longer term ..and as we now started ...selling US asset s...so then CB has to keep increasing the LQ ...to point where RISK of 'total loss of confidence' is $ asset s..we are CLOSE to this pint the END GAME ..and don't believe we are there THIS cycle ..and that CB will risk that...so this is main limit ....
If this was iv - v as I had ..then on Comp V is done ..and its going to lead a 'retracement' ...then spx ..then dow looks like.
ALT is NOW 4...then 5 up to come ..and easier on Davidson Fractals (DF)( I'm rebranding LOL ..to avoid the trigger word 'waves')
- use 14000 on COMP ..which that last big gap up ... if its 4 its can't go into that...
^this is how DF is totally different to EW ... I have precise numbers for key pivots not subjective opinion....it's not predictive ...but it at least cuts down the number of setups ..and then use the signals/model to give odds of those fewer setups...not rocket science, but most don't seem to grasp this idea.
AND if so..that's pretty sneaky and stealthy.
IT follows on the chart I posted last night..I've held that one back for long while to confirm with current up move seeing yet another negative A/D divergences.
SO I think we are getting a fascinating sort of COMBO of 2000 & 2007 here... with a tech bubble.. I was working in it in 2000. .. that was based around internet, this one around AI ..... and the 2007 collapse which was based around 'virtuous to vicious' cycle or simply a 'credit bubble bursting' .... this is different in my view though, its one degree higher but that a topic of one of those longer video/podcasts....but does NOT mean that tI expect similar stock market outcomes ...this is just the underlying CONTEXT ....I will explain this more in time ...if anything ..as we're seeing
- it likely. will SLOW it ALL DOWN ..as the SHEER PANIC of CB's leads to what were' seeing ..even bigger 'saves' ... and also...because like a large tidal wave..it take more Time for the 'water' to gather first out ...before it rushes in ... what those in systems physics would call momentum.
- THEN we have to add the K-Spring CONTEXT of REFLATION unlike 2000 & 2007.
I must admit, I am more and more looking out to 2030 to a hyper inflationary event that is the final act of this show...but one step at time.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/youtube-files-biden-white-house-dictated-censorship-demands-under-misinformation-canard
Yes, but it wasn't really just that Govt control the information flow, its that
- the Govt isn't the Govt and arre owned by Blackrock and others and doing Pharma bidding
- corrupted Science into $cience as a result
- when people if ever understand this, they won't ever trust any real science again..as I pointed out at time ..and was banned by youtuvebe for saying just this !!! ..Orwell laughed and rolled in his grave I believe.
This was a modern day Milligram Experiment on whole population - to see who would default to 'I believe the authority figures' rather than 'I will think for myself and although I don't understand the science, I know not to trust sources who have lied to me many times in the past'.
As those who've followed me for 20 years+_ know, I've warned this would happen ..and preached on it ... in support of real science over the $science ...but nothing can stop the PTB ..they are all powerful and control most minds as I've also said for 20 years ... they aren't going to stop now are they? after such success.
Wed Nov 29th -
Thread slowing down so I'll start a NEW THREAD for DEC!
We are in Key DECISION Wndow now into end of week and early next week on
- Bonds. TNX just flirted with break of that key support area
- DOllar ..I did'nt have time to post chart but I've got great pattern setup there..shd be bottoming now in this period
- Stocks ...today is first real sign ..failed gap up ...unless it reverses to new highs by the close
As said I think the EOM, EOW in our current setups is going to be informative finally on what type of CB LQ/InstaQE effect we get here compared to past.
TBD
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODk5NDE4Ml8yMjQ3NDA3Ng
HEADS UP - Starting to see some MASSIVE WARNINGS today
- Call buying is Highest in a DECADE except for near peak of March 2022 rally which was similar to this one
- Credit model showing some very high odds sells - and trending to extreme's if we continue up that have been 'very dangerous' for Risk in market historically.
Today - yes, this looks tentatively like a terminal 5th ... cd be ED or other ...on spx/comp anyway ..so I'm looking for 'more of the same' into EOM/W ...and eventually a sharp drop.
Uh-huh but it looks corrective off todays opening gap up ...it depends on tomorrow..I would 'guess' ( not really but u know what I mean.) .we see some up down volatility pick up here ..into end of week ..but I am looking for this to terminate into a 'surprise' fast persistent drop ..that is atypical .....if its more choppy/backsweepy...it might be something more.
I think tomorrow and Friday are TWO of most important sessions for long time ..then likely Mon-wed next week ..its likely going to give me first real read on Swing/IT setup since the CB InstaQE LQ
HEADS UP - I believe CALL BUYING is CLOSE to RECORD
Put buying is hiding this ..so on CBOE ratio is not showing it ..but ISEE data
and other data is showing close to historical levels and rate of change of call buying.
Does this matter? no yet ...were in CB LQ-InstaQE forced upmove-ville ...but, down the road ...it has always mattered ..except in 1999 ....then the 'its mattered' got delated by 6 months ...I don't believe this is good data point to compare...dot-com=AI bubble sure...but nothing else matches.
CURRENT Swing/IT up. move
- My 'best guess' is still the same ( I think? ):
1. Making some sort of swing top into Friday/early next week then
2. Some sort of retracement drop then
3. One final up move in 'Xmas rally'
No idea of exact levels of any of it YET .. but the general idea was for Comp to a little stronger than dow or spx ..and for other indexes like Russell to have topped already on this current swing up.
- BUT - ...RISK is rising rapidly again ...so there a few 'disclaimers' to this that we need to watch ...not suitable for quick comment but cover in next update.
TNX - USD - CRB ...all way more complicated ..so not touching that for a quick comment ..but dollar I do believe will bottom next 1-2 weeks 'ish then take off in strong up move.
HEADS UP - Substack Informed me of MAJOR UPGRADE to video platform ..
It look quite interesting .. and I will hopefully at weekend have time to see I f I can incorporate new features ... I think it will be useful for 'you' the listener more than for. me such as
- AI generated transcripts.( these aren't perfect but they are useful)
- auto gendered pod-cast ( it tend to do charts but I have thought about podcast for my longer 'chat' stuff ..and I have some 'guests' who I have been discussing adding to my 'stuff' )
- pay wall for original content in videos' - NO I don't intend to charge for now - it maybe useful only to protect certain content If I decide to show more of the proprietary model and work ...to copyright and avoid people posting it all over ht place as happened to me ALOT in early 2000's and why went to private blog ... this would only matter if I decided to 'promote' my work ..which I don't ... and haven't ..but might ...I tend to think 'why I am doing this' start of each yea r....I have always blogged mostly as said for my own 'sanity check' ..I've been very good for me ... but ..see below.
There probably some other stuff In there ..will take a look ...I use Snagit currently which isn't great.... if the video recording platform is more seamless ...I'd swap to it.
YEAh - so ALSO HEADS UP - 2023 has been a crazy year for me stress wise due to family 'stuff' ...probablty the most stress 8 months of my life ..its a little better right now. I took a job that pays well and is 'fun' for me in this period as well, because it helps my READ of markets/economy ( even more than I hoped, but I can't say too much..I'll just say due to 'contact network' into 'what's really going on' ) ....and isn't too energy draining but it is time consuming a bit ...though into 2024 I think less so now I've learnt most of the property manager job ....So
- I would LIKE to think ..ha ha ..best laid plans etc ..that 2024 will afford me a lot less stress and time /energy to get back to my passions -
- markets/economy - I don't really want to deal with paid subscribers, promoting etc ...OTH I see that if I wanted to ..I could likely build a pretty big subscriber base ..and leverage it for other things ...of course, they I ask 'why do that' ..I'll be honest.. it just to worth it for me ..unless I could make a lot of $ ...making small amounts is pointless to me not meaning to sound glib ... but If I could make 100K + then I could free up time ..to do OTHER projects ....bt its kinda against my nature to ask for $ for information /market stuff ...so if I did..I'd rather do it by having a large base and asking for small amounts ..than the crazy to me amount people ask for their makret/traidng signals ... also, I'd want to run a model portfolio or trackable timing model to be tracked ...its all TIME .
Really I'm More interested just expanding the experiment I did with YouTube videos and this but also other subjects ...and brining in friends of mine - yep more TIME! ...and I have to manage myself with my autoimmune etc ....though I think I am able to do more and more and keep getting better and better ..so I am looking more ahead to next 10-20 years and what I want to focus on / accomplish and get starting .getting too old to say 'ill do that down the road'... 56 ...though probably more like most 40 y/0 age wise...
- so my obsession with health and exercise is one big part I want to do more
- and same with 'balance' - as I see it ..mind/body/'spirit' if u like
- mental health wrapped up in all this
I've got some backers and encouragers for all this as well ....
Its not a 'race' but I would like to expand on what I experimented with ..just do it better LOL... I learnt a lot doing what I did ...the interviews, personal video's ...but want to take it next few steps.
Basically - I'd like to create a more 'professional'. for want of better word ..'portal' for aLL my 'stuff' ...so it's not just Mish - mash ... but as I say ...its been tough to do much in 2023....but I am trying to think on/plan this for 2024... if the 'Gods' allow...If not - oh well! I control northing I know that :-)
Perhaps I can get myself cloned or AI version who can do all this for me? :-)
Tue Nov 28th
Meh - but meh is important at this point as gone over..lets see where we end today.
I saw this data, its backward looking for isn't real time like my LQ model, but, its damning confirmation by a different method ..as if we needed it! of CB liquidity injections ..they are playing a crazy game here for sure.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-qt-doing-no-wonder-stocks-are-rallying
FIRST SIGNS- LQ to PRICe divergergence ... LQ still rising..slowly ( it too is likely a feedback effect not more CB ...only that 4 sigma spikes are CB) ... and price now significantly lagging ..surpirsng as just said below in thie EOM period here...too early to be sure..will be clearer by EOM and EOW
OT - 'ish
If I ever want to remind myself that '99.9%' of everything I've ever read is BS ...then I search Kratom ..and start reading LOL ... wow, even crazier is that is banned in UK ..and try to ban it here.
In my long search for HELP with my medical issue starting aged 11 .. not one doctor of scores I saw until age 45 helped me .. and only medication that helped me was Prednisone ..but gave me pre-diabetes, chronic gastritis and depression within 2 years ... and stopped helping.
Kratom is the ONLY thing I've found on that long journey that works as well - and doesn't have ANY negative effects for me ... only positive ...and has't lost effectiveness. I tried at LEAST 500 drugs/substances ... it's th eONLY one ..think about that.
Then I go read what Pharma/Medical say - paraphrased 'it crazy dangerous and should be banned ...and it doesn't work because we haven't run any studies' ...shocking eh? LMFAO
Look, a lot of things are 'addictive' - sugar, caffeine and sex ...but I won't be giving them up either :-). ...yes, it's mildly addictive at about equivalence to that ...but mostly because it DOES WORK as 'they' know full well - hence their desire to ban it, and demonize it ...its always about $$ and NOT about the well being/health of the 'farm animals' as that's the reality - they farm humans and its incredibly profitable ...they farmed them with drugs that don't mostly work, NOW they are making everyone sick and then selling them more 'stuff' - great business model, and look around every city at all the new shiny buildings ...all medical complex - but they are TRUTH aND ETHICALLY BANKRUPT on level of the Devil ! LOL
Earliest learnt truth - DOSE determines the POISON ...too much water, or salt can kill you.
Kratom at doses MOST people take how no short term negatives ...long term harder to say..but evidence is not there either. It DOES however have amazing positives for those us living.( or 'living dead' ) with severe migraines daily, chronic health /pain and other ...
BUT - of course ...people with addictive personalities will abuse it ..er, as they are ADDICTS ...that is their issue. Funny we ignore alcohol and now weed ( which is useless compared to Kratom BTW for practical daily living pain management and anxiety/depression which Katom is great for ) ....
But OF COURSE its helps to be SMART how to use it ..I've learned a lot last 2 years... through my ow trial and error ...sadly, because 99.9% of what I read is 'narrative propaganda' as per usual.
Translate this point to 'markets' the 'economy' or most other issue these days..
- we have gone from 'bad information' to 'manufactured narratives' ...the former was excusable human limitations, the later is 'evil' and mass mind control ...now add AI into this and the Matrix dumbing down and clubbing down and Pharma mind/body corruption of mass and its ain't a pretty direction to me... its almost impossible to 'help' people, as 99.9% are as result incapable of 'listening' or comprehending outside of the farming system.
Oh - I have bad migraine today..from too much turkey I ate last night ..that's why I mention it ..
If we're going with 'flat iv' ..then today is start V up ....so I think it's quite important how weak/strong we close today..and action tomorrow ...as I've discussed ( the RELATIVE indicator in normalizing 'retail chase' phase)
Honestly, it's hard to resist the Matrix as the polls I showed .... I am VERY interest to see the AAII and more the NAIIM poll ..I noticed a signal there that has been gold on backtest for years ... it would be crazy to get that signal here...but I would not be surprised given what I'm seeing ... call me very keen observer here :-)
ALSO -! last 2 days of month and 1st into end week and seasonal strength - so if we don't take off to upside into end of week its strong confirmation of exhaustion ...we literally have seen no selling since the LQ injection ... this is. a very extreme price move as result ... as I've said ..the TELL on the NATURAL market comes later...not during an CB FORCED UP move.
SOME WEAKNESS here is informative ..but its the move into the cLOSE that is key as said
- if we rally again...likely is V
- if we drop again...hmmm...that wd be 'surprising' and likely signal the next Lifecycle change .... confirmed if we then drop harder tomorrow...then watch bonds and dollar as well.. moot until I see then discuss
I say its iv ..now v ..as pattern off AM LOW is impulsive ....
btm line - we're at a critical decision window tue-fri this week on bonds stock dollar... looking for new data and signals here ..and to see how close we are to normalization...LQ STILL hasn't dropped ...so as per data I posted from article the CB are trying to play both sides
- QT but shorter term 'QE" via LQ methods ...NET NET that have been JUICING in 2023 as multiple data perspectives show ( mine, and ones in articles)
So, WTF are they trying to do? ...answers on postcard LOL
I'm thinking about this ...I keep coming back to TIMING .....there is no doubt they are trying to TIME SOMETHING .. the real question is what ? and why? .. I hate to say its political for Nov 2024...but seem the obvious answer...try to lag it out to there whilst achieving goal of getting rates sky high ! but without killing stocks..YET...post Nov 2024 is whole other ball game I believe ...re: my 2007 analogy.
Interesting times ... and I love that ... I love the challenge ..but this is pretty nuts...and that's on a 1990 to 2023 'normalized curve' of nuttiness :-)
Darkest before the Dawn? then Brightest before the Night?
Matrix output is so Bright right now I've got to wear shades just to read it !!! :-)
yikes!
Week Ending Bulls Bears
11/24/23 70% 17%
11/17/23 60% 27%
11/10/23 48% 35%
11/03/23 68% 20%
10/27/23 28% 56%
GAPS - SIX to SEVEN OPEN on Q's and SPX
To say that's unusual ..well, add in cycle position and its absurd and purely due to LQ as predicted.
This 'house of gap' ( cards!) ..will be paid back eventually once CB stops the LQ faucet.
I also thought friday Imbalance Data was an ERROR - so I didn't mention it ..but ..it might not be...I'll wait to monday AM to be sure ...but 99% it isn't because multi vendor data and timeframe checks are same - across multi instruments ..so
- lets assume its correct - Um, then HOLY MOTHER of IMBALANCE spike ...maybe weird friday trading has effect? I checked...but doesn't appear case either
btm line - If it see ONE more of thee spikes next week - I am going to call it - that we're going to get a significant drop ... we MAY already have enough accumulation but we need LQ to at least drop a bit ..hasn't so far which is shocking CB systemic support as discussed at length
This will give u an idea but not full data/take ...as only one timeframe ..its a strong single when appears on all and it DOES and both SPX and NDX
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODk3Njg5NV8yMjQ1NDYzMg
The ratio of bulls to bear, the absolute number of bears and the 4 week moving averages of both are as extreme retail bullishness to extreme retail lack of bearishness as i've EVER seen ...maybe seasonality some effect and I don' have data kept - I will wait to compare to other polls I like less AAII for example ..but if confirmed .. DOUBLE YIKES ... IF LQ is ever removed, retail will be 3rd time holding the bag here in last 12-18 months...got to be a record.
Thur Nov 16 - Starting to see some patterns/setup on Bonds
We will see - but I see a fractal ..it suggests this is indeed 4 of 5 as I've been saying ..but ONE smaller DEGREE than the previous 4th wave ..the pattern match is very high ..but need a few more steps such as next
- slow chop here ..slight down next few sessions but holding key support ( I'll check but around 44 I think)
- then grind up and down for a week
- then swing up - that will be A down B up ...then C down to finish 4 of 5
- this would all take a while..when I have time ..and a working computer! I will map it out and show chart..assuming price continue to fit.
NOW - it could also be complete to upside ..and 1 down..if we break that key support and impulse into 1.2.3 ..... but its lower odds on the model of now.
FOr sure ..the CB flood HEROIN or LQ or whatever term u want to FLOODING THROUGH the SYSTEM ...producing buying in bonds ...selling in dollar ...buying in stocks...drop in commodities ..this is how its worked during all of these CB systemic interventions since 2007 ...I can't say before ....but definitely 100% time since ... as to why ..how long u got ! and its complex ..I've tried to go over this many times ..but doesn't really matter why in terms of our job :-)
The main issue is it produce MARKET DISTORTIONs through lack of 'natural price discovery' - bonds u now see correcting that when QE was removed ( a form of this ...CB has these others tool like LQ for immediate support, QE was the long term support version ).
It also means we can't tell how much 'real buying or selling' is going on - that's what I mean by 'simulaton' or 'price fixing' - LQ or QE both 'almost instantly move price' a certain amount artificially '(not throughly price discovery of buyers/sellers) .... I used to say, imagine a bunch of people haggling over price of house in your street ..then comes a buyer with Trillions of $ and who says 'ill pay 200K for that 100K house ' ....that is basically what happens, the 'asset value is instantly changed/distorted' ( to be fair in QE it takes months, with LQ is take minutes ) ..that's the diff'.
I can try to 'guess' based off now many historical examples ...both for LQ and QE ..and worked pretty well but though here at moment it takes a bit of time.
LET me SUM all this UP - Its freakin' hard to 'call/predict' the. market here ...had 3 month of easy when CB off the tape ..this is how it goes at moment ... but I still try ..because that's how u can learn something new ... my 'best guess' is still
- wave 5 'ish all over the place in end of 2023 ..then shit hits the fan in new year.
FYI - COMP/Q finally getting some imbalance buy spikes - taken a while, SPX already as said has few ... hasn't mattered YET but definitely accumulating now ...
If Comp takes out AM lows, and drops under 14000 I think we have the first 'change' and likely a shorter LAG than usual ...more normal is it holds and we grind up longer.
KEY SUPPORT TNX 43 ...but as said, this is distorted due the CB LQ.. we need to remove that at some point..usually take a few weeks to 2 month ...to get 'real price' ..so this is hard part..but I'd still expect 43 to hold if its 4 ... below that odds increases 5 completed with the CB basically ending QT and doing short term QE via LQ ...likely stop gap though..its always temporary.
SEE -
- NOV 2022 & MARCH 2023
for almost identical drop fractals and model signals to current drop.
NOW if this is 'for real' reversal ..we accelerate down next few sessions below 43.5 ..otherwise, these are the highest odds '4' type setups only 1 Degree smaller this time overall
DOLLAR - in both of those was also similar to now - and again dollar drop here looks 1 degree less but same fractal.
Its insane it comes to this . essentially a computer simulation of patterns across all markets..but thart's basically what it constantly shows..no other possibly exlplaination for these patterns ... humans don't cause this ...we now just get brief period when 'natural patterns' occur as recently and its piece of cake to model and call every move as I did ...shame ..but have to deal with our simulated realty ! ..this is now firmly extended to matrix output and all 'data' ..all just maniplations/agenda/narratives
Example I have access to hard data today on house prices in Arizona - its' SHOCKING ..and I know it's correct but I can't say too much as not my data or allowed to say.... but from my job ..its so far from 'public data' its just a joke ..and same with 'inflation' and jobs and 'economy' and medical and well everything ..but once cat was out the bag the 99.9% of people can't challenge data ...we would end up here in Fake reality - as I predicted bTW 30 years ago and ranted about ever since..was I right or was I right ? yep, I was right...as its simple logic - and 99% STILL don't know it!
The BIG QUESTION - how long can this charade be kept going? ..a long time it for sure..but I have to think we at least see 'some reality' seep into stocks ..it has already, with all the LQ we should be at ATH ...but not.
OTHER IS - is this all 'just politics' or is there a GRAND PLAN ... I know there is, and I know the end game and goals..but the shorter term is so hard to predict now given how extreme the lengths are to keep this charade afloat .... it's going to be. FASCINATING ... post Nov 2024 I'm certain they end the game for a while at least.
And not to get into the complexity of my attempt it model all this BUT
- I'd like to say I can just wait for LQ to RTM or RTE ( it always has in past except 2009)
- but its not that simple due to the LAG as i've said and effect on shorts and market sentiments ..etc the 'shockwave and EMP' effects
- so its always more of a 'judgement' than a 'model' for these events.
I said in 2021 ..I fear we will see more and more int his period - 2 this year! is very rare ..as I feel CB are trying to TIME everything to some plan ...I've said this for long time ...and its increasingly obvious I am correct... ALAS I don't know what that timing/plan is ..its guessing ... Id' say ..they want the worst POST NOv 2024? ... or plan to let it collapse in 2024 giving no time to react .. other events will give us clues here ... I wish TA '/,models could but they can't due to out environemtn of system instability
TUe Nov 14 - Not enough ...full blown upside CB riot Wahoo!
3rd wave up it is
CB obviously have a plan they are following in 2023 ..I have no idea what it is ! seems insane to me ..but what is new!!
FYI collected TWO more Imbalance SPIKES today ..were' accumulating alot now ...i'd say usually this would be enough said to top us out ..but this is FAR from normal .as in 4-5 sigma! so its fascinating to see how it plays out in such extremes ....maybe I can learn/add something in model for future but as said n ever been able to in past ... hope springs eternal :-)
If today gap is ever closed ..it is high odds a swing reversal down at minimum ..shd be off to infinite upside wave 3 on back of everything or something is 'wrong' big time.
UTOPIA is reached
- xmas period positive seasonality
- CB historic upward simulation or LQ Shockwave /EMP whatever u want to call it
- Matrix utopia news narrative (I talked about it yesterday)
- emotional market jumping on Matrix every fake word
Against this - reality going over a cliff ..and market technically falling apart and close to major resistance ( summer highs)
As I said, I have no idea when these CB events occur ... I watch and try to see if things can be modeled ...no idea yet ... grab the popcorn though it will be interesting! ..bonds/dollar is still place to look for me.
IF both TNX and USD don't sell off dramatically here ...it will prove to be emotional 4th wave lows. on TNX and 2 or B on dollar
I suppose if it bounce here ( tNX ) it could be 1 down ..5 wave ..then 2 up ..but ..we will see.
Note as I said how the Matrix provided the fake narritive ( as I said learned from Covid) - the CPI LOL .. fake data every day ... totally detached from reality ..but it worked during massive LQ injections and on ST ...for which clearly there is plan afoot since that LQ EMP.
My guess is a final CB controlled blow off to clear the decks...then eventually an equally fast down move leaving everyone high and dry again ...rinse repeat ..no idea how high, they control all of this as shown yet again right here.
CB havne't drained ANY LQ since that injection LMFAO! .. they seem intent on us breaking everything here ... its as usual impossible as I've said to predict ..but this would suggest we are going vertically to new ATH ..well, we will ..unless they drain ..no sign of it yet.
They are PUMPING like their life depended on it - err well, I guess it kinda does
They are PUMPING like there's no tomorrow - tomorrow will always come, but at what costs
Yes as I've already said ..this is all amazing similar to my data and experience of 2007..
MOn Nov 13 -
I'm really busy this AM ..so not sure on posts todays ..but I shd get some 'answers' today/tomorrow on near term patterns ...hoping anyway! the setup shd be a big give away reaction right here now.
HEADS UP - the close saw another BIG IMBALANCE BUY SpiKE , these accumulate selling pressure eventually to reversals ..its hard to say how much is needed, charts speak the best but I can't post currently..see recently posted charts for idea . this is on SPX not the comp...but it definitely was significant .... I haven't ever studied but I am going to guess that coming last hours is extra significant ... I cd be wrong .... but this is first really significant warning sign on current swing up ... we shall see .. I suspect we still need more ( I said this AM)...but odds of a downward swing reversal just increased on my imbalance model at least ..nothing else will work yet to to the LQ EMP effect on going ..likely need another week for that to subside or more.
I Ran a BACKTEST - In the last 12 months, the only time a spike of this size did NOT LEads to Swing topping action was June 12th .... which was during sort of 3rd wave up of that swing up - there is 8 Data point ( examples) so 7 of 8 in 12 month led to swing topping out ...it wasn't necessarily the exact price/time of top but close.... when I can post chart I will and mark it up.
so TUE now takes on more importance as 'next step ' of read.
HUGE RED FLAG in the 'xmas rally' period - Matrix PIMPING HARD and hiding/lying by omissions/and lying on all data
then I see tons of these sort of Narratives
MarketWatch: "Don’t rule out a Bill Clinton-style 1990s boom for the economy, UBS says"
DATA - I don't believe ANY oF IT ...I'm seeing Orwellian ^ N outright lies on it all the time now..its pointless to use any public domain 'data' ... I can see from my real world data that this is 100% true alas .. 'they' have seen how effective outright lies using 'data' was with COVID and expanded to all so called 'economic data' ...this is what we must deal with now.
fyi one of many similar I've being seeing 'all of a sudden' - what a crazy coincidence of timing eh? ..it would be one thing if it was just someones idiotic 'opinion' ..but I'm certain this is a narrative play as too stupid and too many on Matrix all of sudden.
FYI My new desktop will be arriving wed or thur so 'they' say.. if it does..it will take me 2-3 days to setup my trading platform and video making setup etc ... so if goes to plan I can make video update next weekend ! I could try on my laptop but it's really. painful ..so I'll just wait.
Thanks Mark
So on ST today - ( read notes previous posT)
- Comp I'm using 13725 as key level
- if gets below that..then the AM low holding or breaking wd be very significant for next few sessions
* most likely we just churn /grind sideways in days ranges if my 'guess'
Ranging so far ... now back on 'last hour watch' for clues
Got a minute - basically, the waves are very clear and there's only a few 'legal' possibilities assuming waves continue to be legit as for months ...
- so either we break up in a 3rd massive Impulse type wave this week OR
- we top out
Today into tomorrow will be huge tell ...as no excuse to hold back ..so I'm looking to see if we do the 'threats of upside ' move but end up churning or even drop back ...
the 5 Day held back key Real $ data which makes it next to useless now ..like all key data is removed from us ..suggests we have flipped and shorts have all covered ..but I can't see how far the other way we've gone for another 5+ days ...so that's why lagged data is useless for real time calls - I can only use my propriatarty signals ..which is exactly why I have them, can't be easily messed with ! ..they suggest we have more 'work to do' on sucking in retail here.
Bonds - like wise like clues ..but I'm strongly leaning still in '4' of final 5th ... model points this way with likely more time/work to do there.
FRI - Nov 10th - getting EERILY SIMILAR isn't it! if u know what I mean.
* so if u get to what I refer - we will spend the next 2-5 sessions chopping up and down in range..before starting a big pullback.
FYI - see comments in Last Video chat ... didn't also post here as very long post.
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/so-bad-its-good-not-on-my-data/comments
Well, Duh! :-)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-u-s-credit-rating-to-negative-from-stable-4ede1b9b
Very Clear WAVES again - I love it ! long may it continue ...we will see
Last 2 hours are different - running up wave ...this looks to me like 'breathless buying' due to FOMO ...and assuming its not insiders ..it will be close to another top here.
LOL - they are getting so worried about a Credit CRUNCH ..pretneding yesterdays low LQ Bond auction was due to some attack? WTF seriously ... this is getting silly ..they won't be able to duct take this into Nov 24 ...so surely wd be better to lets things fall apart early 2024 then try to ramp it back by Nov. .. ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/icbc-hack-blamed-poor-treasury-liquidity-higher-vol-will-keep-rallies-short-lived
AND EVEN IF this were true ..which I'm sure its not ..it would ADVERSIZE a Way for Foreign enemies to CRIPPLE the US ...
The REAL reason is simple
- without constant QE ...markets are adjusting to 'fair market value' - were about there now.
- BUT also China-Russia et al finally seem reading to collapse our house of cards ...so removing thier LQ ..the bond market is becoming ILLIQUID ... and its of course a VICIOUS CYCLE ..since 'other buyers' don't want to buy in an illiquid strong trending markets against them no matter 2 years of endless 'buy' calls from the Matrix .... it will need an OBVIOUS TREND CHANGE and Liquidity returning ... how will that happens? only way is to end QT and NEW QE ..and stock market right now has priced that in ...but they will be WRONG..at least for now. and also on the SCALE of it when it does come ..likely end of 2024.
Tough Call ST - but Comp still in minor 5 up ..lielly done i..ii.iii.now iv(* actually probably still iii it's extending) then v up today.then shd start to weaken .... Dow weakest ..and spx in middle as mix .. just what I see and today shd be strongest up day for while into next week being choppier grind sideways in range as retail pile in ( and believe me they are!)
OK THAT now looks like iii done(* in (5) of iii..) .then.in iv(next hour or so) ... so given that...probably we will complete v before the close and get a drop ..so maybe less of trend up day and more of a potential reversal from there ..bve interesting to see here
Extended to max iii on Comp - suggests to me ..massive 'piling in' - I will need to see EOD data to see if I'm right ..but that's my tape read
- so will likely be able to grind. us up into the close now
BTm line - today shd be trend up day's on comp ...but turn choppy this afternoon and chance of selling late. dow spx bit weaker as I went over ...its important to try to see these pattern and if they play out to start to get read 'post shockwave'.
AS or MORE important is my monitoring the DATA and model in response for confirming...and also TNX /DOLLAR ..they are might tricky right here...need to see next week to get better read on them which will help massively.
ALSO _ we got a ST imbalance BUY near close yesterday iu.e. there was some ST panic to the selling ... that alwats 100% gets the old 'gap up Revere grinder' like today in this environment - check ... when I next update the imbalance signals u will see it ..BUT it wasn't a signal on bigger scale ...so short term effect only ...I think we will need 1 or 2 more big imbalance spikes of 'chase the breakout' type next week to get a swing high ..and that fits with prior LQ Shockwaves ...... UNLESS this as said if going to get Smart money Xmas rally sponsorship ..and not LQ Drain to even RTM ... tbd
BUT !! - probable is the pattern is a 'complex corrective now' with LQ SKEW ..so ..I will keep eye likely to be difference ..etc
Assuming we don't get another historic intevention - and I have to always give that disclaimer...last week shd show u why
- then ST Model will the first to start of 'normalize' and work again ..once I see that I will know I can begin to trust signals again after the shockwave/EMP ....and gradually up the time-frames to call them.
Another gap up LMFAO - anyone counting!! 'totally normal right' - not proof of CB ALGO LQ :-)
USD I took good look last night - its tricky ..but..I do believe we have a pattern that will ultimately lead to a massive surge UP in DOLLAR ... timing is tricky
TNX - bonds also getting lots GAPS ..and back and forth ..but again ..this looks on the model leaning to 4th wave of 5 ..and not quite done as I've said...but its hard again to time it ..will know once it breaks either way though.
REAL$ data - CONFIRMED the LAG effect...of rough 5 days being withheld OR REPORTED ..I can't say buts it 100% FACT now .... I doubly checked last night again last year data...that is really obnoxious and same as i've seen over years to other key data like put/calls ..I won't go over it ll ..but anything 'too helpful and obvios' is removed or messed with. But now I just adjust for lag but removes its 'real time' use.
Mon Nov 27th
I posted a 'lifecycle of CB LQ Injections' ( short term QE if u like) and said u either get 'exhaustion' in the Lag/normalization phase or continue to surge .....this is looking like exhaustion unless it takes off hard tue or wed ...the data is accumulating to exhaustion ..
^THIS is our as I went over FIRST DATa PONT regarding the 'natural market' versus the 'forced move' summation ... its VERY IMPORTANT .... I am leaning, and its early..and I cd be wrong if we do NOT take off tue or wed...that we infact seeing another - distribution setup rather than accumulation setup by smart money ...this is the major determinant of how this plays out over the IT longer timeframe.
BOnds- back filling and held 45.5 ... so longer pattern and within the expected setup I went over.
Dollar - also ... sterling stronger bounce.
There is not much I can add until more data comes in this week and lets me start making a call on this.
FRACTAL setups is as CRYSTAL CLEAR to me as its ever going to get on literally ALL timeframes here ,...In terms of the broad market (and ignoring indexes specifics)
- VERY HIGH ODDS the 'market' is going to make its final 5th of 5th of 5th Cycle, PRimary, secular and Super cycle tOP in the NEXT 2-4 WEEKS!
Personally, I find this VERY EXCITING !!!!!!
- I am fascinated to see how everything will line up...play out.
And whilst I know 'things can vary- alt patterns' ..it would materially matter UNLESS the CB has lost it mind or hiding something so bad it delays it .with more LQ-Insta QE ...but I doubt it.
More on this during next month though I've covered it for LOOOONNGGGG TIMe ...andhere we are !!!!!
ANECDOTAL but I pay close attention for 20 years to it
- MATRIX OUTPUT is now in full UPOPIA MODE !
( goes along with the sentiment data I posted at weekend)
FRI Nov 2 -
TNX key to watch here now - on model, key is 45.5 above . we will either drop again back
to test key 43 support next week ...OR break above that then model put very high odds of a swing up ..and then we'll see 'what is what' in term of setups/pattern I've gone over ...ANd if it break the current CB induced euphoria wave.
DOllar dropping back today..but I also believe its starting to bottom as I went over..maybe need to go over pattern there more.
Stocks - meh..but I said, I favor were in end of 3'ish ..into 4 ...but its tough to be sure due to being in LQ normalization phase ( see previous post ) ...I will only be able to be Sure in highsight once ST model normalizes... next week will be much better tell.
ANCEDOTAL - but to bare in mind going into 2024 ... I know a lot of people who ..'who know people' etc ..with knowledge to get a read on
a. the REAL economy - not the Matrix fake one - I'd said a fair amount on that ..I will add when times allows... we are definitely in CB LQ 'pause' here ..but retail sector is first to be going over a cliff early 2024...I'll make that call now very confidently ...
b. It seems the CB has been coerced or other into getting Biden re-elected. They are supposed to be neutral in 12 month into election ..but this current LQ injection is blatant support of markets/economy to help Democrats ... it should be enough to get them called to account ..but I doubt it ...
c. I thought there is no way to hold the real economy collapse and start of market collapse in 2024 ..but I am wrong if the CB don't take this LQ (short term QE effectively) back ..no sign of it so far ....
Now on separate issue I covered extensively from before most even knew about it, been 100% right ..and now we are beginning to see real world effects i.e. the COVID bio-weapon courtesy of Fauci et al ...and the bio-weapon shots ( maybe 0.5% of them in certain batches according to my data/calc but though to be accurate due to suppression of science)
- its very clear from our friend/family/work circles that so far
a. The effects are 'not too bad' compared to worst case ..which is what I predicted, that this would be a slow moving attempt at moving 'all cause mortality curve to left' by 2030.
b. That certain effects are VERY clear - I'll tell you below so you can know, and hopefully look for solutions and help people you care about
1 - Widespread SHINGLES and EYE issue - my one long time friend who I tried very hard to help, wouldn't listen, got eye problem immediately from shots - they are now BLIND in one eye, they also have developed spinal issues so bad they can no longer hike ..progression.
My son's girlfriend has developed eye disturbances - her optician actually told her its known side effect of the shots ...so slow but gradual 'admission' coming. I hear from literally everyone about 'so and so has shingles or weird nerve issues'.
2. Drop in mental capacity - which I've discussed at length this was known from all study of mRNA on animals that induces prions .... this will be slow ..but it will eventually be planned disaster ...everyone I speak to has noticed the change in everyone ...most unaware of the 'why' ..they just say 'everyone is so angry and unstable' ..and I see clearly the drop in mental acuity...its beyond any doubt .. this is frightening longer term ...and I believe explains some of the drop in workforce and I hear ALOT - 'we cannot get or keep workers' .turn over rates are insane ...this is whole topic. and I think will be crises 2024+.
I have a lot more to say - but those two key points ... the workforce is 'shrinking' and also 'losing productive ability' - look for 'AI' to be floated as solution ...I think we are 4-5 years away from that...but they will need to 'create the crises' to then 'float the solution' ..its coming ..no doubt about it on my end ..they way they trotted out AI out of the blue yet its been available for a decade.
THXGIVING
Starting to see more patterns here..need to see more of it ..but rhymes are getting strong to 'road maps' i've gone over...none exactly fit ..but that never happens.
Wed Nov 22nd
Meh - grind .. I think TNX is likely as discussed turning back up here..Which shall see.
Call buying is going. nuts ..retail sentiment also .. as usual.
Not too much discuss here, so-
Happy Thanksgiving ... rest, relax, and don't get drawn into the Matrix - Divide Conquer hatefest
ALSO - 1st ST model 'sell' signal here since LQ went into next phase ( LAG-Normalizing) ...so we'll see if it generates any selling today and or Fri ... or still ignored..
ALSO I said likely in 'iv' last night ..I wd say givne todays grind up ..its
- now in 5 of iii ..and looks like ending diagonal forming ..in which case more grindf into the close..and then odds of drop increase sometime Fri ..I guess its half session .so maybe monday... THAT wd then be 'iv' ..but materally doesn' matter ....just matters for me to see if we are yet starting to normalze in the LQ phase.
Another Pattern on SPX/COmp I found from backtest
- when we get these rare 'mega vetical trajectories' and a certain dynamic pattern I'd have to show I can't put in words easily ..but have now then
- In cases where the market is 'strong' we will continue up for next 1-2 weeks to well above current prices
- but if we pause or pullback ...its a major sign that eventually we will fail without moving much higher..though..it can take a lot of tiME to play out ...
I think ^this is key pattern to watch for here .as we move into next 2 weeks ...and signals setups for pullback ..if they are 'overriden' and we power up ..then 'I am wrong' re: wave 5 ..and the CB LQ ploy has overpowered that for now. ..I think that is lower odds...than the alt - so I look for a pullback sometime next week rather than powering further up.
AH I just found a useful pattern on TNX ( bonds)
- Pattern is for NOVember to see BUYING of BONDs..(drop TNX) that then turns to some selling in December ..I believe this is what we are seeing again this year.
If I had to guess ..we are down A down of 4th of final 5th up ...A maybe not be done a need drop to 43 ( easy to use TNX) ... but I am now looking for a B wave UP ...now or by 1stweek Dec....likely compex...then C down into end of Dec/beg Jan ..then final 5 of 5 to 50-55 area...or OVERSHOOT spike depending on many thing tbd
ALT - is this is 1 down still of larger A and complete up cycle for now...similar to say CRB ..Ii still have to put it lower odds for n ow until patterns are broken/change - no sign of it YET.
Related ..dollar did spike up again today .as expcted..I don[t think it's made that correction low... but it will depend on whether LQ by CB's is going to stay high, RTM or RTE ...tbd
tue Nov 21st
Meh - churning ... now LQ appears to have peaked ..will be interesting to compare to the previous I posted on chart.
I think today was start of iv of v up ..of something ..1 or done very high odds tbd
Here - quick update in pink
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODk1ODY5M18yMjQzMzg2Ng
TNX /TLT look like they are going to bounce hard here soon ...UNLESS we get a surprise gap down through 43 on TNX ... if any bounce gets going here, I think it will be sustained/larger than we've seen for few weeks.
DOLLAR also looks like its finding support here now ...I'm not sure it will bounce much ..but shd stop dropping as fast
So ..I guess I could do a 'lifeycle' for the FORCED MOVED ..into NATURAL MOVE ..I'll do it next video's but in short
Phase 1 - LQ shockwave/EMP
- FORCED MOVE begins based on 4 sigma signal I showed
- price goes vertically up ..mostly gaps
- forget any other signals/TA/price setups ..doesn't matter..LQ in this phase=vertical price ( or REPRICE as I call it)
- UNTIL - LQ Peak signal I posted last night
Phase 2- Entering today ..LQ has peaked ( doesn't mean it drops )
- Now we get LAG as retail and other try to 'buy the shockwave'
- We begin to see 'system normalize' so model/signals/TA 'begin' to work ..starting at smallest timeframe ..my ST model has not yet normalized, usually take 1-3 days here..then for Swing a few weeks
- We can begin to Guage NATURAL MARKET POSITON by comparing to previous forced periods... i.e Summations of Natural + forced move here.
- Phase ends when Swing signals normalize..I'll guess sometime end of NEXT week
Phase 3- back to natural markets
Unknowns - cause/effect
- Does LQ 'stay high' OR is to MEAN REVERTED OR EXTREME REVERTED (see video but I shd explain this more on LQ 101 primer sometime )
- If LQ stays high...we will get an exhaustion type swing up
- LQ Mean reverts - will get the most 'natural move' whatever natural market is meant to do
- LQ Extreme reverts - we will get bunch of gaps down ..mirror down move as I showed on chart in 2022 example.
MON Nov 20 -
Weekend comment - covered quite a broad set of issues very fast...I will as said try to go deeper on each in time on separate video's as time allows.
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/into-uncharted-waters?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email#media-668c4cad-237b-4ba5-99ad-ebb4620a5a4b
today - no breadkown in bonds..which likely to be key ...
dollar - dropping ..yep
stocks - grinding with retail signals showing as expected massive piling in here.
LQ finally turned down today...now the LAG phase
This charts shows u many recent ones - some didn't tag the upper line ..ones that did has strong LQ pulses as now.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODk1MjM5NF8yMjQyNzEwMw
Sat - nov 18 - on My new computer now ..mostly setups just can't acces my old drives yet ...and need to setup video and microphone ..and recoding software..if I get it up this weekend I will do a video..WAY too much to cover now alas.
* OK didn't take long - I have setup so I can make some sort of video this weekend ..might be not so good sound/video ..but better than nought!
Fri Nov 17th - Grind grind grind A- typical
Hey, what happened to the November thread Mark! I forget ..deal with it :-) ...will try to remember for Dec..this one hasn't got too slow yet anyway.
Yep - grinders'ville
I believe. though TNX not breaking down is potentially sign of of confirming the pattern I mentioned ..too early to be sure , but a 'sign' is all one has in CB shockwave/EMP periods.
Not much else to add - the 5 day delay on Real$ data remains ...I shd see by mon-tue what happened from the last big gap up period ..I think I guess, I could be wrong
Got my new computer mostly setup ...but not for videoing yet..hopefully I can this weekend.
BEST GUESS -
- this will end up similar to Oct-Dec 2021 ..that Oct low was made easier, so just shift current move back 3-4 weeks to 2021 comparison - it then had similar vertical moon shot ( that wasn't LQ driven unlike this one).
My work computer is crap for charts but here' shows this until I get mine running-
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODk0NTAxOF8yMjQxODQ0MA
The 'election' next year is the most important is ALL AMERICAN HISTORY ..I will discuss this at some point ... if we stay the current course ..the EVENT/RESET will be earlier 2026-2030 then later 2030-2035
2024 is going to ANSWER ALOT of QUESTION I have - will there even be an election ? who will be 'allowed' to run ( if u understand my meaning) etc ..
- the PTB are GOING to have to SHOW tHEIR HAND in 2024 I believe
HEADS UP - Actually
- I need to some research/analysis because I see something important ..
- I'm going to look at the CRB-DOLLAR-GOLD .. I've got conflict and complex stuff I see here.
Short term wont' matter.but into 2024 is definitely will ..but here's my quick thoughts..It may change
- GOLD is topping here...and going to get a major correction..year or more
- DOLLAR ..its complex..but most likely .at least one more big up move ..and probably, that is also then a top...but I need to look at this more..I cd be wrong there.
- CRB - oh boy! .and this one is a 'um, we need to talk' ..I had not noticed that CRB did not drop ..with last big dollar run ... that TROubLE and more confirmation of reflation secular k-spring ...I think...we will get a bigger correction on CRB when dollar runs up...but then ..if dollar tops ..CRB will hold or take off again..
This matters - because this also feeds into bonds ..and agrees with my view bonds will have a strong floor this time when they finally top here... due to CRB/reflation
- basically..what I'm seeing here is another BOX ..its sort of the same box but extended ..
- if Dollar drops ..CRB rises and bonds stay high ..and kills economy OR
- if dollar rises ..LQ drains ..and kills assets
we have been oscillating up/down and nothing resolving here ..but it will eventually..work to do here ..
IMPORTANT - Also the DOLLAR is key
- the drop is both impulsive and corrective ..both will matter let me explain
- the drop is CORRECTIVE at the degree of correcting the big move up last few months
-...this is clear and I will when I get charts up on new computer go over this one clearly .its KEY
- its also 'impulsive' 'ish ..but not 'impulsive' as ewavers use it ..its just is showing 'emotion' if u like ... and its completely not humans, its 100% correlated tick for tick to bonds and stocks as its all SYSTEMIC ALGO driven ..that is 100% clear also.
So 'eventiually' dollar will form a low ... and then high odds get a big leg up - C or 3 up tbd ..UNLESS CB as said, keep creating LQ which i've just gone over,, i'ver never seen ..but its not impossible let keep that in mind and not box ourselves in with beaufitful theories ..they have just demonstrated here how 'insane/desperate/evil plan' they are.
somehow - all this is going to play out/line up with Bonds-stocks-dollar and that is FANTASTIC for me ..and its much easier to get read off 3 things than 1 ..and bonds especially have been easier to read.( tough right now ..but that is LQ EMP effect - temporary I hope)
HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM
I could be wrong ..but .I say what I see -
- I need to confirm data because I'm now VERY SUSPICIOUS of ALL DATA with so much manipulations of it ...BUT
- the imbalance data is fairly untouchable...but often needs to wait as real time is changing.
With those disclaimers ..it looks to me we are seeing MASSIVE CHASE-A_THON by RETAIL RIGHT here since the CPI 'mother of all gaps on top of mother of all gap-a-thons ' ..
If so, I look for use to follow the A-typical. pattern ... and suck in every last retail $ here..then reverse down hard to close at least some of the gaps below.
In more general tape read/thoughts/feel -
- this move up is 'pure emotion' - gaps gap gaps .'news' news news - rarely in my experience since 1997/8 is this 'foundational' i.e. the solid foundation for a new bull up leg..it IS typical of final legs up though ... the rare exceptions I can think of was 1999 though...there, the bull strike never broke as it already has here ... so I can't really think of an example of failure/then re-gaining bull traction like this ... so as I've said my view is
- UNLESS the CB intends to keep pumping LQ ... this will eventually. ( hard part ) FAIL over again ..and when it does, it will be symmetrical to the up move .
Can/Will the CB keep pumping LQ because 'we have to save systemic from collapse?' - I'll think on it ... short term obviously yes ... but we've never seen them
- do it longer at THIS STAGE ..this is very similar to 2007 as said, and then eventually they gave up ..planned? ...I'd say so.
Anything is possible I guess... I think were in one of the toughest to 'predict' period on stocks in history right here...but RISK is EASY to measure and is now surging back up to risk on long side right here versus downside.
DATA CONFIRMED - it's not FATAL YET ..but its trending that way.....
This is wave '5' final up wave as iv'e been tracking long time 4..then 5...and I said likely trunction on DOW .maybe spx ..minor new high comp .. but no structure due to the speed driven by CB LQ EMP ...so its hard to judge off pric e..so these signal might help ..
- its a question if we just keep grind up now ..accumulation ..into major top again or
- retrace ..then rinse repeat
..I have no view on this yet.
I know what I eventually expect to see across the models ..we don't have it yet..so I expect some slow down, long process to complete more than fast up down to complete .5...but its only a guess if CB reverse the LQ it could happen.
WED Nov 15 - To summarize: Proof of CB 'simulation' yet most refuse to see it
For ten+ years I've shown the proof
- the LQ signals ( I posted again start of this one)
- to watch for endless gaps up ..er, how many LOL ..must over over TEN now on Q's with NO CLOSURES .
- to watch for 'insane' price moves defying all TA and prediction ? forget it!
..I've shown this literally EVERY TIME as per that chart of LQ signals ...yet, the Matrix manages to run the narrative that its a free market LOL ... it's amazing how few people can see the clear and obvious truth no matter how much evidence you show if its counter to the Matrix narrative.. sound familiar ? :-)
HEADS UP - my judgement ..and as I've been saying since the CB intervened (sigh, yet again) ..and Always say ..I have no model for these periods ..so its based on experience
- I believe we are NOW seeing a HISTORIC FLIP to SPECULATIVE CALLS ...
..this may or may not mean anything short term ..but It will longer term if/when the CB stop pushing the markets up ( its as said not directed at stocks, its side effects of them provided liquidity to Bond and Credit markets ..as most cases ...the system is all linked..hence if u care to look ..the correlative moves in USD, and bonds ...are stronger than ever ..1+1=2 even if most don't want to see it.
This is likely some sort of 4th'ish wave today pullback ..then grind/move up in the LAG move in 5th ASSUMING LQ doesn't turn back up ..that is A-Typical MO ... and all I try to do in these cases is measure our path against all previous examples ..
So watch LQ - what's it doing? up up up! until THIS AM ...it MAY be starting or have reversed this AM .. I c an't 'predict' but I will be able to tell in a bit ...then 'how much of a LAG ' to price ..varies every time as also shown ..but consistent ...and a TELL as well.
I think it will be obvious here if/when the LQ is pulled and LAG ( chasers exhaust)
Meanwhile - TNX/TLT ..hmmm.
THUR Nov 9th -
First signs of imbalance building here ...often need a few more spikes and grind ..but this suggests we are fairly 'normal' for 4-5 Sigma Events LOL ... i.e. long sideways upward grinders with retail piling in a top of it ... then a pullback coming..often as said take long time.
Count UPdated - Nailed the down ..and bounce at 5th..but it was CB enahced SPEED wise - remains to be seen PRICE WISE.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODkxNjQ4N18yMjM4MDAxNQ
*Imbalance on Comp
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODkxNjQ5MF8yMjM4MDAzMw
* spx
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODkxNjQ5Ml8yMjM4MDAzNQ
The EASY part of the move off wave 5 completion is OVER -
- more upside will have to be EARNED here now...unless CB decide another historical intervention is necessary ..they might given we are going over a cliff - two in 5 month is a very bad sign!!! duh!
- cOst will either be Retail having to max themselves long again and or
- smart money buying ...I can't rule that out if they see a 'xmas rally play' ..but need to see proof ...they could just as well distribute into retail yet again as happened 3 month ago at top.
VERY Rare SELL Signal - credit based
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODkxNjUwM18yMjM4MDA0Ng
Short Term LQ model finally turned down last 2 days
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODkxNjQ5OF8yMjM4MDA0MQ
MASSIVE EXTREME Very Short Term imbalance spikes - see two on chart, they are RARE and usually signficant ...
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODkxNjQ5Nl8yMjM4MDAzOQ
Fri could be first real read on NEXT STEP here..espcially on bonds ...
HEADS UP - I think this is, or part of the answer to the 4-5 Sigma LQ Systemic Shockwave EMP attempt to prevent ceasing jump of liquidity ..makes sense ..so stocks effect was just side effect not the goal.
-
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-tumble-yield-surge-after-catastrophic-30y-auction-stops-biggest-tail-record-foreign
*Also seeing the wacky banking issues are accelerating ..we are heading for a total failure of the banks in 2024/5 ..with most banks being taken over by a few big CB proxies like BofA ... next step toward Global CB of course ...its coming, don't be fooled ..they can hide reality and fake it like currently for weeks/month hell even a year ...but just like every other time not forever ...though with election 2024 they will try of course.
IT appears more and more likely a Liquidity crises is emerging, hence last weeks Intervention ...it remains to be seen if that helps, or accelerates the problem - it can go either way, tbd
BTM LINE - we are following so far the script I laid out ...
either more 'grind' then a reaction drop or 'retracement' OR
- starts now
I don't see much more upside at likely here as said until either plays out.
WOW - we just got a near Record short term imbalance spike ...that means short term at least, odds favor a bigger pullback ... it is less meaningful on swing+ timaframe but can be significant there also ..especially if next bounce seem another one of these.
Same deal - use 4360 then 4350 as key pivots for the Shockwave ... if /when we get below those we enter the 'next phase'. end of current grind and likely either
- wide range grind for period of time OR
- a larger drop and then ?? = we shall see I can't predict
WED Nov 8th -
- pretty much as expected in last couple days analysis
- DOllar and TNX is the place to focus right now ..dollar is looking 'bottomy' (is that a word!? :-) ) ..TNX dropping this AM is surprise to me ..suggest we have a longer '4' ( assuming its 4 obviously and not THE reversal ...I still put that much lower odds currently) ...I would also say keep another eye on CRB ...I'll talk about that on next video ..probably weekend ..will have more information then as well.
.. there are some very clear Swing pattern on TNX I've used last 2 years...so I will be looking at that here to get a strong view next view days.
Market - possibly 5 up , possible 4 of 5. now ...but LQ driven is ALWAYS impulsive ...but does NOT mean AFTER the LQ injection normal rules are followed as I've gone over
- essential 'impulsive' in modern markets = high LQ and or higher emotion. (more humans relative to ALGO's ) .
- We DID follow WAVES rules perfectly as I posted for 3 month before the latest ALGO LQ injection ...it will likely take a month or so for us to resume 'normality' after this shockwave ...that is my experience .
ALSO FYI - the REAL$ Retail data I most rely on ..just flipped today ..that is roughly 5 day LAG ..lets say 3 days because maybe it took 2 days for retail to flip ... but this is fairly consist pattern around LQ Shockwave/flamethrower/button presses ...that data is lagged ... I've talked about it for a decade ! .... Why is it lagged... dunno' the most Occam Razor's is eitehr
- there is system of information flow control that is in place to work against outsiders ( as opposed to insiders) OR
- there is a natural reason that I don't know ...that is Vendor related ...stockcharts in this case
it's probably just vendor data issues...whatever..I just know to wait for 5 days and adjust backward 2-3 days to get 'real read here' which I won't get until another 4-5 days given the lag. This conveniently makes anyone not aware totally 100% wrong on reading it
- FYI tHis occurred for entire COVID DROP! ... it was ridiculous ..and seeing it again now...it NEVER happens in 'normal markets' ...so whilst I want to believe the latter, a strict follower of Occam's razor would believe the former .. maybe its a mix of the two, most things are 'grey' not black and white in reality.
btw line - its 'bloody annoying' but I know enough to get around it ..but it also means its useless for a read right now.
This has given me another new Name for this
- an LQ EMP ! ...because all information of value is 'blinded' ..like EMP taking out electronic.
Hey, its almost as if there is goal to totally confuse/blind retail at certain moments LOL ..so we outsiders have to fumble around in the dark without TA working, without usual data, without anything except those with 'blind faith' or 'guessing' ... I don't believe its coincidence if you look at historical charts I posted ..that of the however many data points since 2006 -
- ALMOSt ALL occurred either at major lows or tops ...just when 'insiders' ( in this case we can guess the CB or proxies if you want to get cute about it) ..want to be on the bus, and retail kept off it.
IT is what it is - and the most important lesson is to understand the nature of modern markets - they are 'natural' then 'simulated' like this ..its impossible to know exactly when those flips of 'mode' will occur ... and once it does there is a period like now of LQ EMP blindness ..where u can either
- be a gambler of jumping on the LQ shockwave ..look at historical charts to see your win/loss and drawdowns
- or wait it out for natural markets to resume
TO BE CLEAR Today is likely first 'minor read' of setup -
- do we get '4th wave' shallow pullback setting up likely another 2-3 days upward grinders to complete the LQ Shockwave ( my new term for button press..I think it describes it better!)
- OR do we start a down wave reaction now ..much less likely historically.
SPX I will use 4350 as rough divider of two scenario's here.
LQ Shockwave has peaked as I said ..now were in the LAG ZONE ..THEN we see what type of reaction wave we get on LQ ..as I went over on historical posted charts over the weekend.
On COMP - we've had something like SEVEN GAPS up on this run ..some small ..but A-Typical of CB LQ Injections as I said now and many many times ...classic signature.
TUE Nov 7th
- stocks grinding(dow, spx many indexes ..Comp still surging) typical LAG Mode I've discussed ..no tell there yet
- TNX- today is key ...if the retracement of yesterday's bounce on TNX turns back up ..bonds are in trouble in my view ...and 4 high odds done...wd need to fail here today I believe to see extended 4
- USD - maybe start of also turn ..I don't think its 4...probably 2 or B type ..maybe have longer I haven't had time to look close enough
TO BE CLEAR - what I need to see ..other than what I've gone over
- How much 'real buying' is there ...? as most of what we saw was LQ IGNITED Short covering
- what we need to see now is ..does institutional money buy here..or on pullbacks? if not, eventually ..and can take a while...this will collapse again.
A useful rule here (not perfect, nothing is) - is 1st hour and last hour ...1st hour tends to be retail ( not the gap, but after the open) ...then last hour tends to be institutional (though, not when market isn't making. much of a move..ALGO's is what I'm interested in ..so its more complex than it used to be for indicators doing that calc)
FWIW My BEST GUESS here ... posted once already but disappeared! so lets try again
- disclaimer ..I can change my mind since this is not based on Model but just my view of 'everything'
- We grind sideways ish Up at current levels on Spx/Dow/Comp now for few sessions to a week or so
- Then we Drop ..a 'retracement' or something alot more if we get LQ RTE. see charts posted..no way to know on this yet...and it will be a 'guess' anyway
- Then we get ONE MORE UP SWING we can call xmas rally .. COMp provably makes new high look as I said door4 4=ABC done, now 5 up there ...but SPX likely doesn't ..more 1.2 .... though VERY SIMILAR on everything to 2007 to. me here...that got a 100% retracement back to highs....we shall see.
- Then WE get next let down to below 4100 toward 3900 ..and so forth likely into early 2024.
But one step at time. ..also need to track TNX ..shd make TOP in this period as ive gone over....this is tricky period right now on synching all this...especially the. CB deciding to get involved. AGAIN. .SIGH.
YeaH - Real GRINDER typical of what I've seen In past with these injections...
- I've said upfront there is no way to 'predict here'
- but I can compare to past and this is very similar to many
- I need to see a few more sessions but most likely ..we get many days of sideways 'ish now
...THEN I'd look for a gap down type move ..then 'well see'
Probably more and AS important is Bonds and Dollar ..and as said sentiment ...too early to be certain on that beyond the crazy flip I mentioned on TSP as I have noticed REAL$ data I use seems to LAG ....which is 'shouldn't' but its a bit mysterious ...as not consistent ..keeping an eye on that this week
Everyone around me has been sick for last couple weeks - and everywhere I go, is it acceptable to wear a Hazmat suit in Sam's club? ..just asking for a friend :-) ..hey, idiots still wearing masks in there so at least wear something that would work.
We also have endless 'controlled burns' - everyone so fed of up I actually complained to Govt ADEQ and got response and they seem to have stopped.. but as someone wearing mask noted 'I can still smell the smoke through my mask' - I sighed .. yes PM2.5 size smoke gets goes through the holes and is BIGGER than viruses ...doh duh! ( 2.5 *10-6 meters, most viruses are 100 to 1000 times SMALLER at NANO meters - boring real science versus mainstream $cience).
So not been feeling my best for last week - but so far surviving ... hopefully feel better as this week goes to catchup on market stuff.
We seem to me in a Bizarro world to me right now on everything. On pure 'feel'..the world feels the 'most fake' in my entire life experience right now .. maybe its just me ...but everything feels controlled, contrived ..fake ..like we are following a script more than I can ever recall ...hard part is figuring it out ... at least on shorter term timing like last week ...pretty insane ... longer term I think its predictable and inevitable.
Nov 6th MON
I didn't have time to update this weekend alas - I will try tonight or any day this week ! ...weather is unually warm so spent the weekend outside doing biking/hiking etc ..and escaping the endless 'prescribed burns' in my area ..ugh ....
Really - as per chart I posted on CB Action - we need to see where there INJECTION ENDS ..tHEN See how market reacts .... THEN we need to see if LQ does the 'Reversion to Extreme' as is as shown highest probability and how price reacts then ..... TA is worthless during these events as I've shown for a decade.... it will resume normal service after all of this ! :-)
HEADS UP - this latest MASSIVE CB LQ injection appears to have PEAKED right here ....though, as said, often a big LAG to stocks .. USD and BONDS less so ...they are all strongly connected here because this is a SYSTEMIC INJECTION.
I Guess the BEST SIGNAL of LQ doing an RTE .. would be a bunch of GAP DOWNS ..especially where like move up ..they don't really fit the pattern
From what I can tell - we 'shd' not drop more than first gap below before more BTFD in is somewhat 'usual' LAG zone ... so that is our first big tell here.
I mean, its hard to say much after a 4-5 SIGMA LQ Injection to entire financial system LMFAO - I'm sure people are claiming all sort of reasons + signals etc but as usual they are dead wrong .. just like over the summer ....and my whole career ..most 'reasons' are b.s.
Most TA won't tell us 'what happens next' but I can use the historical backtest examples + some of the model looking at retail$ & sentiment ...
We don't have enough data points since 2007 where my tracking data begins to say' - typically this happens ( refers to charts I posted ).
So its always going to be a judgement call more than usual.
It more a case of 'seeing what happens' for a while ..then judging it from that ..if that makes sense .. i.e. sometime you can predict, other times like this market will tell us ..but as I've said many times ..these CB interventions are the hardest and ironically usually most important time/price points on IT and bigger degree ... just to make it fun!!
TNX likely put in that 4th wave low here ...important to see this now and one of key pieces..I need to take a deep dive on USD ..get a good read on that ..as we know ..those of us who's tracked this for long time .there is strong connection to CB LQ on USD ... stocks->LQ tends to LAG always effect ...and retail pile in chasing the effect and ignoring the cause - TSP poll saw - highest amount of bulls I have on recent record (over a year I believe, need to check
- biggest Jump bear to bull likely on record
DOLLAR - looking just quickly at EURO and Sterling ..its strongly looks like a large - A -B - now C corrective taking place
- once this completes ..DOLLAr would then surge up ...in 3 or C (higher degree)
It could morph into a longer corrective.
I need to look at signals and models to confirm this ...
I managed to find the setting for 'new first' on all posts...so that is one good thing! :-)
Also I found out today - and I can't say details obviously ..that there is a call up of reserves in the European Theatre .. not good ..implies anticipation or concern of escalation.
Nov 3rd - CB Gap up and Run -ATHON continuous ...as expected.
LQ pump that size 1+1=2 ...produced CRAZY EXTREME"s now . u ever wondered why?
now ya' know! :-)
HEADS UP - I think this is pretty nice way to show this ...I hope! ...its very simple and obvious as I said ..though it also shows the results are less predictable.
HERE is a way i've come up with to show u the CB ALGO 'button presses' - of 4 sigma + ..some are FIVE SIGMA+
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg5MTE0OV8yMjM0NjEwMQ
Historical charts - never run this before, but totally expected these results .doh duh!
* 2009 was exceed by COVID injection see next chart...
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg5MTE1NV8yMjM0NjEwNw
NOTE - no more CB LQ UP signals until 2018 LOW!!!! 9 years gap ...crazy huh!?
* were some 'down LQ signals' - as said, or will say ..some are 'credit crunches' more than CB ALGO but I don't have easy way to adjust for that....but its fairly obvious, when u get very fast down moves ..its most often 'LQ drop' but not due to CB I don't believe.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg5MTE1OV8yMjM0NjExMQ
Summary - this shows u just how unusual the last 3 days are..LQ was normal until Wednesday!
Boring reality - of no interest to the Matrix with its endless Psy op of 'everything is great'..
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-number-multiple-jobholders-closer-looks-inside-horrific-october-jobs-report
Whatever this Five Gaps in Row up on comp off not much in term of TA ( like the summer ) IS - If I am right, it will be the final Swing up or I guess IT move up though it shd NOT be an IT move ..
-for many reason ..not least of which is I expect Insiders and ALGO's to use the trained monkeys to sell into there ..as they did with the summer one.
I guess they might wait until xmas ...tbd
( substack auto correct is worst I've ever seen , its killing me! please realize I've given up corecting its corrections .too many every posts ..its truly awful ..I will see if I can turn it off somewhere ...my actual writing is better without it!)
Can't find a way to turn it off ..Ugh ... gazillion settings ..but no one for this or I can't see it ..A - not - ing. (that was annoying ..but it 'corrected it' ..if u see what I mean! LOL)
FWIW MY 'gut' feel here
- COMp MIGHT might make new highs or test or truncated here
- Dow and SPX will NOT .. I say that based on a lot of things historically, and also the act dow has 5 clear down ... now, it could 'retest' but I lean it wont'..but I do NOT see it will make new highs no matter how many LQ button presses CB pull out there bag of tricks ...this one is special because of setup they. used - being everyone looking for seasonal low, FED meeting 'euphoria' and some shorts building to give some fuel .. I don't think we'll see that repeated so while more LQ would be supportive ...it won't be as dramatic...and no guarantee's there will be more since I have no f'in clue in most cases why they do it ... if I did, I could predict it, and as I've said for 10 years or whartever I cannot alas...it true. 'insider trade' as we saw a lot of strange buying ahead of this that would normally lead to selling .so Hmmmmm!
So yeah - its 5 down ..1 ..2 ..or A ..B up now of large C down is my best 'guess' barring some crazy reason CB's need to override beyond all historically norms ..to be fair they did almost this in Autumn of 2007 ... this is getting eerily similar to my experience of that ... and it did retest the highs... and then 2nd one was crazy fast bounce like this falling short of highs.. I lean we are there on Dow at least.
It never BORING is it??!! ... I think volatility will pick up because this time is crazy important on very big super cycle picture ... I was just going over it again for myself recently ..it just so PERECt...but the difficulty is ...we could yet see one more big up cycle to finish ...but I do think we need a C down first into 2024 ... one step at time. ...but I have ZERO DOUBT that tthe move from 2009 to now is an Ending Diagonal 5th of supercycle from 1937 or whoever u want to start it ...its as clear as that TNX could has been .... I don't know an ED has ever occurred on this degree? I doubt it ... so it going to be 'crazy' once it completes...I don't think it has here yet ..leaning more to one more down-up cycle.
Just some thoughts here FWIW.
Near term - let the LQ pump end ...see what happens then .... I have a lot of road maps here to use ...to measure out progress so to speak.
ALOt of the ST parabolic is due to TNX and DOLLAR ... not the MCHVIE nature ..all are linked because of CB systemic action .... but since I believe both dollar and TNX will eventually move higher ...that's going to be a major limited on the upside into Nov-Dec xmas joy ....I will look at those counts and setup closely at weekend since both are much more predictable than stocks and less prone to CB b.s.
Another thought - and I put these down as jolts to talk about on video's when I get time with charts/TA
- this implies to me ..that I could be wrong about something ...I felt once we crack, we get deflation in assets ... but since we now in K-spring we won't get big drop just pullback.
that means to me - IF/when we get one more up cycle into say 2030 ..it will see a '3'rd wave up' in commodities, and yields ..
I never thought we would get hyper inflation..due to collapse of credit ..but this implies I am wrong..or it certainly is possible this ends then with a hyper inflationary move ..I guess due to world supply shortages due to all the wars and other reasons ... I need to think this through more..lots of time obviously.
But figuring this out is going to be massively important for one's personal situation and to take action to protect oneself ..if that is even possible!
Just to add to that thought - What is WEIRD about this is
- I cannot reconcile how given what I see in the economy, financial system and world events ..how in the world we get another upcycle say sometime 2024-6 into say 2028-2030 ( timing is almost impossible to say from here)
- but just like that button press, I guess it implies there is still enough magic left to pull it off ...
- Sort of like market action 1968 into 1974 eventual major bear..lots of retesting highs and minor bears in period before it ..
OR we are going to get a unique failure of the pattern ..or could say truncation on the current move counting as the final move? it doesn't look right to me ...but maybe we are going into a period so unique in many way s- controlled demolition of financial system + AI being brought out etc.
Still thinking on all this ..and seeing new information as it comes in. I am open minded and prepared to flip my views based on a clearer view on this. But on the current situation, I am very strongly of view some sort of C down ..or whatever is needed in 2024.
At least doing it through LQ I have a chance of figuring out stuff out one it ends .. price will just keep going parabolic as usual until the finger is off the LQ button .... unlike the summer one which was bizarre .... I certainly would love to know why this one was done ...I guess its similar to 2007 where they don't want anyone short once they are ready to collapse it in one big move ... they took it to Brink here, a few shorts/bear came in ( nowhere near normal lowS) and BOOM ... button press for the ages ... its an MO .... Rocket ship moves up, then slow grinds down.
Thur Nov 2nd - Mirror Move ..likely very bearish
4th gap up on comp! ... this looks like a reaction move to break of 200 sma ...its panic buying
essentially again.
I thought we would get more of a time testing key support ..but this is now forming an MO - that we get panic buying as all and every support... similar to the summer 'breakout' .. its not 'normal' that's for sure.
Well I could be wrong but this looks like kind of thing that has led to collapses once it rolls over ..it might take a while ..a sort of 5-8 session deal.
HEADS UP _ Volume anomaly on today (what a surprise ..not, thx CB!)
I will show at weekend when I get time - clear to show ...it too early to say if
its big problem ..but 'probably' ..which I know isn't helpful ..but we just don't get enough data points or similar context to know - I will be able to judge more over next 2-5 sessions.( data point of massive LQ injection by CB 4 days into. 'corrective bounce' ..during a potential start to bear market but also in possible positive seasonality in a FED pause on rates during a secular turn to reflation ..in biggest credit bubble in history ..good luck backtesting that ... unique data point! ..so I use other means ..bottom line is..it more about what happens once the excitement is over..)
LOL - is this deliberate idiocy? or just actual idiocy?
.. bonds directed the FED ..not other way around ..just last week they were selling that Bonds were doing FED's job for them ! ... Matrix b.s. at its finest
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond-yields-steady-after-big-rally-af500d44
WAHOO! A CB bank sponsored Barn burner ..exciting isn't it? ....
TNX getting the pullback I talked about and dollar dropped - its UTOPIA ...for NOW :-)
Lets see whether this flips those investors quickly back to bulls this week on the xmas rally theme or not.
OH - FYI - Massive LQ pump here ..just noticed ..so todays gap up and run is CB sponsored for some reason ..haven't seen that for a long while ...probably 2 years I can remember ( summer one was by some other 'new creative method'( this is back to old faithful) .. your guess is as good as mine as to why but VERY CLEAR button press signal.
Oh is it THIS? I dont' watch that fake reality show 'The Uniparty blacklist no. 1' ...but just saw the headline for it today Biden impeachment decision coming ‘very soon’: House Speaker Johnson
Psst - here is a typical LQ signal ..normal range then 'giant button press' LOL ar far right..so big it goes off my screen !!! ..comical and usually effects last a while ..this one though just triggered credit signal warnings as I mentioned last night it might ..so its 'costing' ..I wonder why they did it? no idea as usual.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg4NTM3OF8yMjMzODQyOA
So 5 down to exact hit on key support must hold 4100 ...now strong impulsive ...without model support .. smells like another massive retail trap to me ..and usually that are very impressive like the summer ... so as said, might last quite a while...too early to say... too many gaps, too much FED effect etc .. no form to the move ..the comp one is a joke .
- ..so totally unreadable right here on short term but I have clear 5 down ..now reaction up move ..tbd beyond that.
This looks rather contrary bullish - another survey to be ignored?
https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
I look at TSP its record is better for same retail investors - it was too bearish at last weeks close .. but I don't find these meaningful now except for swing type moves.
WED Nov 1st - FED DAY = Spook Short Term traders day
Not much to add to comments on this from mon-tue ...we got 3rd gap up on comp LOL
Other than that its 'we'll see' ..by which I mean thur-fri ... because rarely these days is FED
day meaningful on IT or higher trend ..its all about screwing ST traders ..when isn't it ? LOL
HMMM - Credit model showing some very extreme reading today...that's unusual ..
We are 'due' a 'breather' here on this bounce ..if we don't get one tomorrow ...and we gap up/run again ..then this move is VERY suspect as some kind of backsweep ... it had better keep going if that is the case - or raises RISK of a reversal to downside into total collapse ..this is very often how this occurs ...
If we get a pullback ..then maybe this is A up of a larger retracement of 5 down .it doesn't really fit the model signals ..but that's the most bullish setup I can see.
btm line - tomorrow is very important on bigger trend view
I would say this is VERY UNUSUAL market behavior here .the number of anomalies of 4-5 sigma on models is itself 5+ sigma ..or never seen ..USUALLY = another CB intervention? did some banks go down and here we go again? could be ..its as weird as summer stuff ... but too early to say .... i'll give it pass due to EOM and FED ...but I am keeping a very close eye thur/fri as I said ...thiat shd be the real tell ..... a bounce was 'normal' and its now getting 'unusual' ...but too early to call it out just yet.
Certainly the wave pattern on NQ is ludicrous ..typical of FED period ..as I said, tend to break ST patterns ... the clearest corrective of all time, breaks up into a massive impulse LOL .. but in my experience, that puts the move on very shaking groud once selling returns ..unless I guess its 'banned'
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg4MDU5OV8yMjMzMjUwOQ
OT - Elon Musk: "Twitter Was Completely Controlled By The Far Left"
Um, yeah,,y'a think? LOL ...along with the entire MSM bar FOX and nearly every internet site (That show up on searches ... as the search engines are 'owned/controlled' .doh duh!)
The Real question Elon is - Who controls the Far Left? ... and who controls those who control them ...etc ..same goes for the 'far right' ..and who control ELON? ..because sure as hell the guy doesn't say what he actually knows, only what suits his BRAND.. LOL
Sun Tzu 'Divide and Conquer' - tried and tested best Military Strategy at work.
TNX - I think were in a wave 4 ..corrective ...that's bad news as then will go on to make higher high above 50 ..but it 'shd' be the final high in my long term target around 54-56 ..lets hope so eh? YIKES
MAx pullback of 4 to 45 ...medium odds 46 - 46.5 and could be in already if we take off from here.
AWARD - Most Muted FED Reaction Ever? ...interesting.
ONE PROBLEM with the Imbalance signals - the data used and calculations have a bit of a LAG ...I often cannot be sure of the signals until a delay - for ST ..its about 15 minutes, for longer ones ..upto an hour ... don't ask me why, I don't know ...some sort of data errors I guess... but its annoying around FED because often get strong signals but I don't know usually until say 2.30 -3pm EST ..I will take a look then and see what we got.
My Best guess @ 1.55 for post FED nonsense -
- a bunch of up/down stuff ... that eventually starts a down 'retracement' into thur -fri (see char tI posted last night of similar setups)
disclaimer - any b.s. can happen around FED.
BTFD resumes ... I am looking to see if ALGO selling comes back in last hour ...now that EOM and FED are out the way ... until we do its clear retail will BTFD^N ...as they have been through the whole drop!
Bunch of up/down - comp only one getting a bid
NO ALGO selling yet
but basically didn't move from AM highs
So, now, thur-fr is the real tell ...as it usually is -
- I'd expect a pullback as said
- if we power up ..then I'm wrong and we're getting a 'surprise' swing up off back of EOM and FED slope of hope and inflows ... I believe it will fail like the last 2.
I will look at the EOD DATA later ..and see if this last 3 sessions change model outcomes /probabilties ... and If I have a strong view I will post video tonight .... probably be weekend ( I'd forgotten FED this week).
IRONIC here -
- I think a hard drop (* actually doesn't need to be hard ) and retest of 4100-4130 would give a chance of change of my IT model ..to 'buy' - though I doubt it..more likely another longer swing up THAN
- more bounce here...as we failed to get 'snyched low' for IT .... but there again, we seem to see so many strange things in 2023 ...but ...still this would be the strangest yet for major low.
Seeing ton of 'buy the FED' right before decision again - seen this about 4 times in 2023 and none worked out well ..I guess a 'stopped clock' could be right this time if the buying is insiders who know of a 'button press' coming ...but I do believe that's low odds ...so, after whatever games occur .... if normal rules apply there will be a RTE reaction down ...might be thur/fri depending.
TUE OCt 31st - HAPPY HALLOWEEN! Markets are less spooky and more trick than treat here I believe into the FED tomorrow.
We are getting the A- B- C type deal ..actually it looks more like ascending 'wedge' of abcde ..but who cares eh? FED post moves usually make mockery of ST patterns ..but we will see tomorrow.
Either way ST Model reached RTE as said - and now getting some key SELL signals...so odds increase we will at best churn here into the FED . and through the positive EOM period -
- which for me is a NEGATIVE SIGNAL .. I'll give it to Wed/thur to be just to be sure, in case the FED meeting being 1st of month is messing with that ..but, I highly doubt it given what I'm seeing on the imbalance signals.
TNX looks to be in 4th type wave ..so I'm looking for at least one more 'higher high' there...then. 'well see'...
THese are all very similar price structures here ... I'd expect a similar outcome ..but this week has too many influences (EOM/FED) to be as reliable.... by end of week I will have better read on position
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg3NTIwNF8yMjMyNTUwMQ
Mon & Tue didn't tell me anything! ...tomorrow may or may not ..1st day of month and FED ..
but should by thur - fri ...ironically, then mon-tue might mean something .. kinda of hindsight - foresight ...dunno' have a word for that. :-)
Example - New Imbalance signal
note. currently, it didn't trigger.a swing buy, and is getting close to a sell ..need a bit more work ..but key is buy imbalance are NOT accumlating - there are no holy grails, but statistically this put low odds of significant low here.
Note. I didn't mark ALL the signals as chart would get too busy...just some to show examples.
for accumlation - distribution ...look at where a strong signals didn't lead to expected strong price move..the best example is the runup off the initial drop from recent top ..got strong 'buy' but failed over without a new high = strong distribution I mentioned at the time ...I saw it though on shorter term version which are much clearer for this.... this chart is more of detected ODDS of Swing or IT highs lows.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg3NDU5NF8yMjMyNDQ3OQ
Kinda same deal but I configure them to bring out certain signals clearer, this one shows the major sells and buys clear - when I have time I'll review them all in model .there is quite a lot for all timeframes. Only one showing building buy is on daily, but its got a ways to I think given the hourly ones.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg3NTA0M18yMjMyNTE0Mw
That's one ugly pattern off of yesterday' highs
Getting a grinder - I find it fascinating to see why .. it clear ALGO's have stopped selling into the retail buying .. EOM ..the FED and natural 'fishing' from oversold condition ...
..the real tell will be thur-fri.
FYI - I've have made a couple of improvement to TWO Models recently
- the Imbalance - its difficult to show this signal because of the math, and tool im using..to really do it I will have to code it myself and I don't have time, plus I don't need to really.
But I've tried to improve them, and will post some of the newer signals ...which I think are clearer.. and in doing so, Ive learned a few more things on this...I actually think this is potentially the signal best signal I have ....more when I have time
- the ST model - added a lot here. ..but why Mark? you are not short term trading ..nope, but, and I admit I'm tempted to resume ST trading but recently win/loss on this ..but its because of the important in modern ALGO driven markets of answering one simple question
- is this move a reversal or corrective ?
- will the move 'pullback' if its reversal or just 'go'.
I believe the ST model is now better at answering this ...though only going forward will I be sure...it certainly been perfect last 3 months.
We shall see - this period is another great testing ground for the models ... nothing is ever going to be 100% ... I've looked back over May-July and I still see no data that would have improved any of the models ... it really was just an 'anomaly' ...and I've gone over my reasoning on that, and I think recent moves have proved my RTE on that correct.
The USD seems to be finished with it's corrective now and is pressing higher - should see some clear impulses higher over the coming weeks, FWIW
MONDAY OCT 30th - Slope of Hope Redux
Again, I assume because nukes didn't go off at weekend, that 'hope is restored' - I see ZERO CHANGE on ST model through to Swing/IT models - signals , setups , price patterns .... the beat goes on.
This increases our odds now of breaking 4100 ...had we had say a gap up and fast drop to restore fear ...then fast reversal up .... that wd have a shot ..but this looks like all the other 'oversold - RTE on ST bounces expected on my signals' ... time will tell.
Dollar got sharp drop to support it - but I don't believe it will last, looks like starting a 5th up, it's very clear on Sterling and Euro. ...alt is 1 ..2 ...which would be a lot worse! though give some support for a week or so to stocks via LQ.
RTE reached here around 3pm on Short Term (ST) Model - so last hour will be really good TELL. for me ... I must say, I am loving the market last few months .. my models are working amazingly ..so just about time for the CB's to throw a wrench in it LOL ..no, I really don't believe they can at least not on the IT trend ...only on the Short term moves of course ..but so far, this is the expect ST RTE bounce .. I think I posted the. key imbalance new signal Sunday for a bounce e...but it's across the whole model ..we've RTE'd ....so ...now we'll see if some ALGO's sell last hour at all .... or maybe selling is 'banned' until post FED and EOM tbd
* Substack is crap - I will find something else but my 'real life' is very busy for months..so when I get time ... but I can't highlight posts ! for now I will jus t'like' my own posts ..like some narcissist that fits in with today Matrix programming LOL
No buying last hour ..but no major selling ...looks like a-b-c up today ...so lets see tomorrow .. if a-b-c = done ..we sell off hard, if abc=A ..then be chop or pullback then C up into FED slope of hoppery
- this doesn't look SWING up ..more like a longer Short term bounce ...I cd be wrong as 4100 is major support ...no point predicting ..just follow the signals and setup which keep working ..until they stop working ...which is more likely in a FED week and EOM.
my READ here = another FISHING EXPEDITION into EOM
IF u put it all together here ..strongly looks like ALGO' using EOM to fish for retail buyers ..
so bounce might last longer ...but will setup another strong down leg.
OH - It's FED week? so that will add fun and games to Short term moves as well ...I don't really pay attention to them anymore ..they are becoming irrelevant to all markets.
But I guess its another 'fishing hook of hope' to use.
I wonder how long the ALGO's will 'resist' the juicy fruit of this bounce here? ..that will be a tell ... I suspect we'll go more of the same producing at best a choppy bounce ...until the retail buying exhausts into mid week?
I Am seeing DISTRIBUTION Here today.... the imbalance can be used to see that as well ..when u get prolonger BTFD and price is not moving up as per today ..or relative to the buying ..it means someone big is selling into it ...and saw this right at beginning of drop if u remember way back ..seeing it here today, its only on smaller scale for now.... but ..I'll. keep an eye...it suggests ALGO's. using the 'trained monkey's to sell into EOM and seasonal strength.
You can maybe see it here - use the moving bands not the spikes this time ...
- price moves should match 1 to 1 with the moving averages ...when they don't u are seeing accumulation or distribution
- note today ..ALOT of buying so lines moving up ..but price going sideway s..nromally we should be getting a trend up day
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2ODU0MF8yMjMxNjc1Mw
Funny - two gaps UP on Q's fri and today in ROW ..and MORe gaps UP than DOWN during this big drop ..what does that = slope of hope
VST - we 'shd' drop back down here to close gap up ..based the wave patterns ...and we have largely followed them to the letter ..there is always some b.s. and maybe we get some here to jam it back up ... IF we do drop ..to 4120 ..likely to try to bounce again there ... patterns have been mostly complex flats or variations.
- at some point we'll get a longer one of these SlopeHope bounces ..this one is likely a '4th' type wave though... we shall see
Were into EOM "strength' and season pattern - so if we can't get a bounce here ..its says ALOT and it ain't positive :-)
SAT OCT 28 - I MAY Post this weekend OR I may wait to see mon-tue because what we do is going to be a MASSIVE TELL for the model - of course, it might not be and then I won't update until next weekend .... I'll decide tomorrow AM but
- my NEXT VIDEO will one of the most important i've made in very long time! I am very sure of the model and my calls and setups .but more to point, IF I continue to be right ..this is most important timeframe since at least 2007 .... and possibly EVER ... hyperbole? .. I don't think so myself ..I can only give u my honest view as I always have .... I hope to hell I am either wrong or , we the PTB aren't ready ..and we get let off here....but we have that EXTREME RARE CONFLUENCE needed to execute a 'controlled demolision' and bring in next parts of the RESET of whatever u want to call it .. I'll would say 'GLobal control' but that too simple.
I will UPDATE MIDWEEK - any day this week once i see what I need to see ... I don't see any sign of major IT low ...so whatever happen even we get surprise bounce I see very high odds of retests ..so, I see no need to make a call here .... the TREND is DOWN ...on Swing and IT for now.
ONE KEY SIGNAL I spend time backtesting to 1980 is this one ...what I can tell you is, this one and couple other EXTREME RARE signals have fired ..that, give us 'well above average RISK of a CRASH' type move - to trigger it, we need to take out 4100 on the spx cash and fail to bounce if/when shorts finally start to pile ...well, we will get backsweeps but on daily/weekly basis
* in al market history, there has never been a IT low without this signal co-incidently reaching a low ...right now its bounced up and just rolling over ...so this puts VERY high odds, we need alot more TIME if not PRICES to reach a sustainable IT low - given the proximity of 4100 ....Logic dictates it won't hold ...and logic then dictates ALOT ...I will go over :-)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2NDAxMV8yMjMxMDg0MA
Same is true of this signal ..totally different ..but same idea - they are what call 'bottom triggers' - you literally can't get an Swing or IT low without them synching with Price to a low ...i've got many ..most are NOT synched ...which is Trouble * disclaimer nothing is 100% ..but its about 98% :-)
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2NDA1Ml8yMjMxMDkxMA
SITE TRAFFIc SIgnal
Over the years, i've noticed patterns and signals related to sites I posted at.
For this substack, we can track it ... I think you can see a definite 'signal' here... what does it mean? ...it means we have gone from 'sanguine' to 'worry' stage .... next comes 'embracement' and that its always close to the turn ...we have a ways to go there.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2MzYyN18yMjMxMDA2MA
In meantime - i've been doing alot of work on the imbalance model, because i've seen how useful it is ..but its hard to get the 'math' I want ( a summation calculate of spikes) ...I have to do it visually ...but i've coming up with some better one s.. ..this isn't great, but it works really well on Short term ...i've got some really nice one to show on longer term but will discus in video.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2MzEzMF8yMjMwODg1Mw
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2MzEzMl8yMjMwODg1NQ
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2MzEzM18yMjMwODg1Ng
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2MzEzNF8yMjMwODg1Nw
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg2MzEzNV8yMjMwODg1OA
FRI OCT 27 - Rinse Repeat ...and that ain't Good !
No change - as I've gone over the tape all week ..
Current corrective bounce is literally identical to last one form wise ...except now Dow is weaker and other component so only Comp is bouncing.
Most interesting - is we did NOT accelerate down ...this is BAD ... it implies to. me what I said late last night..and I will go over on video ..that this is much bigger trending move than I was thinking - but one step at time always.
4130 produced this bounce ..but as said, it looks like enough Retail hook - 4100 next ...then 'well see' ..but it hard for me to see the models changing enough by then to prevent. a break of that..and ALL that implies I've gone over.
GOLDEN RULE - there is SYMMETRY to the math of price moves ..thankfully..there is lots of 'rules' I follow infact.
- the Key one to realize here is -> in an IMPULSE ..the key measure is the EXTENDED WAVE ..usually 3 .....not always ..
- once we have a 3 I can produce measured moves with very high accuracy and probabilities
The key reason I mention is - we haven't see the '3' ..we can call it POR or PANIC ...
As I mentioned only EXTREME RARE EXCEPTION do we NOT get a POR/PANIC wave ...100% due to 'white night' ..it happens in 2007 and that is when I first really began to understand the power and extent of CB interventions... I just didn't understand HOW they did it, they took me a lot longer.
Again here - we 'shd' be going into POR_PANIC mode...but ..the MO of this so far, is we don't, we bounce and produce more 'slope of hope' to keep retail double long, zero short as I've gone over at length ....
-> longer it takes, the bigger the ultimate wave down targets ...barring as said a White Knight which is lower odds here given this time CB seem to be on the planning committee.
So, Mark - how bad is this going to get?
I believe I went over the tin August - Sept ...I said my view, we are market a SuperCycle top and I'll recap again in video soon I guess... it's depressing stuff at one level ..but it is what it is.
I don't have CONFIRMATION of the t..it will take a long time to get it , so what would be the EARLY signs of SuperCycle top ? ...and early real world problems
- I've gone over at length in the financial system in video's, and link one last video for roughly 2 years ago ...
- in terms of MARKET ...I am looking for WAVES and Retail Sentiment - what I'm seeing right now is definitely worrying ...only time I saw anything like it is 2007-2008
- What would really worry me ..is if we Do NOT PANIC here..and just keep doing this rinse repeat down into 4000 area ..or lower... then we 'need to talk' LOL
- in real world - I dunno' how about WWIII starting ..check ..we discussed this way back ...and eventually a CONTROLLED DEMOLOTION of economies ...check ..in progress ..so obvious yet as is usual most cannot see it ..has to be this way.
- 2024 though will be a sign post - Matrix 100% saying 'no or light recession' ..I predict a major recession of lower 80% of income/wealth ...top 20% can be ok for now ....though assets will begin to fall steeper - stocks, and housing begin slow roll over ...may stepen.
- REALIE MOst INTERNET/MEDIA 'data' is pure PSY OPS and no basis in our living reality , they will 'fake it ' for sure in to Nov 2024 for 'election' ... giving insiders cover to sell out. to retail.as just seen in markets last 4 months.
MATRIX SIGNAL is STRONG SELL - I've explained what I look at over the years, its amazingly accurate ...this is one of Strongest sell signals I've seen ...this SCREAMS PLANNED EVENT ..don't what else to say - those that can understand this reality do, those that can't wont' no matter how much evidence and logic I produce ..so I won't waste my time ..I could just quote the Matrix I guess 'you've been living in a dream world Neo' . (selection bias in binary catchment biological computers)
Until I see at least some Matrix Output that 100% occurs at even IT type lows - unless CB's come in has not even close here ...and I said why I doubt that.
Wave continue to following my road maps
- the current bounce is either wave iv of v of 5 down ..so drop to 4050-4080 to complete 5 ..BUT ..
- high odds its SUBWAVE of iii of 5 ..OR iii of 3 YIKES ..down
tbd
Both counts point to lower lows - its all I use waves for ...Model tells me odds of up or down, and waves tell me highest odds path to get there and to roughly where.
Once 4130 is taken out - I will know current bounce wave is done - then 'well see' to refine this ... could be this afternoon ..unless ALGO's want to drag it out as last one.
4130 being retested as I type - once the ALGO fishing is done and we drop to 4100 ...that is going to be informative - as yet again BTFD spiked ...though SLIGHTLY LESS than last few extreme's ...not by much though .. I don't know how those traders have an $ left in accounts ..but judging by this they won't for much longer :-)
THUR OCT 26 - Orderly Decline. - no panic whatsoever
Ground hog - read my notes from last 4-5 sessions - no change at all
EXCEPT we've now taken out KEY PIVOTS - intraday, we'll see if we close under then ..if so, I'll be amazed-balls if we don't get some panic acceleration.
SPX almost @ my 'ideal target' 4130 ..lets see if anything happens there.
* Dynamic pattern shows why 4100 is now VERY high odds to tag ...taken out the 'pink acceleration' zone
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg1NTg3Ml8yMjI5ODg5Mw
One step at time but this looks to me like the 'real deal' ..and we are heaed to 3600 lows retest...there maybe a major bounce before we there ...but I don't know from I see ..can't predict that ..must go on data as we go ...but logically
4100 is n't going to hold ..then 3600 is a massive magnet on my model
This suggests we are starting the Primary bear market right on queue ..we'll bounfe at the lows'ish ...in 2 of C type deal ..then get a 3 of C move down similar to 2008 ..timing difficult to say ...but I'd expect it to play out by mid 2024 way this is going.
IMBALANCE PROBLEM -
* chart - its complex to explain this signal ..but very simple look at low and high spike accumulation
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg1NjIzMl8yMjI5OTM3Nw
since 4400 drop - we are NOT accumulating SELL imbalances (spikes of selling) ..that is a HUGE problem - it shows as said massive continuous BTFD , with almost no STFB ..there is ALWAYS a to and fro ..and I'm not going to go into this proprietary major edge tool ...but this is RARE infact, I don't ever recall seeing it ..but there again I only added this model about 2 years ago I believe ....
- but this IS very clear ... since 4400 ..and drop ..we are seeing the most one sided BTFD over selling ... I have seen in that say 2 year period ..
- probability wise ..its very bearish ..at least for next 1-2 session until and IF we can finally accumulate STFB imbalances.
OR something unique is going to happen - honestly, the only 'unique' thing that ever happens is the CB ALGO is turned on for a save ... its not very unique either LOL ...no sign of it, but I will know for sure given the current data. I actually don't see it work - it would lead to something led we saw in 2020 decline with crazy spikes ...the small short pool would cover leading to bigger declines ...
- the CB ALGO NEED a LARGE SHORT POOL to work ... its doesn't have that fuel here so would be counter productive ..and to be honest, I believe the CB planned this decline so odds of the ALGO 'white knight' are lower than 'normal' in this situation.
FYI - in case of 'data error' I always check again independent other data ..which confirms this ... and in any case, this data is literally impossible to be wrong and is unique to me ..so, zero change its been targeting unlike the CBOE put/call which is a joke and I no longer use.
DOLLAR starting to strengthen -- that's GOOD news and BAD news
- bad news .. will reduce LQ and increasing downward selling on stocks
- good news .. at least it means the 'event' isn't yet on ..with foreign CB and speculators selling $ assets 'on mass' ..YET.
4130 just tagged dead on and bounce ... we'll see ..I believe it more trained monkeys slope of hope.
FYI - 4170 is 1st resistance to the bounce ... so now I'll get a read into the close..
I don't see much change on the ST model .. there is LESS BUYING right now ..so this bounce must be ALGO DRIVEN ..purely off 4130 ... and a 'fishing expedition'
The bounce is CORRECTIVE ..and drop here off 4170 IMPULSIVE - so, yeah ... whatever fishing the ALGO's wanna do ..it ain't catching much fish ...so ultimately as said 4130 is very unlikely to hold and tag of 4100 is min new 'min target' ..then 'well' see'
* Whatever - it's VERY INFORMATIONAL whatever happens into the close here for me. If we collapse ..tomorrow could easily be a gap down and panic 5% day.
Based on that little fish hook move off of the bounce and the closing - my spidy-sense says tomorrow will be the leading edge of the POR - with Monday the real "O- %#*&" moment and then would look for a Tuesday turnaround - my targets are 3,800 t0 3,900, FWIW
Yeah that was ugly ..but we still don't seem to got any change ...im very interested to see if indeed we go into waterfall mode tomorrow ..if not, I also have a new road map here..I was going to post tonight but I'll wait to see tomorrow .... all I know for sure is - 4100 is going to be tested, and if it fails, which is likely ..3900 is very high odds based on historic math behavior.
It going to be more important as said WHERE WE CLOSE today ..if the predictable bounce off 4130 fades again ...then the downward slope is accelerating in my view.
If it holds...we are still in 'slope of hope' mode.
HEADS UP - I've said it over last 2-3 months ..but I'll say it again - IF EVER there was a RETAIL BULL TRAP ..this was It - I hope I'm wrong, I really do ...but this looks the real deal to me..a planned event ...I will soon know.
AND I note. the MATRIX FALSE FLAG financial sites like zero hedge ..no one peep for once about a crash ...etc ..
4100 to 3900 is 200pts = approx 5% .. we could easily see that in ONE DAY ...once retail actually sell.
One step at a time ...but this looks like real deal to me.
Odds of tagging 4100 about 90+% .. I can't go higher..nothing is 100% ..
Odds of breaking 4100 and going into a parabolic waterfall - moved from >60% yesterday to now >70% I would guestimate
And YEAH - I am somewhat Amazed by what I am seeing ..but I don't follow the Matrix ..so I'm assuming a mass psy-op to train the monkeys was done last few months + as I laid out, the Central Bank Intervention in May for Banks led to a CB induced 'break out' that I said would lead to Reversion ...and caused Retail to be 'double long, zero shot' and 'fully trained bull believers ' ... was I right, or was I right? dunno' but I believe I am right :-)
The AUTO CORRECT on Substack is WORST I've ever seen! literally changes most things I write to make them wrong ..then I have to change them again ...Ugghhh..
WED OCT 25
Gap down ...but still not clear if the corrective bounce is done ...need to break the recent lows to confirm ...Dow holding up proceedings a bit...looks like we will break down to me but one step at time.
- Shorts spiked up a bit here ..but NOT at levels required for swing buy signal
- BTFD still the 'mode' here ...I've gone over what I think is needed to break the spell.
- on comp there is more support just below recent lows ...so another round of BTFD likely there. ...*12800 down to 12700 ....I think we'll have to eventually break under that ot change from BTFD to STFB
HEADS UP - I don't know how to be any clearer here... this is one of highest odds 'collapse' setups I've seen in a really long time ... whilst 4130 'could be a low' ...and 4100 is the 'last chance' ... I don't see literally anything on the model to get that low ...infact, we are in worse position now .... the odds of a waterfall to 3900 area is increasing ...it's say >60% at time point....we will see if/when we get down to key area.
TODAY on the count I've been following ..
- looks like i..ii..iii. now iv into close..so V down to come here to complete an impulse down
- it probably is 1 of 3 ....of FIVE I've explained.
- tomorrow will tell me for sure ...
- e.g. gap down ...bounce ....then start to roll over ...THEN either tomorrow afternoon or Friday would be a '3 of 3' type deal POR wave ...
Other variants always possible ..but we've been tracking my counts unbelievably for month here ... ALSO I see MORE BTFD ALL WAY into the close.
( I would love to post charts but my laptop sucks for that, and my work computer I. have't setup ..will do so when I get time).
ALT the 'v' could occur in futures..and we just gap down tomorrow and collapse.
OK - ive some what setup posts to chart on work computer ..its resolution is small so I have to shrink the image a bit .. not great for the IMBALANCe intraday signal ...but here it is ... I've gone over this many times ... big spikes up are 'excessive BTFD ' ...and drops right down to bottom are STFB ... this is simplification of things but will do ...
- note ALOT of big BTFD spikes at moment, actually, its going on for a week
- Some STFB comes in ..not much ..we get a bounce then...but the BTFD come back fast..
ERGO - the 'balance' is to BTFD strongly over STFB at the moment
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODg1MDM2Ml8yMjI5MjEzMQ
FIFTH WAVE - ummmm ...I continue to say, I have a problem here
- everything I look at says fifth wave
- except Real money signals ..which ultimately are higher odds than 'everything else' because historically the casino wins, and retail loses.
I'll keep an open mind - but, this might be a RARE occasion where the 5th is the EXTENDED WAVE ...that would solve this. ( RARE for IT moves ).
Sweet Jaysus please tell retail to stop BTFD ..i;ve rarely seen anything like this.
WELL - I certaintly have the model setup for a an extended drop here in POR - it will be interesting to see how much more BTFD comes in at 12800 to 12700 comp ..kind of the 'last stand' ....and whether ALGO's have had enough 'backsweeping' and just sell into as so far today.
12800 TAG - let's see what the BTFD/STFB imbalance signal shows here ..it has to bounce right? retail have Brought every 'obvious' place to bounce on every timeframe from scalp to IT for 3 month .. but Now ALGO's are SELLING into it more and more...
Oh - not much ! at least so far and its corrective ..so I fancy ALGO's will take us lower today toward 12700 ..that's the really BIG one on comp - for SPX its 4130 ...
BONDS - CLOSER TO TOP
- MATRIX OUTPUT Finally CAPITULATED - after 2 years of constant top in yields calls...now I'm seeing mostly 'yields might have to go higher/longer' everywhere ..for first time
- rarely does such a POR mark the exact top ..but it a massive sentiment shift necessary
- I still go off the technicals /model /prices ....which for now says 54-56 is IDEAL high ..but if I see a 'reversal' I'd be more prepared to believe it here.
- I cannot rule out a black swan event in bonds if WWIII takes off
Tue Oct 24 - Slope of Hope is the theme
Gap up - bullish excitement abounds in retail land since we broke above 4300 back in early summer.
This looks ugly on my ST model - LQ has been strongly up, and BTFD signal showing EXCESSIVE signal .... very unusual in this situation ..but no surprise as I've gone over.
I sign NO SIGNS of even a Swing low type Capitulation - or exhaustion ... certainly not an IT one.
so I see no change of model high odds for 4150 ..and door opening to lower bounds toward 4100...just waiting for retail bulls to run out and bears to build...no sign of it yet.
WAVES - much maligned ..and for some good reasons..though mostly due to 'user error' and lack of understanding but
- the last few months have been some of CLEAREST and 'text book' wave I've seen in VERy long time ... quite beautiful ...and same on bonds and CRB for last couple years
Now I've said that - jinx - Kibosh - bad juju ..etc .. but Its been helpful and refreshing I have to say.
GUT FEELING + TAPE READ - we are finally starting to see POR in BOND MARKET ..I think the disconnect of LQ to stocks ...is very likely here because the TNX@ 50 (5%) has triggered institutional BUY PROGRAMS for bonds ... and OUT of STOCKS e.g. REBALANCING
- why hasn't this happened until now? ... yeah complex I guess... because RISK was too high in bonds ...risk is lower mathematically here ... at least compared to stocks by BIG margin
- psychology of numbers ... 5% and REFLEXIVE effect os self re-inforcing feedback
WE shall see - too early to be sure ..but if I'm right
- buying in TNX ( drop in price and yield) will NOT LEAD to STOCK POSITIVE CORRELATION ( as it has ) but TURN NEGATIVE ..or NEUTRAL
- this HAPPENS EVERY SINGLE Peak of YIELDS that preceed recessions ..almost all but not 'all' for example 1994-1995 rare exception in last 100 years I back tested ...was unique situation so the exception doesn't disprove the rule ..need to understand cause-effect ..our situation is as far from 1994 as it gets LOL ... is other extreme case of cause-effect.
- once it happens ..bear market odds increase, recession is being 'sensed' by bond market about 6month out ...but in modern AI and faster information flow - 1-2 month out ( infact, its begun I'm certain )
IT LOW - was thinking this week ...but way this is going..I'm now thinking mid November Ito xmas rally ...but one step at time.
Most everything I look at says out IT position using Waves to label is in 5th down ( see video)
- probably done I of 5 now in ii of 5 ....
- so even this says we need a fast iii of 5 down toward 4100
- if its 5 ..then we will finally see Point or Recognition POR - from retail who will panic finally and pile into shorts
- if not...well...its bad, VERY bad.
HEADS UP - I'm struggling to reconcile the sentiment signals and tape with the idea of this being 5 ... I can't see us getting enough capitulation for 'normal IT low' by 4100-4130...however
- I am often wrong about how fast data can change
- This is EERILY similar to the top In 2007 from my memory ...that actually had almost identical situation ..and we DID make IT low WITHOUT CAPITULATION ...we bounced in '2' without it ....then from there...well, history shows u ....so its possible something like this ...but its RARE ..infact, in my 25 years that's the ONLY TIME I've seen that happen...why did it happen? ...how long u got? ..heck how long I got ? :-) ....its 'complicated' ..short version ..I suspect, because 'it was planned' ...are we in another 'planned' move ..hmmmmmmmm ..I'll let u interpret the number of m's there. :-)
Today - could be 'c' down to close gap up ..which is B or A-B- C up or a variant
- watch 4210-4215 on spx cash if hold and bounces up..then this is high odds
- if it breaks ..we could have already completed a corrective bounce and then down to new low for move
LAST HOUR - I 'feel' until we see a surprising and strong move up last hour ..i.e. ALGOs ..and that holds and not sold immediately ( institutional support) .that all the intraday 'stuff' is just retail BTFD in slope of hope mode ....
- longer this 'mode' goes the more bearish it is ... I'd say usually it can last 2-4 sessions but rarely more before a big sell program would come in.
10 minute left - looks like ED pattern in 'C' up here ... tomorrow will be first real tell on this current bounce pattern.
* If ED - then we gap down and run tomorrow ...or small up open that quickly reverses down same way
* If tomorrow is up - then its some bigger C
* If tomorrow is more chop ...its some more complex pattern and to ABC or abcde
Btm line - tomorrow will be big 'tell' for me on current ST pattern
YEP HELD 4220 ...just above the key support so
- that rules out new impulse down ..we are Still in a CORRECTIVE BOUNCE
- that's bearish ..as it rules out a lower odds '4-5' here really
There are always ALOT of patterns for this type of corrective ...best guess
- C up for ABC as said into tomorrow ..then grind back down
- in 'e' now of abcde ...so 'waiting for buyers to exhaust' type move ..then fast down before close is possible or into close or gap down tomorrow
- or we get a long extended messy XYZ type deal ..
- tbd
Whatever it is - this is increasing the odds of lower targets on my models. We are still seeing 'frantic BTFD' at literally every conceivable buy point - depending on if you're a scalper, st trader or whatever. and what system u use ..I know nearly all of them...so can see 'why' folks are buying ....call it 'tape read' - and it's clearly
- NOT ALGO buying ..or institutional money
- and it strongly appears all retail driven ...hmmm ..
MON OCT 23
That is 5 down minor to 4190 .. so now big 'next step we will see' ..bigger bounce lkely .but
if not reversal ( and I don't expect it is) ....we setup and more damaging move down next.
FYI - Putting some comments in the comments section of the VIDEO just posted - rather than in the intraday...seems to make more sense.
I cd be wrong ..but the tape 'feel' to me ...is retail is still in BTFD mode..and not even reached STFB mode...and actually as I expect the BTFD has INCREASED at reach 200dma again .... what would that take to turn sentiment bearish? ...likely a close 1% or more as said under 4200..so 4150... but its hard for me to see that being enough to build up shorts et for IT type low as wave 5 ...but one step at time ...jus thinking aloud :-)
but the way we keep bouncing excitedly as literally every single obvious BTFD point ...then grinding down again ... this is dangerous ...as I've gone over at length...so. many back sweeps stops short pool building up.
5 subways up of AM gap down and break of 200dma ... bigger bounce chance as said ..but literally nothing else looks setup on my signals/model ... but we'll see what we get. Certainly can't afford to drop negative into the close again from here.
Likely getting a breather as everyone calls top and sells TNX at 50 ... it should be START of topping ..and maybe it is ...but its too early to tell here.
Dow bounce is corrective ..and we are getting more and more differences between all the indexes ...so I focus mostly on the SPX as 'broad market' .... but on the comp...I think its also 'interesting' how least fear, and fastest to get bounce .. so retail are trying chasing the last runup here..hmmmm.
Sunday Read
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/so-bad-its-good-not-on-my-data
It's not all 'bad'...some beautiful photo's on nature here..hopefully even if the humans predictably continue to destroy the planet and each other ..some nature will survive and recover.
https://www.bbc.com/news/in-pictures-67155632
FRI - OCt 20!* (dates wrong - 1 day forward this week )- Still tracking
Retest only? ...well, as i've gone over at length retail are STILL DOUBLY all in - and in extreme BTFD this AM! ...
- so we may 'bounce' ...but I can't see this ending without some sort of poke toward 4150 minimum.(that wave 5)
- but door is wide open for something horrific here.
EOD Analysis -
THIs is very reminiscent of the 2007 top to me on the waves...no obviously but on how I look at things differently ... today confirm for me 5 down .. I think odds of making new Cycle high for B B wave or even ATH are dropping rapidly as I forecast... this is strong confirmation
- looks on models NEXT WEEK will be the Point of REcog POR - pretty weird, since 'everyone know' Oct is danger period historical ..in some inverted logic Retail has somehow been Svengali'd into believe that means 'bad=good' and is buying oppertunity .
- so NEXT week will likely tell me ALOT on if right and how right or wrong I am on my bear market call a few months back ..and DEGREE and likely PATH of it.
- I will tell you straight up, 4100 spx ABSOLUTELY MUST HOLD ..its only 3% below ..a failure even intraday to hold it ...and I am looking for absolute devastation drop to 3900, and possibility lower in next few weeks. ...with high degree of confidence in model.
2 years of Deja vu ..UBS Calls The Bottom: "Treasury Selloff Hits Capitulation... Marks End Of Current Unwind""
I've corrected the headline "UBS and every other financial expert calls the bottom, every month for 2 years ..trend continues ' - and when finally the broken clock is correct they will declare 'we called the bottom ' LOL ...hey, just like most market expert do :-) (actually, most are so unclear on their 'calls' they constantly can claim they are right ...or make one call for life ..bullish or bearish ...and point it when it goes their way... oh, the fun of financial astrology).
HEAD UP - NEW PRICE MODEL Min' Projection 4130 area
I will show some of this at weekend .. I actually posted one simple model 3 video's ago for this ..
I Must admit - i am loving the Price models more and more ...they are so simple, and infact, very high probabiltiy .... compared to all the complex - vast data/signals in model ...much easier to SHOW as well.
I will give my 'simple' version of what I see here - same as I'v posted for 2months
- we are very high odds going to need more Oct panic as i've laid out
- 4130 ..but say 4100-4150 is the minimum 'price nexus for that ....
- Then i'd look for IT bounce to 61.8% type retrace back up ..likely choppy into Xmas
- then big 3rd type wave down
But ALT - is we FAIL to hold 4100 ...and the wave '5' expands....and honestly, right now this is 'lower odds' but 'not by much' ways things are going..... if so, as i've said, a very nasty price projection on models to 3900 area in a 'waterfall move' .... I wd assume fear wd spike enough
( just for completement- Outlier risk here is a black swan ..its always low odds ...but higher than i've seen most of my time since 1998 .... a failure of 3900 wd indictate tha t..way off of course..but just for completeness and in case thing move very fast ..... then can't say downside i'd have to look at monthly price models).
YIKES - remember what I said?... about just grinding down to 200day again ..then accelerating ... we re WAY TOO SANGUINE again here ...not seeing any of the usual signs of a successful retest type move ... so odds increasing of that....though as I say there going to b e chance for low @ 4150 area I believe ( but would require a massive POR and flipping of shorts/long retail data)... one step at time ... I just follow the data/signals/odds ...I cannot predict as we know ..
CLOSE - weekly ..I'd normally say 'look out for selling Into close ' of move like this ...but the alarming thing here is the LACK of SELLING ...or concern ..and most ST signals picking up BTFD ....so maybe retail think this close is another BTFD because Monday will be up when world doesn't end ...?? I don't try to understand what b.s. the Matrix is telling retail...but it must be something like this ... only thing I see is we 'should' sell off hard, but MO is we tend not to ..and BTFD at any and all possible buy points ...
- but Weekly candle looks ominous unless we see a save stick into close.
Of course - If I was trying to totally trap and screw retail investors ( and currently It and Swing traders ) - my ALGO programming wd
- plunge us through to new swing low into the close, ideally last 10 minutes when retail are generally not going too change positions
- gap is down big Monday and run run run baby!
But ... we don't seem to do this sort of thing anymore ...we get much more bounces and back sweeps than I remember ...
Oh yeah - the TRIN readings are downright scary.
That definitely looks like I ..ii ..iii down as I expected...now a bounce here iv ? ,,,cd be but this is where the higher degree count will matter ....I won't bore with a waves TED talk ..but its not so simple from here... I will see 'what we get' and use that to help give setup for ST.
But I don't see much as said to support more than more BTFD slope of hope bounces here.
THUR OCT 18 -
- Tagged 3300 ...5 minor down as said ... tried to bounce and Imblance shows TON of BTFD .and a 'spike signal' which is bBEARISH .... Powell I bldiieve speaking .
- Bonds no bounce.then selling off ...oh dear, whart a surprise ..NOT
I think that as i've covered was last chance ...and this 5 down C ...can now be 1.2 .now 3 of C ...or even of 1 down of impulse ...but one step at time.
- cd be in 2 today ...or this AM ... or start of 3 IF this is occurring ...shd be obvious by the close
* FYI - I have to 'like my post' to make it show at top when have multiple pinned posts... I am not into self-agrandizing ...well, maybe a little :-) ...
Update count .. been playing out very 'naturally' for once!!! shows how well waves would work if not for the endless b.s. on tape ...suggest more 'emotion' than usual
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODgyOTY4OV8yMjI2Mzg3MQ
The WEEKLY CANDLE and Price Dynamic is SUPER BEARISH here ..so unless tomorrow see's a 'shocking' turn around to upside ...aka intervention ... odds of what I've laid out coming increases. I don't have time this week to post charts ..but I'll post a video round up at weekend ... things are moving to a critical juncture here rapidly.
I do hope, that this is n't some desperate attempt by Democrats to create 'war time president' type support into Nov 2024...because if it is, its very misguided and from the looks of events today, is already (as planned by PTB no doubt) escalating dramatically ... this feels to me as I said week ago 'very bad' ...all hallmarks of PTB to me.. I am definitely very concerned where this is headed ..and I believe I know as said.
"I’ve spoken with the State Department official who’s resigned in protest against the Biden administration’s approach to Israel and its war with Hamas.
Josh Paul headed the bureau that oversees arms transfers, and he said he could not support the US decision to keep sending weapons to Israel while it lays siege to civilians in Gaza, which is governed by Hamas.
Paul told me he believed that Israel’s actions violated US legal provisions meant to restrict weapons sales to human rights abusers and those who broke international humanitarian law."
SO on near term counts tomorrow is setup cd be 1 of 3 today...so 2 or 3 of 3 in AM
i.e. potential for big gap down and run in AM ...I not. ..then a slippy slope of hope move on cards.
Yep - so that should be 2..now start of 3 ... if its impulsive ..so strong down now ..to retest of lows ... if we bounce, or dither ..something more complex is going on for first time ..because this has been very 'by the book' natural waves here ..RARE on Short term ..implies a lot of EMOTION on tape.
Now, if my 'retail mega bull trap' 'theory' is correct ..this will keep getting little back sweeps ...down to the retest ..then GAP DOWN and run and go into full meltdown - waterfall mode ... one step at time ...but I'm watching signals carefully here for any sign of retail flipping back to fear/shorts ..ZERO sign so far.
IS a CRASH possible? no ... markets are too controlled to crash in truest sense..but
a PLANNED crash 'like' move ...well, I've laid out for a while...it depends on ur definition ...but a move to 3900 is totally as I've said 'possible' here .. it all depends on 'the plan'
WED OCT 18 - Denialism lives on
First, I posted an important note last on LQ signal turning down ...
Market has done EXACTLY what I said yesterday - poked above to run stops above then reversed ..there are clear simple patterns here ..FOR NOW! ... this 'she' be some sort of C down currently today..again must hold 4300 area then bulls have chance for another up move .. BUT .. see my comment last night ...the 'decision' of effect of external events comes next few sessions ..a break of 4300 ...that opens door to my 'fast drop to retest the recent Swing low'...
TNX - see yestersdays comment in detail of that...not looking good ...
EOD TECHNICALS
- INTERNALS took a Big Negative shift today on Models ..moving probabilties to Swing or new IT down move rather than Swing/IT low
- notable was the new low in Stocks above 50 day moving average - that a VERY unusual one ..and definitely negative
- the TRIN gave a REALLY RARE SELL signal .... um, hmm .. seen preceding many waterfall declines.
TOMORROW will be VERY informative - if no immediate impulse up, that will confirm my view ..that a retest at minimum is highest probabily ..but I still believe a panic to 4150 or 4100 is high odds ..... and if we get an 'event' ..bonds..or exogenous ...3900 is doable.
Very clear problem - IWM wave count
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODgyMzY2MV8yMjI1NjIxMA
YEP - I wd love to do video but not time tonight ... but to show some thigns i'm seeing
- but the ENTROPY - DISORDER of the SYSTEM is definitely now showing up ...this is hard one to show & explain ...but 'disorder' here is the
- disconnect of signals that normally are correlated ( sort of opposite of MCHVIE I discussed)
- rising is HIGH RISK PATTERNS or SIGNALs ( ones that are rare, don't predict a crash but ALWAYS appear just before them ..)
- Rise of setups that 'shouldn't' be happening
- more I can list ...but that is idea
This doesn't say we are headed for a crash - but i've always seen/felt this before major tops .... it can be upto a month or two away...but I don't think so this time ..as I said, model signals called the top last month .... I suspect we are past it ...and rising entropy means the 'normal' final up move is curtailed or occurs AFTER a panic down here .
Its very interesting that's for sure ... just technically ... I can see models today are right in 'decision zone' a took big lean to 'drop' mode as per post above..
- so tomorrow into Friday even more important to add or remove from those 'leanings'
..and as I said, retail $ data has retail leaning to max long, min short ....hmmmmm.
btm line - more and more looks to me we're headed for perhaps an historic 'even't or 'period' ... that system is loosing control ...bonds ..crb and now LQ .....price 'holding' for now ...but won't last if those are lost .....and will catchup .... its possible a 'save' comes ..but my gut has been this has 'planned insider finger prints'...more clues tomorrow.
SIGH - add to all my comments earlier ..that not only is SPENDING NOT being drastically CUT ..its INCREASING!
- not content to start one PROXY WAR in Ukraine NOW
- the War Lovers or puppets of PTB seem intent on new Proxy war in Middle East.
WAIT! But Mark, this is terrorist attack by Hamas on Israel ... not a 'planned war' .. yeah well, if you want to put your head up ur backside ..sure ... go watch Wag the Dog movie and get a clue.
You are telling me
- Israel security system - literally the most high tech, total security of any nation that ever existed ..didn't have a clue Hamas was about to launch a massive attack? ( 9/11 echo's anyone?... efals flag anyone?)
- Now you tell me just as Russian/China get involved to broker a deal and peace ..a large hospital is bombed ... but can't be proved who did it ..so both side blame each other and ramp up tensions ..aka 'war drums' ... and now entire Arab world want s a massive war .. ( Calico cat scene from Wag the Dog comes to mind as I sadly watched this at gym last night...and all war mongers on Matrix vision ..salivating at the death and destruction they crave).
This is depressing, truly, on many scales -but nothing new at all is it for those who know history, real history that is.
- someone ..and its hard to say exactly who ..but very powerful ..WANT A BIG and likely long war ..proxy war ..of course.don't want it on big boys soil.
- It seems that the WWIII is for now ..a bunch of Proxy wars....why do PTB want that...well, I've said.1 -2 years ago ..they want to collapse the financial system via rising yields and inflation .and reducing average person to bankruptcies to depend on Govt ( eventually of course the FEMA/WHO or in reality PTB puppet Global authority) ... nice long proxy wars are 'great' for racking up debt and inflation Arne't they?
I'd love to be wrong ..but last night convinced me this is the case ... sadly most humans are so easy to whip up into 'hate' ...or as I call it 'lower their vibrations' .. the HARD WORK is to resist that ( resonation of our base instincts)..the .person all these haters and war mongers claim to believe in aka Jesus( or similar) I don't recall them saying 'yes, reek vengeance, don't forgive, no mercy' ... double think is strong with the majority...
- and I get it, its tough to not do that ..its hard work,, THAT is the POINT! ...and no, that doesn't mean do nothing and be pacifist ...but there are strategic and proportional responses to avoid escalation...and also tackling the underlying causal issues.. I mean, duh! .and sure 100's or 1000's years of historical 'bad blood' makes that tough..but I believe that it COULD be solved. (Ireland is good example in my personal experience of growing up in London under constant bomb threat ..was solved..or 'allowed to be solved' eventually) ... but won't be allowed to happen as too much vested PTB power plays in region ..but make no mistake -
- the PTB WILL even SACRIFICE Isreal and or anyone it feels like when it suits them...
Hard to see how humanity survives ...as Tolkien tried to explain in LOR and love that line about 'man so easily seduced' ( by hate/darknes') .... I am actually an optimistic person by nature, probably doesn't seem like it due to topic we discuss ...but I admit , the last few years and now this is testing it ... hard to see a positive path here.... other than personally I am fine but I mean on big picture. I FEAR for people of Israel, and Arab world ..and all of us down the road here..the PTB agenda is so obvious and sadly unstoppable - fear, greed , hate, division rinse repeat ..anything but 'elevation' as I call it .... Neve let people unite of rhhigher purpose than material bs.. ..don't ever let them realize their own divinity ..I don't really believe in 'evil' ..but yeah...these people in PTB and their puppets are closest thing to it.
Study the concept of mental chemicalization - that is what I believe is upon us!
Certainly part of it - its complex ...this is multi factored 'attack on the mass psyche' for sure ..mind, body, spirit assault ... planned .. the concept your describing there is similar to Orwell's doublethink or back to Marx 'false consciousness' ...that the mind cannot hold 'two truths' and there is 'struggle' and a 'cost' to that struggle ..I call it friction ... some friction is unavoidable ( the journey to enlightenment we can use these term, I say the 'experiential journey to elevation/Higher vibration ) ...but some of from environment ...and that is the major issue right now ..the environment is 'resonating' most into friction ... which will express as physical, mental and spiritual 'cost' ... I see it worsening week by week ... and for sure is 'planned environment' to de-stabilize those unable to balance themselves and block out the 'external environment' .... essentially most are being resonated/conducted (music) into lower vibratory states ... hate, anger, fear, greed .etc... and unable to defend themselves.
Simple clear pattern ST continuous
- as I typ e..just did minor iv ...of v down of something ..so a lower this this afternoon ..then 'well see' ..if its C and done, will reverse up strong .. but I suspect as I've gone over ..it morphs into a 1...2..3 down of C ..or even 1 down of something worse.
Minor waves are 'perfect' and come out for LOW HERE @ exactly 4310-4312 ...so if
- bounce there is corrective..its trouble OR
-we don't bounce ..even more trouble..break of 4300 wd confirm that.
It 'she' get a strong reversal but the signals/model and tape read 'doubt it'...and into CLOSE I where the ALGO's often break perfect patterns.
And Another Market Watch comedy hour
02:37 What’s fueling consumers’ ‘surprising’ spending power? Refinanced mortgages play a role, NY Fed says MarketWatch"
Really, no shit Sherlock ..LMFAO ...do they really think most financial readers are THAT STUPID ..apparently they are?! ... FED also find water is wet, and sky is blue ... how much they spent to reach these astounding conclusions isn't indicated.
I named it the HOUSE ATM back in 1999 ....24 years later FED are still USING that policy .(it didn't happen by chance now didn't LOL ..FED CREATED THIS ..how blind are people???) ... only NOW that policy is blowing up in their face ... by DESIGN Of course ..and NEXT they will pretend to no know why, or how ... knowing Matrix will play along and most will buy it ...ike how they 'saved' us at the 2009 lows LOL.
LOL - tiny bid on bonds ..and breathless headline even on perma bear sight about it
- these are NOT the signs that yields have topped ..even if you ignore the reality of what's driving it and just looked at sentiment! ... still daily/hourly almost 100% calls for yields to drop everywhere relentlessly for 2 years ... zero capitulation.
Let me simplify the above rant in terms even the FED and Barrons can understand
- rates are rising due to Asset bubbles
- rates won't fall until the bubble pop
This is why I said 2 years ago they are 'boxed in' - its simple ..in last 2 years have stocks risen? nope ..have bonds yields risen relentlessly ..yep.
The more FED and Govt spend ..worse it gets ..more yields rise
The longer it takes to pop the house/stocks bubbles ..the more yield rise.
Oh - you want yields to drop? then pick ..stop Govt spending and crash economy that way, or allow asset bubbles to pop and crash it that way. Oh and the longer it takes, the worse it will be, as your starting from higher and higher rates and longer and longer for masses to pull horns in due to the 'wealth effect'.
Have fun :-)
( the more complex 'box' I explained is understanding the global situation - K position - and commodities and 'inflation' effect ..but amounts to same as above).
DENIALISM - I saw an article in Barons title along lines of "Household Wealth has taken off - FED data shows' ... if you read it, its sums up that reality is the EXACT OPPOSITE of the title..classic NLP Narrative programming via headline ...bury the truth.
- the implication is 'has taken off' is current time frame - this is FALSE.
- the data is referring tot the 2019-2021 latest FED induced + Biden Induced HOUSING and STOCK BUBBLES!!!!! ... that's also what apparently 'wealth' means - real income have barely risen and the claims are false on that too ..using statistical selection to paint false picture ..like how unemployment ignores those who give up looking ...and income data ignores many things.
So, I mean, DUH! When you blow up a massive ASSET BUBBLE ..aka 1995-2000, 2003-2007 and 2019-2021 ... ASSETS RISE and you call it 'wealth' .... it's NOT SAVINGS, it's NOT INCOMES ..or anything REAL ... but headline of course paints the narrative being sold,
then 'analysis' is
- this explains why the economy is 'so robost' ..do I laugh or cry here???? for those that remember ENRON ...its the same 'logic' except of course its DELIBERATE DISINFORMATION to setup masses as usual.
>>The level of ORWELLIAN MINISTIRY of TRUTH b.s. like this on economy is at new level this year.
The biggest joke here is
A. the FED DATA ..really? the FED CREATED the F'in bubble ..they would know!! LMFAO
B . RATES aren't going to FALL until the ASSET bubbles COLLAPSE ..that's how it works Duh doh! and this is why ... 'household' FEEL WEALTHY and keep spending beyond means as I've said, because they think they have these assets ...but is a mirage ...obviously...
So the whole basis is always the same 'as long as we remain in biggest bubble of all time and it always goes up and never down ...we're fine '.... yep, that's some SMART 'analysis' Barrons ...hope you paid them the big bucks for that...and 'way to learn from 2000 and 2007'.
Of course, its as said disinformation plain and simple ..but I'd just thought I'd point it out.
What is doubly bad in 2023 unlike 2000 and 2007, as I've said for 2 years, is those were in a DININFLATIONARY K-Winter ..now were in REFLATIONARY K-spring ( albeit a Frankenstein version with K-winter lag on Assets still to play out) ..... good luck getting rates to drop and commodities to come down without that 'wealth' aka assets bubbles collapsing ... as I've noted the masses are NOT pulling back ...and indeed this is the answer ... congrats' the the FED and BIDEN Admin for proving 1+1=2 yet again. - someone get them the Nobel Prize for economics ..even about the level of that award these days. :-)
My gut tells me this is the ending Diagonal 5th wave beginning on SPX. If so, my only question is does it take out the July high (4,607) and top-out after or truncate and fall short of that high
It 'she' be ... if all else where 'equal' .. we shall see .. I have feeling it might need one more drop ...but still cd then get 5th ..but I believe it will truncate ..based on the model ..similar to top in 2021/2022 very strong model rhyme here
Thanks Mark - I Love it when you ramble - I get very clear pictures when you do!
You must get a lot of clarity then :-) .. what's that song,, the Rambling man LOL
TUe Oct 17 - Tangled Web 'they' Weave here.
This is as said going to be 'complex' here ... my best 'guess' is this is now 'c' up, of a C of an ABC bounce...where the C is a-b-c ... .. so as I said, THIS leg she be the strongest ..or at least most pesistent leg (albeit from a gap down on comp) ....
btm line - today will tell me a lot ...how much strength ...etc ..my suspicious is we run some stops just above then reverse again ...and then top out ...but it could be slow or fast ... or I cd be 'wrong' as we morph into an even more complex pattern ... or I'm even more wrong and this is 1 up of Ending Diagonal 5th ..I can't rule that out ... YET ...but as I've gone over ... my 'feeling is' the ENTROPY of the market won't support that ... that's more discussion than I can put in these comments ...next video maybe.
BONDS are one reason I talked about ..they again broke back up fast here ... not a good sign ..maybe they will now base again..which has been pattern before going higher ..but as said, I do 'feel' we are close to a blow off on TNX ...waiting on 'something' ...pretty easy to see what! ..likely a ground offensive - commodity panic - bond blow off type thing
DOLLAR - dropping in also A-B- now C down type pattern ..one more up to come? panic into dollar safety as near term IT top maybe?
AS I said - Let market tell me here...too many patterns ..not enough conclusive model data or probabilities ....but you know my 'leanings' here :-)
FYI - that LQ signal I went over at weekend CROSSED DOWN today ..that is a very negative development ... I see very strong rhyme to OCt-Nov 2021 here on Wave pattern and many models.
^ current bounce up is AMAZINGLY like Dec 2021 infact ...looked at price & models...if so..we drop hard soon ...then bounce hard in the '5th' of sorts ..but it will be heavilty truncated ( see Dec 2021 for guide) ...then back down even harder....just a possible road map ..won't match exactly ..but literally everything I look at says we are in a similar topping period here ....can play out many ways of course ... but I lean the Entropy is increasing (DISORDER of the system) so it will get harder and harder to reach 'targets' and 'natural pattern completion' the long it takes here...as exogenous events take hold
* on comp I would use Jan 2022 .... but rhymes on indexes to that period is the point
CRB pattern is also very bad news ...looks like we erither in shallow correcitve of the cycle up move OR more likely need another new high!!! ..WOW!!
HEADS UP - BONDS!!
I have been looking over the TNX/TLT wave patterns ..which have played out perfectly for the last 18 months to count I gave..
- we 'shd' now be in final 5th ...of like first Leg UP of SECULAR BULL in yields ( to make it clearer, thanks Tim )
- we are likely in end of 3 of 5 ...or 4 of 5 ...hard to tell without a bit more next week or so
BUT - looking at model as well - there is a chance ..this is beginning of a 3 of 3 of 5 ..
- put another way , this is likely MAX RISK area for a BLOW OFF PANIC in bonds ..and overshoot to my long standing target of 50-55 area on TNX
This would likely only happen in ONE SCENARIO - mass selling by FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS and INSIDERS .... but why? ...well, see all my comments over last 2 years on why this move would happen - the BOX, the financial system setup ...the FED actions (or inaction) etc
So I am watching VERY CLOSELY the next 1-2 weeks here ... to tell exactly where I believe we are....
- if its 4 of 5 ..we base/pullback mostly SIDEWAYS for WEEK or SO
- if its still 3 ..bu not 3 of 3 ...we make new highs on YIELDS ..say TNX Into 50-52 area
- but if we SURGE .. up ..RISK RISING of that 3 of 3 panic ...and that would off course be vert serious ... no point going over it all again unless I see the pattern.
- if we pullback ...I she add ..likely still 4...just a flight to safety.
" Fed’s Barkin sees ‘plausible story’ that slowing economy is working to bring inflation back to 2% target MarketWatch"
Read my comment yesterday - I don't even know how to comment on that 'gas lighting'. Why is this guy being sent out to say something so idiotic ? ... FED beginning to lose control of Bond market???? could be honestly ..there is not ZERO RISK of BLACK SWAN here..
The joke - even if inflation did drop under 2% due to 'slowing economy' - the economy would still go off a cliff because 80% of people are slowly drowning from current price ...they would still be RISING LOL ... it seems to me 99% people lack questioning ability, and its got worse and I speculate as to why ... but I mean, isn't what I'm pointing out BLINDLINGLY OBVIOUS? ..apparently not to most 'analysts' ... as said, mass detachment from reality syndrome.
FYI and on this
- a WAVE of MASS LAYOFF's in NOW occurring ...I know this for fact..my sources are very good ..and multiple
- Also that as said 80%+ cannot afford to live - rent, pay mortgage, buy food, gas, car payments ..you know the basic things ..not even the other things most are ADDICTED to spending. on due to Matrix ... AND have eaten through savings from the 'big COVID handouts' ..burned through credit cards and carrying sizable growing rollover month to month at highest rates in most experiences ... and are now getting delinquent as exponential rate on anything rerquiring constant payments .... That bit is just starting, give it about 6 months to 'show up on most economic data radar'.
I think this is going to be a bit different to recent recessions - a slow rollover as most are conditioned to keep spending, live another day..short term ....and see the 'hard landing' part will come likely right at END of it ... so a slow grinding roll off a cliff type deal ..UNLESS some events (planned or otherwise' cause a POR
FYI - sorry, to be clear ..that count above is for SPX ... actually a good point here is that COMP and most of indexes - IWM, BKX ...Dow ALL have DIFFERENT COUNTS here .... that's usually an indication of a complex corrective ...and not 'synched'
If we drop back under AM low on DOW and say 4350 on SPX ..the 'c' and C is high odds done...and we'll see then if this impulses down to say ABC complete OR turns into something even more complex!
UNTIL those levels break..we can get mor e upside attemps ..but this does look we poked above ..ran stops and reversed as I indicated likely
MOn Oct 16
This is one of the nuttier gap up and runs i've seen in 23 years ! well, we will see how this all plays out over the week.
ST pattern - its a complex corrective to me ... I wd say here..and its tough call because of high 'insanity factor' .. we either
- take off from here in strong impulse up OR
- if we take out the lows from an hour ago ...we will drop back down in next few sessions to close this AM gap up. .and likely then lower.
short covering from bear hedge funds--maybe?
Definitely a lot of short covering .. I. can't say from who as I don't have that data except for retail.
Thanks for all your input--I am totally lost --been that way since 2008. I guess the millenial hedge funds see a Dow at 100,00 in the future. Of course getting in at 40,00 you got to really believe---me--i will only risk max 20% either way!! I am 70 yrs old--I have given up on 25% gains for any future years My risk tolerance is very weak!! luckily for the last 2 years I have no bond exposure--most financial consutants(i read but don't use))--suggest still--that I should be 50% in bonds!!
Good to hear from you Tim & your comments.
Yes, the 'analysts' have been totally wrong for 2 whole years on bonds, literally calling tops every week and rates will fall - I'll give myself some credit here, I laid out. a year ago why they would be wrong and that rates would reach these levels.
Stocks - it's got tough to use any logic as it's run by AI ALGO's .... Dow 100,000 ...we might see it by 2030 ...if we don't collapse here first, but if we do, next stop is likely Dow 10,000 again LOL
I used you view 2 years ago (I know I did because nobody else looked closely as your analysis at that time) on bonds--thanks so much!! there was some swings but nothing major!! I dont think you changed your view on bonds 2 years ago
Glad it was some help - I haven't changed my view yet but it something I have focused on because I manage mine/wife 401K and looking to park in bonds if/when I think they top ... getting close ..I think, but still risk of a blow off move...once they turn it will be clear. ...it's actually much easier for me to model bonds than stocks ...much less 'b.s.' !
when you say top--my mind says-- say what--then I realize you are talking about yields topping --not the price of bond I get confused. note to self--bond price down --yields up- . stupid me -- always confused on baasic stuff!!
I hear you - it's 'cos in my mind i'm using TNX ...where price dropping = yields falling ...whereas to add confusion say TLT its the opposite!
MY Honest opinion right here - market participants are in total denial/mass delusional psychosis about the future here ... one of biggest 'reality gaps'. = Reality - perceived reality I've seen since I've analyzed markets since 1998 ... that's 25 years not 23 ..my math ain't good I guess LOL
This says nothing about Short term - as I said, let the market tell us here ...but ...its what I've seen before every major market top in my experience ..saw it 2000, 2007 ... just sayin' ..maybe this time reality truly doesn't matter ... grab the popcorn and lets see over the next 1-6 months. :-)
Previous comments - Until Oct 13.... try one thread per month and we'll see how that works.
https://open.substack.com/pub/markdavidson/p/intraday-commentary?r=1ignzj&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&comments=true
Small GAp....UP ..on futures ...think about that ...UP ... if I listed all the risks and things wrong here...it would be long list ... like, oh I don't know ..Israel invasion of Gaza triggering a domino effect start of WWIII ....sheesh..to quote Dustin Hoffman character in 'Wag the Dog' "this is nothing" LOL ....everyone is so used to Every bad thing being saved ..so 'bad=good' they clearly cannot understand when potentially 'bad=bad'.
- this SUMS up what I talked a bit about on the weekend video .I couldn't really pick the words ...its sort of like a TANTRUM / DENIAL / PETULANT - child refusing to change actions ... well, reality is going to be a tough teacher here over the next 12-24 months
I do wonder what has caused this change ... I have to believe it a combination of
- the COVID period
- the massive handouts
- the fake reality bubble that spawned
- social media addiction and fantasy escape of 90%
- perhaps the mass 'dementia' i've talked about
Its definitely different to anything i've seen ... I suspect, it means we headed is a slow but LONGER grind down over next few years
WEEKEND VIDEO UPDATE
https://markdavidson.substack.com/p/weekly-update?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=1ignzj#play
Sadly - wars tend to show up at times like there ..Primary waves in terminals ... 1929-1939 period being the last. I hope we don't see WWIII but its looking more and more like a 'planned Wag the Dog' one is on the cards alas.
I've got a really interesting LQ chart to show you ...have to be a video ..its really sums up my view of our position very nicely .... probably be sunday AM that I have time. But here is snap shot, to be discussed. I backtested it and a pattern on here is very consistent, though, probably not obvious.
https://mark_davidson1-yahoo.tinytake.com/msc/ODgwNTQzNV8yMjIzMjA0NA